da59f7485628b060
Scientific Integrity
Pre-registered hypotheses, locked before testing.
Every forward-looking scientific claim DeepMap AI makes is committed to this registry: JSON-serialized, SHA-256 hashed, anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps to four independent calendar servers: before the experiment runs. Post-hoc tuning is structurally impossible: you cannot move a goalpost that's already on the chain.
80
Locked · awaiting outcome
72
Tested · outcome recorded
31
Withdrawn · preserved
150
Bitcoin-OTS-anchored
Locked · 80 forward tests
These hypotheses have been committed to the registry and anchored to Bitcoin via OpenTimestamps. Their re-evaluation date is the only moment we can update them: and the update will record the literal observed outcome, success or null.
74d15947cc2cbfc8
5f0e5a5c5c9129c0
af5c5286cbeefd6e
c4875d0565f49fe8
Inner-core daily rotation H3: anti-correlates with M7+ EQ rate at lag 30-180d
20260518_inner_core_daily_rotation_h3_ant_4b20eae9
FORWARD 36-month test (lock 2026-05-18, re-eval 2029-05-18). Bendick & Bilham 2017 GRL extension: 6-yr LOD oscillation correlates with global M7+ rate at r ~0.6. We test whether the inner-core differential rotation rate from 0S2 splitting (independent of LOD) shows the SAME anti-correlation at finer…
5587b936412932a4
Slichter mode v2 detection-or-publishable-null after D.1-SPRINT calibration cleanup
20260519_slichter_mode_v2_detection_or_pu_ee86f619
D.1-SPRINT forward test of the Slichter inner-core translational triplet (3.5h / 4.5h / 6.0h periods). Pre-registered prior to running v2 pipeline. Tests Smylie 1992 disputed claim vs Rosat 2005 null. v2 = v1 (today, NULL) plus 3 D.1-SPRINT calibration pieces: (1) Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loadin…
G3 v2 forward test: DM annual modulation in per-station IGETS Delta-g residuals (de-tided + de-atmosphered), NOT in tensor L2 norm
20260520_g3_dm_annual_modulation_per_station_igets_residual
Pre-registered narrow-channel forward test of the G3 DM annual modulation moonshot. The G3 v1 SEED's tensor-L2 backtest produced a single-arm 3.1 sigma aggregate candidate (Lomb-Scargle p=0.001, peak period 440 d, phase offset +47.7 d from June 2) on retro_tensor 2005-2018 (122,712 hourly snaps, sub…
Phase D.5-G10 Solar G-Mode Discovery v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g10_solar_g_mode_disco_06a0397f
FORWARD test of the Phase D.5-G10 Solar G-Mode Discovery moonshot. G10 v1 SEED is cross_physics/solar_gmode_discovery_monitor.py monitoring 5 candidate g-mode periods (3, 6, 9, 12, 24 hr); the v2 backtest restricts to the 3 Garcia 2007 + Provost 2000 + Belkacem 2009 theoretical candidate frequencies…
Phase D.5-G11 Free Inner Core Wobble (FICW) v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g11_free_inner_core_wo_1c7c8b93
FORWARD test of the G11 Free Inner Core Wobble (FICW) discovery detector (Phase D.5 11th moonshot). G11 v1 SEED is cross_physics/free_inner_core_wobble_discovery_monitor.py monitoring five candidate FICW periods (3d/5d/7d/9d/14d); the backtest restricts to the three primary Mathews 1991 + Mathews 20…
Phase D.5-G1 mass tomography correctly classifies 7-of-10 known mass-anomaly sites as ELITE/STRONG with at most 1-of-5 control false positives
20260520_phase_d_5_g1_mass_tomography_cor_51cc427f
Phase D.5-G1 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = at least 7 of 10 documented mass-anomaly sites (California Central Valley + Indo-Gangetic Plain + Greenland + WAIS + Decatur CCS + Yellowstone + Long Valley + Amazon + Sumatra-Andaman + Lake Mead) classify ELITE or STRONG…
Phase D.5-G2 DM compact transit: 5-domain coincidence classifier detects >=80% of simulated transits at SNR>=5 with FPR<=5%
20260520_phase_d_5_g2_dm_compact_transit__23320a39
FORWARD test of the Phase D.5-G2 v2 backtest harness (scripts/backtest_g2_dm_compact_transit.py). G2 is the second of three Phase D.5 moonshots (companion to G1 Mass Tomography + G3 DM Annual Modulation). Test: 50 simulated transit injections at coincidence_score >= 5.0 (18 PBH + 18 strangelet + 1…
Phase D.5-G3 dark matter annual modulation Lomb-Scargle peak amplitude exceeds bootstrap null at p<=0.05 with DAMA-consistent period and phase
20260520_phase_d_5_g3_dark_matter_annual__cb491996
Phase D.5-G3 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = ALL three arms succeed: (a) Lomb-Scargle peak period within 300-440 days, (b) peak phase within +/- 60 days of June 2 (DAMA canonical day-of-year 152.5 per Drukier-Spergel 1986), AND (c) bootstrap p-value <= 0.05 from >= …
Phase D.5-G4 LOD anomaly detector classifies >=4 of 6 known historical LOD anomaly events as ELEVATED/ANOMALY with <=2 FP across 50 quiet controls
20260520_phase_d_5_g4_lod_anomaly_detecto_5a4d8ecb
Phase D.5-G4 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = BOTH arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 6 known LOD anomaly events (1992 El Nino peak +1.8ms, 1997-98 El Nino extreme +0.8ms, 2003 Mar acceleration +1.0ms, 2010 Maule M8.8 -1.26ms post-event step, 2020 Mar unexplained +1.5ms, 2024 …
Phase D.5-G5 inner-core wandering detector reproduces Yang & Song 2023 2009 pause/reverse
20260520_phase_d_5_g5_inner_core_wanderin_465c519d
FORWARD test of the G5 inner-core wandering detector (Phase D.5 5th moonshot). G5 v1 SEED is cross_physics/inner_core_wandering_monitor.py; v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g5_inner_core_wandering.py. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) anomaly_flag fires at least one wander event in the…
Phase D.5-G6 earth mass redistribution detector reproduces 4 known mass events
20260520_phase_d_5_g6_earth_mass_redistri_e839f743
FORWARD test of the G6 Earth mass redistribution detector (Phase D.5 6th moonshot). G6 v1 SEED is cross_physics/earth_mass_redistribution_monitor.py; v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g6_earth_mass_redistribution.py. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) anomaly_flag fires within plus or mi…
8c24484f2916d437
Phase D.5-G8 Pre-EQ Free-Oscillation Excitation v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g8_pre_eq_free_oscilla_66d783af
FORWARD test of the G8 Pre-Earthquake Free-Oscillation Excitation detector (Phase D.5 8th moonshot). G8 v1 SEED is cross_physics/pre_eq_free_oscillation_excitation_monitor.py monitoring six modes (0S0/0S2/0T2/1S0/0S3/0S4); the backtest restricts to the three primary spheroidal modes 0S2/0T2/0S3 per …
aa8e94271849ae74
Wahr 1981 l=4 admixture v3.1 -- first-ever measurement with proper Y_4^2 basis + 5y IGETS + D.1-SPRINT corrections
20260520_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v3_1_fir_7b08afb9
D.1-SPRINT v3.1 forward test for first-ever planetary l=4 admixture measurement. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-19. Two outcomes: (1) Y_4^2 basis + 24-station IGETS + D.1-SPRINT corrections produces fit consistent with Wahr 1981 prediction at 2sigma -- first-ever planetary l=4 measurement paper (JG…
Cascadia SSE ae_index_1h precursor forward replication: +z >= 3 at lag -105h on new Cascadia ETS 2026-05-22 to 2028-05-22
20260522_cascadia_sse_ae_index_1h_precurs_79517a3b
FORWARD replication test of the May 22 2026 v3 hypothesis-generating finding (parent hypothesis 20260522_sse_piezo_electromagnetic_precur_682c9ac6 recorded as DISCONFIRMING at the global level). PARENT v3 result on Cascadia regional split (45 documented SSEs 2005-2018 from Wech-Bartlow PNSN catalog…
MARS-A10: Asteroid-mass PBH (10^17 to 10^23 g) transits through Earth produce a 5-domain coincidence signature (gravimeter step + magnetometer pulse + accelerometer transient + seismic blast + atmospheric IR pulse) at synchronized timestamps across >= 3 of 5 domain detectors at SNR >= 5 each. Detection or upper-bound rate < 10 per year (matches Apr 25 v1.2 bounds) over 540-day forward window.
20260526_mars_a10_asteroid_mass_pbh_10_17_0044dfc0
Asteroid-mass PBH transit search (E-1 from Apr 23 2026 brainstorm, partially active per memory/pbh_moonshot.md). 5-domain coincidence filter leveraging 18 of 27 VQ instruments -- nobody else can run this search. Apr 25 v1.2 produced upper bound <=8.4/yr; v1.3 audit Apr 28 showed null degenerate at v…
MARS-A11: If a galactic supernova within <=50 kpc occurs in the forward window, neutrino burst (Super-K SN-alert via GCN Kafka) triggers concurrent search at IRIS FDSN seismic stations + IGETS gravimeter for any M3+ earthquake within +-48h x +-1000km. Detection if any M3+ EQ correlates at p<0.001 across both physics channels; null otherwise. Supernova has approximately 1-3pct probability per year per Adams 2013; null result publishable as no evidence for SN-neutrino-EQ correlation if no SN occurs OR if SN occurs but no triggered EQs.
20260526_mars_a11_if_a_galactic_supernova_7a312ff9
Forward-going 730-day window neutrino-supernova-EQ correlation test. Extension of Fischbach 1986 disconfirmation (Phase 65p Apr 19 2026 null at p=0.30 over 14 M7+ events on real IceCube Gold/Bronze archive) to the supernova-burst regime where neutrino flux is 10^58 vs IceCube standard astrophysical …
6a00e78c0e517126
MARS-A3: Multi-year secular gravity drift at IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter stations within 500 km of known mantle plume / hot-spot locations exceeds tectonically quiet reference stations by ratio >= 3.0 on 2009-2026 cohort
20260526_mars_a3_multi_year_secular_gravi_382dfdca
Mars-shot codename MARS-A3 of the Six Science Mars-Shots phased program (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). Tests whether mantle plume / hot-spot proximity (10 known plume sites: Hawaii, Iceland, Galapagos, Yellowstone, Afar, Bouvet, Canary Islands, Reunion, Tahiti, East African Rift) imprints a detectable secular…
MARS-A4: Solar helio-tomography via global IGETS SG array - 24-station coherent stacked PSD in 0.1-1000 nHz band over 36-month forward window 2026-05-27 to 2029-05-27 detects spectral peaks at solar gravitational modulation frequencies (11-yr cycle ~3 nHz, 27-day solar rotation ~430 nHz, solar g-mode candidates 100-300 nHz) with SNR >=3 across >=6 stations after Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading + Path A FES2014b BLQ + ICET solid-Earth tide corrections
20260526_mars_a4_solar_helio_tomography_v_18290950
Mars-shot codename MARS-A4 (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). MOST AMBITIOUS of the 6 shots - planet-scale passive solar observatory via 24-station IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network. Sub-microhertz signal detection requires sqrt(t) SNR growth from coherent stacking; 36-month integration gives 6x SNR boost …
9b8ef0eeb16bd97d
40e76486aec6d2d4
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MARS-A8: Inner-core rotation rate timeseries 2009-2026 derived from coherent-stack 0S2 multiplet asymmetry at 25 IGETS SG stations (Phase D.0 expansion) shows sub-decadal 0.5-3yr oscillation with Lomb-Scargle peak power exceeding 1000-perm null shuffle at z >= 3 in the bundle-36-replication held-out subset 2017-2026 (post fit on 2009-2016). Tests Yang and Song 2023 Nature finding that inner-core rotation reversed in 2009-2010. Reproduction with independent network -- we use EOST-only L2 IGETS; they used Alaska earthquake waveforms.
20260526_mars_a8_inner_core_rotation_rate_d5223b4b
Independent reproduction of Yang and Song 2023 Nature 622:734 inner-core rotation reversal. Train on 2009-2016 (matches Phase D.1-A6-CLOSE Track C v3 setup), validate held-out on 2017-2026. Uses EOST-only IGETS L2 with M2/S2/N2 calibration corrections per Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE Bug 2 fix (May 18 202…
MARS-A9: For any M9+ earthquake occurring 2026-05-26 through 2027-05-26, prompt gravity signature (Vallee 2017 + Juhel 2018) is detected at SNR >= 3 across >= 2 of (a) IGETS SG within 1000km of epicenter, (b) co-incident LVK gravitational-wave detector noise residual within +-100s of rupture origin, (c) Phase 65p gw_newtonian_precursor tensor channel. NULL if no M9+ events occur in window; CONFIRMED if M9+ event detected with multi-channel agreement; ARTIFACT if single-channel signal only.
20260526_mars_a9_for_any_m9_earthquake_oc_e2c835b6
Forward-going 365-day window prompt-gravity coincidence test at M9+ rupture class. Extends Phase 65p gw_newtonian_precursor (Vallee 2017 / Juhel 2018) to NEW LVK Run 5 era (begins late 2026). Honest prior: M9+ events have ~10pct/yr base rate so window may yield zero detection (publishable null). Exi…
4a401c9a906930e6
MARS-BSA-DISTGRAV: A 100-well BSA pressure-cycling array, with each well instrumented with a CG-5 (or better) wellhead gravimeter and a documented coherence efficiency epsilon in [0.5, 0.9] depending on formation type, achieves a coherent-stack SNR boost >= 0.95 * sqrt(N * epsilon) -- meaning the empirical SNR curve from N=1 to N=100 obeys the theoretical sqrt(N) array-gain law within 5% over a 365-day operational window. Treats BSA wells THEMSELVES as a distributed gravimeter array, filling the IGETS coverage gap (25 stations globally, ~0 of BSA pilot sites within 500 km).
20260526_mars_bsa_distgrav_a_100_well_bsa_f7b6b038
v0.1 first-run synthetic 4-well coherence demo recovered true_slope=0.10 uGal/MPa as stacked_mean=0.104 +- 0.0094 (SE), giving snr_of_stacked_mean=11.1 and coherence_metric=0.787 (STRONG). SNR-vs-N curve generated from N=1 to N=100, matching sqrt(N) law within 5% on synthetic data. Module cross_phys…
MARS-EARTH-CAVENDISH Newton G from 25-station IGETS lunar tidal response with free oscillation cross-validation
20260526_mars_earth_cavendish_newton_g_fr_daa12be5
MARS-EARTH-CAVENDISH: Using the 25-station IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network's lunar tidal gravity response (M2 + S2 + N2 + K1 + O1 constituents) combined with free oscillation amplitudes (0S2 + 1S0 + 0T2 from Phase 65aa modules) over the 17-year archive 2009-2026, after Hinderer 1995 atmosph…
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7a3ebc4d1b5ba822
543290caa24e1b3b
be18fc0ac6e52f4b
7f5676cd9fe5bcc8
a7e31e4087aed71f
279e82128e0067c5
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f5875e43ed514eb7
Ambient-noise inner-core differential motion via the BC-DF differential of through-globe Green's functions
20260623_ambient_noise_inner_core_differe_868fb110
PRE-REGISTRATION -- independent ambient-noise test of inner-core differential motion. BACKGROUND. The inner-core differential-rotation debate (Yang & Song 2023; Vidale; Tkalcic) rests almost entirely on repeating-earthquake DOUBLET PKIKP(df)-PKPbc differential traveltimes, criticised for sparse, un…
Dogma A: operational EQ forecasts carry skill over ETAS + regional base-rate baselines (12-month held-out forward test)
20260701_dogma_a_operational_eq_forecasts_13b7ef38
DOGMA A -- the consensus that operational earthquake forecasting adds no skill over a random/ETAS/base-rate model. Pre-registered FORWARD HELD-OUT test: DeepMap AI's operational EQ forecast stream (convergence_gate + tensor_eq_per_region + tensor_eq_global probabilities in the hash-chained ledger) b…
a2fa3ef7b9564030
171f68f8027cbb33
e2ad8f42edcedc07
5c395ecd4fd00d46
924679cb14f82772
Pine Valley barometric disentangle: east faults vs east non-faults (fault-venting vs regional confound)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_disentang_bed7b5e8
PRE-REGISTRATION -- GENUINELY BLIND: the two east-fault boxes' (Moab 38.57/-109.55, Lisbon Valley 38.15/-109.30) barometric response has NEVER been measured; their GOES cloud series is built AFTER this lock. Follows the #2 barometric PASS whose west/east confound (escalante flat WEST control tied th…
Pine Valley barometric-pumping cloud response (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_pumping_c_5d6c8b00
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = excess (fault beta - mean control beta) < 0 AND block-bootstrap p<=0.05. Low pressure eases fault confinement -> extra venting;…
Pine Valley fortnightly/spring-neap cloud modulation (threshold-tidal fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_fortnightly_spring_n_b97d3ad8
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault spring-neap p<=0.05 AND fault spring-neap snr > max control snr. Resolves the M2 null: a threshold-triggered fault releas…
Pine Valley seasonal hydrologic-loading lagged venting (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seasonal_hydrologic__e82c2420
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault peak-lagcorr > every control AND phase-randomised p<=0.05. Interannual loading anomaly -> lagged venting anomaly, fault-a…
Pine Valley seismic dynamic-triggering venting burst (superposed-epoch, fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seismic_dynamic_trig_300290ad
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault post-event (0-3d) minus pre-event (-7..-1d) excess p<=0.05 AND fault excess > max control excess. Earthquakes transiently…
v2 Dynamic magnitude evaluator (Poisson-Gutenberg-Richter band) beats the tier-lookup band on out-of-sample calibration of the largest observed event
20260723_v2_dynamic_magnitude_evaluator_p_d9bd832d
DYNAMIC MAGNITUDE EVALUATOR v2 -- shadow test. Supersedes 20260723_dynamic_magnitude_evaluator_pois_ed6a2456, withdrawn as an INVALID test (object mismatch + unit-of-analysis error), not a failed one, before it ran. WHAT CHANGED FROM v1, AND ONLY THIS v1 scored "fraction of matched OBSERVATIONS ins…
Telluric geoelectric anomaly as an M5.0+ earthquake precursor: skill over regional base rate (forward held-out, SHADOW)
20260804_telluric_geoelectric_anomaly_as__c7b40244
Measurable version of the electricity-shapes-geology thread (Isaac): does a telluric/geoelectric anomaly precede M5.0+ EQs beyond the regional base rate? Legitimate seismo-EM / VAN SES territory, NOT Electric-Universe cosmology. SHADOW forward test on the existing telluric_current_monitor + predicti…
0c33596fcefa8f13
ETAS underperformance v1: do our aftershock modules score below their own reference ETAS?
20260808_etas_underperformance_v1_do_our__0448fa93
Forward-only. CALIBRATION GATE RUNS FIRST: if the reference count ratio is outside [0.5,2.0] for BOTH bracket bounds the verdict is REFERENCE_MISCALIBRATED and NO claim about the module is made -- the test can void itself by design. Otherwise: below the bracket LOWER bound at p<=0.01 = MODULE_UNDERP…
Risk-score DELTA carries earthquake timing information (v1)
20260808_risk_score_delta_carries_earthqu_95c82071
Forward-only: events AFTER the lock timestamp. The 180d exploratory window that motivated this is excluded and cannot contribute. PASS requires ALL FOUR: n>=300 isolated events, diff>=+0.50 points, p<=0.01 vs C1 AND C3, not worse than C2 (ETAS). 3 of 4 is a FAIL. Threshold 0.01 not 0.05 because the …
6ca42a5e4a8d6dd5
7786166cab1eaeab
Swarm-continuation band beats an equal-width G-R baseline
20260812_swarm_continuation_band_beats_an_faaeea4e
Forward-only from 2026-08-12. Pinnacles CA M3.9 (2026-08-11) motivated this and is EXCLUDED. Equal-width baseline: a wider band trivially wins, so the baseline gets our width and optimal placement. Secondary claim graded separately: upper bound biased LOW (exceedance above hi > shortfall below lo) -…
VQ45 v2 virtual anisotropy field SKS multi-event stacked splitting reproducibility
20260814_vq45_v2_virtual_anisotropy_field_78cf499d
VQ#45 v2 Virtual Anisotropy Field, SKS Silver-Chan splitting. FORWARD RE-ISSUE after v1 (ffb62804) was graded DISCONFIRMING: 43% of 23 stations within 25 deg (bar 0.50), median delay error 0.83 s (bar 0.70). This is a NEW entry, never a re-grade of ffb62804 -- the method changed, so the old seal mus…
VQ46 BAR-S1b virtual sonic log HVSR interface recovery vs KiK-net PS logging
20260814_vq46_bar_s1b_virtual_sonic_log_h_97c36f9b
VQ#46 Virtual Sonic Log, BAR-S1b. FORWARD RE-ISSUE after FORGE BAR-S1 FAILED TWICE. The failed bars stand as recorded; this is a new entry on a new corpus, never a re-grade. WHY FORGE WAS ILL-POSED: the DSI log in well 58-32 is BLIND ABOVE 657 m, so its 'strongest contrast at 1050 m' was strongest o…
v2: MARS-A2 0S0 fundamental whole-Earth radial mode at ~813.92 uHz detected at p<0.001 (50k block bootstrap) at >=5 of 24 IGETS SG stations via 2009-2026 multi-window coherent stack
20260822_v2_mars_a2_0s0_fundamental_whole_e3fdca22
Replaces withdrawn v1 20260526_mars_a2_0s0_fundamental_whole_ea_1b0bbb26 (withdrawn 2026-08-22: untestable as registered -- the stack+bootstrap instrument was never built; lock-time-readability lesson applied here as an explicit instrument-readiness gate in test.extra). Same scientific question: doe…
v3: paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost (Poisson gate on measured baselines) -- paired predictions match rate >=2x unpaired baseline
20260822_v3_paired_megafault_paleoseismic_86677bbd
Replaces withdrawn v2 20260521_v2_paired_megafault_paleoseismic_70095bae. V2 DIAGNOSIS CORRECTED BY MEASUREMENT (91-day autopsy, daily rolling 7d M3+ counts vs the monitor own ComCat feed): the hardcoded historical_rate_per_month constants were 7-9x too high (cascadia median 1.0/7d vs assumed 7.0; u…
Slichter 1S1 search v5 (DAMPED-ONLY): matched Lorentzian filter + Q-dependent whitening + onset scan -- the first Q-aware bound
20260823_slichter_1s1_search_v5_damped_on_841f9f76
v4's damped tier was UNRESOLVED in all 15 cells because block-median whitening eats a damped mode's line width (HWHM 0.372 whitening blocks at Q=500) and a persistent single-bin filter mismatches a Lorentzian at a penalty scaling ~Q instead of ~sqrt(Q). BOTH fixes were validated on synthetic injecti…
GNSS Green's-function matched filter detects distributed pre-event slip on subduction updip-dense margins (forward)
20260824_gnss_green_s_function_matched_fi_4da88a9d
ADOPTED method (trackAS). Frozen g = unit thrust slip on Slab2 locked/updip zone via Okada 1985 (validated 2.7e-4 vs screw-dislocation analytic), computed BEFORE pre-event data. MF = sum(g.d/sigma^2)/sqrt(sum|g|^2/sigma^2) ~ N(0,1) under noise. Gates: must recover Cascadia SSE + return chance on Rid…
GNSS distributed trenchward-rate precursor (trackAQ forward test)
20260826_gnss_distributed_trenchward_rate_378219d7
The one precursor channel with a passing positive control (trackAQ): coherent trenchward network GNSS transient over a subduction updip zone before a great EQ. Records only (no ledger, no alarm). Full frozen spec + provenance in the draft. Positive controls (Iquique 2014, Cascadia ETS) pass; Ridgecr…
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_1084ce55
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_813fc905
20260903_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_01fea7ac
20260904_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_2a4273ed
b8945ead467543bf
400d4c77e030585d
d78cefffa24e6b6b
Tested · 72 outcomes recorded
Hypotheses where the forward window has closed and the literal observed result has been recorded. Both confirmatory and null outcomes are preserved here: we publish nulls.
Lowering expected_mag_min to 2.5 for iceland/azores/newberry/ukraine raises hit rate in those 4 regions from 0% to >30% over 90d without degrading global rate
20260504_lowering_expected_mag_min_to_2_5_5039cbab
confirming · 2026-08-11
9283187e030940a0
disconfirming · 2026-08-24
Predicted magnitude has negative L1 coefficient against match outcome on EQ predictions over next 90d (replicates 2026-05-04 reverse-causal finding)
20260504_predicted_magnitude_has_negative_247ccebf
disconfirming · 2026-11-04
d0131f86634ec20a
disconfirming · 2026-09-14
8837ca2394016a3c
disconfirming · 2026-09-14
544ebcc1f96d5acc
disconfirming · 2026-08-24
ae1bd2aaf11f96a1
disconfirming · 2026-05-18
Slichter mode v4 — methods-clean null with 24-station coherent stack + matched-filter detection
20260520_slichter_mode_v4_methods_clean_n_5af2ca52
disconfirming · 2026-05-20
Wahr 1981 l=4 admixture v4 forward test: OSO Path A BLQ + Hinderer v2 literature beta tightens CI while excluding +0.7%
20260521_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v4_forwa_a6ae7dc5
disconfirming · 2026-05-26
7a73faf3e28f25a8
confirming · 2026-08-22
8961935d72a6fe3a
disconfirming · 2026-05-22
Slichter 5.40h triplet replicates across independent data splits
20260607_slichter_5_40h_triplet_replicate_38bc5632
disconfirming · 2026-06-07
Tidal fault-criticality predicts failure (held-out 2005-14 to 2015-18)
20260607_tidal_fault_criticality_predicts_5e1c6d12
disconfirming · 2026-06-07
0e857f92522dec47
disconfirming · 2026-06-09
2aaa3f680aa6b433
disconfirming · 2026-06-09
EMTF resistivity discriminates fluid-rich vs stable crust
20260609_emtf_resistivity_discriminates_f_3d4ddf91
disconfirming · 2026-06-09
fa4a1857b9583636
disconfirming · 2026-06-09
5644241fadb2e4a8
disconfirming · 2026-08-24
1a3a745c6f6f4952
confirming · 2026-07-05
ef5f72058a86813d
disconfirming · 2026-07-05
VQ31 virtual creepmeter v0.1 GNSS+InSAR vs Parkfield UL creepmeters
20260708_vq31_virtual_creepmeter_v0_1_gns_ae525a54
confirming · 2026-07-08
567e9f70b4233f6c
disconfirming · 2026-07-08
5b163fa96d7258f6
disconfirming · 2026-07-08
VQ34 virtual geothermometer beats IDW on held-out heat-flow wells
20260708_vq34_virtual_geothermometer_beat_b380f98d
disconfirming · 2026-07-08
VQ34v2 geothermometer beats IDW on QC-capped heat-flow wells
20260708_vq34v2_geothermometer_beats_idw__81af9a0b
disconfirming · 2026-07-08
VQ41 lunar tidal quake gauge predicts held-out Apollo deep moonquakes
20260709_vq41_lunar_tidal_quake_gauge_pre_ee6ba102
confirming · 2026-07-09
e56756cf5da47baa
confirming · 2026-07-13
v2 imminent_convergence_72h SHADOW forward test: >=70% hit rate
20260712_v2_imminent_convergence_72h_shad_a3f748c7
disconfirming · 2026-10-16
e806485f5294a145
disconfirming · 2026-08-16
VQ42 Virtual Moho Gauge: H-k receiver-function crustal thickness vs CRUST1.0
20260713_vq42_virtual_moho_gauge_h_k_rece_80e2b823
disconfirming · 2026-07-13
vq43 virtual single-station Mw gauge Brune spectral moment reproducibility
20260713_vq43_virtual_single_station_mw_g_5bfdd766
confirming · 2026-07-13
vq45 virtual anisotropy field SKS shear-wave splitting reproducibility
20260713_vq45_virtual_anisotropy_field_sk_ffb62804
disconfirming · 2026-07-13
Pine Valley barometric-pumping cloud response (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_pumping_c_5d6c8b00
confirming · 2026-07-14
Pine Valley fortnightly/spring-neap cloud modulation (threshold-tidal fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_fortnightly_spring_n_b97d3ad8
disconfirming · 2026-07-14
Pine Valley M2 lunar-tidal cloud modulation (fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_m2_lunar_tidal_cloud_b26f1d93
disconfirming · 2026-07-14
Pine Valley seasonal hydrologic-loading lagged venting (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seasonal_hydrologic__e82c2420
disconfirming · 2026-07-14
Pine Valley seismic dynamic-triggering venting burst (superposed-epoch, fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seismic_dynamic_trig_300290ad
disconfirming · 2026-07-14
UT+NV fault-venting flatter summer diurnal cloud cycle vs matched flat-basin controls
20260714_ut_nv_fault_venting_flatter_summ_4e5e8a1c
disconfirming · 2026-07-15
aa862cfbf81a390b
disconfirming · 2026-08-26
Escalation-signature scale invariance M4 vs M5 plus (US)
20260715_escalation_signature_scale_invar_3a64d89f
confirming · 2026-07-15
32a9c67c770fc9dd
disconfirming · 2026-07-15
Magnitude-scaled forecast window raises M6+ hit rate without moving the M<6 bulk
20260716_magnitude_scaled_forecast_window_fb872e19
disconfirming · 2026-09-02
ETAS-derived per-region probability beats the incumbent tensor_eq_per_region classifier on a temporal holdout
20260719_etas_derived_per_region_probabil_0ad8c552
disconfirming · 2026-07-20
Tensor adds magnitude information on top of ETAS beyond a recalibrated b-value
20260719_tensor_adds_magnitude_informatio_3b3bf3bc
disconfirming · 2026-07-19
chile_peru ETAS 7-day probability retains AUC >= 0.60 on held-out 2019-2026
20260720_chile_peru_etas_7_day_probabilit_0aa760c4
disconfirming · 2026-07-20
5871865aa5b17875
disconfirming · 2026-08-26
59d98e836c821d9e
disconfirming · 2026-08-26
1335df77d72ed17f
disconfirming · 2026-10-24
841622a450c24568
disconfirming · 2026-07-25
d37523e9672ca88d
confirming · 2026-08-07
3a0e64739a213982
disconfirming · 2026-11-09
5090ff310f2d1c1d
confirming · 2026-08-07
42f7d708de0cd5da
disconfirming · 2026-08-26
Multi-messenger Arm A: triggered-stack pipeline validation on solar-flare SID/SFE (CoSMoS)
20260807_multi_messenger_arm_a_triggered__18d235db
disconfirming · 2026-08-07
Ultralight scalar-DM oscillating-coupling search v2 + methods addendum: coherent SG-network stack, corrected sealed-criteria implementation (HYP-9feedf7f; SUPERSEDES v1 6affe307)
20260807_ultralight_scalar_dm_oscillating_e252f6bd
disconfirming · 2026-08-07
Antipodal triggering at PKIKP focusing scale: M6.5+ within 200km of a M7.0+ antipode in 30d
20260815_antipodal_triggering_at_pkikp_fo_9982109b
disconfirming · 2026-08-15
c5 wind-projection geometry discriminates wind-fixed signals from shared environmental lines
20260815_c5_wind_projection_geometry_disc_e98eed7d
confirming · 2026-10-16
Coronal-hole high-speed streams elevate the global M6.5+ rate within 48h
20260815_coronal_hole_high_speed_streams__d599a50d
disconfirming · 2026-08-15
Slichter 1S1 triplet search v2 on the piece-3 cleaned IGETS store: sealed matched-filter criterion, detection-candidate or A95 bound
20260822_slichter_1s1_triplet_search_v2_o_9af67bec
disconfirming · 2026-08-22
Slichter 1S1 search v4: the first Q-aware (damped-transient) bound, plus exclusion-radius fix and inverse-variance weighting
20260823_slichter_1s1_search_v4_the_first_84e85c3b
disconfirming · 2026-08-23
Slichter 1S1 triplet search v3: identical v2 instrument on the full-archive store (306 station-years, x2.54) -- pure data upgrade
20260823_slichter_1s1_triplet_search_v3_i_8a6809e7
disconfirming · 2026-08-23
l=4 Wahr-1981 admixture in the M2 gravity tide -- method-frozen reproducible measurement (NULL_BOUND)
20260829_l_4_wahr_1981_admixture_in_the_m_2cb6bcb0
confirming · 2026-08-29
Slichter 1S1 search v6 -- M3-satellite-cleaned store, forward-blind C3 + scored pass
20260829_slichter_1s1_search_v6_m3_satell_b3cd85d5
disconfirming · 2026-08-29
Slichter 1S1 search v7 -- nodal (f,u) M3 forest correction (full re-clean)
20260829_slichter_1s1_search_v7_nodal_f_u_4d21a75a
confirming · 2026-08-29
Slichter 1S1 search v9 -- line-masked kstar (estimator-level fix)
20260829_slichter_1s1_search_v9_line_mask_8579f6b3
confirming · 2026-08-29
DM Magnetic K1 Adjudication v2.4 -- graded oceanic injector + arm (e) spatial vote (closes the v2.3 oceanic false-DM hole)
20260903_dm_magnetic_k1_adjudication_v2_4_cf01e1fb
confirming · 2026-09-04
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v1.3 (memory-only amendment, byte-identical to v1.2 01fea7ac)
20260904_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_2a4273ed
disconfirming · 2026-09-05
ed91e5783282560f
disconfirming · 2026-09-08
8a505f81610f9cf9
disconfirming · 2026-09-13
a19b5b6d44f2c86e
disconfirming · 2026-09-21
c09e35da6f3820fd
disconfirming · 2026-09-26
c6bc8be1c84ebe5e
disconfirming · 2026-09-26
Withdrawn · 31 preserved
Hypotheses withdrawn before the test window closed: typically because the underlying model went silent or the test became untestable as stated. We don't delete withdrawn entries; the OTS proof is preserved alongside the JSON so the audit trail is intact.
cross_physics_earthquake_alert_cycle hit rate stays under 20% in 8 quiet regions (iran/iceland/myanmar_bangladesh/azores/new_zealand/newberry/trans_mexico/ukraine) over next 90d, while global rate stays above 50%
20260504_cross_physics_earthquake_alert_c_ff460a64
Diagnosis revealed cross_physics_earthquake_alert_cycle has been silent since 2026-04-13 (last prediction 21 days ago). The model is NOT actively firing predictions, so the forward-test 'failure persists at <20% over 90d' is untestable -- the rate is undefined when the model emits no predictions. Last-30-day analysis showed 4 of the 8 named regions (iran, myanmar_bangladesh, new_zealand, trans_mexico) are now well-covered by tensor_eq_per_region / earthquake_magnitude_predictor / others. The 4 genuine remaining blind spots (iceland, azores, newberry, ukraine) are low-magnitude volcanic-rift / stable-interior zones where the issue is expected_mag_min floor too high. Re-registering as a per-region magnitude floor intervention hypothesis.
RS+ETAS caldera forecaster HIGH/CRITICAL alerts hit at >=50% over 90-day forward test
20260506_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_high__eb9944b0
INVALID TEST -- the instrument was broken for the entire forward window. fetch_uplift_rate_mm_yr pointed at the retired NGL IGS14 path (404 since the Jun 2026 IGS20 migration; this module was the one of six missed in commit 5ed76bf8), so every uplift fetch silently fell back to the 50 mm/yr literature prior. That froze uplift_mm_yr=50.0 and rs_amp=8.2652 identically across all 66 HIGH/CRITICAL rows -- above the CRITICAL threshold of 5.0 by pure arithmetic, so the forecaster emitted CRITICAL regardless of data. The alerts under test were therefore NOT produced by the deformation-driven RS+ETAS mechanism this hypothesis names. Live GPS (fixed 2026-07-18) gives Campi Flegrei -10.61 mm/yr (subsiding) and rs_amp 0.6388 -> NOMINAL, a 13x overstatement in the alarm-manufacturing direction. The observed ~91-95 pct match rate is further confounded by an always-on alarm against continuous bradyseismic unrest credited by an INGV matcher at minmag=1.5 (requiring M>=3.0 drops it to ~30 pct, M>=4.0 to ~8 pct). Neither passed nor failed: untestable as run. Superseded by a v2 forward test on live deformation with a magnitude floor and a coverage-null bar. Record preserved per Section 7 of the methodological-nulls bundle.
Goldfinger Option #3 paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost lifts paired-prediction match rate by >=2x over unpaired baseline
20260510_goldfinger_option_3_paired_megaf_9e4c90a0
Predictor companion not shipped at lock time -- the cross_physics/paired_megafault_monitor.py module was a tensor-feature builder + run_demo dumper only, with zero log_prediction() call sites and no cron entry. Aug 8 evaluator on 2026-05-21 found paired_n=0 over 17 days of supposed forward window. Re-registered as v2 (20260521_*) once cross_physics/paired_megafault_predictor.py + GATES_BY_MODEL entry + cron land in PR. Underlying Goldfinger 2025 science unchanged; this is a tooling completion.
f5396c7a6f6ace90
3e5b1b45e6afec36
e996e596959088d6
v2: paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost (post-predictor) -- paired predictions match rate >=2x unpaired baseline
20260521_v2_paired_megafault_paleoseismic_70095bae
Sealed withdraw-if clause: paired_n = 0 < 5 over the forward window (2026-05-21 -> 2026-08-19). The predictor ran HOURLY the whole window (cron alive, log verified 2026-08-22: 'scanned 1 pairs, 0 joint-elevated, 0 predictions logged, dry_run=False' every run; ledger hash chain valid) -- so this is branch 1 of the clause, a legitimate scientific null (no joint-elevation events occurred), NOT v1's dead-cron failure. A v3 with a recalibrated elevation gate is optional, not owed.
MARS-A2: 0S0 fundamental whole-Earth radial mode at ~814 µHz period 20.5 min detected at p<0.001 across >=5 of 25 IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter stations using Hanning-window FFT coherent stacking
20260526_mars_a2_0s0_fundamental_whole_ea_1b0bbb26
UNTESTABLE AS REGISTERED at due date (2026-08-24), not disconfirmed -- June-1 precedent. The registered instrument (2009-2026 multi-window coherent stack + 50,000-draw block bootstrap per station, p<0.001, >=5 of 24-25 stations) was never built; it is D.1-SPRINT-scale engineering. The v0.1 proxy script DID run on real data 2026-08-22 (24/24 stations, EOST L2 from data/igets -- the lockfile data_source named a stale path igets_sg_archive -- 60-day most-recent windows, n=86400 min each, peak SNR max 1.26, 0 stations >= SNR 3): recorded as a PRELIMINARY 60-day-window constraint only, explicitly NOT the registered test and NOT the grade. Reissued forward as v2 with an instrument-readiness gate.
c7968974f604e0d2
704b125c3b72db1f
Multi-modal elemental-resonance fingerprint predicts non-radioelement commodity at assay sites
20260616_multi_modal_elemental_resonance__8fdea1d5
UNTESTABLE: positive control failed in both runs (Mike chose fix-declare-rerun-once; outcome rules fixed in hypotheses/deviations/resonance_fingerprint_positive_control_deviation.md before run 2). Run 1 (2026-09-25, HEAD c82b729b): gamma K AUC 0.52, Th 0.44 vs bar 0.70 -- labels pooled sediment K pct with brine K mg/L, gamma supplied only local anomalies, SIP was a constant flagged real. Run 2 (HEAD 14d8d524, declared fixes D1-D4 + Addendum A, 93 eligible sites, inputs sha-verified): absolute NURE K AUC 0.641, Th 0.551 (matched single-layer K 0.696, ungraded) -- still below 0.70. Per the fixed rule: withdraw, no run 3, no main test computed. Airborne NURE gamma at a point does not rank 0.1-deg-cell stream-sediment K/Th across these 93 clustered AOIs well enough to trust the pipeline on commodity targets. Records: reports/validation/resonance_fingerprint_runs/.
36344b6276cb3e28
VQ32 virtual stream gauge from fluvial seismic noise vs co-located NWIS
20260708_vq32_virtual_stream_gauge_from_f_4f88fc9e
Pre-specified underpowered clause: 5 geometric pairs found but UU.LTU gauge (10126180) aligned 0 hours -> 4 surviving pairs < locked minimum 5. Of the 4 that ran, 0 passed -- even RE.EACA at 0.6 km showed raw rho 0.202 collapsing to -0.045 after the pre-stated cubic detrend: the correlation was the shared seasonal runoff trend, exactly what the climatology rule was built to catch. PHYSICS: fluvial seismic noise detections (Burtin 2008) are on large turbulent rivers; small UT/WA/AK creeks (10-100 cfs) do not lift 1-7 Hz power above ambient at 0.6-4 km. A v2 would pair stations with MAJOR rivers (Colorado/Snake/Columbia class) -- separate future registration.
VQ36 stress rosette predicts held-out WSM SHmax azimuth
20260708_vq36_stress_rosette_predicts_hel_2f807511
Pre-specified withdraw clause fired: only 22 A-C WSM sites where input channels are real (3 in UGS gravity-grid box + 19 within 50km of anv_ prewarm sites) vs locked minimum 30 -> UNDERPOWERED. Audit also found stress_orientation_calibration.py READS WSM, so the locked soc_shmax_regional covariate would have been circular (target leakage) and required exclusion regardless. A v2 with NATIONAL covariates (qfault orientation density, focal mechanisms) is a separate future registration.
imminent_convergence_72h forward test: >=70% resolved hit rate
20260712_imminent_convergence_72h_forward_4ec47bcd
Superseded pre-launch, zero data accrued: Mike directed shadow-mode testing before any public exposure, so the tier records to a private shadow ledger (data/imminent_shadow.jsonl) instead of prediction_ledger.db. Re-registered as v2 with the shadow data source + --evaluate USGS scoring; metric, threshold (>=70% at n>=30), and 90-day window unchanged.
27585e75c158abe3
f5ec2eec70af05c1
4e0a57f378fa4551
Fault energy-state stand-down: de-energized regions have a lower subsequent EQ rate than held regions
20260716_fault_energy_state_stand_down_de_25e55634
UNTESTABLE (hypotheses/deviations/fault_energy_standdown_untestable_20261016.md). Withdrawn by Mike's decision 2026-10-21; never graded, neither a pass nor a fail.
v2 RS+ETAS caldera forecaster on LIVE deformation beats the coverage null
20260718_v2_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_on_4fdfbd38
UNTESTABLE on its locked data: zero power at the re-eval (hypotheses/deviations/caldera_v2_zero_power_20261016.md). Withdrawn by Mike's decision 2026-10-21; never graded, neither a pass nor a fail.
v3 24h escalation shadow tier forward test (post decluster fix)
20260719_v3_24h_escalation_shadow_tier_fo_df265de9
Underpowered by instrument, not by hypothesis. Two independent population limits measured 2026-07-22: (1) only 5 percent of global M5+ onsets have >=3 delivering stations within 300 km, and outside that the public M2.5+ catalogue is too sparse for early_features; (2) a train/serve skew -- the calibration was fitted on settled catalogues (37 percent usable) but the tier serves at 24-96h on provisional ones (13 percent usable). Neither permits n=30 by the 2026-10-16 re-evaluation. See reports/methodological_nulls/escalation_tier_population_limits.md
Dynamic magnitude evaluator (Poisson-Gutenberg-Richter band) beats the tier-lookup band on out-of-sample calibration
20260723_dynamic_magnitude_evaluator_pois_ed6a2456
INVALID TEST, not a failed one -- withdrawn before it ran, so nothing is contaminated. The locked primary metric scores 'fraction of matched OBSERVATIONS inside the band', but the locked formula P(Mmax < m) is the CDF of the LARGEST event in the window. Those are different objects. Measured on 120 days of ledger: 12.7 observations per matched prediction (max 542), only 21% with a single observation, and magnitudes spanning M2.5-M8.1 WITHIN one prediction -- a 5.6-magnitude spread. A max-distribution band scored against every aftershock must under-cover, so the incumbent's wide M2.7-8.0 band would have won for a reason unrelated to physics and the FAIL would have been uninterpretable. Scoring per-observation is also a unit-of-analysis error in its own right: 12.7 correlated aftershocks of one sequence are not 12.7 independent tests, which is the exact defect the Jul-18 audit was about. Superseded by v2, which scores the MAXIMUM observed magnitude per prediction -- one score per prediction -- fixing both the object mismatch and the independence problem. Formula, parameter policy, width guard, uninformative condition and withdraw gate all carry over unchanged.
EPC re-evaluation v1: the fixed earthquake_precursor_chain beats per-region GR climatology AND its own date-shuffle null in shadow mode
20260807_epc_re_evaluation_v1_the_fixed_e_e3b22cd2
VOID under the prereg's own section-3 input rule (hypotheses/epc_reevaluation_prereg_v1.md lines 79-80, 167: more than 5% of emissions carrying a live telluric or ionospheric stage voids the run, restart as v2, never silently absorbed). Measured read-only 2026-10-15: 5,282 of 5,525 emissions (95.6%) carry one; the cumulative share passed 5% on 2026-08-09, the run's second day. Decided by the input rule before the earliest evaluation date (2026-11-05); no result is recorded. Interim figures disclosed, not gating: 1,589/4,853 full-magnitude hits (32.7%) vs always-on 31.1%; region-block CI of hit minus climatology [-0.3, +7.4] pts. Records kept (5,525 rows, 146 snapshots); sweep + matching stopped (common/shadow_track_stops.py epc_reeval_v1). Note: hypotheses/deviations/epc_reeval_v1_void_20261015.md; record: reports/validation/shadow_scorecard_20261015.md. Mike approved the cleanup 2026-10-15.
Ultralight scalar-DM oscillating-coupling search in the SG network: coherent global stack + velocity-modulation fingerprint (CoSMoS)
20260807_ultralight_scalar_dm_oscillating_4d41c614
Superseded by v2, 20260807_ultralight_scalar_dm_oscillating_e252f6bd (sealed prereg v2 SHA-256 9feedf7f... + methods addendum bcbe90de..., locked 2026-08-07T02:39:07Z, eight minutes after this lock). v2's lock notes are the supersession record ('SUPERSEDES v1 ... v1 artifacts preserved untouched'). v2 was graded disconfirming on 2026-08-07: NO_CANDIDATE_LIMITS, 0 of the top 50 lines passed the frozen criteria. No result is recorded under v1, and this lock, its sealed doc (6affe307...) and its OTS receipt are kept unchanged. Withdrawn so the due alert stops listing a superseded entry as overdue; Mike's OK 2026-11-08 ('Yes, withdraw it').
c24900b6b48781f8
817b4ebf53d133da
Slichter 1S1 search v9 -- line-masked kstar (estimator-level fix)
20260829_slichter_1s1_search_v9_line_mask_6432d7ef
recorded estimator sha was the Windows CRLF working-copy hash; re-sealing forward-blind with the canonical LF/git sha b4089bce (no scored pass ran -- refused on sha mismatch)
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v0
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_1084ce55
Mike 2026-10-16: superseded. v0 halted at its own gate with 0 bins scored; its byte-identical successor v1.3 (2a4273ed) was graded NULL_BOUND on 2026-09-05. Proposal: reports/hypothesis_grades_20261016/README.md.
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v1 (amendment of v0 1084ce55)
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_75974252
SUPERSEDED BEFORE ANY RUN by v1.1 (scale amendment). Frozen code 261e7de3 as registered would have held a K x 4.6e6 complex matrix per body (~100 GB at the frozen core K ~1,500) and run the exact lock-in on 3,000 bins x every patch for the equivalence gate (~60 h); neither had been exercised at scale (synthetic check ran at K=250 on a 40k-bin local grid). No real Compton bin was ever scored under this entry; its OTS stamp (pending) is kept as history. v1.1 precomputes fine spectra once, interpolates in 200k-bin chunks, and gates equivalence on a 40-patch x 600-bin subset -- same arithmetic, same bars.
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v1.1 (scale amendment; supersedes v1 75974252 and v0 1084ce55)
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_813fc905
Mike 2026-10-16: superseded. v1.1 halted at its injection positive control with 0 real bins scored (untestable as frozen); superseded by v1.3 (2a4273ed, graded NULL_BOUND 2026-09-05).
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v1.2 (differential positive control; supersedes v1.1 813fc905, v1 75974252, v0 1084ce55)
20260903_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_01fea7ac
Mike 2026-10-16: superseded. v1.2 passed both gates, then was out-of-memory killed before scoring; v1.3 (2a4273ed) is byte-identical and graded NULL_BOUND 2026-09-05.
Why pre-registration matters.
Most geophysics findings die in replication. We commit the hypothesis, the threshold, the dataset, and the re-evaluation date to a public registry + Bitcoin chain before running the experiment. When the re-eval date arrives, we record what actually happened, confirmatory or null, and the audit trail is permanent. Read the methodology paper and the null-results bundle for examples of nulls we've already published.
Raw JSON registry → Methodology