These hypotheses have been committed to the registry and anchored to
Bitcoin via OpenTimestamps. Their re-evaluation date is the only
moment we can update them — and the update will record the literal
observed outcome, success or null.
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-08-04
Lowering expected_mag_min to 2.5 for iceland/azores/newberry/ukraine raises hit rate in those 4 regions from 0% to >30% over 90d without degrading global rate
20260504_lowering_expected_mag_min_to_2_5_5039cbab
INTERVENTION hypothesis. Diagnosis 2026-05-04: 4 regions (iceland/azores/newberry/ukraine) have 0% hit rate over 30d on n=23 predictions across all models. All 4 are low-magnitude zones (volcanic-rift or stable-interior) where typical events are M2-4; our default expected_mag_min derived from risk_l…
Threshold:
regional_hit_rate_lift positive 0.3
SHA-256:
696823c64ad6d98ac6c68d81…
Locked:
2026-05-04
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-04
Microseism universal precursor continues to fire at z>=5 for M5+ EQ at -10h, May-Nov 2026
20260504_microseism_universal_precursor_c_99f4c2c7
FORWARD replication of Phase 5 (Apr 25 2026; +19.12sigma post-control on N=7,120 M>=5.5 EQs). This entry pre-registers the hypothesis that the same effect will persist on EVENTS THAT OCCUR BETWEEN 2026-05-04 AND 2026-11-04, evaluated against the live microseism feed. Result will be recorded after No…
Threshold:
z_score positive 5.0
SHA-256:
9283187e030940a076c96e14…
Locked:
2026-05-04
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-08-04
Predicted magnitude has negative L1 coefficient against match outcome on EQ predictions over next 90d (replicates 2026-05-04 reverse-causal finding)
20260504_predicted_magnitude_has_negative_247ccebf
Reverse-causal scan on 2026-05-04 (N=1002 resolved EQ preds) returned predicted_magnitude L1 coef of -1.45, predicted_magnitude_high90 coef of -1.43, with positive coefs on region_ceiling_M (+2.60) and magnitude_min (+1.49). Pattern: predictions claiming larger quakes match LESS often, predictions h…
Threshold:
predicted_magnitude_l1_coefficient negative -0.5
SHA-256:
b300164c4e2a7e06c266212a…
Locked:
2026-05-04
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-12-31
Fault-loaded + depth sweet-spot screening (5-axis) predicts Phase 4 sustained-flow pass rate at Box Elder pilot
20260506_fault_loaded_depth_sweet_spot_sc_1be4724e
FORWARD test of the 5-axis screening refinement (4 added: fault-loaded subscore from USGS Qfaults proximity + Holocene slip + hot-spring-on-fault binary; 5 added: depth sweet-spot 500-1500m). Pass criterion: at Phase 4 single-well validation completion (5 wells, one per top-5 ranked Box Elder zone),…
Threshold:
pass_rate positive 0.6
SHA-256:
da59f7485628b060c1b090fc…
Locked:
2026-05-06
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-08-31
Non-dry historical Sevier Desert wells have higher OGC composite_score than dry wells (Predictive Geology H3 directional)
20260511_non_dry_historical_sevier_desert_865aa86c
Predictive Geology Phase 3 of 3 (companion to papers/predictive_geology_validation_design.md §4 H3 -- directional check). PRE-REGISTRATION REQUIRED before any DOGM ingest. Among the ~3000 historical Sevier Desert / Pavant / Black Rock / Beaver County wells, those classified OIL or GAS by DOGM (non-d…
Threshold:
rank_biserial_correlation_dry_lt_nondry positive 0.3
SHA-256:
d0131f86634ec20a014d2a71…
Locked:
2026-05-11
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-08-31
OGC top-decile cells in Sevier Desert cluster on basin-margin trap fairway, NOT in basin interior (Predictive Geology H1)
20260511_ogc_top_decile_cells_in_sevier_d_4eb375da
Predictive Geology Phase 1 of 3 (companion to papers/predictive_geology_validation_design.md §4 H1). PRE-REGISTRATION REQUIRED before any DOGM ingest. Conditional on a Sevier Desert / Pavant / Black Rock / Beaver County cell containing >=1 historical dry wildcat (PA disposition, TD > 1500 m), the ce…
Threshold:
median_ogc_composite_for_dry_wildcat_cells negative 25.0
SHA-256:
f5396c7a6f6ace902d90df0d…
Locked:
2026-05-11
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-08-31
Top-decile OGC cells in Sevier Desert corridor cluster within 10 km of mapped basin-margin frontal-fault structures (Predictive Geology H2)
20260511_top_decile_ogc_cells_in_sevier_d_9c8de680
Predictive Geology Phase 2 of 3 (companion to papers/predictive_geology_validation_design.md §4 H2). PRE-REGISTRATION REQUIRED before any USGS trap-map digitization. Top 10% of cells by OGC composite_score across Sevier Desert basin (cells inside bbox 38.0-40.0 N, -113.0 to -111.5 W) cluster within …
Threshold:
fraction_of_top_decile_cells_within_10km_of_frontal_fault positive 0.6
SHA-256:
8837ca2394016a3c0fe09381…
Locked:
2026-05-11
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-05-12
IOCG Scout classifier ELITE/STRONG sites confirm via dense-array/drill within 365 days
20260512_iocg_scout_classifier_elite_stro_d3a5b682
IOCG classifier shipped 2026-05-12 with dense-array-calibrated weights against 8 dense-array IOCG-positive sensors (Antelope Field 0073 conf=0.623, Black Rock 0053 conf=0.848, Millard County 0046 conf=0.712, Millard County 0044 conf=0.464, Black Rock 0094 conf=0.505, Black Rock 0058 conf=0.431, Bake…
Threshold:
true_positive_rate positive 0.5
SHA-256:
74d15947cc2cbfc8309df3d6…
Locked:
2026-05-12
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-05-12
Schumann LAIC EQ-precursor classifier ALERT/CRITICAL sites have elevated M3+ EQ rate within 365 days
20260512_schumann_laic_eq_precursor_class_87404330
Forward claim: across the 5 dense-array Schumann-capable arrays in Millard County (Delta-Oak City, Black Rock, Antelope Field, Millard County, Baker Hot Springs), sites with combined_z >= 4.0 (ALERT or CRITICAL class) will have an M3+ EQ within 30 days at least 30pct of the time over the 12-month fo…
Threshold:
true_positive_rate positive 0.3
SHA-256:
5f0e5a5c5c9129c0d94b6d74…
Locked:
2026-05-12
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-13
Phase 5 microseism universal precursor is the leading edge of a 5-day stress-state cycle straddling rupture, with peak signal at +134h post-event NOT lag -10h
20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_41a196bf
ADDENDUM to parent hypothesis 20260504_microseism_universal_precursor_c_99f4c2c7 (Bitcoin-anchored 2026-05-04). The Time-A v3 time-reversed stacking experiment (2026-05-13, N=7,120 M5.5+ events from retro tensor 2005-2018) reproduces the Phase 5 +19sigma at lag -10h finding (recast as z=-8.07 in win…
Threshold:
post_event_peak_z two_sided 5.0
SHA-256:
3e5b1b45e6afec36a6798a8d…
Locked:
2026-05-14
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-14
Phase 5 microseism universal precursor reproduces at z=+34.52 at lag -10h with 11.7x pre>>post asymmetry; Time-D entropy classifier independently confirms microseism is most-irreversible feature in 112-dim retro tensor
20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_dad7e9e7
CORRECTED ADDENDUM to parent hypothesis 20260504_microseism_universal_precursor_c_99f4c2c7. Supersedes withdrawn hypothesis 20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_41a196bf (which contained a coordinate-mapping error in interpretation -- see that withdrawal note for full disclosure). Two independe…
Threshold:
z_at_lag_minus_10h positive 5.0
SHA-256:
544ebcc1f96d5acc10216cf9…
Locked:
2026-05-14
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-17
Solar eclipse epochs do NOT statistically modulate M5+ EQ rate, microseism amplitude, or caldera unrest score within +/- 7 days
20260517_solar_eclipse_epochs_do_not_co_DRAFT
Antikythera ~150 BC predicted eclipses with 30 bronze gears via Saros + Inex cycles. DeepMap reproduces that math (cross_physics.eclipse_prediction_monitor) and adds the hypothesis test the Greeks could not run: does the orbital geometry that produces eclipses also correlate with terrestrial geophys…
Threshold:
p_value below_to_reject_null 0.01
SHA-256:
af5c5286cbeefd6e8d3451d8…
Locked:
2026-05-18
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2029-05-18
Inner-core daily rotation H2: sub-decadal 0.5-3yr oscillation
20260518_inner_core_daily_rotation_h2_sub_0750045d
FORWARD 36-month test (lock 2026-05-18, re-eval 2029-05-18). Hypothesis: after detrending the inner-core daily rotation rate timeseries (computed via 0S2 multiplet splitting on IGETS gravity, EOST-only deduped reader post commit dbd2ab73) with a 3rd-order polynomial removing decadal drift, the Lomb-…
Threshold:
lomb_scargle_peak_z_score positive 3.0
SHA-256:
c4875d0565f49fe8d8576819…
Locked:
2026-05-18
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2029-05-18
Inner-core daily rotation H3: anti-correlates with M7+ EQ rate at lag 30-180d
20260518_inner_core_daily_rotation_h3_ant_4b20eae9
FORWARD 36-month test (lock 2026-05-18, re-eval 2029-05-18). Bendick & Bilham 2017 GRL extension: 6-yr LOD oscillation correlates with global M7+ rate at r ~0.6. We test whether the inner-core differential rotation rate from 0S2 splitting (independent of LOD) shows the SAME anti-correlation at finer…
Threshold:
pearson_r negative -0.2
SHA-256:
916315bf3416513634439de2…
Locked:
2026-05-18
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-19
DeepMap A.4 lithium brine classifier top-decile (composite >= 70) producer-density precision >= 60 percent over 1-year forward window
20260519_deepmap_a_4_lithium_brine_classi_c64bd066
Forward test of the A.4 5-axis lithium brine classifier (commit c11600c2, 12 features prefix lbc_). Validation cohort at registration: 5 producers ELITE (Atacama 82.0 / Salton Sea 79.2 / Clayton Valley 78.0 / Great Salt Lake 78.0 / Smackover 70.2) vs 3 controls (Yellowstone 20.0 / Atlantic abyssal …
Threshold:
top_decile_known_producer_or_pathfinder_recall positive 0.6
SHA-256:
5587b936412932a4c5bcc00c…
Locked:
2026-05-19
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-19
Slichter mode v2 detection-or-publishable-null after D.1-SPRINT calibration cleanup
20260519_slichter_mode_v2_detection_or_pu_ee86f619
D.1-SPRINT forward test of the Slichter inner-core translational triplet (3.5h / 4.5h / 6.0h periods). Pre-registered prior to running v2 pipeline. Tests Smylie 1992 disputed claim vs Rosat 2005 null. v2 = v1 (today, NULL) plus 3 D.1-SPRINT calibration pieces: (1) Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loadin…
Threshold:
slichter_period_snr_or_sigma_floor positive 5.0
SHA-256:
66177049797fde965b7f4db7…
Locked:
2026-05-19
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-20
G3 v2 forward test: DM annual modulation in per-station IGETS Delta-g residuals (de-tided + de-atmosphered), NOT in tensor L2 norm
20260520_g3_dm_annual_modulation_per_station_igets_residual
Pre-registered narrow-channel forward test of the G3 DM annual modulation moonshot. The G3 v1 SEED's tensor-L2 backtest produced a single-arm 3.1 sigma aggregate candidate (Lomb-Scargle p=0.001, peak period 440 d, phase offset +47.7 d from June 2) on retro_tensor 2005-2018 (122,712 hourly snaps, sub…
Threshold:
n_stations_with_pvalue_below_0_05_AND_phase_within_60d_of_june_2_AND_amplitude_in_window positive 4.0
SHA-256:
f9da0858486c313b8e778dfa…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G10 Solar G-Mode Discovery v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g10_solar_g_mode_disco_06a0397f
FORWARD test of the Phase D.5-G10 Solar G-Mode Discovery moonshot. G10 v1 SEED is cross_physics/solar_gmode_discovery_monitor.py monitoring 5 candidate g-mode periods (3, 6, 9, 12, 24 hr); the v2 backtest restricts to the 3 Garcia 2007 + Provost 2000 + Belkacem 2009 theoretical candidate frequencies…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
e52c4e99a98d17b482f6e361…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G11 Free Inner Core Wobble (FICW) v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g11_free_inner_core_wo_1c7c8b93
FORWARD test of the G11 Free Inner Core Wobble (FICW) discovery detector (Phase D.5 11th moonshot). G11 v1 SEED is cross_physics/free_inner_core_wobble_discovery_monitor.py monitoring five candidate FICW periods (3d/5d/7d/9d/14d); the backtest restricts to the three primary Mathews 1991 + Mathews 20…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
da50102f02aebe56185684f2…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G1 mass tomography correctly classifies 7-of-10 known mass-anomaly sites as ELITE/STRONG with at most 1-of-5 control false positives
20260520_phase_d_5_g1_mass_tomography_cor_51cc427f
Phase D.5-G1 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = at least 7 of 10 documented mass-anomaly sites (California Central Valley + Indo-Gangetic Plain + Greenland + WAIS + Decatur CCS + Yellowstone + Long Valley + Amazon + Sumatra-Andaman + Lake Mead) classify ELITE or STRONG…
Threshold:
n_known_strong_or_elite positive 7.0
SHA-256:
c52a8389f063be769423848c…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G2 DM compact transit: 5-domain coincidence classifier detects >=80% of simulated transits at SNR>=5 with FPR<=5%
20260520_phase_d_5_g2_dm_compact_transit__23320a39
FORWARD test of the Phase D.5-G2 v2 backtest harness (scripts/backtest_g2_dm_compact_transit.py). G2 is the second of three Phase D.5 moonshots (companion to G1 Mass Tomography + G3 DM Annual Modulation). Test: 50 simulated transit injections at coincidence_score >= 5.0 (18 PBH + 18 strangelet + 1…
Threshold:
n_detected positive 40.0
SHA-256:
ae823abdc5e908e4b34ba539…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G3 dark matter annual modulation Lomb-Scargle peak amplitude exceeds bootstrap null at p<=0.05 with DAMA-consistent period and phase
20260520_phase_d_5_g3_dark_matter_annual__cb491996
Phase D.5-G3 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = ALL three arms succeed: (a) Lomb-Scargle peak period within 300-440 days, (b) peak phase within +/- 60 days of June 2 (DAMA canonical day-of-year 152.5 per Drukier-Spergel 1986), AND (c) bootstrap p-value <= 0.05 from >= …
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
7a01edb3c43d343651e0abb4…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G4 LOD anomaly detector classifies >=4 of 6 known historical LOD anomaly events as ELEVATED/ANOMALY with <=2 FP across 50 quiet controls
20260520_phase_d_5_g4_lod_anomaly_detecto_5a4d8ecb
Phase D.5-G4 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = BOTH arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 6 known LOD anomaly events (1992 El Nino peak +1.8ms, 1997-98 El Nino extreme +0.8ms, 2003 Mar acceleration +1.0ms, 2010 Maule M8.8 -1.26ms post-event step, 2020 Mar unexplained +1.5ms, 2024 …
Threshold:
detection_rate_tp_over_6 positive 0.667
SHA-256:
49aafe3e40f1baab71f1886c…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G5 inner-core wandering detector reproduces Yang & Song 2023 2009 pause/reverse
20260520_phase_d_5_g5_inner_core_wanderin_465c519d
FORWARD test of the G5 inner-core wandering detector (Phase D.5 5th moonshot). G5 v1 SEED is cross_physics/inner_core_wandering_monitor.py; v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g5_inner_core_wandering.py. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) anomaly_flag fires at least one wander event in the…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
6e04281c4036fa6829015c4b…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G6 earth mass redistribution detector reproduces 4 known mass events
20260520_phase_d_5_g6_earth_mass_redistri_e839f743
FORWARD test of the G6 Earth mass redistribution detector (Phase D.5 6th moonshot). G6 v1 SEED is cross_physics/earth_mass_redistribution_monitor.py; v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g6_earth_mass_redistribution.py. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) anomaly_flag fires within plus or mi…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
92852a7381f41e82ab33501f…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G7 pre-volcanic mass-inflation detector classifies >=4 of 8 known historical VEI>=4 eruptions as ELEVATED/INFLATION in the 12-month pre-event window with <=2 FP across 50 quiet controls
20260520_phase_d_5_g7_pre_volcanic_mass_i_0a454003
Phase D.5-G7 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = BOTH arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 8 known VEI>=4 eruptions (Pinatubo 1991 VEI6, Eyjafjallajokull 2010 VEI4, Calbuco 2015 VEI4, Anak Krakatau 2018 VEI4, Sakurajima 2019 VEI4, Soufriere 2021 VEI4, Cumbre Vieja 2021 VEI4, Hunga …
Threshold:
detection_rate_tp_over_8 positive 0.5
SHA-256:
8c24484f2916d4373acfcc8d…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G8 Pre-EQ Free-Oscillation Excitation v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g8_pre_eq_free_oscilla_66d783af
FORWARD test of the G8 Pre-Earthquake Free-Oscillation Excitation detector (Phase D.5 8th moonshot). G8 v1 SEED is cross_physics/pre_eq_free_oscillation_excitation_monitor.py monitoring six modes (0S0/0S2/0T2/1S0/0S3/0S4); the backtest restricts to the three primary spheroidal modes 0S2/0T2/0S3 per …
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
708857a37a127a94726220cd…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G9 Cosmic-Ray Terrestrial Mass Modulation v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g9_cosmic_ray_terrestr_817f01fc
Phase D.5-G9 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = ALL three arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 5 reference mass-redistribution events (Tohoku 2011 M9, Maule 2010 M8.8, Sumatra-Andaman 2004 M9.1, Greenland 2019 extreme melt, WAIS Thwaites 2023 acceleration) classified positive (pea…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
aa8e94271849ae74dd44f8a8…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-19
Wahr 1981 l=4 admixture v3.1 -- first-ever measurement with proper Y_4^2 basis + 5y IGETS + D.1-SPRINT corrections
20260520_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v3_1_fir_7b08afb9
D.1-SPRINT v3.1 forward test for first-ever planetary l=4 admixture measurement. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-19. Two outcomes: (1) Y_4^2 basis + 24-station IGETS + D.1-SPRINT corrections produces fit consistent with Wahr 1981 prediction at 2sigma -- first-ever planetary l=4 measurement paper (JG…
Threshold:
epsilon_4_within_2sigma_of_wahr_1981_range positive 0.0
SHA-256:
56534ab7844b4b5271173b77…
Locked:
2026-05-20
v2: paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost (post-predictor) -- paired predictions match rate >=2x unpaired baseline
20260521_v2_paired_megafault_paleoseismic_70095bae
Replaces withdrawn v1 (20260510_goldfinger_option_3_paired_megaf_9e4c90a0). V1 was withdrawn because the monitor module shipped without a log_prediction call site, making paired_n>=5 unreachable in window. V2 registered after cross_physics/paired_megafault_predictor.py + GATES_BY_MODEL['paired_meg…
Threshold:
match_rate_ratio positive 2.0
SHA-256:
1ecf965f266edbbf27a8f7ee…
Locked:
2026-05-21
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-22
Cascadia SSE ae_index_1h precursor forward replication: +z >= 3 at lag -105h on new Cascadia ETS 2026-05-22 to 2028-05-22
20260522_cascadia_sse_ae_index_1h_precurs_79517a3b
FORWARD replication test of the May 22 2026 v3 hypothesis-generating finding (parent hypothesis 20260522_sse_piezo_electromagnetic_precur_682c9ac6 recorded as DISCONFIRMING at the global level).
PARENT v3 result on Cascadia regional split (45 documented SSEs 2005-2018 from Wech-Bartlow PNSN catalog…
Threshold:
z_score_post_F10p7_control_and_post_Kp5_storm_filter positive 3.0
SHA-256:
b9fdf7a7d7e696e3b3e72af7…
Locked:
2026-05-22
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-08-21
PHC v0.3 with 250km play-scale regional anomaly normalization reproduces threshold=0.15 clean discrimination (recall >= 60% AND FP <= 20%) on Hingeline backtest
20260522_phc_v0_3_with_250km_play_scale_r_6a8cd857
PRE-REGISTERED FORWARD TEST. Re-run scripts/backtest_passive_hc_composite.py --mode regional_anomaly --cohort-radius 250 on AX41 in 90 days (2026-08-21). Pass criteria (BOTH required): (1) recall at threshold 0.15 >= 60% on the 3 documented Hingeline producers (Covenant Field, Providence Field, An…
Threshold:
recall_at_threshold_0_15 positive 0.6
SHA-256:
7a73faf3e28f25a8e757ee4a…
Locked:
2026-05-22
MARS-A10: Asteroid-mass PBH (10^17 to 10^23 g) transits through Earth produce a 5-domain coincidence signature (gravimeter step + magnetometer pulse + accelerometer transient + seismic blast + atmospheric IR pulse) at synchronized timestamps across >= 3 of 5 domain detectors at SNR >= 5 each. Detection or upper-bound rate < 10 per year (matches Apr 25 v1.2 bounds) over 540-day forward window.
20260526_mars_a10_asteroid_mass_pbh_10_17_0044dfc0
Asteroid-mass PBH transit search (E-1 from Apr 23 2026 brainstorm, partially active per memory/pbh_moonshot.md). 5-domain coincidence filter leveraging 18 of 27 VQ instruments -- nobody else can run this search. Apr 25 v1.2 produced upper bound <=8.4/yr; v1.3 audit Apr 28 showed null degenerate at v…
Threshold:
annual_rate_upper_bound_at_3of5_snr5 negative 10.0
SHA-256:
6bb71716ec99ae980204bd00…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-A11: If a galactic supernova within <=50 kpc occurs in the forward window, neutrino burst (Super-K SN-alert via GCN Kafka) triggers concurrent search at IRIS FDSN seismic stations + IGETS gravimeter for any M3+ earthquake within +-48h x +-1000km. Detection if any M3+ EQ correlates at p<0.001 across both physics channels; null otherwise. Supernova has approximately 1-3pct probability per year per Adams 2013; null result publishable as no evidence for SN-neutrino-EQ correlation if no SN occurs OR if SN occurs but no triggered EQs.
20260526_mars_a11_if_a_galactic_supernova_7a312ff9
Forward-going 730-day window neutrino-supernova-EQ correlation test. Extension of Fischbach 1986 disconfirmation (Phase 65p Apr 19 2026 null at p=0.30 over 14 M7+ events on real IceCube Gold/Bronze archive) to the supernova-burst regime where neutrino flux is 10^58 vs IceCube standard astrophysical …
Threshold:
p_value_2channel_agreement negative 0.001
SHA-256:
95b455b01775e1f39ef10412…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-11-17
MARS-A1: Annual modulation residual in microseism band power 0.1-0.5 Hz at 15 quiet Antarctic/island stations after atmospheric+oceanic+solar-cycle model subtraction over 18-month accumulation window
20260526_mars_a1_annual_modulation_residu_b79122e6
Mars-shot codename MARS-A1 (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). Builds on Phase 65g Dark Matter v2 pipeline (scripts/dm_real_data_pipeline.py) which runs daily 04:00 UTC on AX41 with 105 GSN stations + 822 days cached PSD + 15 quiet Antarctic/island stations stacking. Honest prior: previous DM v1 ran p=0.613 on 0.5…
Threshold:
stacked_snr positive 3.0
SHA-256:
6a00e78c0e5171266830d0a3…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-08-24
MARS-A2: 0S0 fundamental whole-Earth radial mode at ~814 µHz period 20.5 min detected at p<0.001 across >=5 of 25 IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter stations using Hanning-window FFT coherent stacking
20260526_mars_a2_0s0_fundamental_whole_ea_1b0bbb26
MARS-A2 (Mars-shot codename) is the first of 6 A-shots in the Six Science Mars-Shots Phased Program brief (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0, shipped 2026-05-26, data/private/decks/dmai_six_science_mars_shots_brief_v1.{md,pptx,pdf}). MARS-A2 tests the BROADER 0S0 ambient mode confirmation question -- does the canon…
Threshold:
n_stations_passing_p_lt_0p001 positive 5.0
SHA-256:
567a0d122b136b40a6467721…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-26
MARS-A3: Multi-year secular gravity drift at IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter stations within 500 km of known mantle plume / hot-spot locations exceeds tectonically quiet reference stations by ratio >= 3.0 on 2009-2026 cohort
20260526_mars_a3_multi_year_secular_gravi_382dfdca
Mars-shot codename MARS-A3 of the Six Science Mars-Shots phased program (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). Tests whether mantle plume / hot-spot proximity (10 known plume sites: Hawaii, Iceland, Galapagos, Yellowstone, Afar, Bouvet, Canary Islands, Reunion, Tahiti, East African Rift) imprints a detectable secular…
Threshold:
plume_to_reference_slope_ratio positive 3.0
SHA-256:
4064b13fe5ff83cbf602a0f6…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2029-05-27
MARS-A4: Solar helio-tomography via global IGETS SG array - 24-station coherent stacked PSD in 0.1-1000 nHz band over 36-month forward window 2026-05-27 to 2029-05-27 detects spectral peaks at solar gravitational modulation frequencies (11-yr cycle ~3 nHz, 27-day solar rotation ~430 nHz, solar g-mode candidates 100-300 nHz) with SNR >=3 across >=6 stations after Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading + Path A FES2014b BLQ + ICET solid-Earth tide corrections
20260526_mars_a4_solar_helio_tomography_v_18290950
Mars-shot codename MARS-A4 (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). MOST AMBITIOUS of the 6 shots - planet-scale passive solar observatory via 24-station IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network. Sub-microhertz signal detection requires sqrt(t) SNR growth from coherent stacking; 36-month integration gives 6x SNR boost …
Threshold:
stacked_snr positive 3.0
SHA-256:
a5aad0498a0424ae54d3d11a…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-A5: At M9+ historical earthquakes 1900-2026 (Aceh 2004, Maule 2010, Tohoku 2011, Sumatra 2012, Iquique 2014, Illapel 2015), tensor-conditioned waveform residual (predicted minus observed) at the nearest IRIS FDSN broadband station shows pre-rupture signature in the 0.1-1 Hz band with z-score >= +3 sigma vs background at lag -24h to -1h after fitting a tensor to waveform ridge regression. Phase 65u-MICROSEISM-LIVE Phase 5 v1 already established 0.5 sigma class residual prediction; A5 extends to M9+ stratum where signal-to-noise is maximal.
20260526_mars_a5_at_m9_historical_earthqu_ffd40f79
Extension of Phase 65u-MICROSEISM-LIVE / Phase 5 v1 (test R^2=0.052 on microseism summary band power). A5 extends to full BHZ waveform 0.1-1 Hz at M9+ rupture-class events. Honest prior: Phase 5 found microseism mostly orthogonal to other 111 retro tensor features; M9+ stratum is the cleanest test o…
Threshold:
z_score_prerupture_residual positive 3.0
SHA-256:
9b8ef0eeb16bd97de9990acb…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-22
MARS-A6: Cosmic-ray flux pre-event asymmetry at NMDB 7-station network within +/-48h of M6+ and M7+ EQ events on 14-year archive 2010-2024
20260526_mars_a6_cosmic_ray_flux_pre_even_adbcb2fb
Mars-shot codename MARS-A6. Extends Phase 5 microseism universal precursor methodology to cosmic-ray channel. Phase 5 found cosmic-ray-EQ null at p>=0.6 on M5+ events; A6 tests M6+/M7+ where signal cleanliness improves. NMDB 7-station network: OULU/APTY/JUNG/ROME/BKSN/ATHN/AATB. Test computes pre-ev…
Threshold:
pre_post_asymmetry_ratio negative 3.0
SHA-256:
40e76486aec6d2d4d47bd7fc…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2031-05-25
MARS-A7: Multi-physics tensor precursor signatures within 5-year pre-event window of historical VEI>=4 eruptions at 10 sleeping-giant volcanoes (Long Valley CA, Yellowstone WY, Tambora, Toba, Hualalai, Bardarbunga, Campi Flegrei, Aira, Iwo Jima, Soda Lakes NV) exhibit z>=+3sigma on >=2 of 4 channels (microseism, gravity, infrasound, atmospheric) vs background tensor state on GVP catalog 1900-2026
20260526_mars_a7_multi_physics_tensor_pre_2091f22a
Mars-shot codename MARS-A7. Phase 2 of MARS-SCI program, paired with MARS-A3. Extends Phase 5 microseism universal precursor methodology to decade-scale supervolcano context with 4-channel co-detection requirement. Sleeping-giants ranking from Phase 5c v1.1 (Long Valley/Yellowstone/Tambora/Toba/Hual…
Threshold:
n_channels_passing_z_threshold positive 2.0
SHA-256:
d0e5cb70e82d66ac6e6c314a…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-A8: Inner-core rotation rate timeseries 2009-2026 derived from coherent-stack 0S2 multiplet asymmetry at 25 IGETS SG stations (Phase D.0 expansion) shows sub-decadal 0.5-3yr oscillation with Lomb-Scargle peak power exceeding 1000-perm null shuffle at z >= 3 in the bundle-36-replication held-out subset 2017-2026 (post fit on 2009-2016). Tests Yang and Song 2023 Nature finding that inner-core rotation reversed in 2009-2010. Reproduction with independent network -- we use EOST-only L2 IGETS; they used Alaska earthquake waveforms.
20260526_mars_a8_inner_core_rotation_rate_d5223b4b
Independent reproduction of Yang and Song 2023 Nature 622:734 inner-core rotation reversal. Train on 2009-2016 (matches Phase D.1-A6-CLOSE Track C v3 setup), validate held-out on 2017-2026. Uses EOST-only IGETS L2 with M2/S2/N2 calibration corrections per Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE Bug 2 fix (May 18 202…
Threshold:
z_score_peak_power positive 3.0
SHA-256:
83df905d6fea402c60abb039…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-A9: For any M9+ earthquake occurring 2026-05-26 through 2027-05-26, prompt gravity signature (Vallee 2017 + Juhel 2018) is detected at SNR >= 3 across >= 2 of (a) IGETS SG within 1000km of epicenter, (b) co-incident LVK gravitational-wave detector noise residual within +-100s of rupture origin, (c) Phase 65p gw_newtonian_precursor tensor channel. NULL if no M9+ events occur in window; CONFIRMED if M9+ event detected with multi-channel agreement; ARTIFACT if single-channel signal only.
20260526_mars_a9_for_any_m9_earthquake_oc_e2c835b6
Forward-going 365-day window prompt-gravity coincidence test at M9+ rupture class. Extends Phase 65p gw_newtonian_precursor (Vallee 2017 / Juhel 2018) to NEW LVK Run 5 era (begins late 2026). Honest prior: M9+ events have ~10pct/yr base rate so window may yield zero detection (publishable null). Exi…
Threshold:
min_channel_snr_with_2of3_agreement positive 3.0
SHA-256:
a6d457a441b9bc740c97e2f1…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-21
MARS-BSA-CYCLING: Real-time BSA cycling-safety recommendation engine combining Phase 5 universal precursor + Convergence Gate v4/v7 + ETAS Forecaster + USGS local EQ activity + BSA v1.2 cyclic_safety_score (static prior) produces a forward 180-day false-positive rate <= 5% (PAUSE_24H or HARD_STOP_REVIEW issued when NO induced-seismicity event occurs within 30d of recommendation) on a synthetic backtest at 10 Aliso-Canyon-class historical incidents, with detection rate >= 80% on the real incidents.
20260526_mars_bsa_cycling_real_time_bsa_c_5e9ffdd5
v0.1 synthetic baseline: detection 70% (3 missed -- Aliso Canyon, Mont Belvieu salt cavern, Hutchinson Yaggy; all primarily geomechanical caprock failures with weak seismic precursors), FPR 0% on BSA v1.2 top-10 controls. v0.2 swaps synthetic snapshot for AX41 retro-tensor replay. v0.3 adds CAPROCK_…
Threshold:
detection_rate_and_FPR positive 0.8
SHA-256:
4a401c9a906930e691c22279…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-25
MARS-BSA-DISTGRAV: A 100-well BSA pressure-cycling array, with each well instrumented with a CG-5 (or better) wellhead gravimeter and a documented coherence efficiency epsilon in [0.5, 0.9] depending on formation type, achieves a coherent-stack SNR boost >= 0.95 * sqrt(N * epsilon) -- meaning the empirical SNR curve from N=1 to N=100 obeys the theoretical sqrt(N) array-gain law within 5% over a 365-day operational window. Treats BSA wells THEMSELVES as a distributed gravimeter array, filling the IGETS coverage gap (25 stations globally, ~0 of BSA pilot sites within 500 km).
20260526_mars_bsa_distgrav_a_100_well_bsa_f7b6b038
v0.1 first-run synthetic 4-well coherence demo recovered true_slope=0.10 uGal/MPa as stacked_mean=0.104 +- 0.0094 (SE), giving snr_of_stacked_mean=11.1 and coherence_metric=0.787 (STRONG). SNR-vs-N curve generated from N=1 to N=100, matching sqrt(N) law within 5% on synthetic data. Module cross_phys…
Threshold:
empirical_snr_over_theoretical_snr_ratio positive 0.95
SHA-256:
5d44545f9f9045af26fef4a7…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-EARTH-CAVENDISH Newton G from 25-station IGETS lunar tidal response with free oscillation cross-validation
20260526_mars_earth_cavendish_newton_g_fr_daa12be5
MARS-EARTH-CAVENDISH: Using the 25-station IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network's lunar tidal gravity response (M2 + S2 + N2 + K1 + O1 constituents) combined with free oscillation amplitudes (0S2 + 1S0 + 0T2 from Phase 65aa modules) over the 17-year archive 2009-2026, after Hinderer 1995 atmosph…
Threshold:
relative_uncertainty_ppm negative 50.0
SHA-256:
d6aa1b03492d4eeee7ca5b1d…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-METHANE-HYDRATE: Globally identify >=100 high-confidence methane hydrate provinces on continental margins via passive multi-physics scoring (hydroacoustic backscatter as BSR proxy + sea floor temperature gradient + bathymetry stability zone + gravity drift signature + EMAG2 magnetic anomaly), at depths 500-2000m on passive + active continental margins. >=10 provinces should support either (a) pilot-scale extraction economics or (b) climate-risk monitoring deployment. Top provinces should overlap with national programs (Japan METI Nankai, US DOE GoM, India ONGC Krishna-Godavari, China CGS South China Sea, Korea KIGAM Ulleung, Norway Equinor Barents).
20260526_mars_methane_hydrate_globally_id_16015a37
Mars-shot MARS-METHANE-HYDRATE. Largest unexploited fossil reserve (1,500-3,000 Gt methane carbon) + largest climate-risk methane source. Passive multi-physics scoring on continental margins 500-2000m depth. Hypothesis split: at least 100 candidate provinces globally + at least 10 supporting eith…
Threshold:
n_provinces_high_confidence positive 100.0
SHA-256:
39aa289f369d27a74dcecc15…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-REE: Globally identify rare earth element deposits via gamma + MRDS multi-physics scoring
20260526_mars_ree_globally_identify_rare__2a906627
MARS-REE: Globally identify >=500 candidate REE deposits via multi-physics scoring combining gamma spectroscopy (K/U/Th from NURE/cosmic-ray gamma) + USGS MRDS REE occurrence cross-correlation + geological province context + cyclic-pattern Th/K and Th/U ratio anomalies + per-deposit estimated REE co…
Threshold:
n_box_elder_class_composite_ge_9 positive 50.0
SHA-256:
7a3ebc4d1b5ba822f485e4bf…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-W1: Global 1°×1° aquifer recharge rate atlas constructed from GRACE-FO monthly mascons + IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter point-gravity drift + USGS NWIS groundwater levels (where available) over the 17-year archive 2009-2026 identifies >=500 high-confidence sustainable-yield candidate basins globally (combined SNR >= 3 across >= 2 of 3 sensor modalities), of which >=50 should support extractive operations at <= 0.15 USD/m^3 economics. Verifies the GRACE-FO where is the water actually being recharged signal against IGETS point-precise gravity drift + NWIS measured levels.
20260526_mars_w1_global_1_1_aquifer_recha_c0232de8
Mars-shot codename MARS-W1 of the Mars-shots water-pillar program (CLAUDE.md Phase MARS-SCI). First global 1deg x 1deg aquifer recharge map at planetary scale, constructed from 17-yr GRACE-FO mascon archive + IGETS SG point-precise drift + USGS NWIS groundwater levels. 3-modality cross-validation: G…
Threshold:
high_confidence_basin_count positive 500.0
SHA-256:
543290caa24e1b3b43765171…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-W2: Globally, pressurized subsurface formations identifiable via passive multi-physics scanning (5-axis P069 methodology + cyclic safety) exist at >=500 candidate sites distributed across South America (Andean basins), Africa (East African Rift + sub-Saharan), Asia (Tarim + Mekong + Indus), and Oceania (Murray-Darling + New Zealand); of these, >=80 should score Phase 65w-FS Box-Elder-class (composite >= 9.0)
20260526_mars_w2_globally_pressurized_sub_0a1a0910
MARS-W2 (Phase MARS-SCI Water Pillar). Extends 373-site US-Western Master Atlas to global cohort across 4 continents. Pass = >=500 candidate sites surveyed AND >=80 score composite >= 9.0 (Box-Elder-class). Forward window 2 years for commercial pilot conversion. Pre-registered before any data collec…
Threshold:
n_sites_composite_ge_9p0 positive 80.0
SHA-256:
be18fc0ac6e52f4b94bb3c1e…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-W3: The Submarine Spring Atlas v2 expanded from 122 to >=250 catalog sites identifies >=10 new high-confidence (multi-physics confirmation across >=3 of 5 axes) submarine groundwater discharge clusters with realizable freshwater extraction economics ($0.020/m3 or better, beating reverse osmosis desal by >=30x). Top-5 new clusters should each support pilot proposals to coastal water utilities at $200K-$500K pilot scale.
20260526_mars_w3_the_submarine_spring_atl_009fa178
MARS-W3 (Phase MARS-SCI Water Pillar shot 3). Extends Submarine Spring Atlas v1 (122 sites, Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE / Phase 65x) globally to >=250 catalog sites adding Mediterranean basin expansion (Greece/Italy/Cyprus/Crete/Lebanon/Israel/Egypt/Turkey), South Pacific (Fiji/Tonga/Samoa/French Polynes…
Threshold:
n_new_high_confidence_clusters positive 10.0
SHA-256:
7f5676cd9fe5bcc807e691b6…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-W6 vacuum-anywhere atlas v0.1 freshwater extraction via passive vacuum pumping Heron of Alexandria extension to 350m depth
20260526_mars_w6_vacuum_anywhere_atlas_v0_40e9e700
MARS-W6: Globally identify >=500 candidate sites where passive vacuum pumping (Heron of Alexandria extension to 350m depth via combined diurnal thermal cycling + atmospheric pressure differential + subsurface aquifer access) provides freshwater extraction at <=USD 0.10/m3, leveraging diurnal tempera…
Threshold:
n_pilot_ready_sites_and_dollars_per_m3 positive 500.0
SHA-256:
a7e31e4087aed71f01bb97ef…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-11-17
MARS-WILD-3: 50-station global cohort Dark Matter seasonal modulation residual at sqrt(50) ~ 7x SNR boost over MARS-A1, detection or exclusion of sub-eV bosonic DM AND MeV-scale axion-like particle coupling at SNR > 3 over 18-month forward window
20260526_mars_wild_3_50_station_global_co_61287beb
Mars-shot codename MARS-WILD-3 (DMAI-SCI-WILD-003 v1.0). Direct sister-shot extension of MARS-A1 (hypothesis 20260526_mars_a1_annual_modulation_residu_b79122e6, currently in 18-month accumulation at 15 quiet stations) to ~50 stations globally for sqrt(50)/sqrt(15) ~ 1.83x additional SNR ceiling boos…
Threshold:
stacked_snr_50station positive 3.0
SHA-256:
279e82128e0067c5ea9e41b5…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-06-29
Array-stacking tensor features raise per-region EQ classifier held-out AUC
20260601_array_stacking_tensor_features_r_fd3984ed
Phase 65w-STACK A-D (committed 2026-06-01). Claim: adding the 44 array-stacking tensor features (26 sc_* per-array coherence index + 9 regional_microseism_* region-local coherent sub-stack + 9 ctd_* coherent-transient/slow-slip) to tensor_eq_per_region raises held-out AUC vs an ablation baseline tra…
Threshold:
delta_auc positive 0.005
SHA-256:
c7968974f604e0d2b0bdeb72…
Locked:
2026-06-01
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-06-29
Satellite tensor block raises per-region EQ classifier held-out AUC
20260601_satellite_tensor_block_raises_pe_984c1982
Phase 65w-STACK satellite-channel program (committed 2026-06-01, channels lts/swm/lnm/emit/eco/swot). Claim: adding the 39 satellite tensor features (6 channels: ECOSTRESS thermal anomaly, EMIT 285-band mineral band-depths + methane, Landsat thermal/SWIR, ESA WorldCover, Cop-DEM lineament fabric, SW…
Threshold:
delta_auc positive 0.005
SHA-256:
704b125c3b72db1fb2e0c5be…
Locked:
2026-06-01
Multi-modal elemental-resonance fingerprint predicts non-radioelement commodity at assay sites
20260616_multi_modal_elemental_resonance__8fdea1d5
PRE-REGISTERED BEFORE DATA EXISTS (Jun 16 2026). H: a multi-modal elemental/molecular resonance fingerprint (gamma de-excitation lines via NURE K/eU/eTh local anomaly; SWIR molecular-overtone band depths via EMIT Al-OH 2200 / carbonate 2340 / ferric 900; SIP Cole-Cole relaxation) predicts the domina…
Threshold:
delta_macro_auc_multimodal_minus_best_single_channel positive 0.03
SHA-256:
91dc857206adc8a5520a83d8…
Locked:
2026-06-16
Faulted trap + deep confined fluid column at Kingston Pahvant CISCO (at least 2 of 3)
20260618_faulted_trap_deep_confined_fluid_d3eff985
DeepMap pre-registration (USU/UGS well logs). PREDICT: each site hosts a confined fluid column at depth within its faulted graben/basin - WATER at Pahvant/Kingston, HYDROCARBON-bearing at CISCO (Greater Cisco field). EVIDENCE: structural-trap axis 79-88, deep-water signal 69-70; real remote MT corro…
Threshold:
n_sites_with_confined_fluid_column_at_depth positive 2.0
SHA-256:
14bb499c869da406f914ac79…
Locked:
2026-06-18
Pahvant deep-water replenishment is deep (1-3 km) not surface: producible water tritium is dead
20260618_pahvant_deep_water_replenishment_c6033cb7
DECISIVE CLAIM. DeepMap pre-registration (USU isotope lab). PREDICT: water chemistry/isotopes show OLD/DEEP signature: tritium dead (<0.8 TU) AND/OR C14 old AND/OR 3He/4He elevated above atmospheric. EVIDENCE: dv/v deep band (0.1-0.5 Hz ~1-3 km) carries -0.199 %/yr trend + 1.16% seasonal swing peaki…
Threshold:
tritium_TU_of_producible_deep_water negative 0.8
SHA-256:
f034833362aa4666f996717b…
Locked:
2026-06-18
Pahvant-Hansel corridor hosts deep confined artesian water (excess head at 300-1500 m)
20260618_pahvant_hansel_corridor_hosts_de_5a812e3a
DeepMap pre-registration (USU/Stephanie Froham + UGS). PREDICT: a borehole/UGS+DOGM deep-well record in the Hansel-Pahvant corridor encounters a confined aquifer with measurable excess hydraulic head (artesian/sub-artesian) at ~300-1500 m. EVIDENCE: helium DRI grid over faulted graben; flowing-artes…
Threshold:
confined_aquifer_with_excess_head_present positive 1.0
SHA-256:
f5875e43ed514eb719c64da8…
Locked:
2026-06-18
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-09-20
Mesh RF link RSSI as a temperature-controlled passive humidity sensor
20260620_mesh_rf_link_rssi_as_a_temperatu_ddf175e3
Pre-registered 2026-06-20 before forward data exists. CLAIM: in humid-climate regions the temperature-controlled partial correlation between the coherent regional RSSI-anomaly stack (z-score each fixed pair daily RSSI, average across pairs per day) and daily relative humidity is NEGATIVE (humidity u…
Threshold:
median_humid_region_partial_r_rssi_humidity_given_temp negative -0.2
SHA-256:
36344b6276cb3e280e290c07…
Locked:
2026-06-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-06-22
Ambient-noise inner-core differential motion via the BC-DF differential of through-globe Green's functions
20260623_ambient_noise_inner_core_differe_868fb110
PRE-REGISTRATION -- independent ambient-noise test of inner-core differential motion.
BACKGROUND. The inner-core differential-rotation debate (Yang & Song 2023; Vidale; Tkalcic) rests almost entirely on repeating-earthquake DOUBLET PKIKP(df)-PKPbc differential traveltimes, criticised for sparse, un…
Threshold:
ensemble_bcdf_drift_sigma two_sided 3.0
SHA-256:
13d937cee0eb491c3f9b8bb1…
Locked:
2026-06-23
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-07-01
Dogma A: operational EQ forecasts carry skill over ETAS + regional base-rate baselines (12-month held-out forward test)
20260701_dogma_a_operational_eq_forecasts_13b7ef38
DOGMA A -- the consensus that operational earthquake forecasting adds no skill over a random/ETAS/base-rate model. Pre-registered FORWARD HELD-OUT test: DeepMap's operational EQ forecast stream (convergence_gate + tensor_eq_per_region + tensor_eq_global probabilities in the hash-chained ledger) beat…
Threshold:
brier_skill_score_vs_regional_poisson_baserate positive 0.02
SHA-256:
21b435019cd0c855baaa0a5a…
Locked:
2026-07-01
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-07-01
Dogma C: a multi-day precursor to a great earthquake exists -- stacked-epoch M7+ forward test with honest solar controls
20260701_dogma_c_a_multi_day_precursor_to_1f92590a
DOGMA C -- the strong-form unpredictability dogma: that NO passive channel carries pre-rupture information at MULTI-DAY lead before a great earthquake. Pre-registered stacked-epoch FORWARD test: across ALL M>=7.0 events in 2026-07-01..2027-07-01, a LOCKED multi-channel tensor feature (stacked-epoch …
Threshold:
pre_event_stacked_z_solar_controlled positive 3.0
SHA-256:
a2fa3ef7b956403077f1de1b…
Locked:
2026-07-01
MARS-8 Earth-as-DM-detector: Cygnus-moveout macroscopic-dark-matter transit search (SG + GSN network)
20260701_mars_8_earth_as_dm_detector_cygn_05bbd9ec
MARS-SHOT #8 -- DRAFT PRE-REGISTRATION (NOT YET LOCKED; REQUIRES MIKE SIGN-OFF).
HYPOTHESIS: If macroscopic/composite dark-matter objects (nuclearites, strangelets, primordial-black-hole-scale clumps, Q-balls) transit through or near Earth at galactic velocity, the global network of superconducting…
Threshold:
network_coherent_snr_at_cygnus positive 5.0
SHA-256:
171f68f8027cbb33579cb194…
Locked:
2026-07-01
Microseism -10h precursor as a SHADOW 24-36h EQ notice: skill over base rate (forward held-out)
20260701_microseism_10h_precursor_as_a_sh_47d7b6f5
MICROSEISM -10h -> 24h SHADOW NOTICE. Operationalize the Phase-5 universal-precursor finding (microseism secondary-band 3s +19sigma at lag -10h for M5.5+, survives solar-cycle control) into a per-event 24-36h EQ notice, run in SHADOW (no user-facing alerts) until calibrated. A shadow predictor fires…
Threshold:
notice_precision_and_lift_over_baserate positive 0.15
SHA-256:
5644241fadb2e4a89f6d4341…
Locked:
2026-07-01
Abiogenic-HC multi-tracer convergence at five high-R/Ra serpentinization-context sites
20260703_abiogenic_hc_multi_tracer_conver_97b00a36
PRE-REGISTERED CANDIDATE SET (ranked by literature 3He/4He R/Ra, the mantle-source tracer), locked BEFORE any new gas sampling so that any future sampling (by us or in the literature) is a blind forward test of the screen: (1) Chimaera Eternal Flames, Turkey R/Ra 5.1 -- STANDOUT: onshore, actively v…
Threshold:
n_sites_with_>=2_abiogenic_markers positive 3.0
SHA-256:
e2ad8f42edcedc073a0e5bb7…
Locked:
2026-07-03
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-10-12
Passive dv/v detects effective-stress (pore-pressure) change at Utah FORGE injection episodes (springboard US6977866B2)
20260712_passive_dv_v_detects_effective_s_7e043492
SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE: first invention through the test-before-file loop. Expired US6977866B2 (ConocoPhillips, Huffman et al) velocity-to-effective-stress transform, surfaced+deep-read by the Invention Springboard Miner 2026-07-12; proposed combination = drive the Bowers/Eaton velocity-effective-stres…
Threshold:
injection_window_stacked_z negative -2.0
SHA-256:
27585e75c158abe395d93a65…
Locked:
2026-07-12
Springboard test: US7127353B2 - Method and apparatus for imaging permeability pathways of geologic fluid reservoirs using seismic emission tomography
20260712_springboard_test_us7127353b2_met_90aefeea
SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE (invention loop). Brief-derived hypothesis approved by Mike. CLAIM: In a reservoir/fracture volume under measurable cyclic loading, the SET coherence (semblance) energy of critically-stressed fracture fairways — those oriented within ±45° of the maximum horizontal compressive str…
Threshold:
None
SHA-256:
5c395ecd4fd00d46046601f4…
Locked:
2026-07-12
Springboard test: US7391675B2 - Microseismic event detection and location by continuous map migration
20260712_springboard_test_us7391675b2_mic_f603e70e
SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE (invention loop). Brief-derived hypothesis approved by Mike. CLAIM: Adaptive-Tc continuous coalescence migration over an existing sparse regional FDSN array will automatically detect and locate microseismic events at least 0.3 magnitude units below the network's published catalog…
Threshold:
None
SHA-256:
924679cb14f827722d66a386…
Locked:
2026-07-12
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-10-11
v2 imminent_convergence_72h SHADOW forward test: >=70% hit rate
20260712_v2_imminent_convergence_72h_shad_a3f748c7
v2 of the imminent-convergence 72h forward test (v1 4ec47bcd withdrawn pre-launch, zero data: Mike directed SHADOW-mode testing before public exposure). Trigger rule unchanged: >=4 DISTINCT models holding active in-window HIGH/CRITICAL EQ forecasts on the same region simultaneously -> ONE 72h shadow…
Threshold:
resolved_hit_rate_pct positive 70.0
SHA-256:
a062f8691ca5028cc3920790…
Locked:
2026-07-12
Deep-water fault venting at Pine Valley: anomalous tidally-modulated cloud formation over the Hurricane Fault pressurized segment
20260713_deep_water_fault_venting_at_pine_63364a5e
Primary pre-registered test on Pine Valley ONLY (one clean hypothesis). Killer discriminant = H3 tidal: the atmosphere has no lunar M2, a tidally-pumped fault vent does; M2(12.42h) must be separated from solar S2(12.00h) via the multi-year record. Orographic null controlled with 3 matched Colorado P…
Threshold:
H3_tidal_M2_or_Mf_peak_p positive 0.01
SHA-256:
e806485f5294a145bb5678f0…
Locked:
2026-07-13
Passive deep-Earth body-wave retrieval with double-array slowness artifact rejection
20260714_passive_deep_earth_body_wave_ret_92167244
PRE-REGISTRATION (Springboard #384, HAL-tel-01927711v1, ISTerre Campillo/Boue/Roux lineage). CONFIRMATORY, not blind: the continuous noise exists in FDSN archives DeepMap already ingests, but this double-array slowness analysis has never been run before this lock. HYPOTHESIS: using two teleseismical…
Threshold:
real_vs_spurious_classification_accuracy positive 0.8
SHA-256:
f5ec2eec70af05c1975227f9…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley barometric disentangle: east faults vs east non-faults (fault-venting vs regional confound)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_disentang_bed7b5e8
PRE-REGISTRATION -- GENUINELY BLIND: the two east-fault boxes' (Moab 38.57/-109.55, Lisbon Valley 38.15/-109.30) barometric response has NEVER been measured; their GOES cloud series is built AFTER this lock. Follows the #2 barometric PASS whose west/east confound (escalante flat WEST control tied th…
Threshold:
disentangle_excess_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
5b635ef8df5ce645a18f1ad8…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley barometric-pumping cloud response (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_pumping_c_5d6c8b00
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = excess (fault beta - mean control beta) < 0 AND block-bootstrap p<=0.05. Low pressure eases fault confinement -> extra venting;…
Threshold:
barometric_excess_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
f8a9f795fa2901dd112a3db0…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley fortnightly/spring-neap cloud modulation (threshold-tidal fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_fortnightly_spring_n_b97d3ad8
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault spring-neap p<=0.05 AND fault spring-neap snr > max control snr. Resolves the M2 null: a threshold-triggered fault releas…
Threshold:
fault_spring_neap_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
a6c515918bcbf5d4e5b5cda8…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley seasonal hydrologic-loading lagged venting (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seasonal_hydrologic__e82c2420
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault peak-lagcorr > every control AND phase-randomised p<=0.05. Interannual loading anomaly -> lagged venting anomaly, fault-a…
Threshold:
seasonal_lagged_excess_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
67db91f0611d86610039730c…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley seismic dynamic-triggering venting burst (superposed-epoch, fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seismic_dynamic_trig_300290ad
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault post-event (0-3d) minus pre-event (-7..-1d) excess p<=0.05 AND fault excess > max control excess. Earthquakes transiently…
Threshold:
seismic_postevent_excess_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
e5fa0a35b8d0d9a0f14cf6ec…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Convergence-gated microseism 10h notice beats ungated
20260715_convergence_gated_microseism_10h_0eff9c3a
SHADOW-only convergence-gated 10h/36h microseism notice (cross_physics/microseism_gated_notice.py). Gates the Phase-5 regional microseism-z excursion (z>=3.0) on the region being convergently loaded (>=3 distinct models at HIGH/CRITICAL via scan_convergence). PASS = gated forward precision >= 0.20 a…
Threshold:
precision positive 0.2
SHA-256:
aa862cfbf81a390b415a15e9…
Locked:
2026-07-15
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-10-16
Fault energy-state stand-down: de-energized regions have a lower subsequent EQ rate than held regions
20260716_fault_energy_state_stand_down_de_25e55634
Tracker flags a watched region STOOD_DOWN when its arming dv/v anomaly recovers toward baseline (recover threshold -0.15pct) WITHOUT a qualifying M>=4.5 in-region quake during the armed window. Hypothesis: de-energization is real -> STOOD_DOWN regions have a LOWER M4.5+ rate in the 30d after stand-d…
Threshold:
stood_down_minus_held_M4.5_rate_30d negative 0.0
SHA-256:
02eec6a0b41eed3841903f1e…
Locked:
2026-07-16
Magnitude-scaled forecast window raises M6+ hit rate without moving the M<6 bulk
20260716_magnitude_scaled_forecast_window_fb872e19
The magnitude-scaled forecast window (M6.5+ 21d / M6-6.5 14d / M5.5-6 10d / M<5.5 7d, live 2026-07-16) is predicted to RAISE the resolved hit rate for high-mag EQ forecasts (expected_mag_max>=6.0) -- by crediting the true longer lead AND eliminating premature-expiry misses (early forecasts that used…
Threshold:
m6plus_resolved_hit_rate_delta_pp positive 0.0
SHA-256:
a2f994ebca7385a4d7822ee4…
Locked:
2026-07-16
v2 RS+ETAS caldera forecaster on LIVE deformation beats the coverage null
20260718_v2_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_on_4fdfbd38
Supersedes 20260506_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_high__eb9944b0, withdrawn as an INVALID test: the NGL IGS14 URL was dead for that entire window so every alert rode a frozen 50 mm/yr literature prior (rs_amp 8.2652 constant > CRITICAL threshold 5.0 by arithmetic). Fixed 2026-07-18 (NGL IGS20 repoint) …
Threshold:
match_rate_minus_coverage_null_pp positive 10.0
SHA-256:
5f50b723a0b34168f8cf1a08…
Locked:
2026-07-18
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-09-01
Microseism precursor operating point z>=10 holds forward at precision >= 0.10
20260720_microseism_precursor_operating_p_61a24c94
FORWARD test of the Track B operating characteristic. Track B chose z>=10 on a strict era split (fit 2005-2014, scored 2015-2018) giving precision 0.222, recall 0.607, 28.5 false alarms per year against a base rate of 0.0368. An era split is still retrospective; this applies the SAME point forward t…
Threshold:
precision positive 0.1
SHA-256:
5871865aa5b178755e032022…
Locked:
2026-07-20
Hypotheses where the forward window has closed and the literal observed
result has been recorded. Both confirmatory and null outcomes are
preserved here — we publish nulls.
Coastal sites cited in pre-1900 historical records as 'good water' landings score higher on the 5-axis SGD composite than geographically-matched random control sites
20260518_coastal_sites_cited_in_pre_1900__873c2e65
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'ffec46b5aaad6d2be24d7d74c7a7dc0a47de7c16', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 2e-05, 'n_observed': 106, 'notes': 'Pooled Welch t...
Slichter mode v4 — methods-clean null with 24-station coherent stack + matched-filter detection
20260520_slichter_mode_v4_methods_clean_n_5af2ca52
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '5eec07b1f1a274ae26d3a1966228e032f87d907d', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.18033, 'n_observed': 15, 'notes': 'Cross-seed 50k...
Wahr 1981 l=4 admixture v4 forward test: OSO Path A BLQ + Hinderer v2 literature beta tightens CI while excluding +0.7%
20260521_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v4_forwa_a6ae7dc5
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '612219f4a05c9ffb62de574bc803058942a30815', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.103, 'n_observed': 23, 'notes': "AMBIGUOUS disposition...
SSE piezo-electromagnetic precursor: AE/AL/AU/Dst/IMF-Bz signature in -336h pre-SSE window, N=79 catalog
20260522_sse_piezo_electromagnetic_precur_682c9ac6
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'a19d249f8acbbe45ac3a4ed55504cd063890d8f5', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -4.2, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'MARGINAL/NULL at the...
Slichter 5.40h triplet replicates across independent data splits
20260607_slichter_5_40h_triplet_replicate_38bc5632
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '768b9231edb4525fe96d17ec70086d4097b93cdd', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 1.0, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PARTIAL: 1 of 2 splits...
Tidal fault-criticality predicts failure (held-out 2005-14 to 2015-18)
20260607_tidal_fault_criticality_predicts_5e1c6d12
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b72820063f794e027fc496058efeb6a6e7b1bb37', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -0.0074, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'HELD-OUT NULL....
De-confounding preserves microseism precursor + kills solar artifact
20260609_de_confounding_preserves_microse_72295a03
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'dfe84c9f26cba05d167e8aad8f805beb6b736554', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.035, 'n_observed': 122712, 'notes': "FAIL on composite...
De-confounding reduces Phase-4 ternary-mining spurious triples
20260609_de_confounding_reduces_phase_4_t_320f3a7a
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b74e2191e788ebeb365fedd96eb7431c81e659a4', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.033, 'n_observed': 122712, 'notes': "FAIL, and it...
EMTF resistivity discriminates fluid-rich vs stable crust
20260609_emtf_resistivity_discriminates_f_3d4ddf91
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'd446d95156a4876a875e6cbca1ecbc2345c69897', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0606, 'n_observed': 22, 'notes': 'FAIL (narrow). EMTF...
EMTF v2: broadband min-resistivity discriminates fluid-rich vs stable crust
20260609_emtf_v2_broadband_min_resistivit_0024a9ef
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'df85c5751e86f7c7d6d857b877755a3c5e0a0871', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.2655, 'n_observed': 22, 'notes': "FAIL (clearer than...
MT phase-tensor crustal mean-phase discriminates fluid-associated fault sites from basin/craton controls
20260705_mt_phase_tensor_crustal_mean_pha_b1dd0fa6
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '286f97bf90860be1e2202080f3d8fcba713b92b2', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.00926, 'n_observed': 17, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path':...
MT phase-tensor crustal skew discriminates fluid-associated fault sites from basin/craton controls
20260705_mt_phase_tensor_crustal_skew_dis_c577e798
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '1d911dfcfe431108792b7730cb87b9ec1de09d3d', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.936, 'n_observed': 16, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path':...
VQ31 virtual creepmeter v0.1 GNSS+InSAR vs Parkfield UL creepmeters
20260708_vq31_virtual_creepmeter_v0_1_gns_ae525a54
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'c0a8127ccf688b956d2851d49447d0010916a004', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.64, 'n_observed': 11, 'notes': 'v0.1 PASS -- all three...
VQ33 virtual wave buoy from coastal microseism vs held-out NDBC
20260708_vq33_virtual_wave_buoy_from_coas_031574ae
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'bb3eeebe3fdb3fada92b2b5bbf1a0946800c3672', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.233, 'n_observed': 10, 'notes': "v1 NULL as locked:...
VQ33v2 virtual wave buoy open-ocean pairing vs nearest-surviving-buoy baseline
20260708_vq33v2_virtual_wave_buoy_open_oc_494e9af7
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e04d62e9107f973819a17f613fa7e36fe6e1941d', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.856, 'n_observed': 6, 'notes': 'v2 PARTIAL: r criterion...
VQ34 virtual geothermometer beats IDW on held-out heat-flow wells
20260708_vq34_virtual_geothermometer_beat_b380f98d
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'a231190ec014994e055cac0dad48843f24f2f89b', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -0.221, 'n_observed': 7279, 'notes': 'v1 NULL on raw file...
VQ34v2 geothermometer beats IDW on QC-capped heat-flow wells
20260708_vq34v2_geothermometer_beats_idw__81af9a0b
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '64ce29dfda907fe860f2bb7977ae684b4b979baa', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -0.031, 'n_observed': 6252, 'notes': 'v2 CLEAN NULL:...
VQ41 lunar tidal quake gauge predicts held-out Apollo deep moonquakes
20260709_vq41_lunar_tidal_quake_gauge_pre_ee6ba102
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e5ca0eeba7799f2c114cfd0e1c637a91ee93f753', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.0651, 'n_observed': 477, 'notes': 'PASS -- first off-world...
Springboard test: US6985816B2 - Methods and systems for determining the orientation of natural fractures
20260712_springboard_test_us6985816b2_met_474a72f6
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'ddeb060ffccb0e6f1dc198f85d53f3ea7d8f6cdb', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.603, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PASS (marginal, exactly...
VQ42 Virtual Moho Gauge: H-k receiver-function crustal thickness vs CRUST1.0
20260713_vq42_virtual_moho_gauge_h_k_rece_80e2b823
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'ddeb060ffccb0e6f1dc198f85d53f3ea7d8f6cdb', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -3.227, 'n_observed': 22, 'notes': 'PARTIAL: recovers Moho...
vq43 virtual single-station Mw gauge Brune spectral moment reproducibility
20260713_vq43_virtual_single_station_mw_g_5bfdd766
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'f5eadb3213ade1adb54eaba0d03c613fc93bb286', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.78, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PASS: single-station...
vq45 virtual anisotropy field SKS shear-wave splitting reproducibility
20260713_vq45_virtual_anisotropy_field_sk_ffb62804
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '24b64e03b15ffe536fc1cf4721574bb6cdc3dd9b', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.43, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PARTIAL (real...
Pine Valley barometric-pumping cloud response (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_pumping_c_5d6c8b00
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b87aee0cf1deb545102252e3aa43496c1c749313', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.001, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PASS on the LOCKED...
Pine Valley fortnightly/spring-neap cloud modulation (threshold-tidal fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_fortnightly_spring_n_b97d3ad8
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '8f02c39c4004b609738eca5d6c196f58095efa7a', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.164, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'NULL: fault...
Pine Valley M2 lunar-tidal cloud modulation (fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_m2_lunar_tidal_cloud_b26f1d93
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'c9dbd0b84843dca02b1a7f3f386b9260ce219dd1', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.5246, 'n_observed': 73224, 'notes': '',...
Pine Valley seasonal hydrologic-loading lagged venting (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seasonal_hydrologic__e82c2420
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b87aee0cf1deb545102252e3aa43496c1c749313', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.4032, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'NULL: fault peak...
Pine Valley seismic dynamic-triggering venting burst (superposed-epoch, fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seismic_dynamic_trig_300290ad
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '8f02c39c4004b609738eca5d6c196f58095efa7a', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.479, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'NULL: fault...
UT+NV fault-venting flatter summer diurnal cloud cycle vs matched flat-basin controls
20260714_ut_nv_fault_venting_flatter_summ_4e5e8a1c
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '421cb401a15152c29e3acf11f46cdc34bbc39d94', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.1626, 'n_observed': 43, 'notes': 'NULL (well-powered,...
Escalation-signature scale invariance M4 vs M5 plus (US)
20260715_escalation_signature_scale_invar_3a64d89f
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e7f52ce0def62eb4eb23a39337041d64220ec121', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.838, 'n_observed': 685, 'notes': "PASS_scale_invariant....
Replenishable-basin loading is deep-decoupled from surface mass, strongest where loading rate is highest
20260715_replenishable_basin_loading_is_d_06cf1059
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '44f6b50db77982e1ce685cc4915e5d8e723f8710', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.3214, 'n_observed': 7, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path':...
ETAS-derived per-region probability beats the incumbent tensor_eq_per_region classifier on a temporal holdout
20260719_etas_derived_per_region_probabil_0ad8c552
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'dbfe90630b0f15ca182ae4f0d5059ab4b3b6b3c5', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 1.0, 'n_observed': 3, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path': None,...
Tensor adds magnitude information on top of ETAS beyond a recalibrated b-value
20260719_tensor_adds_magnitude_informatio_3b3bf3bc
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'd7dd8e0c94ba7046a2ba34540d1a4b763923e424', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0, 'n_observed': 3, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path': None,...
chile_peru ETAS 7-day probability retains AUC >= 0.60 on held-out 2019-2026
20260720_chile_peru_etas_7_day_probabilit_0aa760c4
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '0a6cc78373b89e6e98ca0da8ebe268cdadeccd4e', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.493, 'n_observed': 338, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path':...
Hypotheses withdrawn before the test window closed — typically because
the underlying model went silent or the test became untestable as
stated. We don't delete withdrawn entries; the OTS proof is preserved
alongside the JSON so the audit trail is intact.