Prediction Track Record

Cryptographically verified predictions matched against real-world events. Every prediction is SHA-256 hashed before the event occurs.

Last 30 days: every M6.0+ earthquake on Earth

Ground truth: the USGS ComCat catalog — so a miss is a real miss and shows here the day it happens. HIT = the event was preceded by a logged, hash-anchored forecast that later matched it.

MagDate (UTC)LocationLeadProof
HIT M6.2 2026-08-22 Scotia Sea 18.5 d 04efb3e37eb76baf…
HIT M6.7 2026-08-20 31 km NW of Aniso, Peru 20.5 d b99ca59718bac7e3…
HIT M6.1 2026-08-16 56 km NNE of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 20.4 d cb281bb2af36653f…
HIT M6.9 2026-08-15 9 km WNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia 20.5 d aba1d4d8c2306bca…
HIT M6.1 2026-08-14 58 km N of Ende, Indonesia 20.0 d aba1d4d8c2306bca…
HIT M7.7 2026-08-14 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia 20.0 d aba1d4d8c2306bca…
HIT M6 2026-08-12 South Sandwich Islands region 20.0 d 1a0de13e6704dfec…
HIT M7.4 2026-08-10 5 km S of San José del Palmar, Colombia 20.7 d 7e7a12e576459c99…
HIT M6.3 2026-08-05 south of the Kermadec Islands 19.6 d 2d69baf50a728b8c…
HIT M6.3 2026-08-05 28 km SW of Sarangani, Philippines 19.4 d 4b600bcc7eff99fd…
HIT M6.8 2026-07-28 The 2026 Kumamoto Region, Japan Earthquake 10.5 d 287d5d2d00467a64…
HIT M6 2026-07-24 55 km W of Sola, Vanuatu 7.0 d 09f6be7e7885ee49…

Coverage: M6.0+ 12/12 · M5.5+ 50/56 · M5.0+ 205/222 (coverage of catalog events by matched forecasts — not a skill claim)

Does this beat chance? The measured answer.

On where to look — not yet. We currently hold 87.0% of the world's seismicity under alarm and catch 86.0% of the earthquakes (345/401, 90 d, M5.0+). Alarming that same fraction of ground at random would catch 87.0%. Area Skill Score 0.4809, where 0.5 is no skill — integrated over the full alarm-threshold trajectory, not a single operating point (the single-point approximation reads 0.4953, which is optimistic). This number cannot be improved by alarming more — widening the alarm drives it toward 0.5 by construction.

On how likely — yes, newly. After per-model recalibration, 5 of 6 models reach positive out-of-sample skill (n-weighted mean of per-model out-of-sample Brier Skill Score +0.0870, where 0 is no better than quoting the base rate), from an expanding-window walk-forward. Recalibration is monotone, so it moves this number and leaves the Area Skill Score untouched — they are different products.

Separately, conditioned on a forecast having been issued: the when-issued full-magnitude rate is 65.7% (n=382, trailing 30 d, expired M4+) against 28.7% for naive USGS-catalog climatology, walk-forward backtest Aug 2026. That is a narrower question than the two above — it says nothing about how much ground we alarmed to get it, which is exactly what the Area Skill Score measures. Reproducible from public catalogs; every forecast hash-anchored before its event.

Updated 2026-08-23T04:45:21+00:00 · every forecast SHA-256 hashed + Bitcoin-anchored before the event · raw JSON · our numbers, explained

12449
Total Predictions
7851
Confirmed
B
Avg Grade
72.2h
Avg Lead Time
854.0km
Avg Distance
63.1%
Confirmation Rate
Narrow High-Skill Products (tensor-outcome trained + reactive; live-ledger rates below)

These are the subset of predictions produced by classifiers trained on real event outcomes (not synthetic distributions) plus physics-constrained reactive products. Broken out here because they represent the honest upper bound of current forecasting skill.

Narrow Seismic
tensor_eq_per_region • tensor_eq_global • etas_aftershock • swarm_detector
75.6%
Hit Rate
4759
Predictions
3597
Matched
Narrow Solar (Phase 65h)
tensor_solar_flare_classifier — cross-validated, not temporal-holdout; the live-ledger hit rate below is the operational number
90.8%
Hit Rate
152
Predictions
138
Matched
Convergence Gate — multi-physics N≥3 agreement 97% specificity by construction (requires ≥3 channels at |z|≥2) ARMED · AWAITING

Fires only when ≥3 independent physics channels (seismic, electromagnetic, gravity, atmospheric, particle, oceanic, thermal, fluid) each cross a 2σ threshold in the same 15-min tensor snapshot. By construction, the expected false-positive rate at this gate is <3% for uncorrelated channels. This is the highest-precision, lowest-volume product in the ledger.
The gate is running on AX41 (13 * * * * cron); it has not yet produced its first ledger fire. That is expected behaviour at design-threshold: fires are supposed to be rare.

97.0%
Design Precision
—
Measured Hit Rate
0
Total Fires
0
Active
Cascadia + San Andreas Paired-Megafault Watch Goldfinger 2025 paleoseismic prior · 0.2%/yr LOADING…

Tests whether the Cascadia subduction zone AND the southern San Andreas (UCERF3) are both elevated above their typical 7-day rate in the same window. Goldfinger et al. 2025 (Geosphere 21(6):1132) identifies 3 paired Cascadia+SAF events in 1,500 years from sediment-core turbidite analysis -- the 1700 paired M~9 + M~7.5 is the most recent example. The paper deliberately stops at correlation; this card follows the same discipline.

Cascadia Subduction Zone
—
M3+ events / 7d
—
vs expected —
Southern San Andreas (UCERF3)
—
M3+ events / 7d
—
vs expected —
—
Posterior alert probability (next 7d) · paleoseismic prior 3.8e-5
Joint score: — / 100
data age: —

Prior derived from 3 paired co-occurrences in 1,500 yr turbidite stratigraphy (Goldfinger 2025).

0.01/7d hard cap encoded — we cannot claim recurrence stronger than paleoseismic evidence supports.

Industrial Magnitude Cascade Phase 65o — T-7d → T-36h → T-24h per region

Per-region tiered-horizon cascade for industrial shutdown protocols (smelters, chip fabs, rail). Each of the ~54 monitored earthquake regions independently emits up to 3 linked predictions per run — T-7d early warning, T-36h convergence tightening, T-24h industrial alert. Confidence thresholds are 0.60 / 0.75 / 0.85. Every tier carries the M0.5 band (or M0.25 once a region graduates on residual sigma ≤ 0.30 with ≥ 30 matched obs), a 95% CI, and a SHA-256 hash-chain entry.

T-7d
Early warning — conf ≥ 0.60
71.9%
Hit Rate
96
Total
69
Matched
0 active
T-36h
Convergence — conf ≥ 0.75
57.9%
Hit Rate
731
Total
423
Matched
0 active
T-24h
Industrial alert — conf ≥ 0.85
41.3%
Hit Rate
404
Total
167
Matched
0 active
Most-Active Regions (top 10 by cascade volume)
Region Total Matched Hit Rate Tiers Fired
indonesia 37 36 97.3% T-24h T-36h
cascadia 34 29 85.3% T-24h T-36h T-7d
alaska 33 33 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
caribbean_pr 33 32 97.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
tonga 33 32 97.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
japan 31 31 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
iceland 28 7 25.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
chile_peru 27 27 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
italy 27 17 63.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
juan_de_fuca_ridge 27 13 48.1% T-24h T-36h T-7d
Tensor-Trained Solar Flare Classifier Phase 65h — real GOES X-ray outcomes

First solar-flare classifier trained on real outcome labels instead of rule-based synthetic data. Inputs: 9,687-dim Earth State Tensor + time-series delta. Target: M-class+ (or M-class+) solar flare in the next 24 hours. Labels come from NOAA SWPC GOES X-ray flux. Replaces the synthetic-trained classifier stuck at 17.1% real hit rate.

0.987
LOOCV AUC (ranking score — 24h labels overlap at */15 cadence and the 7-day GOES label feed cannot be temporally held out; the live-ledger when-issued rate above is the operational metric)
0.019
Brier
491
Samples
220/271
Pos / Neg
Per-Geyser Skill Breakdown (narrow products vs. bulk predictor)

Last 30 days, post-PR#28 cadence-artifact fix (Apr 20). Bulk Old Faithful is now logged as one prediction per predicted eruption (was every ~10 min; the old number was a cadence artifact, not skill). Specific geysers (Daisy, Beehive, Riverside) are scored per-eruption. Small N (n<10) and irregular-cadence research-tier geysers are badged so 100% on n=6 doesn't read the same as 100% on n=60.

Geyser Predictions Matched Hit Rate Quality
Grand
yellowstone_grand 		14 14 100.0% n=14 RESEARCH
yellowstone_great_fountain 14 14 100.0% n=14 STRONG
Beehive
yellowstone_beehive 		10 10 100.0% n=10 STRONG
Daisy
yellowstone_daisy 		8 8 100.0% n=8 STRONG · SMALL N
yellowstone_fountain 6 6 100.0% n=6 STRONG · SMALL N
Riverside
yellowstone_riverside 		3 3 100.0% n=3 STRONG · SMALL N
Castle
yellowstone_castle 		2 2 100.0% n=2 STRONG · SMALL N
Old Faithful (bulk)
yellowstone 		574 329 57.3% n=574 BULK · 1/ERUPTION
Old Faithful Eruption Coverage (reformulated metric)
70.4%
891 of 1265 distinct Old Faithful eruptions caught across 151.0 operating days (8.4 eruptions/day average per GeyserTimes).
This is the right question: "of all the eruptions we know happened, what fraction did we catch?" The bulk hit rate above answers a different question (per-prediction precision, naturally low because of cadence). Both metrics are honest; this one is the operationally meaningful one.
Tensor-Trained EQ Classifier (real outcome targets, leave-one-out cross-validated)
Global classifier (M6.0+ in 7d)
0.965
LOOCV AUC trained on 8760 earth state tensor snapshots (5785+ / 2975- balanced binary task). Brier 0.048.
First real outcome-trained EQ model (real USGS labels, not synthetic). Retraining weekly as snapshots accumulate at */15 cadence.
Holdout caveat: in a sealed out-of-sample test this model family's score fell to chance (held-out AUC 0.496, hypothesis HYP-9fb3d2fa, adjudicated 2026-07-20) — treat the cross-validated number as a ranking score, not live forecast skill. The live ledger record above is the operational metric.
Per-region classifiers (M4.5+ in 7d)
0.980
Mean LOOCV AUC across 113 trained regional models (16 regions skipped, awaiting more data).
Same holdout caveat applies (HYP-9fb3d2fa: held-out AUC 0.496 = chance). The when-issued ledger rate for this model — 80.1% over n=272 matched predictions — is the number to trust; LOOCV AUC is a ranking score only.
Top regions by AUC: caribbean_lesser_antilles 0.99 andaman_nicobar 0.97 juan_de_fuca_ridge 0.98 new_zealand 0.99 mid_atlantic_ridge 0.98

Trained on the unified Earth State Tensor (9,687 cross-physics features, hourly snapshots). Inputs include real-time gravity, solar wind, electromagnetic, oceanic, particle, fluid, atmospheric, and seismic measurements. Outputs are calibrated probabilities of M6.0+ events, cross-validated leave-one-out. Cross-validation is not a temporal holdout; see the holdout caveats above.

Scientific Skill Metrics (bounds-first matcher + magnitude calibration, April 15 2026)
Earthquake Full-Credit Hit Rate
54.3%
5171 of 9521 EQ forecasts matched an event at or above the expected magnitude threshold within the region bounding box.
+ 13.5% partial match (event occurred but below threshold) = 67.8% any-match rate
Nowcast AUC (14-day window)
0.67
Best ROC AUC: cosmic_ray. Measures whether the risk_score ranks events correctly (0.5 = random, 0.7 = skill, 0.85+ = operational grade).
  • earthquake: 0.55 (no-skill, n=8461)
  • solar_flare: 0.65 (weak, n=198)
  • cosmic_ray: 0.67 (weak, n=26)
  • geyser_eruption: 0.38 (no-skill, n=2058)
ETAS Aftershock Forecaster
51.2%
Reactive M5+ mainshock response via Omori + Gutenberg-Richter physics. 170 of 332 aftershock forecasts confirmed.
Target: 70-90% real hit rate (Reasenberg-Jones 1989 baseline)
Swarm Detector (reactive)
75.0%
Single-link spatial clustering of recent USGS catalog. Identifies active swarms that often precede volcanic eruptions and dike intrusions. 463 of 617 detected swarms confirmed.
Target: >95% real classification skill (reactive, not forecasting)
Dark Matter Modulation Search
15.1σ
Blind annual modulation search on 99 GSN stations, 822 days (0.5-2.0 Hz). Phase: DOY 195 (DAMA expects ~153).
Permutation null p=0.613 (1000 realizations). Hemisphere coherence: consistent with DM signal.

These are skill metrics measured against the new Apr 15 bounds-first matcher. Full-credit means the observed event's magnitude met or exceeded the prediction's expected range. Nowcast AUC measures whether our risk score rankings correlate with observed activity.

Seismic Hit Rate
72.5%
6513 / 8989 predictions
Geyser Hit Rate
44.2%
1173 / 2651 predictions
Other Hit Rate
20.4%
165 / 809 predictions
loading…
Geyser Eruption
942
confirmed events
B 0.8h / 0.1km
Earthquake
6513
confirmed events
B 86.6h / 1027.8km
Geyser
231
confirmed events
B 4.6h / 0.8km
Solar Flare
152
confirmed events
B 3.3h / 0.0km
Cosmic Ray
7
confirmed events
B 46.4h / 1436.5km
Ionospheric Tec
1
confirmed events
B 0.0h / 0.0km
Kp Forecast
1
confirmed events
B 5.6h / 0.0km
Wildfire
3
confirmed events
A 9.4h / 19.0km
Ionospheric
1
confirmed events
A 93.2h / 0.0km
Grading Methodology

Each confirmed prediction is graded A-F based on distance accuracy (60%) and lead time (40%). All confirmations are matched against authoritative sources (USGS, EMSC/GFZ, IRIS, GeyserTimes).

A
<100 km, 24h+
B
<300 km, 6h+
C
<500 km, 1h+
D
<1000 km
F
>1000 km

Data provenance: all observations verified against USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC/GFZ), NOAA SWPC, and GeyserTimes citizen science data. SHA-256 hash chain ensures predictions are tamper-proof and were logged before the confirming event occurred.

Map of confirmed catches — each pin is a real earthquake we forecast. Click one to find it in the table below. Showing the latest 200 of 7851 catches.
Confirmed Predictions (7851) showing latest 200 of 7851 — full data via CSV export
Date Hazard Region Risk Event Grade Lead Dist Proof Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 31.9 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 49.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Sumatra (Mentawai Gap) 78.2% M4.4 82 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia C 0.1d early 101km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc 85.0% M5.3 127 km W of Lata, Solomon Islands D 0.2d early 408km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Philippines 85.0% M4.7 61 km ESE of Mangili, Philippines D 0.1d early 856km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 85.0% M4.5 80 km W of El Aguilar, Argentina F 0.0d early 778km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Yellowstone Grand 60.0% Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 243 min) B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Solar Flare Global 85.0% M4.0 Solar flare C2.7 class B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 104.0 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.9 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 116.0 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 78.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 35.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Alaska-Aleutian Arc 85.0% M2.8 74 km ESE of Akutan, Alaska D 0.1d early 535km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Swarm -8.2 120.8 85.0% M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 0.4d early 13km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Swarm -8.1 120.7 85.0% M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 0.5d early 15km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido) 85.0% M6.0 33 km SSW of Honchō, Japan D 0.2d early 592km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Central America (Guatemala-Panama) 85.0% M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR D 0.3d early 511km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 85.0% M4.5 80 km W of El Aguilar, Argentina C 0.5d early 290km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Solar Flare Global 85.0% M4.0 Solar flare C4.1 class B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (Shallow Volcanic, <15 Km) 98.2% M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii B 0.3d early 28km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido) 68.7% M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region B 0.4d early 68km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Swarm 52.0 176.5 85.0% M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska B 0.2d early 24km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush) 84.2% M4.64 Northwestern Kashmir C 0.3d early 397km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake New Zealand 73.7% M3.3 220 km north of Te Araroa D 0.2d early 769km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo) 74.9% M3.0 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION C 0.0d early 202km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Yellowstone Fountain 56.1% Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 855 min) A 0.6d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Yellowstone Daisy 60.4% Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 55 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Earthquake Swarm -8.1 120.8 85.0% M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 0.9d early 15km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 63.8% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-23 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Swarm 52.0 176.6 85.0% M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska A 0.4d early 24km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 83.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 64.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 78.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone 85.0% M4.6 273 km E of Levuka, Fiji C 0.4d early 375km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench) 83.4% M3.41 120 km NNE of Vieques, Puerto Rico B 0.5d early 112km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles) 83.4% M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION D 0.1d early 493km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (shallow volcanic, <15 km) 49.1% M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii A 0.7d early 28km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - South 85.0% M5.3 southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge D 0.6d early 1631km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 68.7% M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR B 0.8d early 94km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 83.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 60.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake South Sandwich Islands 85.0% M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region B 1.0d early 222km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 85.0% M4.5 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA C 0.6d early 341km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Azores (Mid-Atlantic Ridge) 49.1% M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION C 0.9d early 363km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation) 68.7% M4.6 26 km E of Letpandan, Burma (Myanmar) D 0.4d early 564km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Caribbean - Lesser Antilles 49.1% M4.1 52 km N of Beauséjour, Guadeloupe B 0.7d early 295km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap 49.1% M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO C 0.5d early 329km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc 70.5% M5.39 Solomon Islands B 0.6d early 286km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands 76.6% M4.3 60 km NNW of Lae, Papua New Guinea C 0.7d early 353km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing) 49.1% M4.0 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska C 0.1d early 137km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Sumatra (Mentawai Gap) 68.7% M4.4 82 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia B 1.1d early 101km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Walker Lane / Western Nevada 49.1% M2.5 15 km ESE of Walker, California B 0.6d early 91km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea) 49.1% M2.7 UKRAINE B 1.0d early 216km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca) 68.7% M4.5 117 km SW of Puerto Madero, Mexico D 0.2d early 686km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Philippines 85.0% M4.7 61 km ESE of Mangili, Philippines C 1.1d early 856km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 85.0% M4.87 Northern Chile D 0.0d early 698km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Southern California (UCERF3) 49.1% M3.5562341085133 10 km ENE of Coso Junction, CA B 0.7d early 166km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca 85.0% M5.12 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi C 0.1d early 184km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec 85.0% M4.5 117 km SW of Puerto Madero, Mexico C 0.2d early 279km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Yellowstone Fountain 85.0% Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 293 min) B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.0 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Solar Flare Global 85.0% M4.0 Solar flare C1.4 class B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.0 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 78.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 19.9 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 78.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Alaska-Aleutian Arc 83.4% M2.9 43 km ESE of Perryville, Alaska C 0.3d early 217km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 15.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Swarm -8.1 120.7 85.0% M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 0.5d early 2km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido) 85.0% M5.8 4 km NNW of Toride, Japan C 0.3d early 294km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Central America (Guatemala-Panama) 83.4% M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR C 1.3d early 511km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M5.7 -60.3 -47.3 74.2% M6.2 Antarctica [Sea] B 0.0d early 14km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Central + North Atlantic) 85.0% M5.33 Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge D 1.1d early 1407km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 85.0% M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia C 0.5d early 614km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 85.0% M4.6 32 km NNE of Calama, Chile A 0.5d early 30km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Ryukyu / Nansei Arc (Tokara-Amami-Okinawa) 71.1% M4.4 50 km NW of Amagi, Japan B 0.5d early 245km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Swarm 19.0 -64.8 78.5% M3.41 116 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands B 0.2d early 43km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido) 50.2% M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region A 1.4d early 68km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 98.2% M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia C 0.7d early 614km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (deep tectonic, >=15 km) 83.4% M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii A 1.4d early 28km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake New Zealand 83.4% M3.4 220 km north of Te Araroa C 1.3d early 780km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 83.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 60.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-22 Earthquake Swarm -8.1 120.8 85.0% M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 0.9d early 7km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 78.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 69.9 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Swarm 52.0 176.6 85.0% M3.8 234 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska A 0.9d early 20km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Swarm -8.2 120.8 85.0% M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 1.0d early 9km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 78.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 68.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Swarm 19.3 -155.4 56.0% M2.6 13 km ENE of Pāhala, Hawaii A 1.9d early 4km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 108.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Swarm 51.9 176.9 70.7% M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska A 1.5d early 31km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake South Sandwich Islands 85.0% M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region B 2.0d early 222km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 78.9% M4.5 KAGSR C 0.1d early 204km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Azores (Mid-Atlantic Ridge) 85.0% M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION C 1.9d early 363km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush) 81.7% M4.1 26 km S of Tagāb, Afghanistan B 0.2d early 87km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation) 85.0% M4.6 26 km E of Letpandan, Burma (Myanmar) C 1.4d early 564km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central 81.2% M4.9 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge D 0.6d early 1588km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo) 78.0% M3.27 42 km S of Boca de Yuma, Dominican Republic B 0.6d early 299km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 80.4% M4.0 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA C 1.0d early 414km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap 85.0% M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO C 1.5d early 329km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Yellowstone Great Fountain 85.0% Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 278 min) B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Solar Flare Global 85.0% M4.0 Solar flare C3.4 class B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 87.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca 83.4% M5.12 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi B 1.2d early 184km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 103.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 78.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.1 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.9 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc 85.0% M5.39 Solomon Islands B 1.8d early 286km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 78.7% M4.7 147 km NE of Diego de Almagro, Chile C 0.4d early 419km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 85.0% M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia C 1.6d early 614km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 84.2% M4.6 32 km NNE of Calama, Chile A 1.5d early 30km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Macquarie Ridge / Puysegur (south of NZ) 85.0% M4.7 125 km west of Snares Islands D 0.2d early 653km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea) 85.0% M2.7 UKRAINE B 2.5d early 216km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Izu-Bonin / Ogasawara Arc 85.0% M4.5 Bonin Islands, Japan region B 0.4d early 198km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Caribbean - Lesser Antilles 78.5% M4.1 52 km N of Beauséjour, Guadeloupe B 2.2d early 295km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Italy (Apennines-Sicily) 85.0% M2.0 Mar Ionio Meridionale [Mare] B 0.8d early 72km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Solar Flare Global 85.0% M4.0 Solar flare C1.5 class B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (Shallow Volcanic, <15 Km) 98.2% M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii A 2.3d early 28km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Earthquake Philippines 83.4% M5.2 19 km W of Jabonga, Philippines D 0.2d early 486km verify Replay
2026-08-21 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 59.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Southern California (UCERF3) 46.9% M2.67 10 km E of Coso Junction, CA B 2.4d early 165km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Swarm 52.0 176.3 52.0% M3.4 234 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska B 0.1d early 4km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 32.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.9 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Swarm 19.3 -155.4 58.9% M2.6 13 km ENE of Pāhala, Hawaii A 2.9d early 2km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Swarm 51.9 176.9 75.6% M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska A 2.5d early 31km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M6.7 -14.6 -73.5 82.1% M4.4 17 km SSW of Tambo, Peru B 0.1d early 60km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M5.6 -8.3 121.4 73.4% M4.95 Flores Region, Indonesia B 0.0d early 7km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 46.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M6.7 -14.6 -73.6 82.1% M4.4 17 km SSW of Tambo, Peru B 0.1d early 53km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Fiji / Lau Basin deep zone 85.0% M4.3 south of the Fiji Islands B 0.9d early 274km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Sumatra (Mentawai Gap) 72.6% M3.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA B 0.3d early 73km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Taiwan 77.5% M4.4 49 km SE of Yilan, Taiwan B 1.4d early 122km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Azores (Mid-Atlantic Ridge) 85.0% M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION B 2.9d early 363km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Turkey (Anatolian Plate) 85.0% M4.2 CENTRAL TURKEY C 0.4d early 275km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo) 84.1% M3.0 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC B 0.6d early 280km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Yellowstone Great Fountain 85.0% Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 334 min) B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.0 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Solar Flare Global 85.0% M4.0 Solar flare C2.4 class B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 55.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction) 83.4% M4.9 Kermadec Islands region B 1.0d early 197km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Bonin (Ogasawara) Islands 49.1% M4.5 Bonin Islands, Japan region B 1.1d early 169km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Cascadia Subduction Zone 49.1% M2.9 Canyondam, CA D 0.1d early 546km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc 85.0% M5.39 Solomon Islands B 2.9d early 286km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Alaska-Aleutian Arc 85.0% M3.1 72 km SSW of Ugashik, Alaska B 0.6d early 149km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 85.0% M4.7 147 km NE of Diego de Almagro, Chile C 1.5d early 419km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido) 85.0% M5.8 4 km NNW of Toride, Japan B 2.2d early 294km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (shallow volcanic, <15 km) 49.1% M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii A 3.0d early 28km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central 49.1% M4.9 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge D 1.8d early 1588km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca) 56.6% M4.4 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO C 0.4d early 436km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec 85.0% M4.2 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO C 0.0d early 267km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 77.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 85.0% M4.52 Northwest of Kuril Islands C 1.1d early 757km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Ryukyu / Nansei Arc (Tokara-Amami-Okinawa) 85.0% M4.8 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN B 0.6d early 167km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation) 83.4% M4.4 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION A 1.0d early 92km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 83.4% M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR A 3.3d early 94km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Mariana Trench 83.4% M4.5 85 km N of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands B 0.6d early 182km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Central America (Guatemala-Panama) 83.4% M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR C 3.3d early 511km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush) 85.0% M4.4 17 km W of Ashkāsham, Afghanistan B 2.6d early 205km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench) 49.1% M3.4 109 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands A 1.3d early 93km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles) 49.1% M3.27 42 km S of Boca de Yuma, Dominican Republic B 2.1d early 477km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake South Sandwich Islands 85.0% M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region B 3.5d early 222km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands 72.8% M4.3 60 km NNW of Lae, Papua New Guinea B 3.2d early 353km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 71.9% M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia C 2.6d early 614km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake New Zealand - North (Hikurangi) 79.2% M3.7 300 km north of Te Araroa C 0.7d early 396km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap 85.0% M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO B 3.0d early 329km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido) 80.4% M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region A 3.3d early 68km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake 25 Km Nne Of Ruteng, Indonesia 85.0% M4.6 26 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 0.9d early 2km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake 32 Km Nne Of Ruteng, Indonesia 85.0% M4.5 35 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 1.1d early 5km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Solar Flare Global 85.0% M4.0 Solar flare C3.1 class B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Italy (Apennines-Sicily) 83.4% M2.8 SICILY, ITALY D 0.1d early 450km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M5.7 -8.4 120.6 74.2% M4.5 35 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 1.2d early 5km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (deep tectonic, >=15 km) 83.4% M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii A 3.4d early 28km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Earthquake Swarm 18.1 -67.2 56.0% M2.55 11 km SSE of Maria Antonia, Puerto Rico A 2.8d early 42km verify Replay
2026-08-20 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.9 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M5.8 -8.4 120.5 75.0% M4.6 26 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia A 1.2d early 2km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.9 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Earthquake Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea) 48.6% M2.7 UKRAINE B 3.9d early 216km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Earthquake Swarm 51.9 176.9 72.6% M3.0 276 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska B 0.2d early 2km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Earthquake Tibetan Plateau / Pamir 66.1% M5.2 270 km SSE of Dunhuang, China D 0.7d early 1047km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Earthquake Macquarie Ridge / Puysegur (south of NZ) 85.0% M4.7 125 km west of Snares Islands C 1.7d early 653km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Geyser Yellowstone Great Fountain 80.5% Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 646 min) A 0.5d early 0km verify Replay
2026-08-19 Geyser Yellowstone Grand 57.7% Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 282 min) B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 31.9 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 31.9 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 49.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 49.6 min)
Earthquake C
2026-08-23
M4.4 82 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
region: Sumatra (Mentawai Gap)
caught 0.1 days early
78% risk 101km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 82 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
Earthquake D
2026-08-23
M5.3 127 km W of Lata, Solomon Islands
region: Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 408km away verify
Confirmed: M5.3 127 km W of Lata, Solomon Islands
Earthquake D
2026-08-23
M4.7 61 km ESE of Mangili, Philippines
region: Philippines
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 856km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 61 km ESE of Mangili, Philippines
Earthquake F
2026-08-23
M4.5 80 km W of El Aguilar, Argentina
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 778km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 80 km W of El Aguilar, Argentina
Geyser B
2026-08-23
Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 243 min)
region: Yellowstone Grand
caught 0.2 days early
60% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 243 min)
Solar Flare B
2026-08-23
M4.0 Solar flare C2.7 class
region: Global
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C2.7 class
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 104.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 104.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.9 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.9 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 116.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 116.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 35.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 35.0 min)
Earthquake D
2026-08-23
M2.8 74 km ESE of Akutan, Alaska
region: Alaska-Aleutian Arc
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 535km away verify
Confirmed: M2.8 74 km ESE of Akutan, Alaska
Earthquake A
2026-08-23
M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Swarm -8.2 120.8
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 13km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.0 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-23
M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Swarm -8.1 120.7
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 15km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Earthquake D
2026-08-23
M6.0 33 km SSW of Honchō, Japan
region: Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido)
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 592km away verify
Confirmed: M6.0 33 km SSW of Honchō, Japan
Earthquake D
2026-08-23
M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
region: Central America (Guatemala-Panama)
caught 0.3 days early
85% risk 511km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
Earthquake C
2026-08-23
M4.5 80 km W of El Aguilar, Argentina
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 290km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 80 km W of El Aguilar, Argentina
Solar Flare B
2026-08-23
M4.0 Solar flare C4.1 class
region: Global
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C4.1 class
Earthquake B
2026-08-23
M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (Shallow Volcanic, <15 Km)
caught 0.3 days early
98% risk 28km away verify
Confirmed: M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
Earthquake B
2026-08-23
M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region
region: NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido)
caught 0.4 days early
69% risk 68km away verify
Confirmed: M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region
Earthquake B
2026-08-23
M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Swarm 52.0 176.5
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 24km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Earthquake C
2026-08-23
M4.64 Northwestern Kashmir
region: Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush)
caught 0.3 days early
84% risk 397km away verify
Confirmed: M4.64 Northwestern Kashmir
Earthquake D
2026-08-23
M3.3 220 km north of Te Araroa
region: New Zealand
caught 0.2 days early
74% risk 769km away verify
Confirmed: M3.3 220 km north of Te Araroa
Earthquake C
2026-08-23
M3.0 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
region: Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo)
caught 0.0 days early
75% risk 202km away verify
Confirmed: M3.0 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
Geyser A
2026-08-23
Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 855 min)
region: Yellowstone Fountain
caught 0.6 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 855 min)
Geyser B
2026-08-23
Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 55 min)
region: Yellowstone Daisy
caught 0.0 days early
60% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 55 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-23
M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Swarm -8.1 120.8
caught 0.9 days early
85% risk 15km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 48 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
64% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-23
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.0 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-22
M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Swarm 52.0 176.6
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 24km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
83% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 64.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 64.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.0 min)
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.6 273 km E of Levuka, Fiji
region: Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 375km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 273 km E of Levuka, Fiji
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M3.41 120 km NNE of Vieques, Puerto Rico
region: Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench)
caught 0.5 days early
83% risk 112km away verify
Confirmed: M3.41 120 km NNE of Vieques, Puerto Rico
Earthquake D
2026-08-22
M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
region: Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles)
caught 0.1 days early
83% risk 493km away verify
Confirmed: M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
Earthquake A
2026-08-22
M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (shallow volcanic, <15 km)
caught 0.7 days early
49% risk 28km away verify
Confirmed: M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
Earthquake D
2026-08-22
M5.3 southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - South
caught 0.6 days early
85% risk 1631km away verify
Confirmed: M5.3 southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 0.8 days early
69% risk 94km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
83% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 60.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 60.0 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region
region: South Sandwich Islands
caught 1.0 days early
85% risk 222km away verify
Confirmed: M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.5 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 0.6 days early
85% risk 341km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
region: Azores (Mid-Atlantic Ridge)
caught 0.9 days early
49% risk 363km away verify
Confirmed: M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
Earthquake D
2026-08-22
M4.6 26 km E of Letpandan, Burma (Myanmar)
region: Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation)
caught 0.4 days early
69% risk 564km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 26 km E of Letpandan, Burma (Myanmar)
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M4.1 52 km N of Beauséjour, Guadeloupe
region: Caribbean - Lesser Antilles
caught 0.7 days early
49% risk 295km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 52 km N of Beauséjour, Guadeloupe
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap
caught 0.5 days early
49% risk 329km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M5.39 Solomon Islands
region: Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc
caught 0.6 days early
70% risk 286km away verify
Confirmed: M5.39 Solomon Islands
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.3 60 km NNW of Lae, Papua New Guinea
region: Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands
caught 0.7 days early
77% risk 353km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 60 km NNW of Lae, Papua New Guinea
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.0 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing)
caught 0.1 days early
49% risk 137km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M4.4 82 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
region: Sumatra (Mentawai Gap)
caught 1.1 days early
69% risk 101km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 82 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M2.5 15 km ESE of Walker, California
region: Walker Lane / Western Nevada
caught 0.6 days early
49% risk 91km away verify
Confirmed: M2.5 15 km ESE of Walker, California
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M2.7 UKRAINE
region: Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea)
caught 1.0 days early
49% risk 216km away verify
Confirmed: M2.7 UKRAINE
Earthquake D
2026-08-22
M4.5 117 km SW of Puerto Madero, Mexico
region: Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca)
caught 0.2 days early
69% risk 686km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 117 km SW of Puerto Madero, Mexico
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.7 61 km ESE of Mangili, Philippines
region: Philippines
caught 1.1 days early
85% risk 856km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 61 km ESE of Mangili, Philippines
Earthquake D
2026-08-22
M4.87 Northern Chile
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 698km away verify
Confirmed: M4.87 Northern Chile
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M3.5562341085133 10 km ENE of Coso Junction, CA
region: Southern California (UCERF3)
caught 0.7 days early
49% risk 166km away verify
Confirmed: M3.5562341085133 10 km ENE of Coso Junction, CA
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M5.12 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 184km away verify
Confirmed: M5.12 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.5 117 km SW of Puerto Madero, Mexico
region: Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 279km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 117 km SW of Puerto Madero, Mexico
Geyser B
2026-08-22
Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 293 min)
region: Yellowstone Fountain
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 293 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.0 min)
Solar Flare B
2026-08-22
M4.0 Solar flare C1.4 class
region: Global
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C1.4 class
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 10.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 19.9 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 19.9 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.0 min)
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M2.9 43 km ESE of Perryville, Alaska
region: Alaska-Aleutian Arc
caught 0.3 days early
83% risk 217km away verify
Confirmed: M2.9 43 km ESE of Perryville, Alaska
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 15.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 15.0 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-22
M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Swarm -8.1 120.7
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 2km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M5.8 4 km NNW of Toride, Japan
region: Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido)
caught 0.3 days early
85% risk 294km away verify
Confirmed: M5.8 4 km NNW of Toride, Japan
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
region: Central America (Guatemala-Panama)
caught 1.3 days early
83% risk 511km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M6.2 Antarctica [Sea]
region: Aftershock Zone M5.7 -60.3 -47.3
caught 0.0 days early
74% risk 14km away verify
Confirmed: M6.2 Antarctica [Sea]
Earthquake D
2026-08-22
M5.33 Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Central + North Atlantic)
caught 1.1 days early
85% risk 1407km away verify
Confirmed: M5.33 Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 614km away verify
Confirmed: M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia
Earthquake A
2026-08-22
M4.6 32 km NNE of Calama, Chile
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 30km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 32 km NNE of Calama, Chile
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M4.4 50 km NW of Amagi, Japan
region: Ryukyu / Nansei Arc (Tokara-Amami-Okinawa)
caught 0.5 days early
71% risk 245km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 50 km NW of Amagi, Japan
Earthquake B
2026-08-22
M3.41 116 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
region: Swarm 19.0 -64.8
caught 0.2 days early
79% risk 43km away verify
Confirmed: M3.41 116 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
Earthquake A
2026-08-22
M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region
region: NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido)
caught 1.4 days early
50% risk 68km away verify
Confirmed: M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 0.7 days early
98% risk 614km away verify
Confirmed: M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia
Earthquake A
2026-08-22
M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (deep tectonic, >=15 km)
caught 1.4 days early
83% risk 28km away verify
Confirmed: M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
Earthquake C
2026-08-22
M3.4 220 km north of Te Araroa
region: New Zealand
caught 1.3 days early
83% risk 780km away verify
Confirmed: M3.4 220 km north of Te Araroa
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
83% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.8 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-22
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 60.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 60.8 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-22
M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Swarm -8.1 120.8
caught 0.9 days early
85% risk 7km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 69.9 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 69.9 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-21
M3.8 234 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Swarm 52.0 176.6
caught 0.9 days early
85% risk 20km away verify
Confirmed: M3.8 234 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Earthquake A
2026-08-21
M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Swarm -8.2 120.8
caught 1.0 days early
85% risk 9km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 62 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 68.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 68.0 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-21
M2.6 13 km ENE of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Swarm 19.3 -155.4
caught 1.9 days early
56% risk 4km away verify
Confirmed: M2.6 13 km ENE of Pāhala, Hawaii
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 108.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 108.8 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-21
M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Swarm 51.9 176.9
caught 1.5 days early
71% risk 31km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region
region: South Sandwich Islands
caught 2.0 days early
85% risk 222km away verify
Confirmed: M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region
Earthquake C
2026-08-21
M4.5 KAGSR
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 0.1 days early
79% risk 204km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 KAGSR
Earthquake C
2026-08-21
M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
region: Azores (Mid-Atlantic Ridge)
caught 1.9 days early
85% risk 363km away verify
Confirmed: M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M4.1 26 km S of Tagāb, Afghanistan
region: Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush)
caught 0.2 days early
82% risk 87km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 26 km S of Tagāb, Afghanistan
Earthquake C
2026-08-21
M4.6 26 km E of Letpandan, Burma (Myanmar)
region: Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation)
caught 1.4 days early
85% risk 564km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 26 km E of Letpandan, Burma (Myanmar)
Earthquake D
2026-08-21
M4.9 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central
caught 0.6 days early
81% risk 1588km away verify
Confirmed: M4.9 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M3.27 42 km S of Boca de Yuma, Dominican Republic
region: Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo)
caught 0.6 days early
78% risk 299km away verify
Confirmed: M3.27 42 km S of Boca de Yuma, Dominican Republic
Earthquake C
2026-08-21
M4.0 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 1.0 days early
80% risk 414km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
Earthquake C
2026-08-21
M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap
caught 1.5 days early
85% risk 329km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
Geyser B
2026-08-21
Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 278 min)
region: Yellowstone Great Fountain
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 278 min)
Solar Flare B
2026-08-21
M4.0 Solar flare C3.4 class
region: Global
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C3.4 class
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 87.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 87.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M5.12 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca
caught 1.2 days early
83% risk 184km away verify
Confirmed: M5.12 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 103.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 103.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.8 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.1 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.1 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.9 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.9 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M5.39 Solomon Islands
region: Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc
caught 1.8 days early
85% risk 286km away verify
Confirmed: M5.39 Solomon Islands
Earthquake C
2026-08-21
M4.7 147 km NE of Diego de Almagro, Chile
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 0.4 days early
79% risk 419km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 147 km NE of Diego de Almagro, Chile
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.0 min)
Earthquake C
2026-08-21
M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 1.6 days early
85% risk 614km away verify
Confirmed: M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia
Earthquake A
2026-08-21
M4.6 32 km NNE of Calama, Chile
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 1.5 days early
84% risk 30km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 32 km NNE of Calama, Chile
Earthquake D
2026-08-21
M4.7 125 km west of Snares Islands
region: Macquarie Ridge / Puysegur (south of NZ)
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 653km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 125 km west of Snares Islands
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M2.7 UKRAINE
region: Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea)
caught 2.5 days early
85% risk 216km away verify
Confirmed: M2.7 UKRAINE
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M4.5 Bonin Islands, Japan region
region: Izu-Bonin / Ogasawara Arc
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 198km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 Bonin Islands, Japan region
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M4.1 52 km N of Beauséjour, Guadeloupe
region: Caribbean - Lesser Antilles
caught 2.2 days early
79% risk 295km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 52 km N of Beauséjour, Guadeloupe
Earthquake B
2026-08-21
M2.0 Mar Ionio Meridionale [Mare]
region: Italy (Apennines-Sicily)
caught 0.8 days early
85% risk 72km away verify
Confirmed: M2.0 Mar Ionio Meridionale [Mare]
Solar Flare B
2026-08-21
M4.0 Solar flare C1.5 class
region: Global
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C1.5 class
Earthquake A
2026-08-21
M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (Shallow Volcanic, <15 Km)
caught 2.3 days early
98% risk 28km away verify
Confirmed: M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
Earthquake D
2026-08-21
M5.2 19 km W of Jabonga, Philippines
region: Philippines
caught 0.2 days early
83% risk 486km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 19 km W of Jabonga, Philippines
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-21
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 59.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 59.0 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M2.67 10 km E of Coso Junction, CA
region: Southern California (UCERF3)
caught 2.4 days early
47% risk 165km away verify
Confirmed: M2.67 10 km E of Coso Junction, CA
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M3.4 234 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Swarm 52.0 176.3
caught 0.1 days early
52% risk 4km away verify
Confirmed: M3.4 234 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 32.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 32.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.9 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.9 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M2.6 13 km ENE of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Swarm 19.3 -155.4
caught 2.9 days early
59% risk 2km away verify
Confirmed: M2.6 13 km ENE of Pāhala, Hawaii
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Swarm 51.9 176.9
caught 2.5 days early
76% risk 31km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 261 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.4 17 km SSW of Tambo, Peru
region: Aftershock Zone M6.7 -14.6 -73.5
caught 0.1 days early
82% risk 60km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 17 km SSW of Tambo, Peru
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.95 Flores Region, Indonesia
region: Aftershock Zone M5.6 -8.3 121.4
caught 0.0 days early
73% risk 7km away verify
Confirmed: M4.95 Flores Region, Indonesia
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 46.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 46.8 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.4 17 km SSW of Tambo, Peru
region: Aftershock Zone M6.7 -14.6 -73.6
caught 0.1 days early
82% risk 53km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 17 km SSW of Tambo, Peru
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.3 south of the Fiji Islands
region: Fiji / Lau Basin deep zone
caught 0.9 days early
85% risk 274km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 south of the Fiji Islands
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M3.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
region: Sumatra (Mentawai Gap)
caught 0.3 days early
73% risk 73km away verify
Confirmed: M3.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.4 49 km SE of Yilan, Taiwan
region: Taiwan
caught 1.4 days early
77% risk 122km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 49 km SE of Yilan, Taiwan
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
region: Azores (Mid-Atlantic Ridge)
caught 2.9 days early
85% risk 363km away verify
Confirmed: M2.5 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
Earthquake C
2026-08-20
M4.2 CENTRAL TURKEY
region: Turkey (Anatolian Plate)
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 275km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 CENTRAL TURKEY
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M3.0 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
region: Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo)
caught 0.6 days early
84% risk 280km away verify
Confirmed: M3.0 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Geyser B
2026-08-20
Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 334 min)
region: Yellowstone Great Fountain
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 334 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.0 min)
Solar Flare B
2026-08-20
M4.0 Solar flare C2.4 class
region: Global
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C2.4 class
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 55.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 55.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.0 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.9 Kermadec Islands region
region: Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction)
caught 1.0 days early
83% risk 197km away verify
Confirmed: M4.9 Kermadec Islands region
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.5 Bonin Islands, Japan region
region: Bonin (Ogasawara) Islands
caught 1.1 days early
49% risk 169km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 Bonin Islands, Japan region
Earthquake D
2026-08-20
M2.9 Canyondam, CA
region: Cascadia Subduction Zone
caught 0.1 days early
49% risk 546km away verify
Confirmed: M2.9 Canyondam, CA
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M5.39 Solomon Islands
region: Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc
caught 2.9 days early
85% risk 286km away verify
Confirmed: M5.39 Solomon Islands
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M3.1 72 km SSW of Ugashik, Alaska
region: Alaska-Aleutian Arc
caught 0.6 days early
85% risk 149km away verify
Confirmed: M3.1 72 km SSW of Ugashik, Alaska
Earthquake C
2026-08-20
M4.7 147 km NE of Diego de Almagro, Chile
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 1.5 days early
85% risk 419km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 147 km NE of Diego de Almagro, Chile
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M5.8 4 km NNW of Toride, Japan
region: Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido)
caught 2.2 days early
85% risk 294km away verify
Confirmed: M5.8 4 km NNW of Toride, Japan
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (shallow volcanic, <15 km)
caught 3.0 days early
49% risk 28km away verify
Confirmed: M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
Earthquake D
2026-08-20
M4.9 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central
caught 1.8 days early
49% risk 1588km away verify
Confirmed: M4.9 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake C
2026-08-20
M4.4 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca)
caught 0.4 days early
57% risk 436km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
Earthquake C
2026-08-20
M4.2 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 267km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 77.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 77.8 min)
Earthquake C
2026-08-20
M4.52 Northwest of Kuril Islands
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 1.1 days early
85% risk 757km away verify
Confirmed: M4.52 Northwest of Kuril Islands
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.8 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
region: Ryukyu / Nansei Arc (Tokara-Amami-Okinawa)
caught 0.6 days early
85% risk 167km away verify
Confirmed: M4.8 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M4.4 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
region: Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation)
caught 1.0 days early
83% risk 92km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 3.3 days early
83% risk 94km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.5 85 km N of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands
region: Mariana Trench
caught 0.6 days early
83% risk 182km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 85 km N of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands
Earthquake C
2026-08-20
M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
region: Central America (Guatemala-Panama)
caught 3.3 days early
83% risk 511km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.4 17 km W of Ashkāsham, Afghanistan
region: Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush)
caught 2.6 days early
85% risk 205km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 17 km W of Ashkāsham, Afghanistan
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M3.4 109 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
region: Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench)
caught 1.3 days early
49% risk 93km away verify
Confirmed: M3.4 109 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M3.27 42 km S of Boca de Yuma, Dominican Republic
region: Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles)
caught 2.1 days early
49% risk 477km away verify
Confirmed: M3.27 42 km S of Boca de Yuma, Dominican Republic
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region
region: South Sandwich Islands
caught 3.5 days early
85% risk 222km away verify
Confirmed: M5.15 South Sandwich Islands Region
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.3 60 km NNW of Lae, Papua New Guinea
region: Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands
caught 3.2 days early
73% risk 353km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 60 km NNW of Lae, Papua New Guinea
Earthquake C
2026-08-20
M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 2.6 days early
72% risk 614km away verify
Confirmed: M4.9 78 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia
Earthquake C
2026-08-20
M3.7 300 km north of Te Araroa
region: New Zealand - North (Hikurangi)
caught 0.7 days early
79% risk 396km away verify
Confirmed: M3.7 300 km north of Te Araroa
Earthquake B
2026-08-20
M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap
caught 3.0 days early
85% risk 329km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region
region: NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido)
caught 3.3 days early
80% risk 68km away verify
Confirmed: M5.92 Hokkaido, Japan Region
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M4.6 26 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: 25 Km Nne Of Ruteng, Indonesia
caught 0.9 days early
85% risk 2km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 26 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M4.5 35 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: 32 Km Nne Of Ruteng, Indonesia
caught 1.1 days early
85% risk 5km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 35 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Solar Flare B
2026-08-20
M4.0 Solar flare C3.1 class
region: Global
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C3.1 class
Earthquake D
2026-08-20
M2.8 SICILY, ITALY
region: Italy (Apennines-Sicily)
caught 0.1 days early
83% risk 450km away verify
Confirmed: M2.8 SICILY, ITALY
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M4.5 35 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Aftershock Zone M5.7 -8.4 120.6
caught 1.2 days early
74% risk 5km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 35 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (deep tectonic, >=15 km)
caught 3.4 days early
83% risk 28km away verify
Confirmed: M3.17 18 km N of Pāhala, Hawaii
Earthquake A
2026-08-20
M2.55 11 km SSE of Maria Antonia, Puerto Rico
region: Swarm 18.1 -67.2
caught 2.8 days early
56% risk 42km away verify
Confirmed: M2.55 11 km SSE of Maria Antonia, Puerto Rico
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-20
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.9 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.9 min)
Earthquake A
2026-08-19
M4.6 26 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Aftershock Zone M5.8 -8.4 120.5
caught 1.2 days early
75% risk 2km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 26 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-19
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.8 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-19
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.9 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.9 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-19
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.0 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-19
M2.7 UKRAINE
region: Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea)
caught 3.9 days early
49% risk 216km away verify
Confirmed: M2.7 UKRAINE
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-19
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.8 min)
Earthquake B
2026-08-19
M3.0 276 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Swarm 51.9 176.9
caught 0.2 days early
73% risk 2km away verify
Confirmed: M3.0 276 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Earthquake D
2026-08-19
M5.2 270 km SSE of Dunhuang, China
region: Tibetan Plateau / Pamir
caught 0.7 days early
66% risk 1047km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 270 km SSE of Dunhuang, China
Geyser Eruption B
2026-08-19
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.8 min)
Earthquake C
2026-08-19
M4.7 125 km west of Snares Islands
region: Macquarie Ridge / Puysegur (south of NZ)
caught 1.7 days early
85% risk 653km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 125 km west of Snares Islands
Geyser A
2026-08-19
Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 646 min)
region: Yellowstone Great Fountain
caught 0.5 days early
80% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 646 min)
Geyser B
2026-08-19
Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 282 min)
region: Yellowstone Grand
caught 0.2 days early
58% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 282 min)
Historical Backtest Results

Models backtested against 21 days of historical USGS data.

RegionTPFPFNPrecisionRecallF1
oklahoma 2 26 0 7.1% 100.0% 13.3%
samoa 1 3 0 25.0% 100.0% 40.0%
ucerf3 8 26 0 23.5% 100.0% 38.1%
cascadia 1 27 0 3.6% 100.0% 6.9%
wasatch 1 27 0 3.6% 100.0% 6.9%
new_madrid 0 24 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
central_utah 0 2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
hurricane_fault 0 2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
alaska 0 4 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Verification Methodology

Every prediction is SHA-256 hashed at creation time and added to a tamper-proof hash chain. When a real-world event occurs (confirmed by USGS, NOAA, EMSC, NASA FIRMS, or NWS), the system automatically matches it against pre-existing predictions within 300km and 7 days.

Grading: A (80+ pts) to F (<20 pts) based on distance accuracy (0-50 pts) + prediction lead time (0-50 pts). Grade A requires <50km distance accuracy AND 72+ hours of advance warning.