Prediction Track Record
Cryptographically verified predictions matched against real-world events. Every prediction is SHA-256 hashed before the event occurs.
1739
Total Predictions
164
Confirmed
C
Avg Grade
23.1h
Avg Lead Time
170.8km
Avg Distance
9.4%
Confirmation Rate
Geyser Eruption
13
confirmed events
C
0.2h / 0.0km
Solar Flare
4
confirmed events
C
1.9h / 0.0km
Geyser
3
confirmed events
C
0.7h / 0.0km
Wildfire
3
confirmed events
B
9.4h / 19.0km
Earthquake
127
confirmed events
C
14.9h / 220.2km
Cosmic Ray
14
confirmed events
A
132.7h / 0.0km
Confirmed Predictions (164)
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-27
yellowstone
78% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-27
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Solar Flare
B
2026-03-27
Sun_Earth
65% risk
3h lead
0km
Confirmed: M4.0 Sun_Earth
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-27
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-27
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-27
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-27
yellowstone
67% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-27
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-26
yellowstone
49% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-26
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-26
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-26
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Geyser Eruption
C
2026-03-26
yellowstone
85% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Solar Flare
B
2026-03-26
Sun_Earth
65% risk
2h lead
0km
Confirmed: M4.0 Sun_Earth
Geyser Eruption
B
2026-03-26
yellowstone
85% risk
1h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 yellowstone
Solar Flare
C
2026-03-26
Sun_Earth
65% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M4.0 Sun_Earth
Solar Flare
B
2026-03-26
Sun_Earth
65% risk
2h lead
0km
Confirmed: M4.0 Sun_Earth
Geyser
C
2026-03-26
Yellowstone_NP
70% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 Yellowstone_NP
Geyser
C
2026-03-25
Yellowstone_NP
70% risk
0h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 Yellowstone_NP
Geyser
B
2026-03-25
Yellowstone_NP
70% risk
2h lead
0km
Confirmed: M0.0 Yellowstone_NP
Wildfire
B
2026-03-25
Utah - Millard County
37% risk
11h lead
20km
Confirmed: M0.0 Utah - Millard County
Wildfire
B
2026-03-25
Utah - Juab County
48% risk
11h lead
16km
Confirmed: M0.0 Utah - Juab County
Earthquake
C
2026-03-25
Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
60% risk
1h lead
184km
Confirmed: M4.6 Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
Earthquake
C
2026-03-25
Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
60% risk
1h lead
177km
Confirmed: M4.83 Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
Earthquake
C
2026-03-25
Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
28% risk
13h lead
263km
Confirmed: M4.9 Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
Earthquake
C
2026-03-25
Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
28% risk
13h lead
266km
Confirmed: M5.07 Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
Earthquake
C
2026-03-25
Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
28% risk
13h lead
266km
Confirmed: M4.94 Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
Cosmic Ray
B
2026-03-24
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
12h lead
0km
Confirmed: M5.33 Yangbajing, Tibet
Earthquake
B
2026-03-24
Salton Sea Geothermal (California)
100% risk
25h lead
157km
Confirmed: M3.3 Salton Sea Geothermal (California)
Wildfire
B
2026-03-24
Utah - Millard County
42% risk
6h lead
20km
Confirmed: M0.0 Utah - Millard County
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
alaska
64% risk
1h lead
236km
Confirmed: M2.1 alaska
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
alaska
64% risk
1h lead
334km
Confirmed: M2.8 alaska
Earthquake
C
2026-03-23
ucerf3
64% risk
2h lead
160km
Confirmed: M0.69 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-23
ucerf3
64% risk
2h lead
121km
Confirmed: M1.11 ucerf3
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
alaska
64% risk
7h lead
236km
Confirmed: M2.1 alaska
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
samoa
49% risk
0h lead
142km
Confirmed: M4.9 samoa
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
alaska
64% risk
7h lead
334km
Confirmed: M2.8 alaska
Earthquake
B
2026-03-23
alaska
64% risk
60h lead
172km
Confirmed: M2.5 alaska
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
samoa
49% risk
0h lead
142km
Confirmed: M4.9 samoa
Earthquake
C
2026-03-23
samoa
49% risk
16h lead
196km
Confirmed: M4.9 samoa
Earthquake
C
2026-03-23
samoa
49% risk
15h lead
195km
Confirmed: M4.8 samoa
Earthquake
C
2026-03-23
samoa
49% risk
16h lead
186km
Confirmed: M4.97 samoa
Earthquake
C
2026-03-23
samoa
49% risk
4h lead
177km
Confirmed: M5.07 samoa
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
samoa
49% risk
0h lead
166km
Confirmed: M5.11 samoa
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
cascadia
100% risk
5h lead
646km
Confirmed: M0.66 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-23
ucerf3
64% risk
5h lead
173km
Confirmed: M1.17 ucerf3
Earthquake
D
2026-03-23
cascadia
100% risk
8h lead
648km
Confirmed: M0.7 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-23
ucerf3
64% risk
5h lead
112km
Confirmed: M1.44 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
wasatch
34% risk
1h lead
133km
Confirmed: M0.71 wasatch
Earthquake
D
2026-03-22
cascadia
86% risk
18h lead
648km
Confirmed: M1.32 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
wasatch
34% risk
2h lead
133km
Confirmed: M0.71 wasatch
Earthquake
B
2026-03-22
ucerf3
64% risk
16h lead
53km
Confirmed: M1.19 ucerf3
Earthquake
D
2026-03-22
cascadia
86% risk
18h lead
645km
Confirmed: M0.71 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
ucerf3
64% risk
17h lead
141km
Confirmed: M1.46 ucerf3
Earthquake
B
2026-03-22
oklahoma
30% risk
20h lead
29km
Confirmed: M2.61 oklahoma
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
wasatch
34% risk
7h lead
133km
Confirmed: M1.83 wasatch
Earthquake
D
2026-03-22
cascadia
86% risk
4h lead
494km
Confirmed: M1.74 cascadia
Earthquake
B
2026-03-22
oklahoma
30% risk
19h lead
28km
Confirmed: M2.97 oklahoma
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
wasatch
34% risk
7h lead
133km
Confirmed: M1.8 wasatch
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
ucerf3
64% risk
24h lead
121km
Confirmed: M1.11 ucerf3
Earthquake
D
2026-03-22
cascadia
86% risk
5h lead
304km
Confirmed: M1.86000001 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
ucerf3
64% risk
16h lead
137km
Confirmed: M2.34 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
hurricane_fault
68% risk
3h lead
180km
Confirmed: M2.25 hurricane_fault
Earthquake
D
2026-03-22
central_utah
79% risk
5h lead
259km
Confirmed: M1.13 central_utah
Earthquake
A
2026-03-22
oklahoma
30% risk
26h lead
29km
Confirmed: M2.61 oklahoma
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
wasatch
34% risk
13h lead
133km
Confirmed: M1.83 wasatch
Earthquake
D
2026-03-22
cascadia
86% risk
12h lead
503km
Confirmed: M2.07 cascadia
Earthquake
B
2026-03-22
new_madrid
34% risk
23h lead
5km
Confirmed: M1.28 new_madrid
Earthquake
D
2026-03-22
hurricane_fault
68% risk
10h lead
286km
Confirmed: M1.76 hurricane_fault
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
central_utah
79% risk
3h lead
144km
Confirmed: M2.25 central_utah
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
central_utah
79% risk
30h lead
255km
Confirmed: M2.8 central_utah
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
ucerf3
64% risk
25h lead
239km
Confirmed: M2.18 ucerf3
Earthquake
A
2026-03-22
oklahoma
30% risk
25h lead
29km
Confirmed: M2.61 oklahoma
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
wasatch
34% risk
13h lead
133km
Confirmed: M1.8 wasatch
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
cascadia
86% risk
26h lead
331km
Confirmed: M1.552602767944336 cascadia
Earthquake
B
2026-03-22
new_madrid
34% risk
14h lead
18km
Confirmed: M2.04 new_madrid
Earthquake
C
2026-03-22
ucerf3
64% risk
25h lead
293km
Confirmed: M2.37 ucerf3
Earthquake
B
2026-03-22
ucerf3
64% risk
64h lead
124km
Confirmed: M2.52 ucerf3
Earthquake
B
2026-03-22
ucerf3
64% risk
63h lead
194km
Confirmed: M2.89 ucerf3
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
117h lead
0km
Confirmed: M6.67 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
120h lead
0km
Confirmed: M7.0 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
123h lead
0km
Confirmed: M6.0 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
126h lead
0km
Confirmed: M5.0 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
150h lead
0km
Confirmed: M5.0 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
153h lead
0km
Confirmed: M6.67 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
156h lead
0km
Confirmed: M6.0 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
159h lead
0km
Confirmed: M6.67 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
162h lead
0km
Confirmed: M6.33 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
165h lead
0km
Confirmed: M6.33 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
183h lead
0km
Confirmed: M5.0 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Yangbajing, Tibet
100% risk
114h lead
0km
Confirmed: M5.67 Yangbajing, Tibet
Cosmic Ray
A
2026-03-15
Mendoza, Argentina
43% risk
116h lead
0km
Confirmed: M5.67 Mendoza, Argentina
Earthquake
A
2026-03-09
oklahoma
66% risk
102h lead
30km
Confirmed: M2.46 oklahoma
Earthquake
B
2026-03-09
wasatch
73% risk
155h lead
474km
Confirmed: M2.39 wasatch
Earthquake
B
2026-03-09
cascadia
66% risk
159h lead
273km
Confirmed: M4.3 cascadia
Earthquake
A
2026-03-09
new_madrid
72% risk
66h lead
7km
Confirmed: M1.34 new_madrid
Earthquake
A
2026-03-09
ucerf3
72% risk
162h lead
198km
Confirmed: M2.51 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
38km
Confirmed: M1.43 oklahoma
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
201km
Confirmed: M1.8900000000000001 cascadia
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
406km
Confirmed: M2.38 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
38km
Confirmed: M1.21 oklahoma
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
245km
Confirmed: M1.24 wasatch
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
227km
Confirmed: M2.22 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
31km
Confirmed: M1.19 oklahoma
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
245km
Confirmed: M1.56 wasatch
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
67km
Confirmed: M1.6300000000000001 cascadia
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
406km
Confirmed: M2.77 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
32km
Confirmed: M1.78 oklahoma
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
245km
Confirmed: M2.13 wasatch
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
335km
Confirmed: M2.86 cascadia
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
380km
Confirmed: M2.7 ucerf3
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
414km
Confirmed: M2.1 oklahoma
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
472km
Confirmed: M2.59 wasatch
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
423km
Confirmed: M2.42 cascadia
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
407km
Confirmed: M2.99 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
32km
Confirmed: M1.59 oklahoma
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
425km
Confirmed: M2.79 wasatch
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
272km
Confirmed: M1.76 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
32km
Confirmed: M1.92 oklahoma
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
245km
Confirmed: M2.07 wasatch
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
236km
Confirmed: M2.15 cascadia
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
275km
Confirmed: M2.99 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
35km
Confirmed: M1.19 oklahoma
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
386km
Confirmed: M2.32 wasatch
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
257km
Confirmed: M2.16 cascadia
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
204km
Confirmed: M2.95 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
32km
Confirmed: M1.38 oklahoma
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
490km
Confirmed: M3.15 wasatch
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
115km
Confirmed: M2.21 cascadia
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
269km
Confirmed: M2.59 ucerf3
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
112km
Confirmed: M1.68 oklahoma
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
399km
Confirmed: M2.64 wasatch
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
387km
Confirmed: M2.69 cascadia
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
264km
Confirmed: M3.14 ucerf3
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
157km
Confirmed: M1.3 oklahoma
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
471km
Confirmed: M2.17 wasatch
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
387km
Confirmed: M2.38 cascadia
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
182km
Confirmed: M2.91 ucerf3
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
159km
Confirmed: M1.44 oklahoma
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
244km
Confirmed: M2.07 wasatch
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
483km
Confirmed: M2.18 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-04
new_madrid
68% risk
0h lead
13km
Confirmed: M1.15 new_madrid
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
275km
Confirmed: M2.99 ucerf3
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
oklahoma
66% risk
0h lead
145km
Confirmed: M2.23 oklahoma
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
wasatch
66% risk
0h lead
471km
Confirmed: M2.52 wasatch
Earthquake
F
2026-03-04
cascadia
66% risk
0h lead
388km
Confirmed: M2.12 cascadia
Earthquake
D
2026-03-04
ucerf3
66% risk
0h lead
204km
Confirmed: M2.95 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-03
cascadia
58% risk
0h lead
11km
Confirmed: M2.46 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-03
new_madrid
39% risk
0h lead
3km
Confirmed: M1.51 new_madrid
Earthquake
D
2026-03-03
ucerf3
59% risk
0h lead
269km
Confirmed: M2.59 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-03
oklahoma
52% risk
0h lead
32km
Confirmed: M2.54 oklahoma
Earthquake
D
2026-03-03
wasatch
52% risk
0h lead
244km
Confirmed: M3.96 wasatch
Earthquake
F
2026-03-03
cascadia
54% risk
0h lead
388km
Confirmed: M3.25 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-03
new_madrid
53% risk
0h lead
24km
Confirmed: M1.34 new_madrid
Earthquake
D
2026-03-03
ucerf3
54% risk
0h lead
264km
Confirmed: M3.14 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-03
oklahoma
52% risk
0h lead
32km
Confirmed: M2.54 oklahoma
Earthquake
D
2026-03-03
cascadia
54% risk
0h lead
236km
Confirmed: M2.15 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-03
new_madrid
53% risk
0h lead
42km
Confirmed: M1.29 new_madrid
Earthquake
D
2026-03-03
ucerf3
54% risk
0h lead
182km
Confirmed: M2.91 ucerf3
Earthquake
C
2026-03-03
oklahoma
52% risk
21h lead
146km
Confirmed: M2.49 oklahoma
Earthquake
B
2026-03-03
wasatch
52% risk
152h lead
244km
Confirmed: M3.96 wasatch
Earthquake
A
2026-03-03
cascadia
54% risk
130h lead
11km
Confirmed: M2.46 cascadia
Earthquake
C
2026-03-03
new_madrid
53% risk
0h lead
30km
Confirmed: M2.37 new_madrid
Earthquake
A
2026-03-03
ucerf3
54% risk
166h lead
182km
Confirmed: M2.91 ucerf3
Historical Backtest Results
Models backtested against 21 days of historical USGS data.
| Region | TP | FP | FN | Precision | Recall | F1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oklahoma | 2 | 26 | 0 | 7.1% | 100.0% | 13.3% |
| samoa | 1 | 3 | 0 | 25.0% | 100.0% | 40.0% |
| ucerf3 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 23.5% | 100.0% | 38.1% |
| cascadia | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3.6% | 100.0% | 6.9% |
| wasatch | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3.6% | 100.0% | 6.9% |
| new_madrid | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| central_utah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| hurricane_fault | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| alaska | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Verification Methodology
Every prediction is SHA-256 hashed at creation time and added to a tamper-proof hash chain. When a real-world event occurs (confirmed by USGS, NOAA, EMSC, NASA FIRMS, or NWS), the system automatically matches it against pre-existing predictions within 300km and 7 days.
Grading: A (80+ pts) to F (<20 pts) based on distance accuracy (0-50 pts) + prediction lead time (0-50 pts). Grade A requires <50km distance accuracy AND 72+ hours of advance warning.