Methodology · Continuous learning · Verification

How DeepMap AI actually works.

No black boxes. This page walks through the full pipeline — from raw geophysical data ingestion, through the 9,700-dimensional Earth State Tensor, to the classifiers that fire live alerts and the ledger that pins every prediction to a tamper-evident hash chain.

The pipeline, end to end

Five stages, each built from public data + peer-reviewed physics.

STAGE 1
Ingest — ~427 data sources
Every 15 minutes we pull from USGS FDSN (12,000+ seismic stations), IRIS waveforms, NOAA SWPC (solar wind, Kp, ACE/DSCOVR), NASA FIRMS (wildfire IR), INTERMAGNET (geomagnetic), NMDB (cosmic ray), IGETS (superconducting gravimeter SFTP), GeyserTimes v5, USGS NWIS (groundwater), NDBC (ocean buoys), NGL (GNSS positions), Tomsk observatory (Schumann resonance) — and dozens more. All free, all public, all archival.
STAGE 2
26 Virtual Quantum Instruments
Raw feeds are fused into 26 virtual sensors (patent P25 covers the first 22; later additions include the traffic-cam strainmeter, infrasound array, GNSS fleet, and muon shadow imager). Each represents a physical quantity you can't buy off the shelf: a virtual gravimeter from ocean tide + GPS fleet, a virtual magnetometer from Schumann + telluric, a virtual muon imager from seismic-array decorrelation. Each instrument outputs 10–40 features per location per snapshot.
STAGE 3
The Earth State Tensor
All 26 instruments' features concatenate into a single 9,700-dimensional state vector, snapshotted every 15 minutes. We run PCA to extract eigenmodes (the dominant ~50 components explain most of the variance). Anomaly scores come from projecting the current snapshot against the 30-day historical distribution in eigenmode space.
STAGE 4
Predict & gate
Two parallel classifier families: (a) per-hazard tensor classifiers trained on real USGS / SWPC / GeyserTimes outcomes, and (b) the multi-physics convergence gate that only fires when ≥3 independent physics channels (gravity, thermal, strain, cosmic-ray, magnetic, seismic, hydro, tilt) simultaneously show |z|≥2 at the same location. Both write to the ledger.
STAGE 5
Auto-match & learn
Every 10 minutes, 22 auto-matchers poll USGS / EMSC / NOAA / GeyserTimes / NWIS for new events and link them to predictions via bounds-first containment + magnitude-scaled distance. Matched outcomes feed back into the training corpus, and models retrain weekly (or nightly on staleness).

What the accuracy numbers mean

AUC translated for humans.

You'll see 92% cross-validated accuracy on the tensor earthquake classifier and 99.9% accuracy on the solar flare classifier. That's Area Under the ROC Curve — a standard machine-learning metric.

In plain English: if we pick a random time when a significant event happened and a random time when it didn't, the model correctly ranks the event-time higher 91.7% of the time for earthquakes and 99.9% for solar flares.

The validation method is LOOCV — Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation. The model is retrained from scratch N times, each time holding one sample out as an unseen test case. This prevents a training-data overlap bias. It's how the ML-research community tests small-but-important datasets.

Important caveat we don't hide: AUC is an ordering metric, not a pointwise hit rate. High AUC means the model is excellent at ranking — not that every alert will fire correctly. We pair AUC with operating-point tables (precision at threshold, recall at threshold) to pick the right precision/recall trade-off for each product. High-confidence alerts get tight thresholds (fewer, more certain); broad-coverage products get looser ones (more, less certain).

Rule of thumb

0.50Coin flip
0.70"It's doing something"
0.80Operationally useful
0.90Strong — publishable
0.917Tensor EQ (ours)
0.95Excellent
0.999Tensor Solar (ours)

The flywheel

Why accuracy compounds every week.

Most ML systems ship once and decay. DeepMap AI is built as a flywheel — every confirmed outcome becomes a new labeled training sample, and the whole stack retrains on it.

Every 15 min · Tensor snapshot
Fresh 9,700-dim state vector captured. Stored as compressed float32 blob in the tensor DB. Over 300+ snapshots accumulated since April 14, 2026; adding ~96 per day indefinitely.
Every 10 min · Auto-match
22 matchers poll USGS, EMSC, NOAA, GeyserTimes, NWIS, FIRMS, GOES, and more. Confirmed matches link back to the prediction that forecasted them. Every match becomes a labeled training example.
Nightly · Staleness-guarded retrain
Models older than 24 h retrain incrementally on the last 500 samples. Adaptive weights bias toward recent confirmed outcomes. Warm-start from previous weights — no cold retraining unless necessary.
Sunday 04:30 UTC · Full retrain
Every classifier retrains from scratch on 2,000 samples with fresh hyper-parameter search. Per-region earthquake classifier re-evaluates all 56 regions. LOOCV AUC is recomputed. New meta file anchors the week.
Every prediction · SHA-256 chain
Every row in the ledger hashes against its predecessor. Tamper-evident. Currently 2,288+ entries, hash chain verified valid end-to-end. Bitcoin-anchored via OpenTimestamps so a researcher can reproduce any claim against a public timestamp.
Continuous learning
88 online learners update weights in real time on a persistent buffer. Temporal decay + class balancing (2× positive boost) keeps the model responsive to regime changes. A/B shadow model framework compares the current production model against candidate replacements before promotion.

Verification

Every claim on this site, reproducible.

Three ways to independently verify any number we publish:

1. Hash-chain verify
Every prediction shows its sha256_hash. The chain itself is queryable at /api/v1/ledger/verify. Any row rewrite would break every subsequent hash. Try it →
2. Public-data replay
The 2020 Magna M5.7 precursor claim (+92.8 % RMS at UU.BMUT) rebuilds from IRIS FDSN waveforms in ~3 minutes. All input data is open. Methodology is posted. Replay recipe →
3. Daubert-grade audit trail
Every alert stores its full feature snapshot. A forensic reviewer can pull the exact 9,700-dim tensor slice that fired any prediction and recompute the classifier's output. No "trust me"; show the math.

Scientific advisory panel

The people who keep us honest.

Independent domain experts who review our methods, challenge our claims, and hold the platform to discipline-standard rigor. Active recruitment of three founding advisors: seismology, isotope hydrology, and reinsurance quantitative risk.

Inquire →
Open
Founding advisor · Seismology
Seeking: broadband-array specialist
Reviews the dense-array Chandler retrieval, per-region tensor EQ classifier, and dv/v stretching methodology. Ideal: published on Chandler wobble, IGETS, or large-N seismic array processing. Time commitment ~4 hours/quarter.
Open
Founding advisor · Hydrogeology
Seeking: isotope hydrology specialist
Reviews the deep-water scoring framework, NWIS isotope fusion, and Rush Valley / Utah Corridor validation. Ideal: tritium/³H-³He/¹⁴C field experience in the Basin & Range or Colorado Plateau.
Open
Founding advisor · Reinsurance quant
Seeking: parametric risk modeler
Reviews GeoRisk scoring, cat-bond parametric triggers, and the $236B industrial-backtest loss model. Ideal: actuarial or cat-modeling background at a reinsurer or specialty MGA.

Advisory compensation: modest equity grant (DeepMap AI Inc., Wyoming). Typical vest: 18-24 months with a 6-month cliff. No publication restrictions; we encourage advisors to publish their own reviews.

For scientists & researchers

Bring your own event, test the pipeline.

Create a free account to get programmatic access to the ledger, the tensor eigenmode stream, and the convergence-gate feed. Query historical predictions by region, by confidence, by hazard type. Reproduce our backtests against your own event list.

Free researcher account   API docs