{"locked":[{"data_source":"data/prediction_ledger.db,common/magnitude_utils.py","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["expected_mag_min","REGION_FLOORS={iceland:2.5","azores:2.5","newberry:2.5","ukraine:2.5}"],"git_commit_at_registration":"3285f15dcbbf70849990986aec6770ef2b289859","hypothesis_id":"20260504_lowering_expected_mag_min_to_2_5_5039cbab","locked_at":"2026-05-04T20:05:22Z","locked_file_sha256":"696823c64ad6d98ac6c68d811d1db90fda5aae21dcf310f8943cbaf0c60cf73b","notes":"INTERVENTION hypothesis. Diagnosis 2026-05-04: 4 regions (iceland/azores/newberry/ukraine) have 0% hit rate over 30d on n=23 predictions across all models. All 4 are low-magnitude zones (volcanic-rift or stable-interior) where typical events are M2-4; our default expected_mag_min derived from risk_level is 3.0-4.5. Many real M2.5-3.5 events go uncredited because they fall below the prediction floor and get tagged magnitude_shortfall. Intervention: add REGION_FLOORS dict to common/magnitude_utils.py mapping these 4 regions to 2.5, applied in compose_expected_range as min(bucket_mn, region_floor). Forward test: re-evaluate on 2026-08-04 by querying predictions in these regions filed after 2026-05-04 deployment, target >=30% hit rate AND global EQ hit rate within +-2pp of pre-intervention 54.3%. If both: confirming. If hit rate climbs but global degrades by >2pp: partial-confirming (regional gain at unacceptable cost). If regional hit rate stays <30%: disconfirming (the magnitude floor is not the binding constraint).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-04T20:02:15Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"before_after_30d_window_per_region","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"regional_hit_rate_lift","value":0.3},"title":"Lowering expected_mag_min to 2.5 for iceland/azores/newberry/ukraine raises hit rate in those 4 regions from 0% to >30% over 90d without degrading global rate","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-04"},{"data_source":"data/retro_cache/iris_mustang.db","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["microseism_secondary_band_3s"],"git_commit_at_registration":"d16b85a03ec88f79033f669e7c0228dc12ad3dec","hypothesis_id":"20260504_microseism_universal_precursor_c_99f4c2c7","locked_at":"2026-05-04T19:36:20Z","locked_file_sha256":"9283187e030940a076c96e14e368915b907b7660203372b16742e630d8a43782","notes":"FORWARD replication of Phase 5 (Apr 25 2026; +19.12sigma post-control on N=7,120 M>=5.5 EQs). This entry pre-registers the hypothesis that the same effect will persist on EVENTS THAT OCCUR BETWEEN 2026-05-04 AND 2026-11-04, evaluated against the live microseism feed. Result will be recorded after Nov 4 2026 using events that did not exist at lock time. This is a literature-replication forward test, not a self-disconfirmation candidate.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":5.0,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-04T19:35:17Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"stacked_epoch_z","n_permutations":10000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"z_score","value":5.0},"title":"Microseism universal precursor continues to fire at z>=5 for M5+ EQ at -10h, May-Nov 2026","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-11-04"},{"data_source":"data/prediction_ledger.db (prediction_features table)","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["predicted_magnitude","predicted_magnitude_high90","region_ceiling_M","magnitude_min"],"git_commit_at_registration":"db7fb91420b171a6a884bc0d97ffe8da1f8ea20e","hypothesis_id":"20260504_predicted_magnitude_has_negative_247ccebf","locked_at":"2026-05-04T19:50:40Z","locked_file_sha256":"b300164c4e2a7e06c266212a4b619f702e148c773376ec10288efbd7ab7ccc0f","notes":"Reverse-causal scan on 2026-05-04 (N=1002 resolved EQ preds) returned predicted_magnitude L1 coef of -1.45, predicted_magnitude_high90 coef of -1.43, with positive coefs on region_ceiling_M (+2.60) and magnitude_min (+1.49). Pattern: predictions claiming larger quakes match LESS often, predictions hugging the magnitude floor match MORE. This is a CALIBRATION finding -- the magnitude predictor is over-claiming on high-magnitude events. Hypothesis: same negative coef on predicted_magnitude (<-0.5) will reproduce when we retrain the reverse-causal classifier on data restricted to 2026-05-05 through 2026-08-04. If confirmed: justifies retraining the magnitude predictor with calibration loss + held-out validation. If disconfirmed: 2026-05-04 finding was a fluke of the snapshot.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-04T19:50:13Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"l1_logistic_on_metadata_features","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"predicted_magnitude_l1_coefficient","value":-0.5},"title":"Predicted magnitude has negative L1 coefficient against match outcome on EQ predictions over next 90d (replicates 2026-05-04 reverse-causal finding)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-04"},{"data_source":"data/private/replenishable_atlas/box_elder_with_qfaults_v1.csv","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["fault_loaded_subscore","depth_sweet_spot_score","closed_loop_fault_drilling_score","target_depth_m","hot_spring_on_fault"],"git_commit_at_registration":"4752e6d47d843bf6f78031d7149a75dad95a92a8","hypothesis_id":"20260506_fault_loaded_depth_sweet_spot_sc_1be4724e","locked_at":"2026-05-06T18:09:44Z","locked_file_sha256":"da59f7485628b060c1b090fc16b1e22c3220077f1608bf62b68b1c965060a052","notes":"FORWARD test of the 5-axis screening refinement (4 added: fault-loaded subscore from USGS Qfaults proximity + Holocene slip + hot-spring-on-fault binary; 5 added: depth sweet-spot 500-1500m). Pass criterion: at Phase 4 single-well validation completion (5 wells, one per top-5 ranked Box Elder zone), the top-3 zones by combined_new_score (Promontory Pt north, Hansel Valley, Howell Valley step-over) achieve >=60 pct 4-of-4 pass rate (drawdown <=10pct, recovery >=90pct in 72h, surrounding-well drawdown <0.5ft, tritium <0.5 TU). Bottom-2 zones (Brigham City + East Cache Crystal Hot Springs) provide discriminating-power confirmation. Null baseline: random ranking expects 60pct pass rate uniformly. Forward window: 6-24 months from Phase 4 drilling start (anticipated 2026 Q4 to 2027 Q3). Withdraw rule: if Phase 4 doesn't drill 4+ wells by 2027-12-31, declare underpowered. Notes: Operationalizes the engineering criterion 'fault-loaded with sustained pressure-driven flow at sweet-spot drilling depth (shallow enough to be cheap, deep enough not to interrupt regional hydrology)' raised in 2026-05-06 client conversation. Adds 4th + 5th screening axes on top of v3 atlas 3-axis methodology (tidal compliance + Vp/Vs + gravity). IP-relevant: candidate continuation-in-part on P069 multi-stage extraction; 5-axis screening combined with multi-stage cascade is novel.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":17520.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-06T18:09:37Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"phase4_pass_rate","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"pass_rate","value":0.6},"title":"Fault-loaded + depth sweet-spot screening (5-axis) predicts Phase 4 sustained-flow pass rate at Box Elder pilot","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-12-31"},{"data_source":"Utah DOGM WIS API + cross_physics.og_convergence_monitor","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["ogc_composite_score"],"git_commit_at_registration":"e182c4a2d0e4b9476bfeedd18746df4af9db0c8a","hypothesis_id":"20260511_non_dry_historical_sevier_desert_865aa86c","locked_at":"2026-05-11T02:30:33Z","locked_file_sha256":"d0131f86634ec20a014d2a712c3426d153a231661ed1c84cd04ee4591e11f7a0","notes":"Predictive Geology Phase 3 of 3 (companion to papers/predictive_geology_validation_design.md §4 H3 -- directional check). PRE-REGISTRATION REQUIRED before any DOGM ingest. Among the ~3000 historical Sevier Desert / Pavant / Black Rock / Beaver County wells, those classified OIL or GAS by DOGM (non-dry; expected count ~20-50) have higher OGC composite_score than dry wells at p<0.05 (Mann-Whitney). This is a SMALL-N DIRECTIONAL check, not a primary hypothesis -- with non-dry sample size likely 20-50, statistical power is limited. Reports effect-size estimate + CI regardless of p-value. Failure interpretation: small N means absence of significant difference may reflect insufficient power rather than null effect. Re-eval target: 2026-08-31.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"oil_gas_well_production_class"},"registered_at":"2026-05-11T02:30:24Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"mann_whitney_u_test_dry_vs_nondry","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"rank_biserial_correlation_dry_lt_nondry","value":0.3},"title":"Non-dry historical Sevier Desert wells have higher OGC composite_score than dry wells (Predictive Geology H3 directional)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-31"},{"data_source":"Utah DOGM WIS API + cross_physics.og_convergence_monitor","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["ogc_composite_score","ogc_score_structural_trap","ogc_nearest_fault_km"],"git_commit_at_registration":"e182c4a2d0e4b9476bfeedd18746df4af9db0c8a","hypothesis_id":"20260511_ogc_top_decile_cells_in_sevier_d_4eb375da","locked_at":"2026-05-11T02:30:32Z","locked_file_sha256":"f5396c7a6f6ace902d90df0d0ce8c1ced4083356d88a6067394567b8a0595809","notes":"Predictive Geology Phase 1 of 3 (companion to papers/predictive_geology_validation_design.md §4 H1). PRE-REGISTRATION REQUIRED before any DOGM ingest. Conditional on a Sevier Desert / Pavant / Black Rock / Beaver County cell containing >=1 historical dry wildcat (PA disposition, TD > 1500 m), the cell's OGC composite_score has median <= 25 (DRY class). Random baseline for these basins is median ~40-45. Predicting Mann-Whitney U test p<0.001 between wells-present and wells-absent cells. N >= 500 wells-present cells expected. Power >0.95 at effect size 0.3 sigma. Failure interpretation: OGC scoring uniformly across drilled and undrilled cells means model has no spatial discrimination. Re-eval target: 2026-08-31 after DOGM ingest + OGC computation complete.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"oil_gas_well_disposition"},"registered_at":"2026-05-11T02:29:47Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"mann_whitney_u_test_on_dry_vs_random_cells","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"median_ogc_composite_for_dry_wildcat_cells","value":25.0},"title":"OGC top-decile cells in Sevier Desert cluster on basin-margin trap fairway, NOT in basin interior (Predictive Geology H1)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-31"},{"data_source":"cross_physics.og_convergence_monitor + USGS/UGS petroleum geology maps","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["ogc_composite_score","ogc_nearest_fault_km"],"git_commit_at_registration":"e182c4a2d0e4b9476bfeedd18746df4af9db0c8a","hypothesis_id":"20260511_top_decile_ogc_cells_in_sevier_d_9c8de680","locked_at":"2026-05-11T02:30:33Z","locked_file_sha256":"8837ca2394016a3c0fe09381632501625f85c29438df96448a62b5ddfb74dac5","notes":"Predictive Geology Phase 2 of 3 (companion to papers/predictive_geology_validation_design.md §4 H2). PRE-REGISTRATION REQUIRED before any USGS trap-map digitization. Top 10% of cells by OGC composite_score across Sevier Desert basin (cells inside bbox 38.0-40.0 N, -113.0 to -111.5 W) cluster within 10 km of mapped basin-margin frontal-fault structures (Pavant frontal, House Range frontal, Mineral Mountains frontal). Random baseline expects ~25% of cells within 10 km of any frontal fault; top-decile expectation is >=60%. One-sided binomial test, p<0.001 pre-specified. 10% of ~10000 corridor cells = ~1000 top-decile cells. Effect size 60% vs 25% baseline trivially exceeds power at p<0.001. Failure interpretation: OGC top scores spread uniformly across basin = no fairway discrimination. Re-eval target: 2026-08-31.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"oil_gas_structural_trap"},"registered_at":"2026-05-11T02:30:13Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"binomial_test_proportion_within_10km_of_frontal_fault","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"fraction_of_top_decile_cells_within_10km_of_frontal_fault","value":0.6},"title":"Top-decile OGC cells in Sevier Desert corridor cluster within 10 km of mapped basin-margin frontal-fault structures (Predictive Geology H2)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-31"},{"data_source":"dense-array Millard sensor master + DeepMap satellite_hyperspectral + USGS QFaults + DOGM wells","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["iocg_axis1_pyrite_gold","iocg_axis2_heavy_density","iocg_axis3_iron_oxide","iocg_axis4_basement_prox","iocg_axis5_qfault_feeder","iocg_composite_score"],"git_commit_at_registration":"2184dfaabb13d47f66cf79b9f8bc895faac1f7fd","hypothesis_id":"20260512_iocg_scout_classifier_elite_stro_d3a5b682","locked_at":"2026-05-12T00:21:45Z","locked_file_sha256":"74d15947cc2cbfc8309df3d6b7dc0fcf6d7b1529de6277aada32a90eea77883a","notes":"IOCG classifier shipped 2026-05-12 with dense-array-calibrated weights against 8 dense-array IOCG-positive sensors (Antelope Field 0073 conf=0.623, Black Rock 0053 conf=0.848, Millard County 0046 conf=0.712, Millard County 0044 conf=0.464, Black Rock 0094 conf=0.505, Black Rock 0058 conf=0.431, Baker Hot Springs 0003 conf=0.477). FORWARD CLAIM: at any new commercial dense-array deployment or drilled hole within Western US Cordilleran/Basin-and-Range provinces, of the locations where DeepMap IOCG composite_score >= 50 (STRONG/ELITE), >=50pct will have dense-array mineral fingerprint Pyrite + Chalcopyrite + Native Gold all >5/10 OR drilling will confirm Cu/Au mineralization within 365 days of public claim. Forward window: 2026-05-12 to 2027-05-12. Null baseline: untargeted Western US drilling has ~5pct IOCG-positive rate per USGS Mineral Resources data. Withdraw rule: if fewer than 4 candidate sites are surveyed/drilled by 2027-05-12 the test is underpowered and the hypothesis is withdrawn rather than failed.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"drill_confirm"},"registered_at":"2026-05-12T00:21:36Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"binomial_2sided","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"true_positive_rate","value":0.5},"title":"IOCG Scout classifier ELITE/STRONG sites confirm via dense-array/drill within 365 days","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-05-12"},{"data_source":"dense-array Schumann step2 z-scores (Delta-OC array baseline 2024-06-20 z_mode1=5.04 z_mode3=4.32) + DeepMap eigenmode_schumann_coupling tensor","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["laic_mode1_z","laic_mode3_z","laic_combined_z","laic_anomaly_class","laic_eq_precursor_prob"],"git_commit_at_registration":"2184dfaabb13d47f66cf79b9f8bc895faac1f7fd","hypothesis_id":"20260512_schumann_laic_eq_precursor_class_87404330","locked_at":"2026-05-12T00:46:10Z","locked_file_sha256":"5f0e5a5c5c9129c0d94b6d748999d9d5b6ffbee1ed61f54a6db3c7fe75b73889","notes":"Forward claim: across the 5 dense-array Schumann-capable arrays in Millard County (Delta-Oak City, Black Rock, Antelope Field, Millard County, Baker Hot Springs), sites with combined_z >= 4.0 (ALERT or CRITICAL class) will have an M3+ EQ within 30 days at least 30pct of the time over the 12-month forward window 2026-05-12 to 2027-05-12. Null baseline: regional M3+ rate is ~5pct per 30d in Millard County per USGS catalog. WITHDRAW RULE: if fewer than 20 ALERT/CRITICAL classifications are issued over the year, the test is underpowered and the hypothesis withdraws. Methodology refs: Sentman 1989, Pulinets-Boyarchuk 2004, Ouzounov 2018 LAIC chain.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake_within_30d_M3plus"},"registered_at":"2026-05-12T00:45:59Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"binomial_2sided","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"true_positive_rate","value":0.3},"title":"Schumann LAIC EQ-precursor classifier ALERT/CRITICAL sites have elevated M3+ EQ rate within 365 days","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-05-12"},{"data_source":"data/retro_cache/iris_mustang.db + data/retro_tensor.db","expected_direction":"two_sided","feature_set":["microseism_primary_band_6s","microseism_secondary_band_3s"],"git_commit_at_registration":"67881aee2e934e69d2254e5921f9abffadbdb53b","hypothesis_id":"20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_41a196bf","locked_at":"2026-05-14T03:45:06Z","locked_file_sha256":"3e5b1b45e6afec36a6798a8d963b33091ca8c9d5f56508bc070c9bb35fa5a571","notes":"ADDENDUM to parent hypothesis 20260504_microseism_universal_precursor_c_99f4c2c7 (Bitcoin-anchored 2026-05-04). The Time-A v3 time-reversed stacking experiment (2026-05-13, N=7,120 M5.5+ events from retro tensor 2005-2018) reproduces the Phase 5 +19sigma at lag -10h finding (recast as z=-8.07 in window-relative normalization) but ALSO reveals that the strongest microseism deviation is at lag +134h post-event (z=-34.5), and the signal persists across the full pre/post 168h window. Independent confirmation via Time-D entropy classifier (2026-05-14): microseism_primary_band_6s is the SINGLE MOST-IRREVERSIBLE FEATURE in the entire 112-feature retro tensor (R^2 = -0.216), and microseism_secondary_band_3s is the strongest non-solar irreversible feature. These two independent methods support a revised Phase 5 narrative: not a discrete 10-hour precursor, but the LEADING EDGE of a multi-day stress-state cycle that straddles rupture and extends through ~+134h (5.6 days) post-event. PASS CRITERION (1) M5.5+ events 2026-05-13 to 2026-11-13 show median z >= 5 at lag +120h post-event; (2) post-event integrated z over [+1h, +168h] >= 2x pre-event integrated z over [-168h, -1h] across N >= 50 events. Methodology files: scripts/eq_precursor_stacked_epoch_time_reversed.py, scripts/time_reversed_entropy_classifier.py. Tonight's result JSONs: reports/science/eq_precursor_epoch_time_reversed_20260514T033322Z.json, reports/science/time_reversed_entropy_20260514T033934Z.json.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":5.5,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-14T03:45:00Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"asymmetry_test":"post_minus_pre_integrated_z","key_lags_h":[-134,-10,0,10,134],"min_asymmetry_ratio":2.0,"min_post_peak_z":5.0,"window_h":[-168,168]},"method":"stacked_epoch_z_extended_window","n_permutations":10000},"threshold":{"direction":"two_sided","metric":"post_event_peak_z","value":5.0},"title":"Phase 5 microseism universal precursor is the leading edge of a 5-day stress-state cycle straddling rupture, with peak signal at +134h post-event NOT lag -10h","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-11-13"},{"data_source":"data/retro_tensor.db (2005-2018, N=122712 hourly snapshots) + data/pbh_known_events_cache.db (M5.5+ events, N=7120)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["microseism_primary_band_6s","microseism_secondary_band_3s"],"git_commit_at_registration":"67881aee2e934e69d2254e5921f9abffadbdb53b","hypothesis_id":"20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_dad7e9e7","locked_at":"2026-05-14T06:29:33Z","locked_file_sha256":"544ebcc1f96d5acc10216cf9c08de6d4d0ae65627969c7ae6b186cbfc8b353bf","notes":"CORRECTED ADDENDUM to parent hypothesis 20260504_microseism_universal_precursor_c_99f4c2c7. Supersedes withdrawn hypothesis 20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_41a196bf (which contained a coordinate-mapping error in interpretation -- see that withdrawal note for full disclosure). Two independent 2026-05-13/14 tests re-confirm the original Phase 5 narrative WITHOUT modification. (1) Forward-control stacked-epoch on retro tensor, N=7,120 M5.5+ events: peak z = +34.52 at lag -10h, z@+10h = +2.95 -> 11.7x pre-event asymmetry. Magnitude-stratified runs: M4.5+ N=102,632 peak z=+38.84 at lag -10h; M6.5+ N=690 peak z=+30.25 at lag -10h; M7.5+ N=82 peak z=+19.79 at lag -10h. Phase 5 finding is universal across all magnitude bands. (2) Time-D entropy classifier on same retro tensor: microseism_primary_band_6s is THE single most-irreversible feature in the entire 112-dim tensor (R^2 = -0.216 -- post-event tensor state predicts pre-event state WORSE than chance), and microseism_secondary_band_3s is the strongest non-solar irreversible feature. Two independent methodologies, same result: microseism is the dominant pre-rupture entropy-producing signal. PASS CRITERION: forward test on M5.5+ events 2026-05-14 to 2026-11-14 (6 months), median z at lag -10h >= 5 across N>=50 events AND directional asymmetry ratio z@-10h / z@+10h >= 3 across same N. Methodology files: scripts/eq_precursor_stacked_epoch_time_reversed.py (with --forward-control flag), scripts/time_reversed_entropy_classifier.py. Result JSONs: reports/science/eq_precursor_epoch_forward_control_20260514T035034Z.json, reports/science/eq_precursor_epoch_time_reversed_20260514T0611{59,300,309}Z.json (M4.5/M6.5/M7.5 strata), reports/science/time_reversed_entropy_20260514T033934Z.json.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":5.5,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-14T06:29:26Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"cross_validation":"time_d_entropy_R2_at_microseism_primary_band_6s_lt_zero","directional_asymmetry_test":"z_at_minus_10h_over_z_at_plus_10h","min_asymmetry_ratio":3.0,"min_peak_z_at_lag_minus_10h":5.0,"window_h":[-168,24]},"method":"stacked_epoch_z_forward_control","n_permutations":10000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"z_at_lag_minus_10h","value":5.0},"title":"Phase 5 microseism universal precursor reproduces at z=+34.52 at lag -10h with 11.7x pre>>post asymmetry; Time-D entropy classifier independently confirms microseism is most-irreversible feature in 112-dim retro tensor","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-11-14"},{"data_source":"cross_physics.eclipse_prediction_monitor.cross_correlate_eclipses_with_signal + ledger + iris_mustang.db + rs_etas_caldera_forecaster output","expected_direction":"null","feature_set":["epm_days_to_next_solar_eclipse","epm_eclipse_season_active","microseism_secondary_band_3s","cuf_combined_rate_per_day_7d","ledger_m5_event_rate_global"],"git_commit_at_drafting":"05a0929d6e2b4630d3c5614c055281da43906c76","hypothesis_id":"20260517_solar_eclipse_epochs_do_not_co_DRAFT","hypothesis_text":"Solar eclipse epochs (+/- 7 days, ~5400 historical events 2016-2026 from the eclipse_prediction_monitor backfill) do NOT show statistically significant elevated M5+ earthquake rate, microseism_secondary_band_3s amplitude, or RS+ETAS caldera unrest score (cuf_combined_rate_per_day_7d) compared to N=N_eclipses randomly-sampled control windows in the same time range. The null is rejected only if Welch's two-sample t-test returns p < 0.01 in ANY of the 3 signal channels. Pre-registration mirrors the Phase 5 microseism / Fischbach 1986 / Forbush triple-null methodology -- expected outcome is publishable null, validating that gravitational tidal forcing from eclipse-geometry alignments does not exceed ordinary syzygy stress modulation that is already captured by the lunar_tidal + syzygy_proximity channels.","locked_at":"2026-05-18T03:24:24Z","locked_file_sha256":"af5c5286cbeefd6e8d3451d8593add252dd598747370616927accbd7a1930a94","notes":"Antikythera ~150 BC predicted eclipses with 30 bronze gears via Saros + Inex cycles. DeepMap reproduces that math (cross_physics.eclipse_prediction_monitor) and adds the hypothesis test the Greeks could not run: does the orbital geometry that produces eclipses also correlate with terrestrial geophysical anomalies? Pre-registration prevents post-hoc tuning. Lock + Bitcoin-OTS anchor (4 calendars) BEFORE evaluating. Re-evaluation window: 2026-11-17 (6 months forward). To lock manually:\n  python scripts/hypothesis_registry.py lock 20260517_solar_eclipse_epochs_do_not_co_DRAFT --ots\nThen rerun cross_correlate_eclipses_with_signal at 2026-11-17 for each of the 3 signal channels and record_result.","outcome":{"expected_result":"null_supports_no_effect across all 3 signal channels","lookahead_hours":168.0,"type":"eclipse_cross_correlation"},"references":["Freeth et al. 2006, Nature 444:587 (Antikythera decoding)","Meeus 1998, Astronomical Algorithms 2nd ed. ch. 54 (Saros + Inex)","van den Bergh 1955, Periodicity and Variation of Solar Eclipses (Inex cycle)","Phase 5 microseism universal precursor pre-reg (20260504_microseism_universal_precursor_c_99f4c2c7)","Forbush triple-null methodology, memory/cosmic_ray_phase_findings_may02.md"],"registered_at":null,"registered_by":"claude (DRAFT for Mike to lock + Bitcoin-anchor)","status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"backfill_years":10,"n_null_samples":"equal_to_n_eclipses","n_permutations":0,"window_days":7.0},"method":"welch_t_test"},"threshold":{"direction":"below_to_reject_null","metric":"p_value","value":0.01},"title":"Solar eclipse epochs do NOT statistically modulate M5+ EQ rate, microseism amplitude, or caldera unrest score within +/- 7 days","withdrawal_rule":"If fewer than 30 eclipses fall within the backfill window after data cleaning, declare UNDERPOWERED and re-register with looser parameters (longer backfill or shorter window).","_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-11-17"},{"data_source":"data/private/inner_core/daily_rotation_rate_2009_2026.csv","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["icrd_inferred_inner_core_rotation_rate_deg_per_yr"],"git_commit_at_registration":"d2c1eddba4466382041676525045c64470e8679e","hypothesis_id":"20260518_inner_core_daily_rotation_h2_sub_0750045d","locked_at":"2026-05-18T17:08:53Z","locked_file_sha256":"c4875d0565f49fe8d8576819e825cf2492c204444fd37048a91dcfc3175ccf7b","notes":"FORWARD 36-month test (lock 2026-05-18, re-eval 2029-05-18). Hypothesis: after detrending the inner-core daily rotation rate timeseries (computed via 0S2 multiplet splitting on IGETS gravity, EOST-only deduped reader post commit dbd2ab73) with a 3rd-order polynomial removing decadal drift, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram of the residual will show at least one peak at period 0.5-3 yr with z >= 3.0 vs a 1000-permutation random-phase null. This is HYPOTHESIS-GENERATING -- never been definitively detected at this band; if real, would extend Yang & Song 2023 decadal-cadence rotation reversal claim to sub-decadal scale. Data source: cron-driven daily compute_0s2_splitting_for_window from Track C continuous run (PID 1952580 on AX41 + PID 897979 on AX42-U started 2026-05-18, fresh on EOST-only code).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":25920.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"intrinsic_oscillation"},"registered_at":"2026-05-18T17:04:48Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"detrend":"decadal_polynomial_order_3","period_band_yr":[0.5,3.0]},"method":"lomb_scargle_periodogram_vs_permutation_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"lomb_scargle_peak_z_score","value":3.0},"title":"Inner-core daily rotation H2: sub-decadal 0.5-3yr oscillation","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2029-05-18"},{"data_source":"data/private/inner_core/daily_rotation_rate_2009_2026.csv + USGS M7+ catalog","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["icrd_inferred_inner_core_rotation_rate_deg_per_yr","usgs_m7_plus_count"],"git_commit_at_registration":"d2c1eddba4466382041676525045c64470e8679e","hypothesis_id":"20260518_inner_core_daily_rotation_h3_ant_4b20eae9","locked_at":"2026-05-18T17:08:53Z","locked_file_sha256":"916315bf3416513634439de2c7501f9a08023004eb143c340ec2a01b643eeb93","notes":"FORWARD 36-month test (lock 2026-05-18, re-eval 2029-05-18). Bendick & Bilham 2017 GRL extension: 6-yr LOD oscillation correlates with global M7+ rate at r ~0.6. We test whether the inner-core differential rotation rate from 0S2 splitting (independent of LOD) shows the SAME anti-correlation at finer (30-180d) lag. Hypothesis: Pearson r between detrended rotation residual + USGS M7+ count, scanned over lag 30-180d, peaks at r <= -0.20 with permutation p < 0.01. Data: Track C continuous-cron output + USGS catalog (curated daily). Withdraw rule: if fewer than 50 lag samples accumulate, declare underpowered + register a longer-window variant. EOST-only deduped reader (commit dbd2ab73) is the lock-time data path.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":25920.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"rotation_eq_coupling"},"registered_at":"2026-05-18T17:05:10Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"detrend":"decadal_polynomial_order_3","lag_band_days":[30,180],"min_magnitude":7.0},"method":"lagged_pearson_correlation_vs_permutation_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"pearson_r","value":-0.2},"title":"Inner-core daily rotation H3: anti-correlates with M7+ EQ rate at lag 30-180d","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2029-05-18"},{"data_source":"cross_physics.lithium_brine_classifier_monitor,connectors/lithium_brine_classifier.yaml","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["lbc_composite_score","lbc_class_id","lbc_nearest_known_km"],"git_commit_at_registration":"dc8803af8935a729ddf8d0eeb0bdb7009dca6c69","hypothesis_id":"20260519_deepmap_a_4_lithium_brine_classi_c64bd066","locked_at":"2026-05-19T17:58:36Z","locked_file_sha256":"5587b936412932a4c5bcc00cb2d3254f8c822629d5373f082e87a6b40960cb45","notes":"Forward test of the A.4 5-axis lithium brine classifier (commit c11600c2, 12 features prefix lbc_).  Validation cohort at registration: 5 producers ELITE (Atacama 82.0 / Salton Sea 79.2 / Clayton Valley 78.0 / Great Salt Lake 78.0 / Smackover 70.2) vs 3 controls (Yellowstone 20.0 / Atlantic abyssal 16.2 / Wasatch granite 42.5).  Producer-min vs control-max discrimination ratio 1.65x.  Pre-registered hypothesis: when applied to a random 200-site Western US continental scan, top-decile sites (composite >= 70) will contain a known producer or USGS MRDS Li/B/Cs/Rb pathfinder occurrence at >=60 percent rate.  Null baseline (random 5-axis weighted): expected ~30 percent by base rate.  2x lift = confirming.  Re-eval date 2027-05-19.  Lockfile hash committed pre-anchor; OTS Bitcoin anchor pending operator run on AX41 (deferred per local-ots-broken-on-py3.14 note in MEMORY.md).  Confirming result unlocks: (a) A.4 production cost-tier removal (drill_recommendation > 80), (b) publishable result in critical-minerals journal (J Geochem Explor or Econ Geol), (c) commercial CIP filing path Q3 2026 per YAML ip_status block.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"lithium_brine_resource"},"registered_at":"2026-05-19T17:58:25Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"top_decile_producer_density","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"top_decile_known_producer_or_pathfinder_recall","value":0.6},"title":"DeepMap A.4 lithium brine classifier top-decile (composite >= 70) producer-density precision >= 60 percent over 1-year forward window","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-19"},{"data_source":"IGETS 8-station network 2015-2025 + Phase D.0 expanded 25-station catalog","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["slichter_3.5h_period_snr","slichter_4.5h_period_snr","slichter_6.0h_period_snr","slichter_triplet_splitting_sigma","slichter_sigma_floor_microgal"],"git_commit_at_registration":"53769e0888c7951aae018f00336c1ae772e87d9f","hypothesis_id":"20260519_slichter_mode_v2_detection_or_pu_ee86f619","locked_at":"2026-05-19T18:51:25Z","locked_file_sha256":"66177049797fde965b7f4db7be73e82c00ec2ca1cd81a247714ecf164e0dc96b","notes":"D.1-SPRINT forward test of the Slichter inner-core translational triplet (3.5h / 4.5h / 6.0h periods).  Pre-registered prior to running v2 pipeline.  Tests Smylie 1992 disputed claim vs Rosat 2005 null.  v2 = v1 (today, NULL) plus 3 D.1-SPRINT calibration pieces: (1) Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading correction, (2) ICET-pre-corrected data + harmonic post-subtraction, (3) per-station FG5 calibration audit + uniform K-scale renormalization.  Data sufficiency: 8 IGETS stations x 13-25 years already EXCEEDS Rosat 2005's 7 x 12.  Pass criterion is ONE of: (a) DETECTION: SNR >= 5 at any of 3 canonical Slichter periods with triplet splitting consistent with Smylie 1992 framework (Nobel-tier finding); OR (b) PUBLISHABLE NULL: sigma floor constrained to <= 0.1 microGal at the 3 periods (5x tighter than Rosat 2005's 0.5 microGal floor; JGR / GJI / EPSL paper).  Underpowered = neither pass condition met.  Re-eval 2027-05-19 (12 months) -- allows full 3-week sprint engineering + 6-month additional IGETS data accumulation.  Anchor pending OTS Bitcoin proof on AX41.  Scoping doc at reports/d1_sprint_scoping_2026_05_19.md; engineering pieces 1 (Hinderer) + 3 (FG5) shipped this session at cross_physics/hinderer_atmospheric_loading_correction.py + cross_physics/fg5_calibration_registry.py.  Piece 2 (ICET) deferred to sprint week 2.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"free_oscillation_inner_core_translational_triplet"},"registered_at":"2026-05-19T18:51:13Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"multi_station_coherent_stack_with_d1_sprint_calibration_pieces","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"slichter_period_snr_or_sigma_floor","value":5.0},"title":"Slichter mode v2 detection-or-publishable-null after D.1-SPRINT calibration cleanup","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-19"},{"data_source":"IGETS SuperConducting Gravimeter Delta-g residuals via cross_physics/igets_sub_hz_transient_monitor.py + cross_physics/igets_secular_monitor.py; n>=8 stations spanning 2009-2026 (Strasbourg, Walferdange, Onsala, Sutherland, Schiltach, Larzac, Pecny, Conrad)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["per_station_igets_dg_residual_after_tide_removal","per_station_igets_dg_residual_after_atm_loading_removal"],"git_commit_at_registration":null,"hypothesis_id":"20260520_g3_dm_annual_modulation_per_station_igets_residual","locked_at":"2026-05-20T21:05:39Z","locked_file_sha256":"f9da0858486c313b8e778dfa046192bdb5a494c487d867a205fd6e0ec081c1a6","notes":"Pre-registered narrow-channel forward test of the G3 DM annual modulation moonshot. The G3 v1 SEED's tensor-L2 backtest produced a single-arm 3.1 sigma aggregate candidate (Lomb-Scargle p=0.001, peak period 440 d, phase offset +47.7 d from June 2) on retro_tensor 2005-2018 (122,712 hourly snaps, subsampled to 20,000). HOWEVER per-year stability check showed phase scatter across the full circle (DOY 43 to DOY 327) over 7 two-year sub-windows -- the aggregate signal is a coincidence of averaging over 14 years of phase-scattered annual cycles, NOT a coherent modulation. Linear detrending does NOT change p=0.001 because the L2 noise std (~3.9e+14) is dominated by tensor inventory drift during 2005-2018 (modules came online progressively). PER TASK INSTRUCTIONS the candidate-positive triggered this pre-registration; the forward test moves to the RIGHT observable: per-station IGETS Delta-g residuals after Earth-tide subtraction (Hartmann-Wenzel 1995) AND atmospheric loading subtraction (Boy & Hinderer 2006). DM annual modulation theory (Drukier-Freese-Spergel 1986; Lewin-Smith 1996) predicts coupling to baryonic targets at ~7%-level amplitude with phase peak near June 2 (DOY 152.5). Pass criterion: >=4 of 8 IGETS stations independently show p<0.05 LS power AT period 300-440 d AND phase within +/- 60 d of June 2 AND amplitude in [0.5%, 10%] window AND cross-station phase stddev <= 30 d. Withdraw rule: if fewer than 4 stations have >=3 years of cleaned data by 2027-05-20 the test is underpowered and re-registers with looser cross-station consistency. No claim if the per-station scan shows DOY-randomness like the L2 scan did. Re-evaluation: 2027-05-20 (12 months forward). Bitcoin OTS anchor pending user lock + manual ots stamp.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"dm_annual_modulation_per_station_consistent_phase_and_amplitude"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T22:35:00Z","registered_by":"claude@DeepMap","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"backtest_script":"scripts/backtest_g3_dm_annual_modulation.py","cross_station_phase_consistency_max_stddev_days":30,"dama_canonical_amplitude_percent_window":[0.5,10.0],"dama_canonical_peak_day_of_year":152.5,"ls_period_range_days":[300,440],"ls_phase_tolerance_days":60,"min_n_stations_required_for_pass":4,"n_bootstrap_permutations":1000,"per_station_pvalue_threshold":0.05,"tensor_l2_aggregate_result_disclaimer":"Aggregate L2-norm scan on retro_tensor (122k snaps 2005-2018) produced p=0.001 + phase offset +47.7d from DAMA's June 2; this CANDIDATE-POSITIVE COLLAPSED on per-year inspection (phase ranges DOY 43 to DOY 327 randomly across 2005-2007/2007-2009/.../2017-2019 sub-windows). The L2 norm is dominated by raw-units channels + tensor inventory drift, not by a coherent annual signal. This forward test moves to per-station IGETS residuals where DM coupling theory predicts a real signature."},"method":"per_station_lomb_scargle_dama_phase_check","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_stations_with_pvalue_below_0_05_AND_phase_within_60d_of_june_2_AND_amplitude_in_window","value":4.0},"title":"G3 v2 forward test: DM annual modulation in per-station IGETS Delta-g residuals (de-tided + de-atmosphered), NOT in tensor L2 norm","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-20"},{"data_source":"cross_physics/solar_gmode_discovery_monitor.py + data/igets_sg/gmode_band_residuals.db (populated by future scripts/refresh_solar_gmode_amplitudes.py, pending). v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g10_solar_gmode.py","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["sgmd_3hr_period_z","sgmd_6hr_period_z","sgmd_9hr_period_z","sgmd_12hr_period_z","sgmd_24hr_period_z","sgmd_n_modes_above_z3","sgmd_max_abs_z","sgmd_network_coherence"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7959ac04677f0b241ab0196814c30c0a24c29e89","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g10_solar_g_mode_disco_06a0397f","locked_at":"2026-05-20T04:07:50Z","locked_file_sha256":"e52c4e99a98d17b482f6e3610954e776e48f4582a32817634a05a5194eefca43","notes":"FORWARD test of the Phase D.5-G10 Solar G-Mode Discovery moonshot. G10 v1 SEED is cross_physics/solar_gmode_discovery_monitor.py monitoring 5 candidate g-mode periods (3, 6, 9, 12, 24 hr); the v2 backtest restricts to the 3 Garcia 2007 + Provost 2000 + Belkacem 2009 theoretical candidate frequencies in the 60-90 min period band (220, 240, 270 microHz) where g-mode lines are most strongly predicted. IGETS SG superconducting-gravimeter coherent-stack network of 7+ stations (Strasbourg, Wettzell, Canberra, Cantley, Concepcion, Sutherland, Mizusawa per Phase D.0 expansion) is queried at daily cadence across 23 years. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) period-folded coherent-stack peak amplitude exceeds 3x sliding off-band noise floor at >= 2 of 3 candidate frequencies AND >= 5 of 7 stations contribute coherently (per-station |coeff| >= 3x per-station off-band median), AND (b) <= 1 of 5 deliberately-chosen decoy frequencies (193, 208, 231, 256, 285 microHz) in the same band shows a spurious peak at the same detection threshold, AND (c) random off-band resampling bootstrap p-value <= 0.05 (N >= 1000 perms; each perm replaces each station's on-band coefficient with a random draw from that station's own off-band Goertzel coefficient pool, preserving per-station noise statistics while destroying any genuine cross-station g-mode coherence). The load-bearing scalar reported to record-result is the bootstrap p-value. Garcia 2007 GOLF/SoHO g-mode candidates remain disputed (Fossat 2017 detection claim refuted by Schunker 2018 + Appourchaux & Corbard 2019); G10 tests for INDEPENDENT confirmation OR disconfirmation via gravity instead of helioseismology Doppler velocity. Predicted signal strength is 10^-13 g_local per Provost 2000 + 1 AU gravitational coupling, right at the IGETS SG nanogal precision floor after sqrt(7) ~ 2.6x stacking boost. References: Garcia et al 2007 Science (GOLF g-mode candidates); Appourchaux et al 2010 Astron Astrophys Rev (helioseismology review); Fossat et al 2017 Astron Astrophys (disputed g-mode detection claim); Schunker et al 2018 Astron Astrophys (refutation reanalysis); Scherrer & Gough 2019 ApJ (further refutation); Provost 2000 (interior g-mode amplitude predictions); Belkacem et al 2009 Astron Astrophys (mode-amplitude theory); Crossley et al 1999 Phys Earth Planet Inter (IGETS SG noise floor characterization); Hinderer et al 2007 (superconducting gravimetry review). Companion to Phase D.5 G1 mass tomography, G2 DM compact transit, G3 DM annual modulation, G4 LOD anomaly, G5 inner-core wandering, G6 Earth mass redistribution, G7 pre-volcanic mass inflation, G8 pre-EQ free-oscillation excitation, G9 cosmic-ray terrestrial mass modulation. Re-eval 2027-05-21. CONDITIONAL on operational IGETS SG gmode-band residual cache (data/igets_sg/gmode_band_residuals.db with per-station daily standardized residual columns) and on the cache spanning >= 7 stations with >= 1500 daily samples each; until then the live backtest will return UNDERPOWERED. Synthetic smoke-test PASS verified 2026-05-19 with bootstrap p=0.000999 on 8395-day per-station history across 7 stations with deliberate coherent ~10^-13 g_local injections at the 3 candidate frequencies, 1000 off-band resampling permutations, all three arms PASS (candidate_hits=3 of 3, decoy_spurious=0 of 5). OTS Bitcoin anchor deferred to AX41 (Python 3.14 ots binary broken locally). WITHDRAW criterion: if at re-eval the live cache lacks per-station residual columns or fewer than 5 stations span >= 1500 daily samples, declare UNDERPOWERED rather than null and re-register with extended timeline.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"solar_gmode"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T04:07:39Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"candidate_freq_coherent_stack_with_decoy_window_budget_and_off_band_resampling_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"bootstrap_pvalue","value":0.05},"title":"Phase D.5-G10 Solar G-Mode Discovery v2 backtest","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"cross_physics/free_inner_core_wobble_discovery_monitor.py + data/iers_c04_eop.db (polar-motion residuals after Phase 65r v2 background subtraction: Chandler+annual+FCN+AAM+OAM+HAM). v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g11_free_inner_core_wobble.py","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["ficw_3day_period_z","ficw_5day_period_z","ficw_7day_period_z","ficw_9day_period_z","ficw_14day_period_z","ficw_n_modes_above_z3","ficw_max_abs_z","ficw_cross_instrument_coherence"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7959ac04677f0b241ab0196814c30c0a24c29e89","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g11_free_inner_core_wo_1c7c8b93","locked_at":"2026-05-20T04:05:33Z","locked_file_sha256":"da50102f02aebe56185684f2b158ed36cae8f78e6bf649754e1085e6ad07f16c","notes":"FORWARD test of the G11 Free Inner Core Wobble (FICW) discovery detector (Phase D.5 11th moonshot). G11 v1 SEED is cross_physics/free_inner_core_wobble_discovery_monitor.py monitoring five candidate FICW periods (3d/5d/7d/9d/14d); the backtest restricts to the three primary Mathews 1991 + Mathews 2002 inner-core periodicity predictions (3d/5d/7d). PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) period-folded peak amplitude divided by sliding noise floor is >= 3.0 (SNR >= 3x) in >= 1 of 3 candidate periods, AND (b) spurious-peak rate across 12 non-candidate band positions (2.0/2.5/3.5/4.0/4.5/5.5/6.0/6.5/7.5/8.0/9.0/10.0 d) at the >= 2x noise threshold is <= 0.20 of windows, AND (c) random-phase bootstrap p-value on the highest-SNR candidate period is <= 0.05 (N >= 1000 perms). The load-bearing scalar reported to record-result is the bootstrap p-value. Detection would be the FIRST direct observation of inner-core wobble; FICW remains UNCONFIRMED 35 years after theoretical prediction (Mathews 2002 J Geophys Res; Mathews and Guo 2005). Distinct from the outer-core Free Core Nutation operationalized in Phase 65r v2 (FCN period 380-450 d). References: Mathews et al 1991 GJI (FICW theoretical prediction); Chao 1989 GJI (alternative inner-core model with shorter period); Mathews 2002 J Geophys Res (Earth-rotation theory + FICW); Dehant and Mathews 2015 (Treatise on Geophysics 2nd ed vol 3 review); Krasna et al 2013 (FCN observability via IERS C04); Smylie 1992 GJI (disputed sub-seismic translational mode claim); Bos and Scherneck 2013 (mass-loading correction models). Companion to Phase D.5 G1 mass tomography, G2 DM compact transit, G3 DM annual modulation, G4 LOD anomaly, G5 inner-core wandering, G6 Earth mass redistribution, G7 pre-volcanic mass inflation, G8 pre-EQ free-oscillation excitation, G9 cosmic-ray terrestrial mass modulation. Re-eval 2027-05-21. CONDITIONAL on operational IERS C04 polar-motion-residual cache (data/iers_c04_eop.db with polar_motion_residuals table holding xp_residual_uas + yp_residual_uas columns post Phase 65r v2 background subtraction) and on the cache spanning at least 3 years for Nyquist stability at the 14-day end of the candidate band; until then the live backtest will return UNDERPOWERED. Synthetic smoke-test PASS verified 2026-05-19 with bootstrap p=0.000999 on 8540-day history with deliberate 7-day FICW injection at 10x noise, 1000 permutations, all three arms PASS (best SNR 558.6 at 7d, spurious rate 0.167, n_passing_snr=1). OTS Bitcoin anchor deferred to AX41 (Python 3.14 ots binary broken locally). WITHDRAW criterion: if at re-eval the live cache lacks the polar-motion residual table or spans fewer than 3 years, declare UNDERPOWERED rather than null and re-register with extended timeline.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T04:05:22Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"period_folded_snr_with_spurious_band_budget_and_random_phase_bootstrap_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"bootstrap_pvalue","value":0.05},"title":"Phase D.5-G11 Free Inner Core Wobble (FICW) v2 backtest","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"G1 v1 SEED upstream channel fusion (GRACE-FO Level 2 monthly + IGETS L2 SG residuals + Sentinel-1 InSAR SBAS + NGL daily IGS14 GNSS)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["mtm_inversion_confidence_0_1","mtm_mass_anomaly_top_5km_gt","mtm_mass_anomaly_5_30km_gt","mtm_grace_twsa_cm","mtm_igets_gravity_anomaly_ugal","mtm_insar_vertical_mm_yr","mtm_gnss_vertical_mm_yr","mtm_data_real"],"git_commit_at_registration":"ad0538a0bc749eb155622daa78fc13e291db2000","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g1_mass_tomography_cor_51cc427f","locked_at":"2026-05-20T02:46:41Z","locked_file_sha256":"c52a8389f063be769423848c1fabfa894c12472606e92168a65b74b5deae6f43","notes":"Phase D.5-G1 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = at least 7 of 10 documented mass-anomaly sites (California Central Valley + Indo-Gangetic Plain + Greenland + WAIS + Decatur CCS + Yellowstone + Long Valley + Amazon + Sumatra-Andaman + Lake Mead) classify ELITE or STRONG under the G1 inversion AND at most 1 of 5 control sites (South Pacific Gyre + Sahara + Canadian Shield + Atlantic mid-lat + Western Australia) classify STRONG or above. Backtest harness: scripts/backtest_g1_mass_tomography.py (synthetic smoke-test PASSED 8/10 + 0/5). Production runs require IGETS+GRACE+InSAR+GNSS caches populated on AX41+CPX41. Null baseline: random ELITE/STRONG assignment at 50% per-site would give 2-3 of 10 known hits + 2-3 of 5 control false positives; PASS requires the inversion to discriminate hot-spots from stable Earth at >>chance. Withdraw rule: if v1 SEED upstream channels return data_real=0 at >=8 of 10 known sites (i.e., upstream caches not populated on production AX41 by 2027-05-21), declare UNDERPOWERED and re-register with v2 Watkins mascon inversion.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"mass_anomaly_classifier"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T02:46:30Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"ground_truth_strong_or_elite_count_with_control_fpr","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_known_strong_or_elite","value":7.0},"title":"Phase D.5-G1 mass tomography correctly classifies 7-of-10 known mass-anomaly sites as ELITE/STRONG with at most 1-of-5 control false positives","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"scripts/backtest_g2_dm_compact_transit.py + cross_physics/dm_compact_transit_monitor.classify_candidate + data/dm_compact_transit_candidates.db when present","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["dct_max_5domain_coincidence_score","dct_inferred_transit_velocity_km_s","dct_inferred_charge_proxy","dct_atmospheric_entry_signature_0_1","dct_transit_candidate_count_24h"],"git_commit_at_registration":"ad778b03924f1593a05364a1707b7d78aea1cdf3","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g2_dm_compact_transit__23320a39","locked_at":"2026-05-20T02:58:32Z","locked_file_sha256":"ae823abdc5e908e4b34ba5396522033bc6d18d79d451975ed2f920dfd008dd20","notes":"FORWARD test of the Phase D.5-G2 v2 backtest harness (scripts/backtest_g2_dm_compact_transit.py).  G2 is the second of three Phase D.5 moonshots (companion to G1 Mass Tomography + G3 DM Annual Modulation).  Test: 50 simulated transit injections at coincidence_score >= 5.0 (18 PBH + 18 strangelet + 14 Q-ball/macroscopic), classified via cross_physics.dm_compact_transit_monitor.classify_candidate; 200 control epochs from mixture (65% sub-threshold noise, 25% bolide-like 15-45 km/s, 7% velocity-rejected >600 km/s, 3% accidentally-DM-like).  Bootstrap null FPR with N=2000 permutations.  PASS requires ALL THREE arms: (a) detection_count >= 40 (80% of 50), (b) FPR_count <= 10 (5% of 200), (c) observed FPR <= bootstrap p95.  Re-eval 2027-05-21 (12 months) on AX41 production with live candidate DB data instead of synthetic injections.  WITHDRAW criterion: if AX41 candidate DB still produces < 5 candidates after 9 months of accumulated tensor scanning, declare underpowered (live SG/IGETS noise floor was insufficient for SNR >= 5 candidate generation) and re-register with relaxed SNR floor 3.5.  Pass criterion documented as: PASS = (n_detected >= 40) AND (n_false_positives <= 10) AND (false_positive_rate <= null_fpr_p95).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"dark_matter_compact_transit"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T02:58:20Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"bootstrap_null_injection_recovery","n_permutations":2000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_detected","value":40.0},"title":"Phase D.5-G2 DM compact transit: 5-domain coincidence classifier detects >=80% of simulated transits at SNR>=5 with FPR<=5%","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"G3 v1 SEED tensor L2 norm history from data/earth_state_tensor.db","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["dam_orbital_phase_radians","dam_expected_modulation_signed","dam_fit_amplitude_pct","dam_fit_phase_offset_days","dam_pvalue_modulation","dam_n_years_fit","dam_data_real"],"git_commit_at_registration":"12e0e0d54669cfbb68ead6ff18a19fa1624b0928","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g3_dark_matter_annual__cb491996","locked_at":"2026-05-20T03:01:53Z","locked_file_sha256":"7a01edb3c43d343651e0abb4f1135dd21e9d6618136cbdd5797c12d655b95c68","notes":"Phase D.5-G3 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = ALL three arms succeed: (a) Lomb-Scargle peak period within 300-440 days, (b) peak phase within +/- 60 days of June 2 (DAMA canonical day-of-year 152.5 per Drukier-Spergel 1986), AND (c) bootstrap p-value <= 0.05 from >= 1000 time-shuffle permutations at the canonical 365.25-day period. Backtest harness: scripts/backtest_g3_dm_annual_modulation.py (synthetic smoke-test PASSED 3-of-3 arms; n_samples=70,128 2-year synthetic, recovered amplitude 1.44%/1.5% injected, phase offset 54d within 60d tolerance, bootstrap p=0.001/0.05). Production runs require tensor history >= 180 days span and >= 60 samples on AX41+CPX41. Null baseline: under no annual modulation, the LS amplitude at the canonical period should not exceed the 95th percentile of time-shuffled nulls; pass requires the observed signal to be a >= 1-in-20 event under the null. Withdraw rule: if tensor history span < 180 days or < 60 samples at the re-evaluation date (i.e., upstream caches not accumulated on production AX41 by 2027-05-21), declare UNDERPOWERED. Tension: DAMA's claim is contested by LUX 2018 + COSINE-100 2021 + ANAIS-112 + XENON1T 2020 modulation null results; if G3 passes it joins DAMA in seeing a signal that NaI/Xe direct-detection counterparts do not; if it fails it provides an independent surface-based null at the published amplitude.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"dark_matter_annual_modulation_signature"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T03:01:43Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"lomb_scargle_peak_with_bootstrap_null_and_phase_check","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"bootstrap_pvalue","value":0.05},"title":"Phase D.5-G3 dark matter annual modulation Lomb-Scargle peak amplitude exceeds bootstrap null at p<=0.05 with DAMA-consistent period and phase","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"G4 v1 SEED IERS C04 LOD history from data/iers_c04_eop.db + AAM/OAM/HAM/seismic attribution pipeline","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["loda_lod_residual_ms","loda_lod_anomaly_z","loda_unattributed_residual_ms","loda_attribution_class","loda_data_real"],"git_commit_at_registration":"123c5bf6ade9e93d31a49a598b44d419c3fc400c","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g4_lod_anomaly_detecto_5a4d8ecb","locked_at":"2026-05-20T03:14:53Z","locked_file_sha256":"49aafe3e40f1baab71f1886c174684b43463e3899e29b8a61b43d8c4c75fa578","notes":"Phase D.5-G4 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = BOTH arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 6 known LOD anomaly events (1992 El Nino peak +1.8ms, 1997-98 El Nino extreme +0.8ms, 2003 Mar acceleration +1.0ms, 2010 Maule M8.8 -1.26ms post-event step, 2020 Mar unexplained +1.5ms, 2024 mid-year +1.0ms) classified ELEVATED/ANOMALY (|z|>=2.5 AND unattributed_fraction>=0.50) against a 30-day local rolling baseline excluding +/-7d event window; AND (b) <=2 of 50 random quiet-control epochs (excluding +/-21d around any known event) falsely classified positive. Bootstrap null: 1000-permutation label-shuffle across the combined 56-epoch pool; one-sided p-value for observing TPR>=observed AND FPR<=observed under no-discrimination null. Headline metric reported to record-result is detection_rate=TP/6. Backtest harness: scripts/backtest_g4_lod_anomaly.py (synthetic smoke-test PASSED: 6/6 TP, 2/50 FP, detection_rate=1.0, bootstrap p=0.001). Production runs require IERS C04 cache spanning 1992-2024 on AX41 (current cache 510+ rows daily). Null baseline: under no discrimination the expected TP at the observed positive-rate is ~0.86 (binomial mean over 6 trials at 50/56 negative rate); pass requires the observed signal to be >=4x the no-skill mean. Withdraw rule: if the IERS cache spans <30 years at re-evaluation (i.e., production backfill incomplete) OR if fewer than 4 of 6 known events fall inside the cache window, declare UNDERPOWERED. Physics references: Chao & Gross 1987 GJI (EQ-induced LOD steps); Lambeck 1980 (Earth's variable rotation); Yang & Song 2023 Nat Geosci (inner-core rotation variation); Chao 1995 GRL (ENSO LOD coupling); Brzezinski & Nastula 2004 GRL (March 2003 anomaly); Vallee 2017 Science / Juhel 2018 GJI (pre-rupture mass redistribution test hypothesis).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"length_of_day_anomaly_event_detection"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T03:14:41Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"z_score_classification_with_label_shuffle_bootstrap_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"detection_rate_tp_over_6","value":0.667},"title":"Phase D.5-G4 LOD anomaly detector classifies >=4 of 6 known historical LOD anomaly events as ELEVATED/ANOMALY with <=2 FP across 50 quiet controls","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"cross_physics/inner_core_wandering_monitor.py + data/inner_core_daily.db (populated by inner_core_0s2_splitting_daily cron 04:25 UTC, schema extension to expose per-m sub-component splittings pending D.1-SPRINT week 3)","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["icw_axis_drift_rate_deg_per_yr","icw_multiplet_asymmetry_score","icw_yang_song_consistency_score","icw_anomaly_flag","icw_rosat_2005_null_compatibility"],"git_commit_at_registration":"27d6fe27369c8f10c2ecf59c8815616c0d357e47","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g5_inner_core_wanderin_465c519d","locked_at":"2026-05-20T03:12:54Z","locked_file_sha256":"6e04281c4036fa6829015c4b7948b220306601266ca96d6b835d133446d8d729","notes":"FORWARD test of the G5 inner-core wandering detector (Phase D.5 5th moonshot). G5 v1 SEED is cross_physics/inner_core_wandering_monitor.py; v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g5_inner_core_wandering.py. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) anomaly_flag fires at least one wander event in the YS2009 window [2004-01-01, 2014-12-31] (i.e. near 2009 plus or minus 5 years per Mike spec), AND (b) total false-positive wander events across 10 control decades (1970s, 1980s, ... excluding the YS2009 window) is less than or equal to 2, AND (c) bootstrap p-value on the YS2009-window event count is less than or equal to 0.05 (N greater than or equal to 1000 time-shuffle permutations). The load-bearing scalar reported to record-result is the bootstrap p-value. Wander event detection threshold is axis drift rate magnitude greater than or equal to 0.10 deg/yr (2x the YS2023 upper-band 0.05 deg/yr). Reference: Yang Y. and Song X. 2023 Nat Geosci 16, 182 (Multidecadal variation of the Earth inner-core rotation); Tkalcic and Pham 2018 Science 362, 329 (J-wave detection of hemispheric anisotropy). Companion to G11 FICW moonshot and the Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE 25-station IGETS network expansion. Re-eval 2027-05-21. CONDITIONAL on D.1-SPRINT completing pieces 1-3 (Hinderer atmospheric loading + ICET pre-corrected data + per-station FG5 calibration audit) which unlock the per-m sub-component SNR greater than or equal to 5 required for multi-station axis-orientation inversion; until then the live backtest will return UNDERPOWERED because the inner_core_daily cache lacks the axis_drift_rate_deg_per_yr column. Synthetic smoke-test PASS verified 2026-05-19 with bootstrap p=0.001 on 60-year monthly history with deliberately-injected 1-year-sigma YS2009 pause/reversal bump. WITHDRAW criterion: if at re-eval the live cache still lacks the axis_drift column or accumulates less than 5 control decades of data, declare UNDERPOWERED rather than null and re-register with extended timeline.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"inner_core_rotation"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T03:12:44Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"ys2009_reproduction_with_control_decade_budget_and_bootstrap_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"bootstrap_pvalue","value":0.05},"title":"Phase D.5-G5 inner-core wandering detector reproduces Yang & Song 2023 2009 pause/reverse","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"cross_physics/earth_mass_redistribution_monitor.py + data/grace_fo.db (populated by GRACE-FO monthly mascon backfill, schema extension to expose global_mass_redistribution_score column pending D.4-SPRINT GRACE-FO backfill)","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["emr_global_mass_redistribution_score","emr_total_terrestrial_water_storage_z","emr_polar_ice_loss_mass_change_gt_yr","emr_anomaly_flag","emr_lod_consistency_with_mass_change"],"git_commit_at_registration":"2a4d9fea457bb0fd3355736e12e4084ada2479e0","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g6_earth_mass_redistri_e839f743","locked_at":"2026-05-20T03:25:44Z","locked_file_sha256":"92852a7381f41e82ab33501fdc8cdeee536cec8699d76e5c4a0097318f2d3266","notes":"FORWARD test of the G6 Earth mass redistribution detector (Phase D.5 6th moonshot). G6 v1 SEED is cross_physics/earth_mass_redistribution_monitor.py; v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g6_earth_mass_redistribution.py. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) anomaly_flag fires within plus or minus 90 days of all 4 reference mass-redistribution events (Tohoku 2011-03-11 M9.0 coseismic step, Maule 2010-02-27 M8.8 coseismic step, Greenland 2019-07-15 extreme summer melt, WAIS Pine Island and Thwaites 2023-07-15 acceleration), AND (b) total false-positive mass-redistribution events across 30 quiet-control 6-month windows (180-day exclusion buffer around any reference event) is less than or equal to 2, AND (c) bootstrap p-value on the reference-event hit count is less than or equal to 0.05 (N greater than or equal to 1000 time-shuffle permutations). The load-bearing scalar reported to record-result is the bootstrap p-value. Composite-anomaly z-score threshold is magnitude greater than or equal to 2.5 (matches G4 LOD anomaly detector convention). References: Chao and Gross 1987 GJI (coseismic gravity steps); Han Sauber and Riva 2011 Science (GRACE detection of Tohoku step); Cambiotti and Sabadini 2012 (Maule step); Velicogna 2020 and Tedesco and Fettweis 2020 The Cryosphere (Greenland 2019 extreme melt); Rignot et al 2024 and IMBIE 2024 (WAIS acceleration); Cox and Chao 2002 Science (1998 J2 anomaly); Wahr 1995 GJI (time-variable gravity from GRACE). Companion to Phase D.5 G1 mass tomography, G2 DM compact transit, G3 DM annual modulation, G4 LOD anomaly detector, G5 inner-core wandering detector. Re-eval 2027-05-21. CONDITIONAL on D.4-SPRINT GRACE-FO monthly mascon archive backfill (NASA JPL RL06.1Mv03) and on the grace_fo_monthly cache exposing the global_mass_redistribution_score column; until then the live backtest will return UNDERPOWERED because the grace_fo.db cache lacks the composite-anomaly column. Synthetic smoke-test PASS verified 2026-05-19 with bootstrap p=0.003 on 23-year monthly history with deliberately-injected Gaussian bumps (sigma=0.10 yr, amplitude=12 sigma) at each of the 4 reference event dates, 1000 permutations, all three arms PASS. WITHDRAW criterion: if at re-eval the live cache still lacks the composite-anomaly column or accumulates less than 5 years of data spanning fewer than 2 of 4 reference events, declare UNDERPOWERED rather than null and re-register with extended timeline.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earth_mass_redistribution"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T03:25:34Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"reference_event_reproduction_with_control_window_budget_and_bootstrap_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"bootstrap_pvalue","value":0.05},"title":"Phase D.5-G6 earth mass redistribution detector reproduces 4 known mass events","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"G7 v1 SEED joint composite of grace_fo_aquifer_storage_monitor + insar_subsidence_monitor + microseism_precursor_tensor_monitor + volcanic_tremor_detector + polar_motion_residual_monitor, monthly cadence, 12-month pre-event window","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["pvi_grace_gravity_rise_microgal","pvi_insar_edifice_inflation_cm","pvi_microseism_amplitude_z","pvi_volcanic_tremor_score","pvi_polar_motion_anomaly_z","pvi_inflation_phase_months","pvi_alert_class","pvi_data_real"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7d3644354ac61b2dede7beb65675e5be5c8189ec","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g7_pre_volcanic_mass_i_0a454003","locked_at":"2026-05-20T03:26:14Z","locked_file_sha256":"8c24484f2916d4373acfcc8d233ea95da7459961deb1ee7266a40514e2d64ef2","notes":"Phase D.5-G7 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = BOTH arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 8 known VEI>=4 eruptions (Pinatubo 1991 VEI6, Eyjafjallajokull 2010 VEI4, Calbuco 2015 VEI4, Anak Krakatau 2018 VEI4, Sakurajima 2019 VEI4, Soufriere 2021 VEI4, Cumbre Vieja 2021 VEI4, Hunga Tonga 2022 VEI5) classified ELEVATED/INFLATION (peak_composite>=0.45 over 12-month pre-event window AND monotonic-trend slope>=0.02 per month over 6-month subwindow) where IGETS/GRACE/InSAR data exists; AND (b) <=2 of 50 quiet-control epochs (random sampling from 13-site active-volcano catalog 1990-2024 excluding +/-18mo around any known event) falsely classified positive. Bootstrap null: 1000-permutation label-shuffle across the combined 58-epoch pool; one-sided p-value (Laplace-smoothed) for observing TPR>=observed AND FPR<=observed under no-discrimination null. Headline metric reported to record-result is detection_rate=TP/8. Backtest harness: scripts/backtest_g7_pre_volcanic_mass_inflation.py (synthetic smoke-test PASSED 2026-05-19: 8/8 TP, 0/50 FP, detection_rate=1.0, bootstrap p=0.001). Production runs require GRACE-FO monthly + InSAR + microseism historical caches spanning 1990-2022 on AX41 (currently sparse pre-2010; v2 path is the historical-cache backfill). Null baseline: under no discrimination the expected TP at a 50/58 negative rate is ~1.1 on 8 trials (binomial mean); pass requires the observed signal to be >=3.6x no-skill mean. Withdraw rule: if fewer than 4 of 8 known events have >=3 monthly samples in the pre-event window at AX41 re-eval time, declare UNDERPOWERED. Companion: D.2-B4 Pre-Eruptive Magma Chamber is the operational alerts layer; G7 is the moonshot DETECTION question. Physics references: Battaglia et al. 1999 J Volcanol Geotherm Res (Long Valley CA microgravity preceding inflation); Carbone & Greco 2007 Pure Appl Geophys (Etna pre-eruptive gravity); Bonvalot et al. 2008 J Geophys Res (volcanic gravimetry); Furuya et al. 2003 J Geophys Res (Iwo-jima island time-variable gravity); Newhall & Self 1982 J Geophys Res (VEI); Lu & Dzurisin 2014 USGS PP (InSAR Aleutian volcanoes); Anderson 2019 GRL (Mauna Loa magma supply rate); Phase 5 microseism universal precursor (this repo, May 2026).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"pre_volcanic_mass_inflation_detection"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T03:26:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"peak_composite_and_monotonic_trend_with_label_shuffle_bootstrap_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"detection_rate_tp_over_8","value":0.5},"title":"Phase D.5-G7 pre-volcanic mass-inflation detector classifies >=4 of 8 known historical VEI>=4 eruptions as ELEVATED/INFLATION in the 12-month pre-event window with <=2 FP across 50 quiet controls","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"cross_physics/pre_eq_free_oscillation_excitation_monitor.py + data/igets_sg/fo_amplitudes.db (populated by scripts/refresh_igets_fo_amplitudes.py, pending). v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g8_pre_eq_free_oscillation_excitation.py","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["peqfo_0s2_football_z","peqfo_0t2_torsional_z","peqfo_0s3_z","peqfo_n_modes_above_z2","peqfo_n_modes_above_z3","peqfo_max_abs_z"],"git_commit_at_registration":"19c0740723333b4f2a6518d12e6aeba820c03f7a","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g8_pre_eq_free_oscilla_66d783af","locked_at":"2026-05-20T03:49:56Z","locked_file_sha256":"708857a37a127a94726220cdfd08c6a6623817a098b7c403bf0657134be5ed39","notes":"FORWARD test of the G8 Pre-Earthquake Free-Oscillation Excitation detector (Phase D.5 8th moonshot). G8 v1 SEED is cross_physics/pre_eq_free_oscillation_excitation_monitor.py monitoring six modes (0S0/0S2/0T2/1S0/0S3/0S4); the backtest restricts to the three primary spheroidal modes 0S2/0T2/0S3 per Park 1996 + Dahlen-Tromp seismology. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) composite amplitude z-score exceeds magnitude 2.5 in any of the three modes within plus or minus 72 hours of at least 3 of 4 reference M8-plus events (Aceh 2004-12-26 M9.1, Maule 2010-02-27 M8.8, Tohoku 2011-03-11 M9.1, Iquique 2014-04-01 M8.2), AND (b) total false-positive at the same threshold across 30 quiet-control 72-hour windows (30-day exclusion buffer from any reference event) is less than or equal to 2, AND (c) bootstrap time-shuffle p-value on the reference-event hit count is less than or equal to 0.05 (N greater than or equal to 1000 perms). The load-bearing scalar reported to record-result is the bootstrap p-value. References: Park 1996 GJI (free-oscillation seismology framework); Park et al 2005 Science (Sumatra 2004 post-event excitation); Bilek 2003 J Seismol (free-oscillation post-event survey); Dahlen and Tromp 1998 Theoretical Global Seismology; Stein and Wysession 2003 (intro); Buland and Gilbert 1976 GRL (low-frequency seismology + Earth modes); Yamashita 1999 J Phys Earth (nucleation phase); Olson 2017 GRL (slow rupture nucleation). Companion to Phase D.5 G1 mass tomography, G2 DM compact transit, G3 DM annual modulation, G4 LOD anomaly, G5 inner-core wandering, G6 Earth mass redistribution, G7 pre-volcanic mass inflation. Re-eval 2027-05-21. CONDITIONAL on operational IGETS SG free-oscillation amplitude cache (data/igets_sg/fo_amplitudes.db with mode column 0S2/0T2/0S3 and amplitude_z column) and on the cache spanning 2004-2014 to cover all 4 reference events; until then the live backtest will return UNDERPOWERED. Synthetic smoke-test PASS verified 2026-05-19 with bootstrap p=0.00699 on 166560-hour history with deliberately-injected Gaussian bumps (sigma=24 h, amplitude 6-10 sigma above baseline) at each of the 4 reference event dates, 1000 permutations, all three arms PASS (TP=4, FP=0). OTS Bitcoin anchor deferred to AX41 (Python 3.14 ots binary broken locally). WITHDRAW criterion: if at re-eval the live cache lacks the per-mode amplitude column or fewer than 2 of 4 reference events fall inside the cache span, declare UNDERPOWERED rather than null and re-register with extended timeline.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":8.0,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T03:49:45Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"reference_event_reproduction_with_control_window_budget_and_bootstrap_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"bootstrap_pvalue","value":0.05},"title":"Phase D.5-G8 Pre-EQ Free-Oscillation Excitation v2 backtest","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"G9 v1 SEED 7-station NMDB residual (OULU/JUNG/APTY/ROME/BKSN/ATHN/AATB) + GRACE-FO local TWS, daily cadence, +/-180d pre-and-post-event window, 2002-2025 NMDB era","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["crtm_residual_anomaly_pct","crtm_grace_tws_local_mm","crtm_partial_correlation_r","crtm_correlation_p_value","crtm_n_months_overlapping","crtm_predicted_signal_strength_log10","crtm_n_stations_active","crtm_significant_pair_count","crtm_inversion_confidence_0_1","crtm_data_real"],"git_commit_at_registration":"979532d9ffd1347ac2169c3d290592f6588efa96","hypothesis_id":"20260520_phase_d_5_g9_cosmic_ray_terrestr_817f01fc","locked_at":"2026-05-20T03:48:15Z","locked_file_sha256":"aa8e94271849ae74dd44f8a8118ed86dc1537098d62b7b0d2d8f80ee54677837","notes":"Phase D.5-G9 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = ALL three arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 5 reference mass-redistribution events (Tohoku 2011 M9, Maule 2010 M8.8, Sumatra-Andaman 2004 M9.1, Greenland 2019 extreme melt, WAIS Thwaites 2023 acceleration) classified positive (peak |z| >= 2.0 within +/-180d window after Storini-Pase barometric + Belov Forbush correction); (b) <=3 of up to 30 quiet-control epochs (randomly sampled from 2002-2025 excluding +/-365d around any reference event) falsely classified positive; (c) one-sided label-shuffle bootstrap p-value <= 0.05 on the joint (TP, FP) outcome. Headline metric reported to record-result is bootstrap_pvalue. Backtest harness: scripts/backtest_g9_cosmic_ray_terrestrial_mass_modulation.py (synthetic smoke-test PASSED 2026-05-19: 5/5 hits, 0/12 FP, bootstrap p=0.001). Production runs require multi-decade NMDB daily archive on AX41 (data/cosmic_ray/nmdb_*.csv) which is sparse pre-2010 -- expect UNDERPOWERED until full backfill lands. Phase 65t-AUDIT confirmed NMDB pipeline cleanup retained signed cosmic_ray_rate_anomaly (May 2 2026 retro fill recompute fixed sign-stripping bug); 7-station verified-live list adopted post Phase 65u-FORBUSH May 6 cleanup (NWKN dead, THUL decommissioned 2017, KIEL/SOPO/MCMU/DRBS/CALG returning no-data HTML). Predicted signal floor 10^-5 fractional cosmic-ray rate change per 1 m WEH redistribution over 100 km radius. Differs from Phase 5b (May 2 2026) cosmic-ray null findings (Forbush -> volcanic eruption, Forbush -> M5+ EQ, Forbush -> microseism amplitude -- ALL NULL at sub-week timescales) because G9 tests LONG timescales (months) where slow mass redistribution accumulates. Null baseline: under no discrimination at z=3.0 threshold and 2-of-30 control-positive rate, expected TP across 5 ref events is ~0.3 (binomial mean) -- pass requires observed >= 4 = >=13x no-skill mean. Withdraw rule: if fewer than 3 of 5 reference events have >= 30 daily samples available in the +/-180d window at AX41 re-eval time, declare UNDERPOWERED. Companion: D.5-G6 Earth mass redistribution + D.5-G7 pre-volcanic mass inflation = same physical observable class via different sensor (G6 GRACE-FO + LOD, G7 GRACE-FO + InSAR + microseism, G9 cosmic-ray attenuation). Physics references: Forbush 1937 Phys Rev (cosmic-ray storm decrease); Storini & Pase 2010 Adv Space Res (barometric correction); Belov et al. 2009 Adv Space Res (Forbush statistical analysis); Hess & Vallarta atmospheric cascade; Han et al. 2011 Science (GRACE Tohoku); Tedesco & Fettweis 2020 Cryosphere (Greenland 2019 melt); Rignot et al. 2024 (Thwaites collapse); Phase 5b cross-physics cosmic-ray null findings (this repo, May 2026).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":8760.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"cosmic_ray_terrestrial_mass_modulation_detection"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T03:48:01Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"peak_window_zscore_classification_with_label_shuffle_bootstrap_null","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"bootstrap_pvalue","value":0.05},"title":"Phase D.5-G9 Cosmic-Ray Terrestrial Mass Modulation v2 backtest","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-21"},{"data_source":"IGETS L2 (EOST + ICET when available) 2009-2026 + D.1-SPRINT correction pipeline (Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading + FG5 K-scale registry + joint LS 12-constituent tidal subtraction) + Y_4^2 proper associated Legendre basis (v3.1 fix)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["l4_v31_epsilon_4","l4_v31_bootstrap_lower_2sigma","l4_v31_bootstrap_upper_2sigma","l4_v31_n_stations_contributing","l4_v31_cos2_normalized_spread_pct"],"git_commit_at_registration":"45e5ad7b9476ffcaf80327bf9d31eaa16fd7c253","hypothesis_id":"20260520_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v3_1_fir_7b08afb9","locked_at":"2026-05-20T01:56:36Z","locked_file_sha256":"56534ab7844b4b5271173b7745c9e120fc5b68736aa040b2ebdf1908d835b4d9","notes":"D.1-SPRINT v3.1 forward test for first-ever planetary l=4 admixture measurement.  re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-19.  Two outcomes:  (1) Y_4^2 basis + 24-station IGETS + D.1-SPRINT corrections produces fit consistent with Wahr 1981 prediction at 2sigma -- first-ever planetary l=4 measurement paper (JGR Solid Earth / GJI); (2) Fit inconsistent or systematic-dominated -- methods-clean bound + roadmap to v4 (ECMWF pressure scraper + ICET L2 + more stations).  Pre-eval 2026-11-19; full re-eval 2027-05-19.  This is the FIRST PRE-REGISTERED l=4 admixture forward test in the literature.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"epsilon_4 fitted within 2sigma of Wahr 1981 prediction"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T01:56:25Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"back_compat_legacy_basis":"P_4_scalar (v2/v3.0; physically wrong for m=2 tide)","basis_function":"Y_4^2_associated_legendre","bootstrap_method":"station-resampling with replacement","bootstrap_n_iter":1000,"integration_years":5,"predecessor":"Phase D.1-A6 v3 (commits e8737c8f + 99e8ca3c) -- SYSTEMATIC_DOMINATED with scalar P_4 basis; epsilon_4 fit -87 percent in left tail of bootstrap [-1465 percent, +1550 percent]","stations_expanded_target":["strasbourg","wettzell","moxa","conrad","cantley","metsahovi","kamioka","canberra","sutherland","onsala","pecny","walferdange","larzac","schiltach","trappes","membach","bad_homburg","medicina","concepcion","hsinchu","mizusawa","lhasa","djougou"],"v3_synthetic_validation":"12-station noise-free synthetic at true epsilon_4=0.00700 -- Y_4^2 recovers exactly; P_4 returns -0.11061 (16x off + wrong sign)","wahr_1981_predicted_range":[0.005,0.01]},"method":"The fitted epsilon_4 (l=4 admixture ratio in M2 latitude shape) lies within the 2sigma bootstrap confidence interval of the Wahr 1981 + PREM prediction range epsilon_4 ~ 0.005-0.010 (0.5-1.0 percent admixture)","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"epsilon_4_within_2sigma_of_wahr_1981_range","value":0.0},"title":"Wahr 1981 l=4 admixture v3.1 -- first-ever measurement with proper Y_4^2 basis + 5y IGETS + D.1-SPRINT corrections","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-11-19"},{"data_source":"data/prediction_ledger.db + cross_physics/paired_megafault_predictor.py","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["pmf_joint_score","pmf_posterior_alert_prob_7d","pmf_both_elevated","pmf_n_pairs_joint_elevated"],"git_commit_at_registration":"05b1f678362e876cd2b622fa22419dd8029ffa92","hypothesis_id":"20260521_v2_paired_megafault_paleoseismic_70095bae","locked_at":"2026-05-21T17:33:07Z","locked_file_sha256":"1ecf965f266edbbf27a8f7ee3b66188c1a68c8a143f48ead5b105364bd6f6d8d","notes":"Replaces withdrawn v1 (20260510_goldfinger_option_3_paired_megaf_9e4c90a0).  V1 was withdrawn because the monitor module shipped without a log_prediction call site, making paired_n>=5 unreachable in window.  V2 registered after cross_physics/paired_megafault_predictor.py + GATES_BY_MODEL['paired_megafault'] entry + AX41 cron land.  Same scientific test (Goldfinger 2025 paired-megafault paleoseismic prior, n=3-in-1500yr giving per_year=0.002 with 95%CL [0.0004, 0.0058]).  Filter: model_name = 'paired_megafault' (the new predictor uses this verbatim).  Pass: paired_match_rate / unpaired_match_rate >= 2.0 AND paired_n >= 5 over the forward window.  Withdraw if paired_n < 5 -- meaning either joint-elevation events did not occur (a legitimate scientific null) OR the predictor's elevation gate is too strict (operational issue worth a v3).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":4.5,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-19","registered_at":"2026-05-21T17:32:53Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"match_rate_ratio_paired_vs_unpaired","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"match_rate_ratio","value":2.0},"title":"v2: paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost (post-predictor) -- paired predictions match rate >=2x unpaired baseline","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"nasa_omni_1h.db + sse_catalog_expanded.csv (future appended Cascadia events) + scripts/sse_piezo_em_stacked_epoch_v3.py","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["ae_index_1h"],"git_commit_at_registration":"a19d249f8acbbe45ac3a4ed55504cd063890d8f5","hypothesis_id":"20260522_cascadia_sse_ae_index_1h_precurs_79517a3b","locked_at":"2026-05-22T18:11:55Z","locked_file_sha256":"b9fdf7a7d7e696e3b3e72af724a7183a033a350b0aeaf26b9a964c44169843eb","notes":"FORWARD replication test of the May 22 2026 v3 hypothesis-generating finding (parent hypothesis 20260522_sse_piezo_electromagnetic_precur_682c9ac6 recorded as DISCONFIRMING at the global level).\n\nPARENT v3 result on Cascadia regional split (45 documented SSEs 2005-2018 from Wech-Bartlow PNSN catalog, post per-event-bin SEM correction, post F10.7 quartile-matched control, post Kp >= 5 storm exclusion within +/- 5d):\n  ae_index_1h at Cascadia: +6.51 sigma at lag -105h (Bonferroni FWER 0.001, N=37 events used)\n\nH1 (this forward test): The same effect persists at +z >= 3 (looser than +6.51 to allow per-event variance) on Cascadia SSEs that OCCUR between 2026-05-22 and 2028-05-22 (forward window). Cascadia ETS rate is approximately 2-3 events / year per PNSN tremor catalog; over 24 months we expect 4-7 new events, each independently testable against the same methodology + locked NASA OMNI ae_index_1h archive.\n\nDecision rule: re-run scripts/sse_piezo_em_stacked_epoch_v3.py with --per-region-split --exclude-kp-storms on the post-2026-05-22 Cascadia SSE subset using the same lag bins (8 bins across 336h pre-window). PASS if Cascadia ae_index_1h shows stacked z >= +3 (one-tailed positive direction) at any pre-event lag bin within +/- 42h of the parent finding's -105h lag.\n\nCAVEATS preserved per Nulls Paper Section 7:\n1. v3 was HYPOTHESIS-GENERATING. Parent v2 was the pre-registered NULL. This forward test pre-registers the v3 finding as a confirmatory candidate.\n2. The piezoelectric coupling MECHANISM is one interpretation; reverse causality (magnetospheric activity triggers SSEs via Coulomb stress modulation) is also plausible and not separable in this test.\n3. Effect size in forward test may be smaller than parent +6.51 due to regression-to-mean.\n4. If only 1-2 new Cascadia SSEs occur in the 24mo window, statistical power is insufficient -- in that case the hypothesis is WITHDRAWN as underpowered rather than declared null or confirmed.\n\nOUTCOME INTERPRETATION:\n  PASS: Cascadia ae_index_1h precursor confirmed -- candidate for GRL/Nature submission with prospective + retrospective combined analysis.\n  FAIL (z < 3): Parent +6.51 likely was post-hoc selection from 4 regions x 5 channels x 8 lag bins = 160 implicit tests after Bonferroni-40 protection; the finding does not replicate prospectively.\n  UNDERPOWERED: <3 new Cascadia SSEs in the 24mo window; withdraw + re-register with longer window.\n\nPUBLICATION COMMITMENT (Nulls Paper Section 7): result will be recorded in the registry within 30 days of re-eval date 2028-05-22, regardless of outcome.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-22","registered_at":"2026-05-22T18:11:44Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"stacked_epoch_z_with_solar_cycle_and_kp_storm_control","n_permutations":10000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"z_score_post_F10p7_control_and_post_Kp5_storm_filter","value":3.0},"title":"Cascadia SSE ae_index_1h precursor forward replication: +z >= 3 at lag -105h on new Cascadia ETS 2026-05-22 to 2028-05-22","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2028-05-22"},{"data_source":"Sentinel-2 L2A via Microsoft Planetary Computer STAC + IRIS FDSN 3-component + IRIS FDSN microseism","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["phc_kaolinite_score","phc_vegetation_chlorosis_score","phc_iron_oxide_score","phc_pol_em_deflection_score","phc_vertical_splitting_score","phc_composite_score_0_1"],"git_commit_at_registration":"e49ebcf6ac8a979ec96471a0554f1476562adacc","hypothesis_id":"20260522_phc_v0_3_with_250km_play_scale_r_6a8cd857","locked_at":"2026-05-22T00:07:00Z","locked_file_sha256":"7a73faf3e28f25a8e757ee4a18788e1a5b46f6bd6bb329e23bdadbc7a981a714","notes":"PRE-REGISTERED FORWARD TEST.  Re-run scripts/backtest_passive_hc_composite.py --mode regional_anomaly --cohort-radius 250 on AX41 in 90 days (2026-08-21).  Pass criteria (BOTH required): (1) recall at threshold 0.15 >= 60% on the 3 documented Hingeline producers (Covenant Field, Providence Field, Anschutz Ranch East -- per Moulton & Pinnell 2005 OGJ + Chidsey et al. 2007 UGA Pub 36 + Floyd_Moulton-2.pdf), AND (2) false-positive rate at threshold 0.15 <= 20% on the 5 non-producer controls (Bonneville Salt Flats, GSL center, SLC urban, Sevier Lake basin axis, Park City Cu/Au porphyry).  TODAY'S v0.3 BASELINE (2026-05-21T23:57Z, calibration data committed in data/backtest_ax41_phc_v0_3_regional_anomaly_250km.json): threshold=0.15 gives recall 67% (Providence 0.231 + Anschutz 0.198 fire, Covenant 0.005 suppressed) AND FP 0% (all 5 controls < 0.15).  Methodological note: v0.3 is the FIRST PHC iteration to achieve clean Moulton-style discrimination at a useful threshold without false alarms, vindicating the 50km->250km play-scale cohort-radius expansion as the right fix for the v0.2 finding that the 50km cohort was inside the Hingeline trend itself.  Known v0.3 limitation: Covenant signal lost (0.005) because Covenant's neighborhood ALSO has Moulton-anomaly signatures across multiple counties; v0.4 work would explore play-margin-aware cohort selection.  Parallel issue: mss (spectral_splitting_monitor) channel still returns data_real=0 at all sites due to hvsr_basin_mapper assertion failure on master/AX41 (hvsr fix committed in this PR; mss should start contributing on next AX41 backtest run after PR merges + cron pulls).  References: Moulton & Pinnell 2005 OGJ; Chidsey et al. 2007 UGA Pub 36 'Petroleum geology of Covenant oil field'; Schumacher 1996 AAPG Memoir 66 'Hydrocarbon-Induced Alteration of Soils and Sediments'; Cassidy 2007; Pride 1994; PICKUP_UTAH_OG_MAY21.md (dense-array synthesis).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"oil_gas_surface_signature"},"registered_at":"2026-05-22T00:06:36Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"10_site_hingeline_backtest_v0_3_250km","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"recall_at_threshold_0_15","value":0.6},"title":"PHC v0.3 with 250km play-scale regional anomaly normalization reproduces threshold=0.15 clean discrimination (recall >= 60% AND FP <= 20%) on Hingeline backtest","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-21"},{"data_source":"Phase 5 v1.2 bg_filter (running daily on AX41) + 18 of 27 VQ instruments + IGETS SG + INTERMAGNET + IRIS FDSN + FIRMS IR","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["gravimeter_step","magnetometer_pulse","accelerometer_transient","seismic_blast","atmospheric_ir_pulse","5domain_coincidence_count"],"git_commit_at_registration":"5735e7cd9aee2e90eadacda1c5ce24b40ba892dd","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a10_asteroid_mass_pbh_10_17_0044dfc0","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:25:23Z","locked_file_sha256":"6bb71716ec99ae980204bd007fbca7094d6d10338594629a84c11f8a9419f8e3","notes":"Asteroid-mass PBH transit search (E-1 from Apr 23 2026 brainstorm, partially active per memory/pbh_moonshot.md). 5-domain coincidence filter leveraging 18 of 27 VQ instruments -- nobody else can run this search. Apr 25 v1.2 produced upper bound <=8.4/yr; v1.3 audit Apr 28 showed null degenerate at v1.3 settings (88pct snapshots trigger stage-1 coincidence). A10 formalizes the 540-day forward search with pre-registered SNR>=5 threshold per domain and >=3 of 5 domain agreement. Honest prior: most likely outcome is null with tightened upper bound (publishable). Detection at any rate would be Nobel-tier. Direction negative means we are testing for absence of signal (rate UPPER bound below 10/yr); a confirmed positive detection of any signal at SNR>=5 across >=3 domains would be a CONFIRMED outcome despite the negative-direction encoding.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"dark_matter"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-11-17","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:24:38Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"5domain_coincidence_filter_with_poisson_null_upper_bound","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"annual_rate_upper_bound_at_3of5_snr5","value":10.0},"title":"MARS-A10: Asteroid-mass PBH (10^17 to 10^23 g) transits through Earth produce a 5-domain coincidence signature (gravimeter step + magnetometer pulse + accelerometer transient + seismic blast + atmospheric IR pulse) at synchronized timestamps across >= 3 of 5 domain detectors at SNR >= 5 each. Detection or upper-bound rate < 10 per year (matches Apr 25 v1.2 bounds) over 540-day forward window.","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GCN Kafka gcn.notices.superk.sn_alert + USGS M3+ FDSN feed + IGETS live + Phase 65p neutrino_eq_precursor","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["superk_sn_neutrino_burst_alert_timestamp","iris_fdsn_m3plus_within_48h_1000km","igets_sg_residual_at_burst_epoch","2channel_correlation_p_value"],"git_commit_at_registration":"5735e7cd9aee2e90eadacda1c5ce24b40ba892dd","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a11_if_a_galactic_supernova_7a312ff9","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:25:23Z","locked_file_sha256":"95b455b01775e1f39ef10412b28dbc1e82195849e3ab197fbdcd5af1189eb2c5","notes":"Forward-going 730-day window neutrino-supernova-EQ correlation test. Extension of Fischbach 1986 disconfirmation (Phase 65p Apr 19 2026 null at p=0.30 over 14 M7+ events on real IceCube Gold/Bronze archive) to the supernova-burst regime where neutrino flux is 10^58 vs IceCube standard astrophysical flux. Galactic SN base rate ~1-3pct/yr per Adams 2013 means most likely outcome is window with zero SN events -- still publishable as a methods-clean upper bound. GCN Kafka gcn.notices.superk.sn_alert already subscribed since Phase 65u-RIGOR May 4 2026. cross_physics/neutrino_eq_precursor_monitor.py already shipped Phase 65p with interpretation_guide warning against single-detector p-hacking -- A11 mandates >=2 channels at p<0.001 to avoid this trap. Direction negative because forward-test outcome is most likely null.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":48.0,"min_magnitude":3.0,"type":"neutrino_supernova_earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:25:01Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"neutrino_triggered_correlation_2channel","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"p_value_2channel_agreement","value":0.001},"title":"MARS-A11: If a galactic supernova within <=50 kpc occurs in the forward window, neutrino burst (Super-K SN-alert via GCN Kafka) triggers concurrent search at IRIS FDSN seismic stations + IGETS gravimeter for any M3+ earthquake within +-48h x +-1000km. Detection if any M3+ EQ correlates at p<0.001 across both physics channels; null otherwise. Supernova has approximately 1-3pct probability per year per Adams 2013; null result publishable as no evidence for SN-neutrino-EQ correlation if no SN occurs OR if SN occurs but no triggered EQs.","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"data/dm_realdata_v2.db + data/private/mars_sci/a1/cache/band_power.db (IRIS MUSTANG noise-PDF + Open-Meteo archive + NOAA SWPC F10.7 + NDBC wave-height)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["microseism_band_power_0p1_0p5hz","annual_fourier_amplitude_db","stacked_snr","phase_consistency_rayleigh_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"99e8dbab6d82d002c6299b3d57f065b70b035c1b","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a1_annual_modulation_residu_b79122e6","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:00:07Z","locked_file_sha256":"6a00e78c0e5171266830d0a3c2cba5bbb0c6c605c88cbe58b9c186cd06611e96","notes":"Mars-shot codename MARS-A1 (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). Builds on Phase 65g Dark Matter v2 pipeline (scripts/dm_real_data_pipeline.py) which runs daily 04:00 UTC on AX41 with 105 GSN stations + 822 days cached PSD + 15 quiet Antarctic/island stations stacking. Honest prior: previous DM v1 ran p=0.613 on 0.5-2.0 Hz band (null, microseism-dominated). v2 switched to 0.1-0.5 Hz quiet band per Phase 65g Apr 16 memo, accumulation phase. MARS-A1 adds NEW analysis layer extracting seasonal-residual signature specifically: annual Fourier mode at 1/365.25 day^-1 frequency after OLS subtraction of synthetic atmospheric (Open-Meteo barometric pressure) + oceanic (NDBC wave height) + solar-cycle (F10.7 cm radio flux) model with Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading correction. Per-station bootstrap null via 1000 random-phase shuffles. Inverse-variance-weighted stack across 15 stations. Detection requires stacked SNR > 3 AND phase consistency on >=8 of 15 stations (Rayleigh p < 0.05). Null result: methods-clean upper bound on sub-eV bosonic DM coupling cross-section, comparable to Aurel et al. 2025 PRD framework. 18-month accumulation is BINDING WINDOW per Mars-shot brief; quarterly intermediate checks (2026-08-26, 2026-11-26, 2027-02-26, 2027-05-26, 2027-08-26) are trajectory-tracking only, NOT go/no-go. Re-eval 2027-11-17. AX41 daily cron at 04:45 UTC. References: Aurel et al. 2025 PRD on sub-eV bosonic DM seismic coupling; Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading correction; Phase 65g DM v2 memo (memory/phase65g_pipeline_fixes.md).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"dark_matter_seasonal_modulation"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-11-17","registered_at":"2026-05-26T03:59:51Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"accumulation_window_days":540,"band_hi_hz":0.5,"band_lo_hz":0.1,"covariates":["open_meteo_surface_pressure","ndbc_wave_height","swpc_f107_daily"],"loading_correction":"hinderer_1995","null":"random_phase_shuffle","phase_consistency_min_stations":8,"quarterly_checks":["2026-08-26","2026-11-26","2027-02-26","2027-05-26","2027-08-26"],"rayleigh_p_max":0.05,"stations":["IU.QSPA","IU.SBA","IU.CASY","AI.VNDA","AI.SNAA","IU.MIDW","IU.RPN","II.EFI","II.HOPE","II.PMSA","II.CRZF","IU.NWAO","II.COCO","II.DGAR","G.PAF"]},"method":"stacked_annual_fourier_with_atmospheric_oceanic_solar_residual","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"stacked_snr","value":3.0},"title":"MARS-A1: Annual modulation residual in microseism band power 0.1-0.5 Hz at 15 quiet Antarctic/island stations after atmospheric+oceanic+solar-cycle model subtraction over 18-month accumulation window","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-11-17"},{"data_source":"data/igets_sg_archive/* (24 stations, 2009-2026 EOST L2)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["peak_amplitude_uhz","peak_p_value","n_stations_passing","phase_coherence_score","coherent_stack_snr"],"git_commit_at_registration":"407ad73319a5f147349558b3ec7ce1ae48c5e934","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a2_0s0_fundamental_whole_ea_1b0bbb26","locked_at":"2026-05-26T03:54:24Z","locked_file_sha256":"567a0d122b136b40a6467721c480d058d0a57db7dce65518a7f1fcaa84963188","notes":"MARS-A2 (Mars-shot codename) is the first of 6 A-shots in the Six Science Mars-Shots Phased Program brief (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0, shipped 2026-05-26, data/private/decks/dmai_six_science_mars_shots_brief_v1.{md,pptx,pdf}). MARS-A2 tests the BROADER 0S0 ambient mode confirmation question -- does the canonical 0S0 fundamental radial mode at 813.92 uHz (period 20.5 min, Lamb-Love 1882 theoretical, Park & Gilbert 1986 first observational confirmation) appear at p<0.001 in our 24-station IGETS SG coherent stack across the 2009-2026 archive after ICET-corrected per-constituent harmonic subtraction (M2/S2/N2) and Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading correction. This is DISTINCT from Phase D.1-SPRINT v4 hypothesis 20260521_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v4_forwa_a6ae7dc5, which tests the NARROWER l=4 admixture calibration sub-question on the same IGETS infrastructure. Both share preprocessing dependencies (OSO Chalmers BLQ + Hinderer v2 atmospheric admittance) so MARS-A2 kickoff is gated on the same Mike-action: OSO Chalmers FES2014b BLQ files arrive via Mike-action send-ready memo at reports/phase_d1_a6_item4_oso_chalmers_send_ready_memo.md (~10 min copy-paste + ~24h response time). Re-evaluation calendar: 90 days from kickoff (NOT registration). Kickoff date is set when OSO BLQ files arrive and pipeline fires; calendar entry will be updated then. DISPOSITION RULES: PASS if peak amplitude at 813.92 +/- 1 uHz survives p<0.001 (50000-bootstrap) across >=5 stations AND cross-station phase coherence verifies (phase_coherence_score > 0.7); methods-clean NULL if peak not detected at this significance after full ICET + Hinderer preprocessing. HONEST PRIOR: Detection probable. Phase D.1-SPRINT v4 IGETS SG infrastructure is already producing per-station spectra showing the canonical 0S0 line. Park & Gilbert 1986 and ~40 years of subsequent literature have detected 0S0 at confidence levels much higher than p<0.001 in coherent stacks of fewer stations than our 24. A confirming result is the expected outcome and would be the first MARS-shot detection confirmation. A null would indicate a calibration/preprocessing pathology in our pipeline and would require investigation before any other MARS-shot can claim detection.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":2160.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"free_oscillation_detection"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-24","registered_at":"2026-05-26T03:54:00Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"bootstrap_method":"block_bootstrap_n50000","frequency_tolerance_uhz":1.0,"mode":"0S0","period_minutes":20.5,"preprocessing":"ICET_corrected_plus_M2_S2_N2_harmonic_subtraction_plus_Hinderer_1995_atmospheric_loading_correction","stack_method":"complex_coherent_stack_across_stations","target_frequency_uhz":813.92},"method":"hanning_window_fft_coherent_stack","n_permutations":50000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_stations_passing_p_lt_0p001","value":5.0},"title":"MARS-A2: 0S0 fundamental whole-Earth radial mode at ~814 µHz period 20.5 min detected at p<0.001 across >=5 of 25 IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter stations using Hanning-window FFT coherent stacking","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-24"},{"data_source":"data/igets/ (IGETS SG archive 2009-2026, 24 stations) + Bos-Scherneck 2013 + IERS Conv 2010 atmospheric/oceanic corrections + Hinderer 1995 v1 empirical beta atmospheric loading","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["igets_daily_mean_ugal","secular_trend_slope_ugal_per_yr","atm_corr_residual","ocean_tide_residual","plume_proximity_km","reference_station_baseline"],"git_commit_at_registration":"c6d1099709c51de30bb87fd642ba58767ab3a07c","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a3_multi_year_secular_gravi_382dfdca","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:11:50Z","locked_file_sha256":"4064b13fe5ff83cbf602a0f60d427a0195040507d126c7b0f43d13abce71e441","notes":"Mars-shot codename MARS-A3 of the Six Science Mars-Shots phased program (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). Tests whether mantle plume / hot-spot proximity (10 known plume sites: Hawaii, Iceland, Galapagos, Yellowstone, Afar, Bouvet, Canary Islands, Reunion, Tahiti, East African Rift) imprints a detectable secular gravity drift signature at IGETS SG stations relative to 6 tectonically quiet reference stations (Pecny CZ, Walferdange LU, Membach BE, Onsala SE, Trappes FR, Schiltach DE). Path B v0.1 uses current Bos-Scherneck 2013 + IERS Conv 2010 midpoint corrections + Hinderer 1995 v1 empirical beta -- ships NOW on 17-year archive. Path A v0.2 sharpens with OSO Chalmers FES2014b BLQ files upon arrival (Phase D.1-SPRINT v4 shares same engineering deps). Detection: aggregate ratio >= 3.0 with bootstrap p<0.01 (1000-perm null via random station-label shuffle). Bonferroni: 10 plume x 6 reference = 60 pairs (corrected p<0.001 per-pair). Methods-clean null still publishable as constraint on mantle-plume gravity signature at IGETS sensitivity. Honest expectation: many plume sites lack close IGETS SG coverage (most IGETS infrastructure is Europe + East Asia + Australia); only 4-6 of 10 plume locations are likely to match an SG within 500 km. Real coverage gaps explicitly preserved as data_real=0 in result -- NOT fabricated. Forward test 24mo window for trend persistence + Path A re-run with FES2014b BLQ on OSO arrival. Re-eval 2028-05-26.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"mantle_convection_signature"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:11:35Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"archive_years":[2009,2026],"atmospheric_correction":"Bos-Scherneck 2013 + IERS 2010 + Hinderer 1995 v1 (Path B)","bonferroni_pairs":60,"bootstrap_n":1000,"detection_p_threshold":0.01,"null":"random_station_label_shuffle","plume_proximity_km":500,"plume_stations_targeted":["Hawaii","Iceland","Galapagos","Yellowstone","Afar","Bouvet","Canary_Islands","Reunion","Tahiti","East_African_Rift"],"reference_stations":["Pecny","Walferdange","Membach","Onsala","Trappes","Schiltach"],"v0p2_path_a_blq":"queued on OSO Chalmers FES2014b BLQ arrival (Phase D.1-SPRINT v4 shared dep)"},"method":"secular_trend_slope_ratio_with_bootstrap_label_shuffle","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"plume_to_reference_slope_ratio","value":3.0},"title":"MARS-A3: Multi-year secular gravity drift at IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter stations within 500 km of known mantle plume / hot-spot locations exceeds tectonically quiet reference stations by ratio >= 3.0 on 2009-2026 cohort","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2028-05-26"},{"data_source":"IGETS SG archive (24 stations Phase D.0 expanded catalog) + ICET solid-Earth tide + Open-Meteo barometric pressure (Hinderer 1995) + Bos-Scherneck 2013 / IERS 2010 ocean loading (v0.1 Path B; sharpens to Path A FES2014b BLQ on OSO Chalmers arrival)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["psd_0p1_to_1000_nhz","stacked_snr_per_band","peak_frequency_nhz","peak_snr","n_stations_above_threshold"],"git_commit_at_registration":"5a1c06946c5d1bad3329b1dd05f84c990fb4d6e9","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a4_solar_helio_tomography_v_18290950","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:14:28Z","locked_file_sha256":"a5aad0498a0424ae54d3d11a10ddfceec9ea70985ea5a4f4611662a0b0e51c69","notes":"Mars-shot codename MARS-A4 (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). MOST AMBITIOUS of the 6 shots - planet-scale passive solar observatory via 24-station IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network. Sub-microhertz signal detection requires sqrt(t) SNR growth from coherent stacking; 36-month integration gives 6x SNR boost vs 1 month. Three target frequency bands: (1) 11-yr solar cycle harmonic ~3 nHz, (2) 27-day solar rotation ~430 nHz, (3) lower-order solar g-mode candidates 100-300 nHz. Detection at SNR>=3 across >=6 of 24 stations after Bonferroni correction over 72 tests (3 bands x 24 stations) at p<0.001 = first-ever direct gravitational detection of solar g-modes via global SG array. Historical context: Fossat 2017 GOLF/VIRGO claimed solar g-mode detection but disputed by independent re-analysis - extreme caution on any positive signal. Null = methods-clean upper bound on solar gravitational mode coupling at ~10^-11 to 10^-13 m/s^2 sensitivity depending on integration time. FIRE-AND-FORGET design: v0.1 baseline establishes measurement; v0.2/0.3/0.4 = monthly cron accumulation; quarterly snapshots track SNR growth. First meaningful science ~Q2 2027 (12+ months of integration). Re-eval 2029-05-27. Closes Phase MARS-SCI program with all 6 A-shots pre-registered + Bitcoin-anchored. References: Fossat 2017 A&A solar g-mode claim (disputed); Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading; Bos-Scherneck 2013 ocean loading; ICET solid-Earth tide; Phase D.0 IGETS 25-station expansion; Phase D.1-SPRINT v4 calibration pipeline.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"solar_gravitational_coupling"},"reevaluate_at":"2029-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:14:13Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"accumulation_window_days":1095,"band_hi_nhz":1000.0,"band_lo_nhz":0.1,"bonferroni_corrected_p":0.001,"bonferroni_tests":72,"corrections":["icet_solid_earth_tide","hinderer_1995_atmospheric_loading","ocean_loading_path_b_to_path_a"],"min_stations_above_threshold":6,"monthly_baseline_cron":"15 5 1 * *","null":"random_phase_shuffle","quarterly_snapshot_cron":"30 5 1 1,4,7,10 *","stations":["Strasbourg","Wettzell","Moxa","Conrad","Cantley","Metsahovi","Kamioka","Canberra","Sutherland","Concepcion","Djougou","Onsala","Pecny","Walferdange","Larzac","Schiltach","Trappes","Membach","Bad-Homburg","Medicina","Hsinchu","Mizusawa","Lhasa","Apache-Point"],"target_bands_nhz":{"solar_cycle_11yr":[2.85,3.2],"solar_g_mode_candidates":[100.0,300.0],"solar_rotation_27day":[425.0,435.0]}},"method":"coherent_stacked_psd_solar_band","n_permutations":500},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"stacked_snr","value":3.0},"title":"MARS-A4: Solar helio-tomography via global IGETS SG array - 24-station coherent stacked PSD in 0.1-1000 nHz band over 36-month forward window 2026-05-27 to 2029-05-27 detects spectral peaks at solar gravitational modulation frequencies (11-yr cycle ~3 nHz, 27-day solar rotation ~430 nHz, solar g-mode candidates 100-300 nHz) with SNR >=3 across >=6 stations after Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading + Path A FES2014b BLQ + ICET solid-Earth tide corrections","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2029-05-27"},{"data_source":"IRIS FDSN BHZ broadband + earth_state_tensor.db + retro_tensor.db","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["tensor_microseism_residual","bhz_waveform_0p1_1hz_band_power","prerupture_residual_z_lag_minus24h_to_minus1h"],"git_commit_at_registration":"4ca4ac02fca8a6917bc5452a01804e141d0824bf","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a5_at_m9_historical_earthqu_ffd40f79","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:25:23Z","locked_file_sha256":"9b8ef0eeb16bd97de9990acb03113193cd3baef8eb979301d6f7075cee441c3c","notes":"Extension of Phase 65u-MICROSEISM-LIVE / Phase 5 v1 (test R^2=0.052 on microseism summary band power). A5 extends to full BHZ waveform 0.1-1 Hz at M9+ rupture-class events. Honest prior: Phase 5 found microseism mostly orthogonal to other 111 retro tensor features; M9+ stratum is the cleanest test of whether full-waveform precursor exists at all. Most likely outcome: publishable null. Six target events: Aceh 2004-12-26 M9.1, Maule 2010-02-27 M8.8, Tohoku 2011-03-11 M9.1, Sumatra 2012-04-11 M8.6, Iquique 2014-04-01 M8.2, Illapel 2015-09-16 M8.3.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":24.0,"min_magnitude":9.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-11-22","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:23:29Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"tensor_ridge_residual_stacked_epoch","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"z_score_prerupture_residual","value":3.0},"title":"MARS-A5: At M9+ historical earthquakes 1900-2026 (Aceh 2004, Maule 2010, Tohoku 2011, Sumatra 2012, Iquique 2014, Illapel 2015), tensor-conditioned waveform residual (predicted minus observed) at the nearest IRIS FDSN broadband station shows pre-rupture signature in the 0.1-1 Hz band with z-score >= +3 sigma vs background at lag -24h to -1h after fitting a tensor to waveform ridge regression. Phase 65u-MICROSEISM-LIVE Phase 5 v1 already established 0.5 sigma class residual prediction; A5 extends to M9+ stratum where signal-to-noise is maximal.","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"data/retro_cache/nmdb_cosmic_ray.db + data/usgs_global_events.db + data/solar_cycle_archive.db","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["cosmic_ray_oulu_counts","cosmic_ray_apty_counts","cosmic_ray_jung_counts","cosmic_ray_rome_counts","cosmic_ray_bksn_counts","cosmic_ray_athn_counts","cosmic_ray_aatb_counts","cosmic_ray_rate_anomaly","f107_daily"],"git_commit_at_registration":"99e8dbab6d82d002c6299b3d57f065b70b035c1b","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a6_cosmic_ray_flux_pre_even_adbcb2fb","locked_at":"2026-05-26T03:56:23Z","locked_file_sha256":"40e76486aec6d2d4d47bd7fc4325c39fc6875e3a08801fed776fcd97b7cfc107","notes":"Mars-shot codename MARS-A6. Extends Phase 5 microseism universal precursor methodology to cosmic-ray channel. Phase 5 found cosmic-ray-EQ null at p>=0.6 on M5+ events; A6 tests M6+/M7+ where signal cleanliness improves. NMDB 7-station network: OULU/APTY/JUNG/ROME/BKSN/ATHN/AATB. Test computes pre-event z-score asymmetry (T-24h to T0 vs T0 to T+24h) per event, controls for F10.7 solar cycle covariate. Bootstrap null via 1000 random-phase shuffles. Bonferroni corrected for 2 strata (M6+ ~1400 events, M7+ ~150 events). Honest expectation: publishable null update to 40-year Fischbach 1986 cosmic-ray-EQ conjecture, OR confirmation that survives at higher magnitude. Re-eval 2026-11-22 (180d forward window, analysis-only -- archive complete).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":48.0,"min_magnitude":6.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-11-22","registered_at":"2026-05-26T03:56:18Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"archive_years":[2010,2024],"asymmetry_ratio_threshold":3.0,"bonferroni":2,"covariate":"f107_daily","null":"random_phase_shuffle","strata":["M6+","M7+"],"window_hours":48},"method":"stacked_epoch_z_asymmetry_with_f107_control","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"pre_post_asymmetry_ratio","value":3.0},"title":"MARS-A6: Cosmic-ray flux pre-event asymmetry at NMDB 7-station network within +/-48h of M6+ and M7+ EQ events on 14-year archive 2010-2024","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-11-22"},{"data_source":"data/retro_cache/gvp_eruptions.db + IRIS FDSN + IGETS SG + Open-Meteo + USGS Volcano Hazards","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["microseism_secondary_band_3s","igets_sg_gravity_residual_ugal","infrasound_band_power_db","atmospheric_pressure_z_7d","gvp_vei_event_index","sleeping_giant_unrest_score","tensor_eigenmode_drift","volcanic_tremor_band_power"],"git_commit_at_registration":"c6d1099709c51de30bb87fd642ba58767ab3a07c","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a7_multi_physics_tensor_pre_2091f22a","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:11:44Z","locked_file_sha256":"d0e5cb70e82d66ac6e6c314ab9ebf414f9c815771901585f7cd0c0b5ee5215dc","notes":"Mars-shot codename MARS-A7. Phase 2 of MARS-SCI program, paired with MARS-A3. Extends Phase 5 microseism universal precursor methodology to decade-scale supervolcano context with 4-channel co-detection requirement. Sleeping-giants ranking from Phase 5c v1.1 (Long Valley/Yellowstone/Tambora/Toba/Hualalai/Bardarbunga/Campi_Flegrei/Aira/Iwo_Jima/Soda_Lakes_NV). GVP catalog 1900-2026 expected to contain 30-50 VEI>=4 events at or within 50 km of the 10 watch-list sites. Stacked-epoch across all events at lags T-5y/T-2y/T-1y/T-6mo/T-3mo/T-1mo/T0. Z-score per channel vs background (5y pre-event minus 10y background). Detection if z>=+3sigma at >=2 of 4 channels with Bonferroni p<0.01 (40 tests = 10 events x 4 channels at peak lag). Honest expectation: with only 30-50 events across 10 different volcanoes, individual-site statistical power is limited but cross-site stacked-epoch should reveal common precursor signatures if they exist. Most likely outcome: publishable methods-clean null on decade-scale supervolcano precursors, OR a stacked-epoch detection that prior literature could not see without our multi-physics tensor framework. Forward test 1095-day window for any new VEI>=4 event at the 10 watch-list sites should re-trigger the same channels at the same lag.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":43800.0,"min_magnitude":4.0,"type":"volcano"},"reevaluate_at":"2029-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:11:29Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"archive_years":[1900,2026],"bonferroni":40,"channels":["microseism","gravity","infrasound","atmospheric"],"lags":["T-5y","T-2y","T-1y","T-6mo","T-3mo","T-1mo","T0"],"min_channels_required":2,"vei_min":4,"watch_list":["long_valley_ca","yellowstone_wy","tambora","toba","hualalai","bardarbunga","campi_flegrei","aira","iwo_jima","soda_lakes_nv"],"window_years":5,"z_threshold":3.0},"method":"stacked_epoch_multichannel_z_score_5y_window","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_channels_passing_z_threshold","value":2.0},"title":"MARS-A7: Multi-physics tensor precursor signatures within 5-year pre-event window of historical VEI>=4 eruptions at 10 sleeping-giant volcanoes (Long Valley CA, Yellowstone WY, Tambora, Toba, Hualalai, Bardarbunga, Campi Flegrei, Aira, Iwo Jima, Soda Lakes NV) exhibit z>=+3sigma on >=2 of 4 channels (microseism, gravity, infrasound, atmospheric) vs background tensor state on GVP catalog 1900-2026","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2031-05-25"},{"data_source":"IGETS SG archive (25 stations Phase D.0 expansion) + bundle-36 PCA replication","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["0s2_multiplet_asymmetry_microhertz","inner_core_daily_rotation_rate_deg_per_yr","lomb_scargle_peak_power_05_to_3yr_band"],"git_commit_at_registration":"4ca4ac02fca8a6917bc5452a01804e141d0824bf","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a8_inner_core_rotation_rate_d5223b4b","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:25:23Z","locked_file_sha256":"83df905d6fea402c60abb0392fef4df93218051d6fb8d4dfbb92aff4bc410b85","notes":"Independent reproduction of Yang and Song 2023 Nature 622:734 inner-core rotation reversal. Train on 2009-2016 (matches Phase D.1-A6-CLOSE Track C v3 setup), validate held-out on 2017-2026. Uses EOST-only IGETS L2 with M2/S2/N2 calibration corrections per Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE Bug 2 fix (May 18 2026). 25-station catalog from Phase D.0 expansion (Onsala, Pecny, Walferdange, Membach, Schiltach, Bad-Homburg, Larzac, Trappes, Medicina, Apache-Point, Concepcion, Sutherland, Hsinchu, Mizusawa, Djougou + 10 prior). Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE / Phase D.1-A6-CLOSE Track C v2 daily 2009-2026 is the primary input pipeline. Honest prior: Phase 65w found 6.20h candidate line not Slichter (M4 ocean-tidal-loading contamination); Yang-Song reproduction was paused for Track C v2 reader fix. v0.1 will run on EOST-only deduped Track C v3 output.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"geophysics_inner_core"},"reevaluate_at":"2029-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:23:54Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"lomb_scargle_with_perm_null_held_out_validation","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"z_score_peak_power","value":3.0},"title":"MARS-A8: Inner-core rotation rate timeseries 2009-2026 derived from coherent-stack 0S2 multiplet asymmetry at 25 IGETS SG stations (Phase D.0 expansion) shows sub-decadal 0.5-3yr oscillation with Lomb-Scargle peak power exceeding 1000-perm null shuffle at z >= 3 in the bundle-36-replication held-out subset 2017-2026 (post fit on 2009-2016). Tests Yang and Song 2023 Nature finding that inner-core rotation reversed in 2009-2010. Reproduction with independent network -- we use EOST-only L2 IGETS; they used Alaska earthquake waveforms.","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"USGS M8+ feed + GCN Kafka igwn.gwalert + IGETS SG live + Phase 65p tensor","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["igets_prompt_gravity_residual_within_1000km","lvk_noise_residual_at_rupture_origin_plusminus_100s","gw_newtonian_precursor_tensor_channel"],"git_commit_at_registration":"4ca4ac02fca8a6917bc5452a01804e141d0824bf","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_a9_for_any_m9_earthquake_oc_e2c835b6","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:25:23Z","locked_file_sha256":"a6d457a441b9bc740c97e2f143b41093ddca3992b510f4ac6d0cc79bd4e5d079","notes":"Forward-going 365-day window prompt-gravity coincidence test at M9+ rupture class. Extends Phase 65p gw_newtonian_precursor (Vallee 2017 / Juhel 2018) to NEW LVK Run 5 era (begins late 2026). Honest prior: M9+ events have ~10pct/yr base rate so window may yield zero detection (publishable null). Existing modules: cross_physics/gw_newtonian_precursor_monitor.py (Phase 65p, 10 features), igets SG live ingest (Phase 65p-DEPLOY), GCN Kafka igwn.gwalert subscribed since Phase 65u-RIGOR May 4 2026. ARTIFACT outcome possible if single-channel signal at SNR>=3 without 2-of-3 agreement -- those go to followup not publication.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":0.05,"min_magnitude":9.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-05-26","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:24:15Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"multi_channel_coincidence_snr_threshold","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"min_channel_snr_with_2of3_agreement","value":3.0},"title":"MARS-A9: For any M9+ earthquake occurring 2026-05-26 through 2027-05-26, prompt gravity signature (Vallee 2017 + Juhel 2018) is detected at SNR >= 3 across >= 2 of (a) IGETS SG within 1000km of epicenter, (b) co-incident LVK gravitational-wave detector noise residual within +-100s of rupture origin, (c) Phase 65p gw_newtonian_precursor tensor channel. NULL if no M9+ events occur in window; CONFIRMED if M9+ event detected with multi-channel agreement; ARTIFACT if single-channel signal only.","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"Convergence Gate v7 (88 channels), Phase 5 microseism universal precursor (Phase 5 May 2026 +19sigma finding), ETAS aftershock forecaster (Reasenberg-Jones 1989), USGS FDSN local catalog, BSA v1.2 cyclic_safety_score static prior","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["composite_score_0_1","recommendation_class","static_prior_css","convergence_gate_score","microseism_precursor_score","eq_activity_score","etas_forward_score","detection_rate","false_positive_rate"],"git_commit_at_registration":"40aeee30c62e3dc13e63b2f8d14934ca4f563f50","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_bsa_cycling_real_time_bsa_c_5e9ffdd5","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:54:36Z","locked_file_sha256":"4a401c9a906930e691c2227941e9e159aab5443f4707ebccee80f43e6274c491","notes":"v0.1 synthetic baseline: detection 70% (3 missed -- Aliso Canyon, Mont Belvieu salt cavern, Hutchinson Yaggy; all primarily geomechanical caprock failures with weak seismic precursors), FPR 0% on BSA v1.2 top-10 controls. v0.2 swaps synthetic snapshot for AX41 retro-tensor replay. v0.3 adds CAPROCK_FATIGUE_GEOMECHANICAL sub-axis to lift detection on engineering-failure cases. Engine module cross_physics/bsa_cycling_recommendation_engine.py. API at /api/v1/bsa/cycling-recommendation. AX41 cron 25 6 * * *. Design doc reports/brine_storage/bsa_cycling_engine_v0p1_design.md. Re-eval 2026-11-21 (180d). DeepMap AI Inc. BSA v1.2 Upgrade #2 of 7.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"operational_engine_calibration"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-11-22","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:54:23Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"deterministic_backtest_10_incidents_10_controls + production_replay_30d_window","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"detection_rate_and_FPR","value":0.8},"title":"MARS-BSA-CYCLING: Real-time BSA cycling-safety recommendation engine combining Phase 5 universal precursor + Convergence Gate v4/v7 + ETAS Forecaster + USGS local EQ activity + BSA v1.2 cyclic_safety_score (static prior) produces a forward 180-day false-positive rate <= 5% (PAUSE_24H or HARD_STOP_REVIEW issued when NO induced-seismicity event occurs within 30d of recommendation) on a synthetic backtest at 10 Aliso-Canyon-class historical incidents, with detection rate >= 80% on the real incidents.","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-11-21"},{"data_source":"Per-well wellhead surface gravimeter timeseries (CG-5 / FG5 / A10 / iGrav per site) + cycling pressure log + BSA v1.2 formation-type tag","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["stacked_snr_per_cycle","array_gain_sqrt_n_coherence","effective_array_floor_ugal","min_resolvable_density_change_pct","coherence_metric_0_1","snr_of_stacked_mean"],"git_commit_at_registration":"3af806b1de4d9dd6f5b9bfccfba2c60382e14f7a","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_bsa_distgrav_a_100_well_bsa_f7b6b038","locked_at":"2026-05-26T05:06:54Z","locked_file_sha256":"5d44545f9f9045af26fef4a70b95d7dd7063685966ffb165b55072cca444e08e","notes":"v0.1 first-run synthetic 4-well coherence demo recovered true_slope=0.10 uGal/MPa as stacked_mean=0.104 +- 0.0094 (SE), giving snr_of_stacked_mean=11.1 and coherence_metric=0.787 (STRONG). SNR-vs-N curve generated from N=1 to N=100, matching sqrt(N) law within 5% on synthetic data. Module cross_physics/bsa_distributed_gravimeter.py. Forward test: replay against real operational data when first BSA pilot reaches N>=4 cycling wells. Withdraw clause: if no BSA site reaches N=4 by 2027-05-25 declare UNDERPOWERED and re-register against next operational milestone. Design doc reports/brine_storage/bsa_distributed_gravimeter_v0p1_design.md. Re-eval 2027-05-25 (365d). DeepMap AI Inc. BSA v1.2 Upgrade #3 of 7.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"geophysics_array_gain_calibration"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-05-26","registered_at":"2026-05-26T05:06:41Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"snr_vs_n_curve_replay_on_operational_data + theoretical_sqrt_n_comparison","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"empirical_snr_over_theoretical_snr_ratio","value":0.95},"title":"MARS-BSA-DISTGRAV: A 100-well BSA pressure-cycling array, with each well instrumented with a CG-5 (or better) wellhead gravimeter and a documented coherence efficiency epsilon in [0.5, 0.9] depending on formation type, achieves a coherent-stack SNR boost >= 0.95 * sqrt(N * epsilon) -- meaning the empirical SNR curve from N=1 to N=100 obeys the theoretical sqrt(N) array-gain law within 5% over a 365-day operational window. Treats BSA wells THEMSELVES as a distributed gravimeter array, filling the IGETS coverage gap (25 stations globally, ~0 of BSA pilot sites within 500 km).","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-05-25"},{"data_source":"IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network 25 stations 2009-2026","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["m2_amplitude","s2_amplitude","n2_amplitude","k1_amplitude","o1_amplitude","fos_0s2","fos_1s0","fos_0t2"],"git_commit_at_registration":"3d9192321b967174e47f9814583eac0ae41f2bee","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_earth_cavendish_newton_g_fr_daa12be5","locked_at":"2026-05-26T05:09:34Z","locked_file_sha256":"d6aa1b03492d4eeee7ca5b1dce4fb5a048b92ce3a01a6be50d0242ed8a027f7e","notes":"MARS-EARTH-CAVENDISH: Using the 25-station IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network's lunar tidal gravity response (M2 + S2 + N2 + K1 + O1 constituents) combined with free oscillation amplitudes (0S2 + 1S0 + 0T2 from Phase 65aa modules) over the 17-year archive 2009-2026, after Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading + Path A FES2014b ocean tidal loading + ICET solid-Earth tide correction, measure Newton's G via joint inversion against PREM elastic-property uncertainty. Target: relative uncertainty <= 50 ppm -- a factor of 2.5x improvement over current best Cavendish-balance measurements. Detection if measured G falls within 4 sigma of one BIPM lab group AND outside 4 sigma of another, resolving the long-standing G-measurement discrepancy. Methods-clean null otherwise establishes that planetary-scale G measurements share similar systematics to lab-scale, providing upper bound on G uncertainty pathway. Re-eval 2028-05-25 (730d window).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"fundamental_constant"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T05:09:08Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"joint_mcmc_inversion_G_love_numbers","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"relative_uncertainty_ppm","value":50.0},"title":"MARS-EARTH-CAVENDISH Newton G from 25-station IGETS lunar tidal response with free oscillation cross-validation","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2028-05-25"},{"data_source":"GEBCO bathymetry + NOAA WOA seafloor temperature + CTBTO IMS hydrophones + EMAG2 + GRACE-FO + IODP/JOIDES Resolution + national program literature","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["bathymetry_500_2000m","seafloor_temp_gradient","hydroacoustic_backscatter_proxy","emag2_magnetic_anomaly","grace_continental_margin_gravity","bsr_signature_proxy","sub_bottom_thickness","methane_volume_estimate","climate_risk_score","national_program_overlap"],"git_commit_at_registration":"3af806b1de4d9dd6f5b9bfccfba2c60382e14f7a","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_methane_hydrate_globally_id_16015a37","locked_at":"2026-05-26T05:07:54Z","locked_file_sha256":"39aa289f369d27a74dcecc15bccec2237412469ba23a0a5c7b13edc55a28132b","notes":"Mars-shot MARS-METHANE-HYDRATE.  Largest unexploited fossil reserve (1,500-3,000 Gt methane carbon) + largest climate-risk methane source.  Passive multi-physics scoring on continental margins 500-2000m depth.  Hypothesis split: at least 100 candidate provinces globally + at least 10 supporting either (a) pilot-scale extraction economics OR (b) climate-risk monitoring deployment.  Forward window 730 days.  Pass = both thresholds met.  Honest expectation: detection of catalog candidates is straightforward (literature already documents ~30 known + ~70 candidate provinces); the harder test is whether multi-physics scoring discriminates pilot-class from monitoring-class.  Re-eval 2028-05-25.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T05:07:37Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"global_continental_margin_multi_physics_atlas","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_provinces_high_confidence","value":100.0},"title":"MARS-METHANE-HYDRATE: Globally identify >=100 high-confidence methane hydrate provinces on continental margins via passive multi-physics scoring (hydroacoustic backscatter as BSR proxy + sea floor temperature gradient + bathymetry stability zone + gravity drift signature + EMAG2 magnetic anomaly), at depths 500-2000m on passive + active continental margins. >=10 provinces should support either (a) pilot-scale extraction economics or (b) climate-risk monitoring deployment. Top provinces should overlap with national programs (Japan METI Nankai, US DOE GoM, India ONGC Krishna-Godavari, China CGS South China Sea, Korea KIGAM Ulleung, Norway Equinor Barents).","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2028-05-25"},{"data_source":"usgs_nure_gamma + usgs_mrds + geoscience_australia_gamma + nrcan_gamma + egdi_eu + cprm_brazil + gsi_india","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["k_abundance","u_abundance","th_abundance","th_k_ratio","th_u_ratio","mrds_proximity","geological_province","gamma_composite"],"git_commit_at_registration":"3af806b1de4d9dd6f5b9bfccfba2c60382e14f7a","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_ree_globally_identify_rare__2a906627","locked_at":"2026-05-26T05:09:00Z","locked_file_sha256":"7a3ebc4d1b5ba822f485e4bf7d2877b3d45323181b768d1748168b37fa60a6e0","notes":"MARS-REE: Globally identify >=500 candidate REE deposits via multi-physics scoring combining gamma spectroscopy (K/U/Th from NURE/cosmic-ray gamma) + USGS MRDS REE occurrence cross-correlation + geological province context + cyclic-pattern Th/K and Th/U ratio anomalies + per-deposit estimated REE concentration. Of these, >=50 sites should score Phase 65w-FS-class composite (>=9.0) and represent realizable commercial discovery candidates at $50-200M/yr extraction economics. Top-10 candidates outside China (US + Australia + Canada + Brazil + India + EU) should support US Critical Minerals Office pilot funding pursuits.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"mineral_discovery"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T05:08:28Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"multi_physics_composite_score","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_box_elder_class_composite_ge_9","value":50.0},"title":"MARS-REE: Globally identify rare earth element deposits via gamma + MRDS multi-physics scoring","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GRACE-FO L3 monthly mascons (JPL/CSR/GFZ public) 2009-2026 + IGETS SG archive (24 stations Phase D.0 expanded) + USGS NWIS groundwater levels (US only via NWIS waterservices API) + AQUASTAT national pumping estimates","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["grace_recharge_rate_mm_per_yr","igets_gravity_drift_ugal_per_yr","nwis_water_level_drift_m_per_yr","combined_snr","modality_agreement_count","sustainable_yield_m3_per_yr","extraction_cost_usd_per_m3"],"git_commit_at_registration":"407ad73319a5f147349558b3ec7ce1ae48c5e934","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_w1_global_1_1_aquifer_recha_c0232de8","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:58:08Z","locked_file_sha256":"543290caa24e1b3b4376517106ce3100a26dbf3dab3a46d0bbad2518e17f8e40","notes":"Mars-shot codename MARS-W1 of the Mars-shots water-pillar program (CLAUDE.md Phase MARS-SCI). First global 1deg x 1deg aquifer recharge map at planetary scale, constructed from 17-yr GRACE-FO mascon archive + IGETS SG point-precise drift + USGS NWIS groundwater levels. 3-modality cross-validation: GRACE (primary, global coverage, ~150K km^2 resolution), IGETS (secondary, ~25 station global network for verification at km-scale), NWIS (tertiary, US-only validation). Outcome criterion: >=500 high-confidence sustainable-yield basins globally (combined SNR >= 3 across >= 2 of 3 modalities); >=50 at <=USD 0.15/m^3 extractive economics. Honest expectation: most 1deg x 1deg cells will have only GRACE coverage (~150K km^2 resolution natively, downsampled to 1deg = ~110km); NWIS limited to US (~2000-3000 wells in cache); IGETS sparse outside Europe/Japan (same coverage gap as MARS-A3 0/10 plume matches at 500km). Customer-tier: World Bank Water Resources Group, UN-Water, national water ministries, agricultural insurance carriers, desal-plant siting consultants. Forward-window 730d (2yr) for any commercial pilot validation cycle. v0.1 ships planetary atlas now; v0.2 sharpens with NASA GES DISC GLDAS comparison + FAO AQUASTAT cross-validation + global IGRAC well dataset for non-US verification. Methods-clean even if final basin count <500 (publishable as constraint on planet-scale sustainable-yield mapping at current sensor sensitivity). Re-eval 2028-05-25.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"recharge_atlas"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:57:50Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"archive_years":[2009,2026],"basin_target_count":500,"bootstrap_n":1000,"detection_p_threshold":0.01,"economics_target_count":50,"economics_threshold_usd_per_m3":0.15,"grace_proximity_cap_km":110,"igets_proximity_cap_km":500,"modality_agreement_threshold":2,"null":"random_grid_label_shuffle","nwis_proximity_cap_km":100,"resolution_degrees":1.0,"snr_threshold":3.0},"method":"cross_modality_snr_agreement_with_bootstrap_label_shuffle","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"high_confidence_basin_count","value":500.0},"title":"MARS-W1: Global 1°×1° aquifer recharge rate atlas constructed from GRACE-FO monthly mascons + IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter point-gravity drift + USGS NWIS groundwater levels (where available) over the 17-year archive 2009-2026 identifies >=500 high-confidence sustainable-yield candidate basins globally (combined SNR >= 3 across >= 2 of 3 sensor modalities), of which >=50 should support extractive operations at <= 0.15 USD/m^3 economics. Verifies the GRACE-FO where is the water actually being recharged signal against IGETS point-precise gravity drift + NWIS measured levels.","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2028-05-25"},{"data_source":"global_pressurized_atlas_v0p1","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"1c0944c27e7a3423132e1a2e7fb34ac5920c21c1","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_w2_globally_pressurized_sub_0a1a0910","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:45:47Z","locked_file_sha256":"be18fc0ac6e52f4b94bb3c1e03511cb1654cbfca9353e94c75d709af814cadf3","notes":"MARS-W2 (Phase MARS-SCI Water Pillar). Extends 373-site US-Western Master Atlas to global cohort across 4 continents. Pass = >=500 candidate sites surveyed AND >=80 score composite >= 9.0 (Box-Elder-class). Forward window 2 years for commercial pilot conversion. Pre-registered before any data collection on the global cohort. Companion to P069 (USPTO 64/050,287 RPW provisional). Re-eval 2028-05-25.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"global_atlas_expansion"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:45:31Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"5_axis_p069_screening_with_cyclic_safety","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_sites_composite_ge_9p0","value":80.0},"title":"MARS-W2: Globally, pressurized subsurface formations identifiable via passive multi-physics scanning (5-axis P069 methodology + cyclic safety) exist at >=500 candidate sites distributed across South America (Andean basins), Africa (East African Rift + sub-Saharan), Asia (Tarim + Mekong + Indus), and Oceania (Murray-Darling + New Zealand); of these, >=80 should score Phase 65w-FS Box-Elder-class (composite >= 9.0)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2028-05-25"},{"data_source":"submarine_spring_atlas_v2","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"ceed8ee8a368e52e7e1ccc54097061a11981fcb0","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_w3_the_submarine_spring_atl_009fa178","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:53:06Z","locked_file_sha256":"7f5676cd9fe5bcc807e691b69ec1497fe7cdc4841afcd5908fbf2fcf9112de58","notes":"MARS-W3 (Phase MARS-SCI Water Pillar shot 3). Extends Submarine Spring Atlas v1 (122 sites, Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE / Phase 65x) globally to >=250 catalog sites adding Mediterranean basin expansion (Greece/Italy/Cyprus/Crete/Lebanon/Israel/Egypt/Turkey), South Pacific (Fiji/Tonga/Samoa/French Polynesia/Vanuatu/Solomon Islands), Indian Ocean (Maldives/Mauritius/Madagascar/Seychelles/Reunion/Mozambique), Caribbean expansion (Bahamas/Cuba/Dominican Republic/Puerto Rico/Jamaica/Cayman/Antigua), Atlantic islands (Canary/Madeira/Azores/Bermuda/Iceland), North America extension (FL Panhandle/Texas Gulf/PNW/Alaska SE), Mexico continuing (deeper Yucatan/Baja Sur/Gulf of California). Scores each site on v1 5-axis methodology (karst host, hydraulic head, thermal anomaly, salinity reduction, bathymetry geometry). High-confidence cluster = multi-physics agreement across >=3 of 5 axes. Each top-5 new cluster supports a pilot-ready commercial brief at $200K-$500K scale targeting coastal water utilities / national authorities. Companion to v1 atlas + P069/PWI cross-license vision. Re-eval 2028-05-25 (730d forward window).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"global_atlas_expansion"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:52:23Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"5_axis_multi_physics_sgd_screening","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_new_high_confidence_clusters","value":10.0},"title":"MARS-W3: The Submarine Spring Atlas v2 expanded from 122 to >=250 catalog sites identifies >=10 new high-confidence (multi-physics confirmation across >=3 of 5 axes) submarine groundwater discharge clusters with realizable freshwater extraction economics ($0.020/m3 or better, beating reverse osmosis desal by >=30x). Top-5 new clusters should each support pilot proposals to coastal water utilities at $200K-$500K pilot scale.","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2028-05-25"},{"data_source":"Open-Meteo + Sentinel-3 SLSTR + USGS NWIS + IAEA + AQUASTAT + SMU heat flow + Submarine Spring Atlas v1 + NASA SHARAD","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["diurnal_temp_amp_C","aquifer_depth_m","geothermal_gradient_C_per_km","salinity_gradient","atm_pressure_variability_kPa","deployability_index","mars_isru_index"],"git_commit_at_registration":"df47ba02ee206fa31e89746b7017910f545e173d","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_w6_vacuum_anywhere_atlas_v0_40e9e700","locked_at":"2026-05-26T05:13:28Z","locked_file_sha256":"a7e31e4087aed71f01bb97ef852f812d7666aac1984aa8326bba1914575f78df","notes":"MARS-W6: Globally identify >=500 candidate sites where passive vacuum pumping (Heron of Alexandria extension to 350m depth via combined diurnal thermal cycling + atmospheric pressure differential + subsurface aquifer access) provides freshwater extraction at <=USD 0.10/m3, leveraging diurnal temperature amplitude >=20C + subsurface aquifer presence within 350m + geothermal or salinity gradient supporting passive cycling. Of these, >=50 sites should support pilot-scale demonstration at USD 50-150K per installation. Top-10 sites by aridity x deployability index represent immediate commercial water-access pilots (drought relief). Mars-ISRU dual-use claim: same physics enables future Mars subsurface ice extraction. Pass criterion locked: >=500 CANDIDATE cells globally AND >=50 PILOT-READY cells (composite >= 90) AND >=10 sites with extraction economics <= USD 0.10 per m3. Forward window 730 days for any commercial pilot conversion or NASA-ISRU technology-transfer engagement. Brand DeepMap AI Inc. only. References Heron of Alexandria circa 50 AD vacuum-prime extension extending pumping depth from Torricellian 10.3m to 350m via combined passive vacuum + thermal cycling; cross-references P069 USPTO 64/050/287 Replenishable Pressurized Water Program.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"water_resource_atlas"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-05-25","registered_at":"2026-05-26T05:12:51Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"global_5_axis_composite_screen","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_pilot_ready_sites_and_dollars_per_m3","value":500.0},"title":"MARS-W6 vacuum-anywhere atlas v0.1 freshwater extraction via passive vacuum pumping Heron of Alexandria extension to 350m depth","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"data/private/mars_sci/wild3/cache/band_power_50station.db (IRIS MUSTANG noise-PDF + IGETS Phase D.0 expansion + USGS continuous gravimeters + academic gravimeters + Open-Meteo barometric + NOAA SWPC F10.7 + Bos-Scherneck 2013 ocean tidal loading)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["microseism_band_power_0p1_0p5hz","annual_fourier_amplitude_db","stacked_snr_50station","phase_consistency_rayleigh_p_50station","per_station_systematic_correction_residual"],"git_commit_at_registration":"67981e55c63157f3292040f289bcbeb2ac09227b","hypothesis_id":"20260526_mars_wild_3_50_station_global_co_61287beb","locked_at":"2026-05-26T04:54:01Z","locked_file_sha256":"279e82128e0067c5ea9e41b509661cc4894a8b1c4f2ff0bbd68389595dee6966","notes":"Mars-shot codename MARS-WILD-3 (DMAI-SCI-WILD-003 v1.0). Direct sister-shot extension of MARS-A1 (hypothesis 20260526_mars_a1_annual_modulation_residu_b79122e6, currently in 18-month accumulation at 15 quiet stations) to ~50 stations globally for sqrt(50)/sqrt(15) ~ 1.83x additional SNR ceiling boost, or theoretical 7x absolute SNR over single-station baseline. Cohort: 15 quiet Antarctic/island (A1 carryover) + 24 IGETS Phase D.0 expansion (Strasbourg, Wettzell, Moxa, Conrad, Cantley, Metsahovi, Kamioka, Canberra, Sutherland, Concepcion, Djougou, Onsala, Pecny, Walferdange, Larzac, Schiltach, Trappes, Membach, Bad Homburg, Medicina, Hsinchu, Mizusawa, Lhasa, Apache Point) + 8 USGS continuous gravimeters (Boulder CO, Honolulu HI, Anchorage AK, Albuquerque NM, El Paso TX, Reno NV, Bozeman MT, Fairbanks AK) + 3 academic gravimeters (in IGETS-comparable noise floor). NEW REGIME: MeV-scale axion-like particle coupling accessible only at extended-cohort SNR (per-station SNR ~0.3 too low to discriminate from sub-eV bosonic DM regime). Per-station systematic correction: Hinderer 1995 atm loading + ICET solid-Earth tide + Bos-Scherneck 2013 ocean tidal loading (will upgrade to Path A FES2014b via sibling OSO BLQ kickoff) + per-station 5-yr baseline noise floor. Detection: SNR > 3 at 1/365.25 day^-1 across >=14 of 50 stations with phase consistency. Null: methods-clean upper bound on sub-eV bosonic DM AND axion-like coupling at IGETS-class sensitivity floor -- publishable as tightest combined bound to date (PRL/PRD target). COMPLEMENT to A1 not replacement; both run in parallel for Bayesian evidence stacking with independent cohorts. Cross-validation logic: A1 detects + WILD-3 confirms => high-confidence detection; A1 detects + WILD-3 null => systematic candidate (quiet-cohort issue); A1 null + WILD-3 null => cleanest possible bound. HONEST CAVEATS: per-station systematics may NOT cancel perfectly in coherent stack; emergent signal could be common-mode atmospheric or solar-cycle confound -- Apr 25 Phase 5 solar-cycle artifact gate lesson applies (prompt-gravity collapsed +15sigma -> +2.6sigma post-control). 4 quarterly intermediate checkpoints over 18-month window are trajectory-only, NOT go/no-go; final 18-mo read 2027-11-17 is binding. AX41 daily cron at 35 4 * * * (10 min before MARS-A1 45 4 * * * so combined cohort data is ready). Re-eval 2027-11-17. References: Aurel et al. 2025 PRD on sub-eV bosonic DM seismic coupling; Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading; Bos & Scherneck 2013 ocean tidal loading; Path A Chalmers FES2014b; Phase D.0 IGETS expansion (memory/phase_mars_sci.md); MARS-A1 hypothesis sister-shot 20260526_mars_a1_annual_modulation_residu_b79122e6.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"dark_matter_seasonal_modulation_extended_cohort"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-11-17","registered_at":"2026-05-26T04:53:33Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"accumulation_window_days":540,"band_hi_hz":0.5,"band_lo_hz":0.1,"covariates":["open_meteo_surface_pressure","swpc_f107_daily","hinderer_1995_atm_loading","bos_scherneck_2013_ocean_tidal_loading","icet_solid_earth_tide"],"n_stations_academic":3,"n_stations_igets_d0":24,"n_stations_quiet_a1":15,"n_stations_target":50,"n_stations_usgs_continuous":8,"null":"random_phase_shuffle_per_station","phase_consistency_min_stations":14,"quarterly_checks":["2026-08-26","2026-11-26","2027-02-26","2027-05-26","2027-08-26"],"rayleigh_p_max":0.05,"regime_meV_scale_axion_like":true,"regime_sub_eV_bosonic_dm":true,"snr_boost_expected":7.07},"method":"stacked_annual_fourier_50station_with_per_station_systematic_correction","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"stacked_snr_50station","value":3.0},"title":"MARS-WILD-3: 50-station global cohort Dark Matter seasonal modulation residual at sqrt(50) ~ 7x SNR boost over MARS-A1, detection or exclusion of sub-eV bosonic DM AND MeV-scale axion-like particle coupling at SNR > 3 over 18-month forward window","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-11-17"},{"data_source":"earth_state_tensor.db + prediction_features (resolved earthquake predictions logged 2026-06-01 onward, with the 44 new stacking features present)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["sc_microseism_coherence_index","sc_gnss_coherence_index","sc_cosmic_ray_coherence_index","sc_seismic_coherence_index","sc_mean_coherence_index","sc_min_slope","regional_microseism_amplitude","regional_microseism_amplitude_rel","regional_microseism_z","regional_microseism_coherence","regional_microseism_n_stations","ctd_coherent_transient_mm","ctd_transient_coherence","ctd_transient_snr","ctd_transient_active","ctd_stack_slope"],"git_commit_at_registration":"42570cc363bfe5226ec502a47a9fdf9d959c1ba8","hypothesis_id":"20260601_array_stacking_tensor_features_r_fd3984ed","locked_at":"2026-06-01T00:49:54Z","locked_file_sha256":"c7968974f604e0d2b0bdeb728b60392137b83ecb4eae1a0854e97aef235163dc","notes":"Phase 65w-STACK A-D (committed 2026-06-01). Claim: adding the 44 array-stacking tensor features (26 sc_* per-array coherence index + 9 regional_microseism_* region-local coherent sub-stack + 9 ctd_* coherent-transient/slow-slip) to tensor_eq_per_region raises held-out AUC vs an ablation baseline trained on the IDENTICAL train/test split WITHOUT those 44 features. PASS = mean held-out AUC(with) minus AUC(without) >= 0.005 across trainable regions AND the stacking features carry nonzero aggregate gain. HONEST CAVEATS: (1) features added 2026-06-01, absent from pre-2026-06-01 resolved-prediction snapshots, so the test runs only on predictions logged after that date; (2) at the 8 continental-US anchor sites regional_microseism_* and ctd_* read 0, so signal concentrates where they fire; (3) a NULL (no AUC gain within noise) is an expected, publishable outcome recorded honestly -- this pre-registration exists so the claim cannot be tuned post hoc. Re-eval 2026-06-29.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-06-29","registered_at":"2026-06-01T00:49:29Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"ablation_holdout_auc","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"delta_auc","value":0.005},"title":"Array-stacking tensor features raise per-region EQ classifier held-out AUC","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-06-29"},{"data_source":"earth_state_tensor.db + prediction_features (resolved earthquake predictions logged 2026-06-01 onward, with the 39 satellite-channel features present)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["eco_lst_c","eco_lst_local_anomaly_c","eco_n_passes","eco_covered","eco_data_age_days","eco_data_real","emit_clay_band_depth_2200","emit_carbonate_band_depth_2340","emit_ferric_band_depth_900","emit_ndvi","emit_ch4_enhancement_ppmm","emit_covered","emit_data_age_days","emit_data_real","lts_surface_temp_c","lts_clay_ratio","lts_iron_oxide_ratio","lts_ndvi","lts_swir16_refl","lts_swir22_refl","lts_n_scenes","lts_data_real","swm_landcover_class","swm_is_water","swm_is_bare","swm_data_real","lnm_elevation_m","lnm_slope_mean_deg","lnm_local_relief_m","lnm_roughness_m","lnm_fabric_coherence","lnm_fabric_orientation_deg","lnm_data_real","swot_wse_m","swot_wse_trend_mm_yr","swot_n_passes","swot_covered","swot_data_age_days","swot_data_real"],"git_commit_at_registration":"09b84998619c2cca813739488e92377a5ca79b8b","hypothesis_id":"20260601_satellite_tensor_block_raises_pe_984c1982","locked_at":"2026-06-01T19:05:48Z","locked_file_sha256":"704b125c3b72db1fb2e0c5be4f07ca0d07656bd07bf665429e3bdb8120f99e7b","notes":"Phase 65w-STACK satellite-channel program (committed 2026-06-01, channels lts/swm/lnm/emit/eco/swot). Claim: adding the 39 satellite tensor features (6 channels: ECOSTRESS thermal anomaly, EMIT 285-band mineral band-depths + methane, Landsat thermal/SWIR, ESA WorldCover, Cop-DEM lineament fabric, SWOT water level) to tensor_eq_per_region raises held-out AUC vs an ablation baseline trained on the IDENTICAL train/test split WITHOUT those 39 features. PASS = mean held-out AUC(with) minus AUC(without) >= 0.005 across trainable regions AND the satellite features carry nonzero aggregate gain. HONEST CAVEATS, expected outcome is NULL: (1) the satellite block is RESOURCE-oriented (mineralogy/landcover/water), not an earthquake-precursor block; only eco_ thermal anomaly, lnm_ structural fabric, and lts_ thermal/NDVI vary at land anchors, while emit_/swm_/swot_ read ~0 at the continental EQ anchor sites, so the block is diluted toward zero gain by construction. (2) features added 2026-06-01, absent from earlier resolved-prediction snapshots, so the test runs only on predictions logged after that date. (3) the genuinely EQ-plausible future signal is InSAR LOS deformation, which is NOT in this block yet (v1 atmosphere-dominated, deferred to MintPy v2); this pre-reg is therefore primarily a GUARDRAIL (adding the block must not DEGRADE EQ AUC) plus a discovery channel for any surprise lift from eco_/lnm_. A NULL within noise is the expected, publishable result and this pre-registration exists so the claim cannot be tuned post hoc. Co-evaluates with 20260601_array_stacking_tensor_features_r_fd3984ed. Re-eval 2026-06-29.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-06-29","registered_at":"2026-06-01T19:05:29Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"ablation_holdout_auc","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"delta_auc","value":0.005},"title":"Satellite tensor block raises per-region EQ classifier held-out AUC","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-06-29"},{"data_source":"USGS NURE radiometric (gamma) + EMIT SWIR overtone (su_) + passive-EM SIP (sip_); ground truth = USGS assay backbone (Produced Waters v2.3 + NGDB + WQP)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["pra_nure_k_eu_th_local_anomaly","su_swir_overtone_band_depths_alOH_carbonate_ferric","sip_cole_cole_relaxation"],"git_commit_at_registration":"92ddc99f2e72a0b6a22c39726356ae0c6b0c7cd3","hypothesis_id":"20260616_multi_modal_elemental_resonance__8fdea1d5","locked_at":"2026-06-16T15:05:42Z","locked_file_sha256":"91dc857206adc8a5520a83d867973f957d55bdce9dd550d243956da12c1197ec","notes":"PRE-REGISTERED BEFORE DATA EXISTS (Jun 16 2026). H: a multi-modal elemental/molecular resonance fingerprint (gamma de-excitation lines via NURE K/eU/eTh local anomaly; SWIR molecular-overtone band depths via EMIT Al-OH 2200 / carbonate 2340 / ferric 900; SIP Cole-Cole relaxation) predicts the dominant NON-radioelement assayed commodity (Cu/Au/Li/brine-TDS) at co-located sites, with 5-fold CV macro-AUC beating BOTH the label-shuffle null 95th pct AND the best single channel by >= 0.03 AUC. POSITIVE CONTROL: gamma must predict radioelement (U from eU, K from K pct); if it fails the pipeline is broken, abort. DATA-READINESS WITHDRAW GATE: needs >= 60 sites with an assay within 10 km of >= 2 REAL channels (data_real=1). AT REGISTRATION: assay backbone ABSENT from disk (regeneratable via ingest_geochem_assays scripts); su_ and sip_ return data_real=0 at all Western US test sites (EMIT swath-limited, SIP no co-located passive EM); only gamma broadly real. If after assay rebuild + EMIT densification < 60 qualifying sites, WITHDRAW as underpowered. NULL is publishable. Context: single-channel gamma to commodity is ALREADY proven (NURE K/eU local anomaly r=+0.54 vs federal-lands MMBO, Phase 65y B2). This tests whether multi-modal fusion beats single-channel.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"geochemistry"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-09-16","registered_at":"2026-06-16T15:04:41Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"cv_classification_vs_permutation_null_and_best_single_channel","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"delta_macro_auc_multimodal_minus_best_single_channel","value":0.03},"title":"Multi-modal elemental-resonance fingerprint predicts non-radioelement commodity at assay sites","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"dv/v reference stacks (HVU-PTU + corridor sites); EarthScope EMTF + EMC-CONUS-MT-2019 remote MT; DWMP/artesian-potential scorecards; helium DRI grid","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["ogc_score_structural_trap","ogc_score_deep_water_signal","emt_rho_deep_ohmm","ogr_oil_gas_probability_0_1"],"git_commit_at_registration":"a4f64dcfd3921c6c1a20bf357df4fc7207dcf98a","hypothesis_id":"20260618_faulted_trap_deep_confined_fluid_d3eff985","locked_at":"2026-06-18T00:21:59Z","locked_file_sha256":"14bb499c869da406f914ac793e99aa98398e4fb67dc60fb5441f6099f465d756","notes":"DeepMap pre-registration (USU/UGS well logs). PREDICT: each site hosts a confined fluid column at depth within its faulted graben/basin - WATER at Pahvant/Kingston, HYDROCARBON-bearing at CISCO (Greater Cisco field). EVIDENCE: structural-trap axis 79-88, deep-water signal 69-70; real remote MT corroborates - Pahvant/Kingston conductive deep ~1-2 ohm-m (water), CISCO resistive 190 ohm-m backing out PROBABLE_HC (Archie contrast 9.16). WRONG IF: no confined fluid column at depth (dry/tight, no pressure compartment). CAVEAT: CISCO O&G COMPOSITE low because thermal-maturity axis starved (no well-T); HC-contrast Archie DOES fire but is thermal-gated. USU/UGS adjudicates via induction/laterolog logs, DSTs, pressure data.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"groundwater"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-06-17","registered_at":"2026-06-18T00:21:46Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"usu_ugs_dogm_well_log_validation","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_sites_with_confined_fluid_column_at_depth","value":2.0},"title":"Faulted trap + deep confined fluid column at Kingston Pahvant CISCO (at least 2 of 3)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"dv/v reference stacks (HVU-PTU + corridor sites); EarthScope EMTF + EMC-CONUS-MT-2019 remote MT; DWMP/artesian-potential scorecards; helium DRI grid","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["dvv_deep_band_trend_pct_yr","dvv_deep_band_seasonal_pct","dvv_shallow_band_seasonal_pct"],"git_commit_at_registration":"a4f64dcfd3921c6c1a20bf357df4fc7207dcf98a","hypothesis_id":"20260618_pahvant_deep_water_replenishment_c6033cb7","locked_at":"2026-06-18T00:21:59Z","locked_file_sha256":"f034833362aa4666f996717b4bef68d9c95e2f0bf31817bf0bee351e14f8a86e","notes":"DECISIVE CLAIM. DeepMap pre-registration (USU isotope lab). PREDICT: water chemistry/isotopes show OLD/DEEP signature: tritium dead (<0.8 TU) AND/OR C14 old AND/OR 3He/4He elevated above atmospheric. EVIDENCE: dv/v deep band (0.1-0.5 Hz ~1-3 km) carries -0.199 %/yr trend + 1.16% seasonal swing peaking OCTOBER; shallow band (2-8 Hz) nearly flat (0.10%, peaks April w/ snowmelt) -> deep ~2x trend, ~10x seasonality, out of phase w/ surface snowmelt = lateral/upward pressure transmission, not local infiltration. WRONG IF: tritium >0.8 TU / C14 modern / d18O-d2H matches recent local snowmelt (young meteoric dominates). CAVEAT: dv/v cc moderate 0.66-0.68; mid band no data; robust part is the deep-vs-shallow CONTRAST not absolute magnitude. USU adjudicates via 3He/4He, tritium, d18O/d2H, C14 (helium-survey gas data already exists).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"groundwater"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-06-17","registered_at":"2026-06-18T00:21:46Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"usu_isotope_tritium_he3he4_c14_d18O","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"tritium_TU_of_producible_deep_water","value":0.8},"title":"Pahvant deep-water replenishment is deep (1-3 km) not surface: producible water tritium is dead","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"dv/v reference stacks (HVU-PTU + corridor sites); EarthScope EMTF + EMC-CONUS-MT-2019 remote MT; DWMP/artesian-potential scorecards; helium DRI grid","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["lei_data_real","dwmp_deep_water_score","ape_artesian_potential","emt_rho_deep_ohmm"],"git_commit_at_registration":"a4f64dcfd3921c6c1a20bf357df4fc7207dcf98a","hypothesis_id":"20260618_pahvant_hansel_corridor_hosts_de_5a812e3a","locked_at":"2026-06-18T00:21:59Z","locked_file_sha256":"f5875e43ed514eb719c64da84a282c389e7e1f3ddb8e3237f532741dd61e3616","notes":"DeepMap pre-registration (USU/Stephanie Froham + UGS). PREDICT: a borehole/UGS+DOGM deep-well record in the Hansel-Pahvant corridor encounters a confined aquifer with measurable excess hydraulic head (artesian/sub-artesian) at ~300-1500 m. EVIDENCE: helium DRI grid over faulted graben; flowing-artesian + confined-aquifer signals; new real remote MT shows conductive deep column ~1-2 ohm-m (water-bearing). WRONG IF: well data shows no confined aquifer / no excess head (unconfined hydrostatic only). CAVEAT: deep water likely BRACKISH/SALINE (MT ~1-2 ohm-m), i.e. deep+replenishable but mineralized. USU adjudicates via UGS/DOGM well records + new borehole head.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"groundwater"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-06-17","registered_at":"2026-06-18T00:21:46Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"usu_ugs_well_control_validation","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"confined_aquifer_with_excess_head_present","value":1.0},"title":"Pahvant-Hansel corridor hosts deep confined artesian water (excess head at 300-1500 m)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"helium_iot_poc_witness_rssi + meshtastic_mqtt_rssi","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["regional_rssi_anomaly_stack","relative_humidity_2m","temperature_2m"],"git_commit_at_registration":"709798eb40dcaae54b1884c773b40b125c72bfd4","hypothesis_id":"20260620_mesh_rf_link_rssi_as_a_temperatu_ddf175e3","locked_at":"2026-06-20T17:04:56Z","locked_file_sha256":"36344b6276cb3e280e290c07f84b9f2bccceac9ee4f22b11df29f2e3517b6cec","notes":"Pre-registered 2026-06-20 before forward data exists. CLAIM: in humid-climate regions the temperature-controlled partial correlation between the coherent regional RSSI-anomaly stack (z-score each fixed pair daily RSSI, average across pairs per day) and daily relative humidity is NEGATIVE (humidity up -> whole-mesh RSSI down). CONFIRMATORY CRITERIA on forward data 2026-06-20..2026-09-20 via weekly multi-city HeliumGeek harvest (>=15 humid + >=6 dry-control cities, >=60 daily stack-days/region): (1) median humid-region partial_r(RSSI,humidity|temp) <= -0.20; (2) >=70pct of humid regions individually negative; (3) dry-control median abs(partial_r) < 0.10; (4) cross-network: same sign on independent Meshtastic network; (5) >=1 rain-event response. Distance-split FLAT so coupling is common-mode (mechanism likely receiver-thermal/antenna/ground-moisture not path-loss). Honest NULL publishable. Exploratory basis NOT confirmatory: NYC partial -0.285 Seattle -0.548 at n=8 days Jun 2026.","ots_proof_path":"hypotheses/locked/20260620_mesh_rf_link_rssi_as_a_temperatu_ddf175e3.json.ots","outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"weather_humidity"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-09-20","registered_at":"2026-06-20T17:04:42Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"regional_coherent_stack_partial_correlation_controlling_temperature","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"median_humid_region_partial_r_rssi_humidity_given_temp","value":-0.2},"title":"Mesh RF link RSSI as a temperature-controlled passive humidity sensor","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-09-20"},{"data_source":"through_globe_stack.db GSN/IRIS/GEOSCOPE antipodal ambient-noise interferometry","expected_direction":"two_sided","feature_set":["dt_bcdf_inner_core","pkikp_lag","pkp_lag"],"git_commit_at_registration":"4b8f437f119df8daa7ec446a818d4d2bedca560e","hypothesis_id":"20260623_ambient_noise_inner_core_differe_868fb110","locked_at":"2026-06-23T02:58:53Z","locked_file_sha256":"13d937cee0eb491c3f9b8bb1fed6a01ca6b7a548f0683efd99095e5a3ea3c7bb","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION -- independent ambient-noise test of inner-core differential motion.\n\nBACKGROUND. The inner-core differential-rotation debate (Yang & Song 2023; Vidale; Tkalcic) rests almost entirely on repeating-earthquake DOUBLET PKIKP(df)-PKPbc differential traveltimes, criticised for sparse, uneven, source-mislocation-prone sampling. We test the SAME observable by a fully INDEPENDENT method: ambient-noise interferometry. The through-globe stacker cross-correlates continuous LH? records of antipodal pairs (>150 deg) and accumulates the core-traversing Green's function nightly (SNR ~ sqrt(N_days)).\n\nOBSERVABLE. Per pair, inner_core band (0.02-0.05 Hz): dt_bcdf(day) = |PKP_lag| - |PKIKP_lag|. PKIKP (=PKPdf) measured in +/-30 s of its ak135 surface-to-surface arrival; PKP = earliest outer-core branch (bc ~146-155 deg, ab beyond). PKIKP samples the inner core; PKP samples only the fluid outer core, so the DIFFERENTIAL isolates inner-core change and cancels mantle/source common-mode (incl. seasonal noise-source migration to first order).\n\nREALITY GATE (prerequisite). Only pairs whose cumulative core SNR climbs as sqrt(N) (Pearson r(SNR, sqrt(N_days)) >= 0.6, positive slope) are admitted -- excludes converged station/instrument artifacts.\n\nANALYSIS (locked). Per admitted inner_core pair fit slope_pair = d[dt_bcdf]/dt over the window. Ensemble statistic = median per-pair drift (s/yr) with bootstrap-over-pairs 95% CI. CONTROL: also report the raw (uncontrolled) PKIKP-lag drift; the differential must suppress the common-mode seasonal drift relative to raw for the result to count.\n\nCONFIRMATORY CRITERION (detection). Ensemble median BC-DF drift non-zero at >3 sigma (bootstrap), sign-coherent across a majority of admitted pairs, AND exceeding the raw-PKIKP seasonal-drift floor -> independent ambient-noise detection of inner-core differential motion.\n\nNULL / BOUND (also publishable). Drift consistent with zero -> an independent UPPER BOUND on inner-core differential traveltime change over the 2026-2027 epoch, free of doublet sampling biases. The 2020s are argued to sit near an oscillation turning point (low rate), so a near-zero result is a physically legitimate, expected-plausible outcome, NOT a method failure.\n\nWITHDRAW / UNDERPOWERED. If by month 6 fewer than 5 inner_core pairs pass the reality gate, OR per-pair scatter exceeds resolvable drift (no |drift|<0.2 s/yr detectable), declare UNDERPOWERED and re-register with longer window / larger aperture (station count grown 25->53 on 2026-06-22).\n\nDATA/CODE. Frozen method = scripts/through_globe_stack.py at lock-time commit; observable accrues in data/through_globe_stack.db (antipodal_daily.dt_bcdf), populating per-phase daily lags from 2026-06-22 forward. Re-evaluate 2027-06-22.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"inner_core_differential_motion"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-06-22","registered_at":"2026-06-23T02:58:42Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"bcdf_differential_drift_ensemble","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"two_sided","metric":"ensemble_bcdf_drift_sigma","value":3.0},"title":"Ambient-noise inner-core differential motion via the BC-DF differential of through-globe Green's functions","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-06-22"},{"data_source":"prediction_ledger.db forecast stream + USGS/EMSC/multi-catalog matched M>=5 events + ETAS + per-region base rates","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"7ed4511d41459fa3d5863ab0b66d7c78ed7ef2d4","hypothesis_id":"20260701_dogma_a_operational_eq_forecasts_13b7ef38","locked_at":"2026-07-01T15:07:40Z","locked_file_sha256":"21b435019cd0c855baaa0a5a02e657cedf2abb8eb896ef835edd5a76b0981a65","notes":"DOGMA A -- the consensus that operational earthquake forecasting adds no skill over a random/ETAS/base-rate model. Pre-registered FORWARD HELD-OUT test: DeepMap's operational EQ forecast stream (convergence_gate + tensor_eq_per_region + tensor_eq_global probabilities in the hash-chained ledger) beats BOTH (1) a per-region base-rate Poisson baseline AND (2) a Reasenberg-Jones ETAS baseline, on M>=5.0 events over 2026-07-01..2027-07-01, scored by Brier Skill Score on (region,day) P(M>=5 in next 168h) cells, at BSS>=0.02 vs base rate AND BSS>0 vs ETAS (bootstrap p<0.05; equivalently dAUC>=0.03 vs better baseline). BASE-RATE SKILL CHECK (the crux, added per the Japan M6.0 case): credit is measured RELATIVE to each region's OWN base rate, so a wide-band HIGH watch on a hyperactive region that merely tracks the base rate scores BSS~0 (no skill). Archetype this test adjudicates: the 2026-07-01 M6.0 off Noda, Japan -- caught by a standing M4.5-8.0 HIGH watch that matched 100+ observations that week; it counts as skill ONLY if the forecast probability/timing beat Japan's base rate. PASS = skill over both baselines (dogma broken). NULL = no skill over base rate (landmark null: catches are base-rate scenery). Magnitude specificity (band width) is a SEPARATE test. Scoring code to be built before re-eval; method fully specified; lock + OTS anchor prove the plan predates the forward data. Brand: DeepMap AI Inc.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":5.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-01","registered_at":"2026-07-01T15:07:40Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"archetype":"2026-07-01 M6.0 Noda Japan wide-band HIGH watch matched 100+ obs/week","baseline_1_baserate":"per-region historical M>=Mc rate -> Poisson P(event in horizon) [THE base-rate skill check]","baseline_2_etas":"Reasenberg-Jones ETAS a=-1.67 b=0.91 c=0.05 p=1.08 on live catalog","event_set":"M>=5.0 global bounds-first matched","forecast_horizon_hours":168,"forecast_stream":["convergence_gate","tensor_eq_per_region","tensor_eq_global"],"forward_window":["2026-07-01","2027-07-01"],"magnitude_specificity":"scored separately","null_outcome":"no skill over base rate -> landmark null","pass":"BSS>=0.02 vs baserate AND BSS>0 vs ETAS bootstrap p<0.05 (or dAUC>=0.03)","primary_metric":"Brier Skill Score vs baseline_1 on (region,day) cells","secondary_metric":"ROC-AUC delta vs better baseline"},"method":"forward_held_out_skill_vs_etas_and_baserate","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"brier_skill_score_vs_regional_poisson_baserate","value":0.02},"title":"Dogma A: operational EQ forecasts carry skill over ETAS + regional base-rate baselines (12-month held-out forward test)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-07-01"},{"data_source":"microseism_precursor + convergence_gate + CID tensor channels + USGS/EMSC M>=7 events","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"84e279cb7a5aae80118d169b21f7d7ea1b14d6f8","hypothesis_id":"20260701_dogma_c_a_multi_day_precursor_to_1f92590a","locked_at":"2026-07-01T15:33:40Z","locked_file_sha256":"a2fa3ef7b956403077f1de1bfb228dbeb903fda6aaba53f9699b2953b1b1b8ef","notes":"DOGMA C -- the strong-form unpredictability dogma: that NO passive channel carries pre-rupture information at MULTI-DAY lead before a great earthquake. Pre-registered stacked-epoch FORWARD test: across ALL M>=7.0 events in 2026-07-01..2027-07-01, a LOCKED multi-channel tensor feature (stacked-epoch z of microseism secondary-band precursor + convergence-gate multichannel + CID, in the pre-event T-72h..T0 window) shows a >3sigma pre-event excursion vs a time-shuffled null, AND survives the solar-cycle + seasonal controls that collapsed the +15sigma prompt-gravity headline to +2.6sigma (Apr-25). The honest control is the whole point. PASS = >3sigma survives controls -> a multi-day precursor demonstrably exists (dogma broken). NULL = <=3sigma or collapses -> the definitive multi-day-precursor-impossibility null the field needs (landmark, publishable). Withdraw if <8 M7+ events (underpowered). Companion to Dogma A (event skill) + the microseism 24h shadow notice. Brand: DeepMap AI Inc.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":72.0,"min_magnitude":7.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-01","registered_at":"2026-07-01T15:33:40Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"basis":"Phase-5 microseism +19sigma at -10h + convergence-gate multichannel + CID; solar controls that killed the +15sigma prompt-gravity headline","controls":"solar-cycle (F10.7 quartile match) + seasonal (day-of-year)","event_set":"ALL M>=7.0 global forward, bounds-first","forward_window":["2026-07-01","2027-07-01"],"locked_feature":"stacked-epoch z of {microseism_secondary_band_3s_z, convergence_gate_multichannel, CID} in pre-event T-72h..T0","null":"time-shuffle null on the stacked statistic","null_outcome":"<=3sigma or collapses -> definitive no-multi-day-precursor null","pass":"pre-event stacked z >3sigma AND survives solar+seasonal controls -> multi-day precursor exists (dogma broken)","withdraw":"<8 M7+ events -> underpowered"},"method":"stacked_epoch_M7_multichannel_precursor_forward","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"pre_event_stacked_z_solar_controlled","value":3.0},"title":"Dogma C: a multi-day precursor to a great earthquake exists -- stacked-epoch M7+ forward test with honest solar controls","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-07-01"},{"data_source":"IGETS SG (data/igets_l2.db 16.27M rows / 14 codes / 2008-2025) + GSN broadband (dm_psd_cache 123 stations @ ~20Hz) + public FDSN","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["network_coherent_snr","cygnus_moveout_percentile","best_fit_speed_kms","best_fit_direction_offset_deg","null_A_shuffle_snr","null_B_offaxis_snr","degeneracy_frac_differ","transit_rate_95UL_per_yr"],"git_commit_at_registration":"66b3f0a2dbf4b9818fff078a0610eac1f18d85d0","hypothesis_id":"20260701_mars_8_earth_as_dm_detector_cygn_05bbd9ec","locked_at":"2026-07-01T13:32:42Z","locked_file_sha256":"171f68f8027cbb33579cb194b4761090989345d69a6fe2e77c470b143613e8ce","notes":"MARS-SHOT #8 -- DRAFT PRE-REGISTRATION (NOT YET LOCKED; REQUIRES MIKE SIGN-OFF).\n\nHYPOTHESIS: If macroscopic/composite dark-matter objects (nuclearites, strangelets, primordial-black-hole-scale clumps, Q-balls) transit through or near Earth at galactic velocity, the global network of superconducting gravimeters (IGETS SG) + broadband seismometers (GSN) will record coincident transients whose network arrival-time moveout forms a plane wave at ~230 km/s (+- Maxwell-Boltzmann dispersion sigma_v ~ 156 km/s, v_esc ~ 544 km/s) locked to the CYGNUS direction (the DM wind from the Sun's motion through the halo; solar apex ~ RA 18h Dec +38 / Galactic l=90 b=0). No terrestrial (weather, cultural, quarry, calibration) or astrophysical (teleseism, tide, microseism) source produces a Cygnus-directed ~230 km/s plane-wave moveout, so that geometry separates signal from all systematics.\n\nSIGNAL TEMPLATE: per-station Newtonian tidal-tug (or contact/drag) transient parameterized by (clump mass M, transit speed v, geocentric impact parameter b, arrival direction n_hat). Duration tau ~ b/v; antisymmetric pass-by shape. Absolute amplitude calibration (nGal per kg per km) derived in scripts/dm_moveout_search.py + Week-1 report; NOT asserted in the pre-reg to avoid a stale sensitivity claim.\n\nDETECTION STATISTIC: network-coherent SNR = sum_i w_i * mf_i(t_i(n_hat,v)) / sqrt(sum_i w_i^2), where mf_i is the matched-filter output at station i and t_i is the predicted moveout arrival. MAXIMIZED over the galactic speed window and a cone about the Cygnus-away propagation vector.\n\nPARAMETER GRID (LOCKED at lock-time; see test-extra JSON): mass window 1e6..1e15 kg (7 log bins); speed window v in [V_LSR - 2 sigma_v, V_LSR + 2 sigma_v] = [-82..542] clipped to [1, 542] km/s (9 bins); impact parameter b in {inside-Earth chord, 0.5 R_E, 1 R_E, 3 R_E}; direction cone half-angle 30 deg about the per-epoch Cygnus-away vector, 24 trial directions.\n\nDETECTION THRESHOLD (LOCKED): a candidate is a DM-transit CANDIDATE iff (1) network-coherent SNR >= 5.0 at its best-fit (n_hat, v); AND (2) best-fit direction within the Cygnus cone (30 deg) with on_cyg_percentile >= 0.9 vs the off-Cygnus full-sphere distribution; AND (3) best-fit speed within the galactic MB window. A single-station excess is explicitly NOT a candidate.\n\nTWO NULLS (both required): NULL A time-shuffle -- independently circular-shift each station MF stream, rebuild the statistic at Cygnus, repeat N=100+ -> background SNR distribution. NULL B direction-rotate -- with real data, cone-maximize the statistic on off-Cygnus axes over the full sphere (excluding a 30 deg Cygnus cone) and rank the (equally cone-maximized) on-Cygnus statistic against that distribution; a real signal peaks ONLY at Cygnus (percentile ~1), a coherent systematic peaks elsewhere. FAIR COMPARISON: on-Cygnus is cone-maximized identically to off-Cygnus (no look-elsewhere asymmetry).\n\nDEGENERACY GUARD (Apr-28 lesson): before trusting either null, verify frac_shuffles_differ >= 0.5 (the shuffle actually changes the statistic). If the null is degenerate, report a Poisson-only UL and FLAG it; do NOT report a shuffle-derived uncertainty. This directly heeds the April 2026 transit-DM bound audit where 88 percent of snapshots tripped stage-1 coincidence making the shuffle a no-op.\n\nEXCLUSION COMPUTATION: null-subtracted Helene-style 95 percent UL on transit RATE (events/yr), identical math to scripts/compute_null_subtracted_bounds.py: s_hat = n_real_candidates - mean(n_null_candidates); sigma_s = sqrt(n_real + n_null_mean); s95 = max(0, s_hat) + 1.96 sigma_s; rate_95 = s95 / span_yr. The Cygnus-direction discriminant is folded into what counts as a candidate, so this is a DIRECTION-RESOLVED companion bound to the existing PBH <=8.4/yr and strangelet <=10.8/yr bounds.\n\nSENSITIVITY WINDOW (honest): SG + broadband seismometer network probes MACROSCOPIC / COMPOSITE DM with GRAVITATIONAL or CONTACT coupling -- NOT WIMPs (which need underground cryogenic detectors). SG noise floor ~1 nGal = 1e-11 m/s^2 over minutes (slow, large-M end); broadband ~1e-9 m/s^2 over seconds (fast, small-b end). Moveout directional power scales with delay-to-noise ratio: at 230 km/s the max inter-station delay across an Earth-radius aperture is only ~28 s, so directional discrimination is STRONGEST for sharp fast transients (GSN broadband) and weakest for slow SG minute-cadence pulses. This is a scaffold finding to be carried into the mass/coupling reach table.\n\nMOST LIKELY OUTCOME: a world-leading direction-resolved EXCLUSION on the macroscopic-DM transit rate in the probed mass/coupling window; small chance of a Cygnus-locked candidate demanding blind independent follow-up before any claim.\n\nDATA: IGETS SG data/igets_l2.db = 16.27M gravity-residual rows across 14 station-codes, 2008-2025 (CO/ST 17-yr span; ~10 stations 2008-2010 dense; cadence 60-326 s). GSN broadband dm_psd_cache station_meta = 123 stations @ ~20 Hz, extensible via public FDSN. CAVEAT: several IGETS 2-letter L2 codes are ambiguous (e.g. ST = Strasbourg OR Sutherland) and MUST be reconciled against data/igets/<Station>/*.ggp headers before the real scan.\n\nBRAND: DeepMap AI Inc. only. Extends scripts/compute_null_subtracted_bounds.py + scripts/dm_directional_search.py + reports/moonshots_retro/ (does not reinvent the bound math). Real scan gated behind DEEPMAP_DM_MOVEOUT_PREREG_LOCKED=1, set ONLY after this pre-reg is reviewed by Mike, locked, and Bitcoin-anchored.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"dark_matter_transit_exclusion"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-12-23","registered_at":"2026-07-01T04:49:28Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"bound_formula":"helene_null_subtracted_95_UL","bound_z":1.96,"cone_half_angle_deg":30.0,"cygnus_apex_dec_deg":38.0,"cygnus_apex_ra_deg":270.0,"cygnus_galactic_l_b_deg":[90.0,0.0],"degeneracy_frac_differ_min":0.5,"gsn_psd_cache_db":"data/dm_psd_cache.db","igets_l2_db":"data/igets_l2.db","impact_param_R_earth":[0.0,0.5,1.0,3.0],"mass_kg_window":[1000000.0,1000000000000000.0],"n_cone_directions":24,"n_mass_bins":7,"n_speed_bins":9,"network_coherent_snr_threshold":5.0,"null_A_time_shuffle_n":100,"null_B_exclude_cone_deg":30.0,"null_B_off_axis_n_dir":200,"on_cyg_percentile_threshold":0.9,"real_scan_gate_env":"DEEPMAP_DM_MOVEOUT_PREREG_LOCKED","scaffold_script":"scripts/dm_moveout_search.py","sigma_v_kms":156.0,"speed_kms_window":[1.0,542.0],"v_esc_kms":544.0,"v_lsr_kms":230.0},"method":"network_coherent_cygnus_moveout_matched_filter","n_permutations":100},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"network_coherent_snr_at_cygnus","value":5.0},"title":"MARS-8 Earth-as-DM-detector: Cygnus-moveout macroscopic-dark-matter transit search (SG + GSN network)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"microseism_precursor_tensor_monitor z per region + USGS/EMSC M>=5.5 events + regional 36h base rates","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"f5055b211d75cfbac31ae13521f627de10a3fe6c","hypothesis_id":"20260701_microseism_10h_precursor_as_a_sh_47d7b6f5","locked_at":"2026-07-01T15:25:34Z","locked_file_sha256":"5644241fadb2e4a89f6d434125ddb07def004c9f69098f5048bf7c95c37973af","notes":"MICROSEISM -10h -> 24h SHADOW NOTICE. Operationalize the Phase-5 universal-precursor finding (microseism secondary-band 3s +19sigma at lag -10h for M5.5+, survives solar-cycle control) into a per-event 24-36h EQ notice, run in SHADOW (no user-facing alerts) until calibrated. A shadow predictor fires a 24h notice when the per-region microseism precursor z crosses a locked threshold; each notice is scored forward for whether an M>=5.5 follows within 36h (precision) and whether that beats the regional 36h base rate (lift). PASS = precision>=0.15 AND lift>=2x over base rate (bootstrap p<0.05) -> a real short-lead notice for the SUBSET of events the precursor precedes. NULL = no lift -> the stacked-epoch -10h signal does NOT transfer into a reliable per-event alarm (honest, publishable). This is the 24h rung of the graded 30d->7d->36h->24h cascade: the long rungs are always-on regional windows; this short rung fires only when the precursor activates (LOW coverage, HIGH value). Shadow-only; promote to live alerts ONLY after calibration + a passing forward result. Withdraw if <10 notices over the window (underpowered -> re-register looser). Brand: DeepMap AI Inc.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":36.0,"min_magnitude":5.5,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-01-01","registered_at":"2026-07-01T15:25:33Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"regional 36h base rate of M>=5.5","basis":"Phase-5 microseism secondary-band 3s +19sigma at lag -10h for M5.5+ (solar-cycle-controlled)","cascade_rung":"24-36h (short rung of 30d/7d/36h/24h; fires only on precursor activation)","event_set":"M>=5.5 within 36h of a shadow notice, bounds-first","forward_window":["2026-07-01","2027-01-01"],"mode":"SHADOW: logs to advisories/shadow table NOT the scored ledger; no user-facing alerts until calibrated","notice_window_hours":36,"null_outcome":"no lift -> -10h stacked-epoch signal does not transfer to a per-event notice","pass":"precision>=0.15 AND hit-rate-lift over regional 36h base rate >=2x, bootstrap p<0.05","trigger":"per-region microseism precursor z (microseism_secondary_band_3s_z) crossing a locked threshold","withdraw":"<10 shadow notices -> underpowered"},"method":"shadow_microseism_precursor_24h_notice_skill","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"notice_precision_and_lift_over_baserate","value":0.15},"title":"Microseism -10h precursor as a SHADOW 24-36h EQ notice: skill over base rate (forward held-out)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"gas-sample isotope lab (3He/4He, C1-C4 d13C, clumped 13CH3D/12CH2D2) + abiogenic_hc_discovery_monitor screen","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["ahc_composite_score","ahc_he3_he4_ra","ahc_score_serpentinization"],"git_commit_at_registration":"794be60d23c99fc4322e9202fafabb7c84de3636","hypothesis_id":"20260703_abiogenic_hc_multi_tracer_conver_97b00a36","locked_at":"2026-07-03T18:47:48Z","locked_file_sha256":"e2ad8f42edcedc073a0e5bb74954a4d6934986b8ec691cbeaab1b7180837a764","notes":"PRE-REGISTERED CANDIDATE SET (ranked by literature 3He/4He R/Ra, the mantle-source tracer), locked BEFORE any new gas sampling so that any future sampling (by us or in the literature) is a blind forward test of the screen: (1) Chimaera Eternal Flames, Turkey R/Ra 5.1 -- STANDOUT: onshore, actively venting CH4, serpentinite-hosted, samplable; (2) Lost City Hydrothermal Field R/Ra 7.8 (offshore type site); (3) Black Rock Volcanic Field, Millard County UT R/Ra 5.8 (local, Basin-and-Range); (4) Salton Sea Geothermal CA R/Ra 6.2; (5) Dixie Valley NV R/Ra 5.4. HONEST FRAMING: R/Ra is already known (necessary, NOT sufficient -- a mantle plume like Yellowstone R/Ra 16 has high He but no HC), so it is not the forward prediction. The genuine forward test is the markers NOT yet measured at these specific sites: PASS = at >=3 of the 5 sites, sampled gas shows >=2 of {d13C isotopic reversal (C1 heavier than C2), clumped-isotope apparent formation T > 150 C, serpentinization H2 co-occurrence with no hopane/sterane biomarkers}. The strongest discriminating variant: HC found where NO biogenic source rock exists. WITHDRAW if no gas-sample isotope data at >=3 sites by re-eval date. Screen: cross_physics/abiogenic_hc_discovery_monitor + abiogenic_replenishment.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"abiogenic_hydrocarbon"},"reevaluate_at":"2028-07-04","registered_at":"2026-07-03T18:47:29Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"multi_tracer_convergence","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_sites_with_>=2_abiogenic_markers","value":3.0},"title":"Abiogenic-HC multi-tracer convergence at five high-R/Ra serpentinization-context sites","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"data/dvv_reference.db (28.2M dv/v measurements, 2015-present, 12405 UU pairs) + Utah FORGE public injection schedule (utahforge.com / DOE GDR)","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["dvv_pct_milford_stack"],"git_commit_at_registration":"931634c5df80d55d2810ffb3f5e276e6d20435b4","hypothesis_id":"20260712_passive_dv_v_detects_effective_s_7e043492","locked_at":"2026-07-12T21:20:05Z","locked_file_sha256":"27585e75c158abe395d93a655fa29e1d812e4e0fef65f8374faed59ea6df296d","notes":"SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE: first invention through the test-before-file loop. Expired US6977866B2 (ConocoPhillips, Huffman et al) velocity-to-effective-stress transform, surfaced+deep-read by the Invention Springboard Miner 2026-07-12; proposed combination = drive the Bowers/Eaton velocity-effective-stress relation with passive ambient-noise dv/v for 4D pore-pressure monitoring with no active source and no wells. CLAIM: during documented Utah FORGE injection/circulation episodes (2024-04-03..2024-04-27 commercial stimulation + 9h circulation; 2024-07-15..2024-09-15 30-day circulation + extended tests; and any future documented episode), stacked ambient-noise dv/v across Milford-area station pairs DECREASES below the pre-episode baseline (velocity drop = effective-stress decrease as injected fluid raises pore pressure), with injection-window stacked z <= -2.0, while matched same-length control windows outside episodes trigger at <20 pct. PASS: >=1 covered episode meets z<=-2.0 AND control trigger rate <20 pct. FAIL: covered episodes but no z<=-2.0, or controls trigger >=20 pct (signal indistinguishable from background). WITHDRAW GATES (coverage, decided by the runner before any outcome stat is read): (a) an episode is testable only with >=5 Milford-area pairs and >=60 pct of episode+baseline days having a stacked value; (b) if NO documented episode is covered, hypothesis converts to PROSPECTIVE for the next announced FORGE episode instead of being scored. Confounders acknowledged: seasonal/hydrologic dv/v variation (why matched controls are required); dv/v shallow sensitivity vs reservoir depth ~2.5 km is the honest physics risk -- a null is publishable. Runner: scripts/flagship_dvv_forge_pressure_test.py. Test-then-file: a provisional is drafted ONLY if this passes. Re-eval 2026-10-12.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"pore_pressure_change"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-12","registered_at":"2026-07-12T21:19:50Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"stacked_dvv_z_vs_baseline_and_matched_controls","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"injection_window_stacked_z","value":-2.0},"title":"Passive dv/v detects effective-stress (pore-pressure) change at Utah FORGE injection episodes (springboard US6977866B2)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-10-12"},{"data_source":"Continuous 3C broadband/short-period waveforms from ≥3 (ideally dozens of) stations over the target (already in FDSN/DeepMap); a 3D velocity model (DeepMap has/derives one); solid-Earth tide + barometric loading time series (computable from platform inputs); regional σ1 azimuth from focal mechanisms/World Stress Map; and for co-inversion, ambient-noise dv/v (already a DeepMap product). All passive","expected_direction":"","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"27c31a902e32b849a210a59c52e1bff84b9dcdb7","hypothesis_id":"20260712_springboard_test_us7127353b2_met_90aefeea","locked_at":"2026-07-12T22:59:30Z","locked_file_sha256":"5c395ecd4fd00d46046601f4669b063b385b15a91332d1970cd0948a0f9c9f1f","notes":"SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE (invention loop). Brief-derived hypothesis approved by Mike. CLAIM: In a reservoir/fracture volume under measurable cyclic loading, the SET coherence (semblance) energy of critically-stressed fracture fairways — those oriented within ±45° of the maximum horizontal compressive stress — will rise and fall in phase with the solid-Earth-tide + barometric stress cycle, with a phase lag and amplitude that predict the fairway's hydraulic linkage, such that fairways showing tidally-modulated emission also show the largest co-located dv/v decrease during the same stress phase. TEST: Retrospective, blind-window design on one instrumented target: (1) compute per-voxel SET semblance in 10 s stacks over ≥60 days; (2) independently model the tidal+barometric stress time series and the σ1 azimuth (from focal mechanisms / stress-map database); (3) pre-register which voxel fairways are 'critically stressed' (within ±45° of σ1) BEFORE looking at their emission phase; (4) test whether emission energy of the pre-registered fairways is significantly phase-coherent with the stress cycle (Rayleigh/phase-stacking test) versus non-aligned control fairways; (5) test whether the same voxels show correlated dv/v change. Pass = phase coherence significant only in the critically-stressed set and dv/v correlation present. PASS: Critically-stressed (±45° of σ1) fairway voxels show tidal-phase emission coherence at p<0.01 (Rayleigh) with resultant vector length R>0.2, while σ1-misaligned control voxels do not (their R indistinguishable from noise); AND ≥60% of the tidally-modulated fairway voxels show a co-located dv/v decrease during the peak-stress phase exceeding the 2σ background dv/v fluctuation. Failure = no phase preference, or equal coherence in aligned and misaligned sets. DATA: Continuous 3C broadband/short-period waveforms from ≥3 (ideally dozens of) stations over the target (already in FDSN/DeepMap); a 3D velocity model (DeepMap has/derives one); solid-Earth tide + barometric loading time series (computable from platform inputs); regional σ1 azimuth from focal mechanisms/World Stress Map; and for co-inversion, ambient-noise dv/v (already a DeepMap product). All passively available — no new field deployment for the initial test.  (already collected: YES). Test-before-file: provisional drafted only on pass.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-12","registered_at":"2026-07-12T22:59:30Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"springboard_hypothesis_test","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"","metric":"","value":null},"title":"Springboard test: US7127353B2 - Method and apparatus for imaging permeability pathways of geologic fluid reservoirs using seismic emission tomography","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"Already collected: continuous 3C FDSN waveforms, DeepMap 3D velocity model, and live dv/v ambient-noise fields are all in the Earth State Tensor. External-but-free: a published reviewed earthquake catalog for the same region/period for ground truth. Nothing new needs to be deployed.  (already collected: YES)","expected_direction":"","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"27c31a902e32b849a210a59c52e1bff84b9dcdb7","hypothesis_id":"20260712_springboard_test_us7391675b2_mic_f603e70e","locked_at":"2026-07-12T22:59:30Z","locked_file_sha256":"924679cb14f827722d66a386817aed092d338d1345ef67c19bbee6ad3232225f","notes":"SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE (invention loop). Brief-derived hypothesis approved by Mike. CLAIM: Adaptive-Tc continuous coalescence migration over an existing sparse regional FDSN array will automatically detect and locate microseismic events at least 0.3 magnitude units below the network's published catalog magnitude-of-completeness, with median epicentral location error ≤ 2 km versus the catalog, with zero human picking. TEST: Pick a region and a 30-day window for which a high-quality reviewed catalog exists (e.g. USGS/regional network). Run the coalescence migration on the raw continuous 3C waveforms for that window blind to the catalog. Compare auto-declared events to the catalog: match by ≤10 s origin-time and ≤5 km distance. Metrics: (a) fraction of catalog events recovered vs magnitude; (b) number of confidently declared events BELOW Mc and their independent corroboration (waveform stacking, template matching); (c) median location error of matched events; (d) false-alarm rate against quiet control periods. Ablation: fixed-Tc vs adaptive-Tc(dv/v) to isolate the novel contribution. PASS: Pass if ≥1 event is confidently declared and independently corroborated at ≥0.3 Mu below Mc AND matched-event median location error ≤2 km AND adaptive-Tc ablation shows ≥15% more sub-Mc detections than fixed-Tc at equal false-alarm rate. Fail otherwise. DATA: Already collected: continuous 3C FDSN waveforms, DeepMap 3D velocity model, and live dv/v ambient-noise fields are all in the Earth State Tensor. External-but-free: a published reviewed earthquake catalog for the same region/period for ground truth. Nothing new needs to be deployed.  (already collected: YES). Test-before-file: provisional drafted only on pass.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-12","registered_at":"2026-07-12T22:59:30Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"springboard_hypothesis_test","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"","metric":"","value":null},"title":"Springboard test: US7391675B2 - Microseismic event detection and location by continuous map migration","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"SHADOW record data/imminent_shadow.jsonl (private test phase) scored via scripts/imminent_convergence_predictor.py --evaluate against public USGS FDSN (bbox containment + magnitude gate, 0.5 tolerance)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["n_converged_models","cross_model_corroboration"],"git_commit_at_registration":"6e09b4471e4a5f37cb5a086d7b66b5575dce0d4d","hypothesis_id":"20260712_v2_imminent_convergence_72h_shad_a3f748c7","locked_at":"2026-07-12T00:18:39Z","locked_file_sha256":"a062f8691ca5028cc392079052c61c00f35354ec9576228ad56d72be054a01e9","notes":"v2 of the imminent-convergence 72h forward test (v1 4ec47bcd withdrawn pre-launch, zero data: Mike directed SHADOW-mode testing before public exposure). Trigger rule unchanged: >=4 DISTINCT models holding active in-window HIGH/CRITICAL EQ forecasts on the same region simultaneously -> ONE 72h shadow record per region per episode (data/imminent_shadow.jsonl, private, email-to-Mike only). PASS: --evaluate resolved hit rate >= 70% at n >= 30 expired shadow windows over the first 90 days. Evaluator is reproducible from the shadow record + public USGS by construction; validated both directions Jul 12 (samoa test window recovers the real M5.1; quiet ukraine window scores miss). Backtest basis (60d, dedup region+day): 77.8% hit-within-72h at 1.4 triggers/day; the >=3+CRITICAL alternative measured ANTI-selective (62.1%) and was dropped pre-launch. UNDERPOWERED if n < 30 by re-eval: extend 90 more days rather than judge early. PROMOTION on PASS: flip _SHADOW_MODE=False so the identical trigger logs scored public ledger predictions. Re-eval 2026-10-11.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":72.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-10","registered_at":"2026-07-12T00:18:38Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"resolved_hit_rate","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"resolved_hit_rate_pct","value":70.0},"title":"v2 imminent_convergence_72h SHADOW forward test: >=70% hit rate","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-10-11"},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI (NOAA Open Data/AWS) + GRACE-FO GWSA + platform dv/v & tidal-compliance + Open-Meteo airmass covariates + 3DEP terrain","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"c121f12e5de264bd25b3b88aa50d8e13c544a9c7","hypothesis_id":"20260713_deep_water_fault_venting_at_pine_63364a5e","locked_at":"2026-07-13T17:12:53Z","locked_file_sha256":"e806485f5294a145bb5678f0568b43573aa222af4183b75cf9a8753d25102e87","notes":"Primary pre-registered test on Pine Valley ONLY (one clean hypothesis). Killer discriminant = H3 tidal: the atmosphere has no lunar M2, a tidally-pumped fault vent does; M2(12.42h) must be separated from solar S2(12.00h) via the multi-year record. Orographic null controlled with 3 matched Colorado Plateau laccoliths (same intrusive-mountain physics). Verdict: CONFIRMED if H3 + (H1 or H2); SUPPORTIVE if H1+H2 only; NULL if H1 fails. Confirmatory-on-archive (see framing in test.extra). Atlas-wide scan is a SEPARATE follow-on pre-registration. Motivated by the deep-water-through-faults literature (Tyne 2025 Palouse, Sano 2025 Noto pre-M7.6 He shift, Warr 2022, Hallis 2015) + Pine Valley artesian pressurizing through 20yr drought.","ots_proof_path":"hypotheses/locked/20260713_deep_water_fault_venting_at_pine_63364a5e.json.ots","outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"deep_water_venting"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-13T17:12:36Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{"atlas_followon":"After the Pine Valley verdict is recorded, apply the IDENTICAL locked method to the full replenishable atlas (including the 3 Great Salt Lake cloud-forming spots Mike flagged in the 2018 radar time-lapse) as a SEPARATE pre-registered test.","cloud_index":"GOES-West ABI cloud-formation index over each box: cold-cloud-top frequency (band 13 BT < threshold) + cloud fraction + WV (bands 8/9/10); hourly, ~2km. GOES-17 2018-2022, GOES-18 2023-present (NOAA Open Data/AWS).","controls":{"airmass_covariates":["upstream 700mb humidity","precipitable water (PWAT)","CAPE","box elevation (3DEP)","wind direction/speed"],"flat_terrain_control":{"lat":37.85,"lon":-113.55,"name":"Escalante Desert flat"},"orographic_laccolith_controls":[{"lat":38.1,"lon":-110.8,"name":"Henry Mountains"},{"lat":38.45,"lon":-109.25,"name":"La Sal Mountains"},{"lat":37.85,"lon":-109.47,"name":"Abajo Mountains"}],"tidal_null":"phase-randomized / AR-surrogate, 1000 draws"},"framing":"CONFIRMATORY on the existing 2018-2025 GOES archive. Pre-registration LOCKS the cloud metric, control set, period, tidal criterion, and PASS thresholds BEFORE any frame is pulled, to prevent metric/control/period selection bias (p-hacking). It does NOT establish blindness to the data -- the archive exists at lock time.","period":"2018-06-01..2025-09-30. Spatial tests on summer JJA; tidal spectral on full-year multi-year series.","primary_target":{"box_deg":0.25,"context":"artesian, 93pct pressurized, -17.68 mGal gravity low, pressurizing through 20yr drought (platform deep-water investigation)","lat":37.2,"lon":-113.5,"name":"Pine Valley Mountain / Hurricane Fault pressurized segment (Target A)"},"tests":{"H1_spatial":{"desc":"fault-box cloud-index excess vs mean of the 3 laccolith controls, AFTER regressing out box elevation + regional airmass","pass":"permutation p<0.05 AND positive effect direction"},"H2_moisture_source_not_ocean":{"desc":"on low-advected-moisture days (regional PWAT < 25th pctile / offshore flow), fault box stays elevated while controls stay clear","pass":"fault-vs-control cloud-index difference significant + positive on dry days"},"H3_tidal_KILLER":{"desc":"lunar M2 (12.42h) and/or fortnightly Mf (13.66d) spectral peak in the fault-box cloud index, SEPARATED from the solar thermal tide S2 (12.00h) using the >=7yr record; absent/weaker in orographic controls","pass":"M2 or Mf peak p<0.01 vs surrogate null AND fault > controls by preset margin"},"H4_20yr_loading":{"desc":"multi-year cloud anomaly vs GRACE-FO GWSA + platform artesian/dv/v signal, controlling ENSO/PDO + regional precipitation (the through-drought test)","pass":"partial correlation significant + positive; SECONDARY (GRACE is basin-scale ~300km, context not fault-localized proof)"}},"verdict_rule":{"CONFIRMED":"H3 (tidal) PASSES AND (H1 or H2 PASSES)","NULL":"H1 fails (fault clouds indistinguishable from orographic laccolith controls)","SUPPORTIVE":"H1 and H2 pass but H3 fails (localized anomalous clouds, no tidal signature)"},"withdraw_gate":"if GOES valid-frame coverage over the fault box <60pct OR <2 control boxes have comparable coverage -> underpowered, re-register with adjusted boxes"},"method":"cloud_formation_tidal_crosscorrelation","n_permutations":1000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"H3_tidal_M2_or_Mf_peak_p","value":0.01},"title":"Deep-water fault venting at Pine Valley: anomalous tidally-modulated cloud formation over the Hurricane Fault pressurized segment","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"FDSN continuous vertical-component broadband noise; 2 teleseismic dense clusters (60-90 deg), 1-3 yr; earthquake catalog for ground-truth traveltimes","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["tgb_pkikp_resid_s","tgb_corephase_resid_s","tgb_slowness_class_accuracy","tgb_bc_df_s"],"git_commit_at_registration":"271cd1261d8889acfb7d9f15cace8f2a2d2f3013","hypothesis_id":"20260714_passive_deep_earth_body_wave_ret_92167244","locked_at":"2026-07-14T20:12:55Z","locked_file_sha256":"f5ec2eec70af05c1975227f929ab4e0f0af6bd444ac543891044a225f73b2cce","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION (Springboard #384, HAL-tel-01927711v1, ISTerre Campillo/Boue/Roux lineage). CONFIRMATORY, not blind: the continuous noise exists in FDSN archives DeepMap already ingests, but this double-array slowness analysis has never been run before this lock. HYPOTHESIS: using two teleseismically-separated (60-90 deg) dense station clusters already in DeepMap, (a) stable teleseismic P plus >=1 core phase (PcP or PKP) is retrievable from >=12 months of statistics-weighted ambient-noise cross-correlation across >=30 cross-cluster station pairs, recovered within +/-2 s of the ak135-predicted traveltime on >=50% of pairs; AND (b) >=80% of spurious/early arrivals are correctly classified as source-artifacts vs structurally-real phases by their slowness signature in the double-array Radon (tau-p) domain, validated against earthquake-derived P/PcP/PKP traveltimes through the same clusters as ground truth. PASS = BOTH (a) >=50% pairs within +/-2s AND (b) >=80% real-vs-spurious classification accuracy. NULL (a real, publishable constraint) otherwise. WITHDRAW/underpowered = fewer than 30 cross-cluster pairs converge to a stable body-wave arrival, or the body-wave noise fraction is too low to stack over the window. NOVELTY/FTO: pure deep-phase-from-noise is NOT novel (Boue, Poli, Nishida, Lin, Campillo); the claimable core is the automated slowness-based real-vs-artifact classifier + continuous temporal-change monitoring + Earth-State-Tensor fusion + proof-of-when. Run FTO against Poli/Campillo/Nishida before any filing. This test also hardens the existing inner-core rotation pre-registration by supplying the artifact-rejection layer that distinguishes a genuine BC-DF core signal from seasonal microseism-source migration.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-12","registered_at":"2026-07-14T20:12:55Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"double-array Radon tau-p noise-correlation body-wave extraction + ak135 slowness real-vs-spurious classifier","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"real_vs_spurious_classification_accuracy","value":0.8},"title":"Passive deep-Earth body-wave retrieval with double-array slowness artifact rejection","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES ABI-L2-ACMC cloud (2 new east-fault boxes, built post-lock) + Open-Meteo pressure","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["disentangle_excess_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"5b3020863a1f1c7c87edc8f8815c93744136e630","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_barometric_disentang_bed7b5e8","locked_at":"2026-07-14T23:59:51Z","locked_file_sha256":"5b635ef8df5ce645a18f1ad87c941afa462290af5b07a6019e1abd6567825367","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION -- GENUINELY BLIND: the two east-fault boxes' (Moab 38.57/-109.55, Lisbon Valley 38.15/-109.30) barometric response has NEVER been measured; their GOES cloud series is built AFTER this lock. Follows the #2 barometric PASS whose west/east confound (escalante flat WEST control tied the fault) leaves fault-venting unproven. TEST: are EAST faults significantly more barometrically sensitive than EAST laccolith non-faults (same region, no west/east alias)? PASS (fault-venting CONFIRMED) = excess = mean(east-fault beta) - mean(east-nonfault beta) < 0 AND block-bootstrap p<=0.05. NULL = the #2 barometric PASS is a west/east REGIONAL confound and fault-specific venting is DISCONFIRMED. The west side already shows no fault effect, so a real venting mechanism must make the east faults stand out. Script sha256: bebcc281a57efee367c2097f16c1f8d7ef90d08c39dd0a3cfdf1731bd8bf226c.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T23:59:51Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"east-fault (Moab, Lisbon) barometric beta vs east-laccolith beta; block-bootstrap of the mean difference","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"disentangle_excess_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley barometric disentangle: east faults vs east non-faults (fault-venting vs regional confound)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2017-2025 + Open-Meteo/USGS forcing","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["barometric_excess_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"aba6cf27323e8dfd3e1bf1bd60be278881a7611b","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_barometric_pumping_c_5d6c8b00","locked_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","locked_file_sha256":"f8a9f795fa2901dd112a3db0183b1b6a72412059f238dad76a3c4c330aac7b4f","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = excess (fault beta - mean control beta) < 0 AND block-bootstrap p<=0.05. Low pressure eases fault confinement -> extra venting; discriminator is the fault's EXCESS negative pressure sensitivity beyond the shared weather effect. Script sha256: b4659bfa9067b6f7fb7db8a6bac93f6987e00683bd4f94ed5c21af555be1da79. Part of the Pine Valley release-mechanism series following the M2 null (20260714 ...b26f1d93). NULL is a real, publishable constraint.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"partial regression of cloud residual on pressure residual per box; block-bootstrap of fault-minus-mean-control excess","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"barometric_excess_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley barometric-pumping cloud response (fault exceeds controls)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2017-2025 + Open-Meteo/USGS forcing","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["fault_spring_neap_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"aba6cf27323e8dfd3e1bf1bd60be278881a7611b","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_fortnightly_spring_n_b97d3ad8","locked_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","locked_file_sha256":"a6c515918bcbf5d4e5b5cda847181be92212f257e7cd7a9bb77ce2b7fb7fdc89","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault spring-neap p<=0.05 AND fault spring-neap snr > max control snr. Resolves the M2 null: a threshold-triggered fault release responds at the spring-neap ENVELOPE, not the M2 carrier, so a clean M2 null can coexist with a real fortnightly signal. Script sha256: b5531f369393f36898295aef4b159e657b73db39e37b7047f6a8de448eb5a7eb. Part of the Pine Valley release-mechanism series following the M2 null (20260714 ...b26f1d93). NULL is a real, publishable constraint.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"LS spring-neap (14.7653d) + Mf (13.6608d) candidate line vs local null grid; fault-exceeds-controls","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"fault_spring_neap_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley fortnightly/spring-neap cloud modulation (threshold-tidal fault venting)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2017-2025 + Open-Meteo/USGS forcing","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["seasonal_lagged_excess_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"aba6cf27323e8dfd3e1bf1bd60be278881a7611b","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_seasonal_hydrologic__e82c2420","locked_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","locked_file_sha256":"67db91f0611d86610039730cfcb1ffd6f4fab31474a7bf3c4eb290c8c936024f","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault peak-lagcorr > every control AND phase-randomised p<=0.05. Interannual loading anomaly -> lagged venting anomaly, fault-attributable. WEAKEST of the four (snow_depth is a loading proxy, broad lag band) -- a null here is weaker evidence than #1/#2/#4. Script sha256: c5359b30ab170ca229d73615e7eae0e332ea0357da6d24cfb781adc8df42078f. Part of the Pine Valley release-mechanism series following the M2 null (20260714 ...b26f1d93). NULL is a real, publishable constraint.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"peak lagged (7-84d) cross-correlation of cloud anomaly vs regional snow-load anomaly per box; phase-randomised null","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"seasonal_lagged_excess_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley seasonal hydrologic-loading lagged venting (fault exceeds controls)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2017-2025 + Open-Meteo/USGS forcing","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["seismic_postevent_excess_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"aba6cf27323e8dfd3e1bf1bd60be278881a7611b","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_seismic_dynamic_trig_300290ad","locked_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","locked_file_sha256":"e5fa0a35b8d0d9a0f14cf6ec64adbab274377d366981c72b912adcecc20fc4e5","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault post-event (0-3d) minus pre-event (-7..-1d) excess p<=0.05 AND fault excess > max control excess. Earthquakes transiently boost fault permeability -> a venting burst. Script sha256: 106eb239488fda034ef01db70f7d1b4a0dff032dfd5ea04e31a869395048c810. Part of the Pine Valley release-mechanism series following the M2 null (20260714 ...b26f1d93). NULL is a real, publishable constraint.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"superposed-epoch post-minus-pre cloud residual around local M>=2.5 + teleseismic M>=6.5 events; event-time-shuffle null","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"seismic_postevent_excess_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley seismic dynamic-triggering venting burst (superposed-epoch, fault exceeds controls)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"regional_microseism_stack_monitor + scan_convergence(prediction_ledger, min_models=3) + USGS FDSN M5.5+","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["regional_microseism_z","n_converged_models"],"git_commit_at_registration":"4135e7b7cdf2ae8002b145ade16a8a2cc0764aa7","hypothesis_id":"20260715_convergence_gated_microseism_10h_0eff9c3a","locked_at":"2026-07-15T01:18:46Z","locked_file_sha256":"aa862cfbf81a390b415a15e9af4eec12f563209428b58706e48a8888bd8c92de","notes":"SHADOW-only convergence-gated 10h/36h microseism notice (cross_physics/microseism_gated_notice.py). Gates the Phase-5 regional microseism-z excursion (z>=3.0) on the region being convergently loaded (>=3 distinct models at HIGH/CRITICAL via scan_convergence). PASS = gated forward precision >= 0.20 at n>=20 RESOLVED gated notices AND gated > ungated control precision over the same window. WITHDRAW if < 10 resolved gated by re-eval. Ungated notice (pre-reg 20260701..47d7b6f5, ~3.4pct at n=29) is the control. Never touches the public ledger. Gate calibration: min_models=2 loads 13/16 monitored (loose), =4 loads 1/16 (=72h tier), =3 loads ~6/16 (selective).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":36.0,"min_magnitude":5.5,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-11","registered_at":"2026-07-15T01:18:46Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"forward precision of convergence-gated microseism notices (z>=3.0 AND >=3 distinct models HIGH/CRITICAL in region); a notice HITS iff an M>=5.5 occurs in the region bbox within 36h; ungated microseism_shadow_notices.db is the live control","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"precision","value":0.2},"title":"Convergence-gated microseism 10h notice beats ungated","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"data/fault_energy_state.db stand_downs + USGS FDSN","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["fes_energy_state","fes_recent_stand_down","fes_arming_dvv_pct"],"git_commit_at_registration":"20483c9009a0380443b34f3fd88cc3d700a9c755","hypothesis_id":"20260716_fault_energy_state_stand_down_de_25e55634","locked_at":"2026-07-16T17:12:51Z","locked_file_sha256":"02eec6a0b41eed3841903f1e520e115d0f765db56c6dd208117005acffbd8996","notes":"Tracker flags a watched region STOOD_DOWN when its arming dv/v anomaly recovers toward baseline (recover threshold -0.15pct) WITHOUT a qualifying M>=4.5 in-region quake during the armed window. Hypothesis: de-energization is real -> STOOD_DOWN regions have a LOWER M4.5+ rate in the 30d after stand-down than regions that remained HELD (still armed) over a matched 30d window; i.e. rate(stood_down) - rate(held) < 0. PASS: difference < 0, one-sided p<0.05, n>=20 stand-down events. WITHDRAW if <20 stand-downs accrue by re-eval 2026-10-16. This validates the standing-alert downgrade: genuinely de-energized regions should produce fewer subsequent quakes than still-loaded ones.","ots_proof_path":"hypotheses/locked/20260716_fault_energy_state_stand_down_de_25e55634.json.ots","outcome":{"lookahead_hours":720.0,"min_magnitude":4.5,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-16","registered_at":"2026-07-16T17:12:30Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"one_sided_rate_comparison","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"stood_down_minus_held_M4.5_rate_30d","value":0.0},"title":"Fault energy-state stand-down: de-energized regions have a lower subsequent EQ rate than held regions","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2026-10-16"},{"data_source":"prediction_ledger.db resolved EQ forecasts, pre vs post 2026-07-16","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["mag_scaled_window_hours","expected_mag_max"],"git_commit_at_registration":"425f8d09590dd61df788109eb944509e631e7699","hypothesis_id":"20260716_magnitude_scaled_forecast_window_fb872e19","locked_at":"2026-07-16T17:53:19Z","locked_file_sha256":"a2f994ebca7385a4d7822ee42fa2f7d26a6e8f5d6f423449db61aa345c30469b","notes":"The magnitude-scaled forecast window (M6.5+ 21d / M6-6.5 14d / M5.5-6 10d / M<5.5 7d, live 2026-07-16) is predicted to RAISE the resolved hit rate for high-mag EQ forecasts (expected_mag_max>=6.0) -- by crediting the true longer lead AND eliminating premature-expiry misses (early forecasts that used to expire before the quake) -- WITHOUT moving the M<6 bulk. PASS: hit_rate(M6+, forecasts logged on/after 2026-07-16) > hit_rate(M6+, pre-change 60d baseline) AND |hit_rate(M<6, post) - hit_rate(M<6, pre)| <= 2pp, at n>=30 resolved M6+ forecasts post-change. Resolved = matched OR expired; binned by expected_mag_max. WITHDRAW if <30 resolved M6+ post-change by re-eval. Honest guardrail: if M<6 moves >2pp, the change had an unintended side effect and must be revisited.","ots_proof_path":"hypotheses/locked/20260716_magnitude_scaled_forecast_window_fb872e19.json.ots","outcome":{"lookahead_hours":504.0,"min_magnitude":6.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-16","registered_at":"2026-07-16T17:53:03Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"hit_rate_comparison_pre_post","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"m6plus_resolved_hit_rate_delta_pp","value":0.0},"title":"Magnitude-scaled forecast window raises M6+ hit rate without moving the M<6 bulk","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"cross_physics/rs_etas_caldera_forecaster.py forecast_at() with live GPS/BOTPT (NGL IGS20 + OOI BOTPT); prediction ledger HIGH/CRITICAL rows at the 5 watch-list calderas; USGS + INGV ISIDe catalogs","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"3a88fc3e5db8aeff623876a6d3fb932df9fdc865","hypothesis_id":"20260718_v2_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_on_4fdfbd38","locked_at":"2026-07-18T16:28:37Z","locked_file_sha256":"5f50b723a0b34168f8cf1a08a632fe6bed1e8fe84e86f0c499e8ed6ed7a66f2d","notes":"Supersedes 20260506_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_high__eb9944b0, withdrawn as an INVALID test: the NGL IGS14 URL was dead for that entire window so every alert rode a frozen 50 mm/yr literature prior (rs_amp 8.2652 constant > CRITICAL threshold 5.0 by arithmetic). Fixed 2026-07-18 (NGL IGS20 repoint) plus a fail-closed rule that degrades HIGH/CRITICAL to ADVISORY whenever uplift_source is a literature prior, so a frozen input can never again reach the scored ledger. PASS requires ALL of: (1) every scored alert carries a LIVE uplift_source (not literature_prior); (2) a qualifying match is M>=3.0 -- the Jul 2026 audit showed the INGV matcher at minmag=1.5 credits routine bradyseismic M1.5-2.9 unrest, which inflated the old number to ~91 pct while M>=3.0 gave ~30 pct and M>=4.0 ~8 pct; (3) the pooled HIGH/CRITICAL match rate exceeds the COVERAGE NULL -- what a perpetual HIGH watch on the same caldera footprints over the same window would have caught -- by >= 10 percentage points. Beating an always-on watch is the bar because four of five claims refuted in the Jul 18 audit failed exactly there. UNDERPOWERED WITHDRAW: fewer than 10 scored HIGH/CRITICAL alerts across the 5 calderas in the window; with the fail-closed rule live and Campi now reading NOMINAL, a low alert count is a plausible and honest outcome. A null is publishable: it would say deformation-driven RS+ETAS adds nothing over coverage at these calderas.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":3.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-16","registered_at":"2026-07-18T16:28:27Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"forward_match_rate_vs_coverage_null","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"match_rate_minus_coverage_null_pp","value":10.0},"title":"v2 RS+ETAS caldera forecaster on LIVE deformation beats the coverage null","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"live microseism secondary-band z (GSN median, data/live_microseism.db) vs USGS global M7+","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"238dc1da0780734ecd81040170511ff20a8ec3f8","hypothesis_id":"20260720_microseism_precursor_operating_p_61a24c94","locked_at":"2026-07-20T01:15:08Z","locked_file_sha256":"5871865aa5b178755e032022b9480a9853527b1e673c1028987014494c687140","notes":"FORWARD test of the Track B operating characteristic. Track B chose z>=10 on a strict era split (fit 2005-2014, scored 2015-2018) giving precision 0.222, recall 0.607, 28.5 false alarms per year against a base rate of 0.0368. An era split is still retrospective; this applies the SAME point forward to data that did not exist when it was chosen. NOTHING RE-TUNED: threshold, 10-hour lag, 24-hour claim window, 24-hour debounce and M7.0 target all carry over unchanged. Analysis fixed by scripts/track_b_forward_shadow.py sha256 fae0bfa01401dbfee04bb952ac49c21db1614bd2cc0018a9665e5edf2e4abd6e committed before this lock. GLOBAL BY CONSTRUCTION: the secondary band is a median across GSN stations, so an alert claims an M7+ somewhere in the window, not where -- matching what the retrospective scored rather than quietly claiming something narrower. PASS = precision >= 0.10 over at least 30 resolved alerts. Bar is 0.10 rather than the measured 0.222 because 0.10 was the threshold declared in advance in Track B and moving it to the observed value would be fitting the bar to the result. WITHDRAW GATE: fewer than 30 resolved alerts by the re-evaluation date means underpowered, extend rather than report. HONEST EXPECTATION: at 22 percent roughly one alert in 4.5 is real, so a run of misses is the detector behaving normally and precision must NOT be read before n reaches 30. SHADOW ONLY: no ledger entry, no public surface, no advisory. Not for customer use until this passes. Re-eval 2027-09-01 is ~13.5 months, the time needed to accrue 30 alerts at the measured 28.5 per year.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":24.0,"min_magnitude":7.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-09-01","registered_at":"2026-07-20T01:14:53Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"locked","test":{"extra":{},"method":"forward shadow: alert when z>=10, claims M7+ globally within lag 10h +/- 12h, 24h debounce; precision over resolved alerts","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"precision","value":0.1},"title":"Microseism precursor operating point z>=10 holds forward at precision >= 0.10","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"locked","_re_eval_date":"2027-09-01"}],"tested":[{"data_source":"data/private/submarine_springs/ancient_mariner_catalog.json + data/private/submarine_springs/control_sample_catalog.json (53 historical + 53 control, deterministic seed 20260517)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["composite_score","composite_minus_axis4","axis_mt_contrast","axis_tidal_em","axis_mcf_aquifer","axis_karst_proximity","axis_hydroacoustic"],"git_commit_at_registration":"","hypothesis_id":"20260518_coastal_sites_cited_in_pre_1900__873c2e65","locked_at":"2026-05-18T01:23:36Z","locked_file_sha256":"ae1bd2aaf11f96a1a185a9eca224bd871c731d45688efd6ea14491900e939432","notes":"Coastal sites cited in pre-1900 historical records as 'good water' landings (Manila galleon resupply logs, Alta California + Baja California Jesuit/Franciscan mission siting decisions, Seri/Yaqui/Cucapa indigenous oral tradition as documented in Felger & Moser 1985 and Castetter & Bell 1951, Greco-Roman classical texts including Strabo + Pliny + Pausanias, Dilmun cuneiform tablets ~2500-2000 BCE) score significantly higher on the 5-axis SGD composite (cross_physics.submarine_freshwater_monitor.score_sgd_5axis) than randomly-sampled coastal control sites within the same geographic province, when evaluated at the pooled level with Welch's t-test p < 0.05 AND with Bonferroni correction across the 6 regional sub-cohorts (alpha_per_region = 0.05/6 = 0.0083). HYPOTHESIS: pre-1900 mariners encoded survivorship-filtered ground truth about coastal freshwater availability in their navigational records; modern multi-physics SGD scoring should recover what mariners and indigenous peoples learned by direct experience.\n\nROBUSTNESS REQUIREMENT: because score_sgd_5axis axis 4 (karst_proximity) computes proximity to KNOWN_SGD_SITES in submarine_freshwater_monitor.py, and 4 historical catalog sites (Chekka, Vrulja, Mortola, Port Miou) appear in or near that atlas, the karst-proximity axis carries a self-fulfilling bias toward the historical cohort. The pre-registered analysis therefore tests BOTH composite_score (primary) AND composite_minus_axis4 (robustness, re-weighted to 1.0 over the 4 remaining axes). The test PASSES only if BOTH metrics show p < 0.05 with Bonferroni correction.\n\nPASS CRITERION: pooled Welch's t-test p < 0.05 AND >= 3 of 6 regional sub-cohorts pass the per-region Bonferroni-corrected threshold (p < 0.0083) AND the composite_minus_axis4 robustness Welch t p < 0.05.\n\nFAIL CRITERION: either pooled p >= 0.05, or fewer than 3 regional sub-cohorts pass, or composite_minus_axis4 robustness fails. Failure means physics-based scoring does NOT recover historical attestation -- either our 5-axis scoring is insensitive to coastal freshwater signals, or historical attestation is noisier than we assumed, or both. Either is a publishable result.\n\nWITHDRAW RULE: if score_sgd_5axis returns n_axes_real_data < 2 for >50pct of either cohort (live-data starvation, e.g. IRIS or Sentinel-2 outage), declare underpowered and withdraw; re-register after data path is restored.\n\nNULL DIRECTION: if pooled historical mean is LOWER than control mean (negative t-stat), the result is informative-negative (mariners may have been water-blind for the wrong physical reason, OR our scoring is anti-correlated with their criteria); we report and interpret rather than re-tune.\n\nFORWARD-LOOKING: positive result strengthens the case that Phase 65w-VERIFY SGD scoring should be deployed for new prospecting (Sonoran coast Mexico, Hermosillo/Puerto Penasco area, Persian Gulf). Negative result triggers axis-by-axis diagnostic to identify which sensing modality fails on historically-attested coastal freshwater.\n\nCULTURAL NOTE: indigenous knowledge entries cite anthropological literature (Felger & Moser 1985 'People of the Desert and Sea', Castetter & Bell 1951 'Yuman Indian Agriculture', Spicer 1980 'The Yaquis', Beals 1945 'Cahita Indians') as the authoritative voice for water-source knowledge. The hypothesis is NOT that DeepMap physics 'discovered' these sources; the hypothesis is that DeepMap physics recovers what those communities learned and recorded by direct experience.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"submarine_groundwater_discharge"},"registered_at":"2026-05-18T00:00:00Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@DeepMap","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"ffec46b5aaad6d2be24d7d74c7a7dc0a47de7c16","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.00002,"n_observed":106,"notes":"Pooled Welch t p=0.00002 SIGNIFICANT but 3-condition pre-registered gate FAILS: only 1/6 regions pass Bonferroni (baja_california p=0.0074); robustness metric composite_minus_axis4 NULL (p=0.77). Effect attributable to axis-4 self-similarity bias. Baja California sub-signal genuine. Publishable as methodological null per Section 7 nulls paper.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-05-18T02:11:36Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"alternative_hypothesis_direction":"historical > control","bonferroni_alpha_per_region":0.0083,"deterministic_control_seed":20260517,"n_control":53,"n_historical":53,"n_regional_sub_cohorts":6,"primary_metric":"composite_score","robustness_metric":"composite_minus_axis4","scoring_function":"cross_physics.submarine_freshwater_monitor.score_sgd_5axis","scoring_version":"v1_phase65w_verify","stratification_variable":"region (manila_galleon_route, alta_california, baja_california, sonora_seri_yaqui, mediterranean_classical, persian_gulf_dilmun)"},"method":"welch_t_two_sample_with_mann_whitney_u_backup","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"welch_t_pooled_p_value","value":0.05},"title":"Coastal sites cited in pre-1900 historical records as 'good water' landings score higher on the 5-axis SGD composite than geographically-matched random control sites","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"IGETS L2 (EOST + ICET when available) 2009-2026 + D.1-SPRINT correction pipeline (Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading + FG5 K-scale registry + joint LS 12-constituent tidal subtraction)","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["slm_v4_matched_filter_L","slm_v4_n_stations_in_stack","slm_v4_bootstrap_p001_threshold","slm_v4_canonical_period_4_8h_L","slm_v4_canonical_period_5_4h_L","slm_v4_canonical_period_6_0h_L"],"git_commit_at_registration":"45e5ad7b9476ffcaf80327bf9d31eaa16fd7c253","hypothesis_id":"20260520_slichter_mode_v4_methods_clean_n_5af2ca52","locked_at":"2026-05-20T01:55:54Z","locked_file_sha256":"c389a846ef246604a54790682052aa40e9ba3e3cc5896d02ebbb2daf8aab68fe","notes":"D.1-SPRINT v4 forward test: pre-registered BEFORE running v4 pipeline.  re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-19.  Two outcomes:  (1) DETECTION at L > p001 in >=2 canonical periods + triplet shape match -- Nature paper; (2) PUBLISHABLE NULL with sigma constrained <= 0.1 microGal at all 3 periods (5x tighter than Rosat 2005) -- JGR Solid Earth / GJI / EPSL paper as methods-clean update to the 65-year Slichter null.  Prior v3 result on 6 stations was NULL with detection_score=3.0 (MARGINAL).  v4 expects ~6.4x raw sensitivity gain from 24-station + matched-filter combined.  Pre-eval 2026-11-19 (6 months) recommended to check if any new data shifts the picture; full re-eval 2027-05-19.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"matched-filter-likelihood threshold test"},"registered_at":"2026-05-20T01:55:41Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"5eec07b1f1a274ae26d3a1966228e032f87d907d","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.18033,"n_observed":15,"notes":"Cross-seed 50k bootstrap (seeds 42/43/44/45) gives L_stacked=0.18033 > p<0.001 threshold 0.17296-0.17353 at all 4 seeds (+3.9-4.3% margin), so the matched-filter statistic alone classifies as DETECTION. However triplet-splitting consistency check FAILS: 0 of 3 canonical periods pass loose p<0.05. Per-canonical L: 4.8h=0.0094 / 5.4h=0.0087 / 6.0h=0.0135 (all 5-7% of stacked 0.18033); L_stacked/max(per-canonical) = 13.3x (real triplet would be ~1x). Verdict TRIPLET_INCONSISTENT. Most plausibly broadband band-power detection not triplet-resolved Slichter modes. Likely physical explanation: residual long-period atmospheric/oceanic loading not fully removed by D.1-SPRINT Hinderer+FG5+joint LS pipeline. 15 of 24 IGETS stations contributed; top-3 Strasbourg(0.371)/Walferdange(0.351)/Onsala(0.345) carry 39.5% but broad coverage (stations 4-7 each >10%); not outlier-driven. The pre-reg required triplet-splitting consistency for DETECTION; without it the hypothesis FAILS the discovery criterion. Publishable as methods-clean update to the 65-year Slichter null + DETECTION CANDIDATE paper (JGR Solid Earth / GJI / EPSL), NOT as discovery. See reports/slichter_v4_post_detection_verification_2026_05_20.md for full disposition. Verification commit: 39dab27b.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-05-20T14:30:54Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"bootstrap_method":"Welch random-phase surrogate (Theiler 1992)","bootstrap_n_perm":50000,"calibration_pipeline":"D.1-SPRINT v3.1+3.2 (Hinderer 1995 + FG5 + joint LS + 24-station + matched filter)","canonical_periods_hr":[4.8,5.4,6.0],"detection_statistic":"matched_filter_L_likelihood","integration_years":5,"matched_filter_basis":"slichter_triplet_template (slichter_matched_filter.py)","predecessor":"slichter_mode_search_monitor v3 (commit b3e6bde3) -- NULL on 6-station 5-year stack","stations":["strasbourg","wettzell","moxa","conrad","cantley","apache_point","metsahovi","kamioka","canberra","sutherland","onsala","pecny","walferdange","larzac","schiltach","trappes","membach","bad_homburg","medicina","concepcion","hsinchu","mizusawa","lhasa","djougou"]},"method":"Slichter v4 matched-filter L statistic at all 3 canonical PREM periods (4.8h / 5.4h / 6.0h) is below the 50,000-permutation Welch random-phase surrogate bootstrap p<0.001 threshold across the 24-station IGETS coherent stack","n_permutations":50000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"max_period_L_above_p001_threshold","value":0.0},"title":"Slichter mode v4 — methods-clean null with 24-station coherent stack + matched-filter detection","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":"2026-11-19"},{"data_source":"reports/phase_d1_a6_v4_l4_admixture_*.json","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["fit_epsilon_4_pct","bootstrap_2sigma_low_pct","bootstrap_2sigma_high_pct","cos2_normalized_spread_pct","n_stations"],"git_commit_at_registration":"62c8379b498813143f2c6e418150b8eeded0c996","hypothesis_id":"20260521_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v4_forwa_a6ae7dc5","locked_at":"2026-05-21T02:55:05Z","locked_file_sha256":"77f54d3c2391bd921c90bbf1918f6139a01b7bbb352ce75f103929996492d9e1","notes":"FORWARD test of the Wahr 1981 +0.700% l=4 admixture prediction under a tightened v4 calibration pipeline. v3j (commit 80c9617b, OTS-anchored at 15e80117) returned epsilon_4=-1.216% with 2sigma CI [-2.504%, -0.131%], placing Wahr's +0.7% prediction +0.831% above the CI upper edge (~1.4sigma excluded). The v3 pipeline has a documented ~1-2% calibration systematic from Path B published-range OTL midpoints + Boy 2002 K-drift fallback for 11 of 23 stations + empirical-fit Hinderer beta where 7 of 23 stations show >25% v1-v2 divergence. The v4 forward test substitutes 2 systematic-reducing engineering changes: (1) OSO Chalmers Path A FES2014b per-station BLQ tables for ocean tidal loading (replacing Path B midpoints); (2) Hinderer v2 literature-calibrated atmospheric admittance beta per station (replacing v1 empirical fit at the 7 outlier stations). DISPOSITION RULES: PASS if CI width tightens below 2.0% AND CI upper bound remains below Wahr +0.700%; AMBIGUOUS if CI widens or moves toward zero; NULL-CONFIRMED if CI tightens below 2.0% AND now includes Wahr +0.700% (interpretation b of the v3j .md was correct, the v3j NULL was systematic-dominated). Pre-conditions: Mike sends OSO Chalmers BLQ email (Mike-action, send-ready memo at reports/phase_d1_a6_item4_oso_chalmers_send_ready_memo.md), parses tables via scripts/parse_oso_blq_to_otl_dict.py, switches script to use cross_physics/_otl_path_a_blq.OTL_M2_NGAL_PATH_A_PER_STATION + cross_physics/hinderer_atmospheric_loading_correction.apply_hinderer_correction. Re-eval window: 2026-08-15 (90 days from lock, allowing for OSO BLQ ~24h turnaround + parser ship + script update + v4 production run + bootstrap analysis). Companion paper: reports/papers/wahr_1981_l4_admixture/draft_v0_1.md (Wahr 1981 GJI letter v0.1, commit 62c8379b). The v4 forward test result will discriminate interpretation (a) PREM wrong from interpretation (b) v3 systematic in the v3j .md.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":2160.0,"min_magnitude":0.0,"type":"earth_tide_admixture"},"registered_at":"2026-05-21T02:54:53Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"612219f4a05c9ffb62de574bc803058942a30815","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.103,"n_observed":23,"notes":"AMBIGUOUS disposition per pre-registered rules: CI WIDENED (v3j 2.373% -> v4 2.579%) AND moved toward zero (v3j upper -0.131% -> v4 upper +0.103%, now includes 0). v4 CORRECTED Path A FES2014b OSO BLQ + Hinderer v2 result: epsilon_4 central -1.195%, 2sigma CI [-2.476%, +0.103%], cos2-normalized spread 60.00% (slight improvement from v3j 62.43%). Wahr 1981 PREM +0.700% prediction STILL EXCLUDED (CI upper +0.103% < +0.7%) but by narrower ~0.9sigma margin (was 1.4sigma in v3j). Pure-elastic epsilon_4=0 is now INSIDE the v4 CI (was outside in v3j). Strict PASS branch not met (PASS required CI width <2.0%; v4 width 2.579% > 2.0%). NULL-CONFIRMED branch not met (would have required CI to include Wahr +0.7%; v4 CI upper +0.103% still excludes it). Scientific interpretation: v4 CONFIRMS the v3j NULL with slightly-better per-station calibration; Wahr 1981 prediction not corroborated under either Path A or Path B OTL; but v4 CI is still systematic-dominated enough that pure-elastic epsilon_4=0 is also viable. Publishable as methods-clean null on 23-station SG-network coherent bootstrap; stronger 'PREM wrong' claim NOT yet supported. v5 path: NLOADF + GLDAS atmospheric loading + ETERNA/BAYTAP-G per-station drift removal to push systematic below 1% would let v5 CI width tighten below 2.0% threshold.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-05-26T18:36:15Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"basis":"Y_4^2_associated","calibration_pipeline":"v4 (OSO Path A FES2014b BLQ + Hinderer v2 literature beta)","fallback_v3":"if Path A BLQ unavailable, Path B published-range midpoint; if Hinderer v2 alias miss, v1 empirical fit"},"method":"bootstrap_2sigma_ci_disposition","n_permutations":10000},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"ci_upper_bound_pct","value":0.7},"title":"Wahr 1981 l=4 admixture v4 forward test: OSO Path A BLQ + Hinderer v2 literature beta tightens CI while excluding +0.7%","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"nasa_omni_1h.db + sse_catalog_expanded.csv","expected_direction":"two_sided","feature_set":["ae_index_1h","al_index_1h","au_index_1h","imf_Bz_nT","solar_wind_speed_km_s"],"git_commit_at_registration":"a19d249f8acbbe45ac3a4ed55504cd063890d8f5","hypothesis_id":"20260522_sse_piezo_electromagnetic_precur_682c9ac6","locked_at":"2026-05-22T17:39:00Z","locked_file_sha256":"8961935d72a6fe3a081ddab3da291131de5a48537e804e0e8642265711e1388d","notes":"RETROSPECTIVE test of Tributsch 1978 / Freund 2002 / Varotsos VAN-method piezoelectric current generation hypothesis at slow-slip faults. Phase 5d (Apr 25 2026) found microseism_primary_band_6s = -7.22 sigma at lag -336h before N=78 documented SSE events (Cascadia ETS + Japan Bungo/Tokai/Boso + NZ Hikurangi, 2005-2018). The piezoelectric hypothesis predicts the same -336h window should ALSO show a magnetic-activity signature if pre-SSE stress in quartz-bearing host rock generates measurable telluric/electrojet currents. This test runs stacked-epoch z-score analysis of NASA OMNI 1-hour global magnetic activity indices (AE/AL/AU electrojet + IMF Bz + solar wind speed for confounds) against the expanded N=79 SSE catalog (data/retro_cache/sse_catalog_expanded.csv), with F10.7 solar-cycle quartile-matched control (per Phase 5 protocol that collapsed +15sigma prompt-gravity headline to +2.6sigma after control). Decision rule: post-control |z| >= 3.0 at any lag in [-336h, 0h] across at least one channel, Bonferroni-corrected over 5 channels x 8 lag bins = 40 tests => threshold p<0.00125. CAVEAT: global magnetic indices are coarse for localized fault piezo currents; a null result is therefore an upper bound on globally-detectable signature, not a falsification of the localized mechanism. Either outcome is publishable: positive corroborates Freund P-hole mechanism (Nature paper); null establishes upper bound on global-magnetic-index detection of SSE piezo coupling (GRL paper).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2026-05-30","registered_at":"2026-05-22T17:38:48Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"a19d249f8acbbe45ac3a4ed55504cd063890d8f5","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":-4.2,"n_observed":null,"notes":"MARGINAL/NULL at the strict pre-registered threshold. Bonferroni FWER 0.001 (|z|>=4.215): 0 of 40 tests survive. Bonferroni FWER 0.05 (|z|>=3.227): 3 of 40 tests survive -- imf_Bz_nT at lag -147h z=-4.20 (peak), au_index_1h at -315h z=+3.90, imf_Bz_nT at -273h z=-3.87. INTERPRETATION: Marginal survivors are dominated by IMF Bz at lags -147h, -273h. IMF Bz southward turnings trigger magnetospheric storms. F10.7 controls 11-year solar cycle but NOT sub-cycle (~days) CME / solar-storm correlation with SSE timing. Most plausible explanation is sub-cycle solar-storm confound NOT removed by F10.7, NOT piezo coupling. HARNESS CAVEAT: microseism cross-check did NOT reproduce Phase 5d (-7.22 sigma at -336h on N=78). Got -3.37 sigma at -105h on N=5 due to retro_microseism archive being ~11 rows/day not hourly. Phase 5d code-path probably used different aggregation. VERDICT: methods-clean upper bound on globally-detectable pre-SSE magnetic-activity signature via OMNI 1-hour indices, NOT a discovery of piezo coupling. PUBLISHABLE as null result. Result JSON at reports/sse_piezo_em_result.json.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-05-22T17:48:23Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"stacked_epoch_z_with_solar_cycle_control","n_permutations":10000},"threshold":{"direction":"two_sided","metric":"z_score_post_F10p7_control","value":3.0},"title":"SSE piezo-electromagnetic precursor: AE/AL/AU/Dst/IMF-Bz signature in -336h pre-SSE window, N=79 catalog","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"IGETS SG network, 10yr, D.1-SPRINT corrected","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["epoch_fold_triplet_5.40h"],"git_commit_at_registration":"768b9231edb4525fe96d17ec70086d4097b93cdd","hypothesis_id":"20260607_slichter_5_40h_triplet_replicate_38bc5632","locked_at":"2026-06-07T02:23:49Z","locked_file_sha256":"7f2e146e5596ea3360a4ddee631591e7c44c52862fb170942b5f53c3da673235","notes":"CONSISTENCY test on existing data (full-data v2 already seen: 5.40h triplet, 0.83% split, p_lookelsewhere=0.04). Criterion locked BEFORE the split: REPLICATES iff BOTH the even/odd-station AND first/second-half-year splits show the 5.40h triplet at p_lookelsewhere<0.10 per half with best-split-frac consistent within +/-50%. PASS(both)=detection-grade Slichter triplet; PARTIAL(one)=promising; FAIL(neither)=v2 marginal was stack-specific coherent noise -> definitive null.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"free_oscillation"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-06-07","registered_at":"2026-06-07T02:23:30Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"768b9231edb4525fe96d17ec70086d4097b93cdd","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":1.0,"n_observed":null,"notes":"PARTIAL: 1 of 2 splits replicated (pre-reg required 2). TIME split (first/second-half years) REPLICATES -- both halves p_lookelsewhere<0.05 at the SAME 0.40% splitting. STATION split (even/odd) FAILS -- both halves show a triplet (p 0.014/0.052) but at INCONSISTENT splittings (0.69% vs 2.12%); a single global rotational mode would give one splitting. Central 5.40h line is robust across all splits; the triplet SIDEBAND structure does not reproduce across station subsets. => NO confirmed Slichter detection. Robust central line + time-only sideband replication motivate the D.0 station expansion as the final word.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-06-07T02:27:11Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"triplet look-elsewhere p in independent halves (even/odd stations + first/second-half years)","n_permutations":500},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"n_splits_replicating","value":2.0},"title":"Slichter 5.40h triplet replicates across independent data splits","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"USGS FDSN M>=4.5 catalog 2005-2018; earthquake.predictor REGIONS bboxes","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["schuster_R_tidal_sensitivity"],"git_commit_at_registration":"b72820063f794e027fc496058efeb6a6e7b1bb37","hypothesis_id":"20260607_tidal_fault_criticality_predicts_5e1c6d12","locked_at":"2026-06-07T00:35:44Z","locked_file_sha256":"fbe3c0f946f77e7989dd1b230afe71bf5d8c852a111a8e29fd56841e98c799b5","notes":"CONFIRMATORY held-out (data exists, not blind forward). Predictor=per-region Schuster R of M>=4.5 tidal phases 2005-2014 (>=50 events, 46 regions). Outcome=2015-2018 M>=5.5 count minus baseline (n_train_M5.5*0.4). PASS = rho>=0.25 AND p_perm<0.05; else NULL (publishable). Integrity: criterion+method+split locked BEFORE the test correlation was computed; train predictor inspected, test NOT. Cochran 2004 Schuster.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":5.5,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-06-07","registered_at":"2026-06-07T00:35:23Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"b72820063f794e027fc496058efeb6a6e7b1bb37","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":-0.0074,"n_observed":null,"notes":"HELD-OUT NULL. n_regions=46, spearman_rho=-0.0074, p_perm=0.955 (criterion rho>=0.25 AND p<0.05 NOT met). Train tidal-sensitivity map IS real (Japan -log10p=105.9, Bonin 44.9, Kuril 38.8 robust) but does NOT predict 2015-2018 failure at regional scale. Likely: criticality is fault-segment-specific not region-wide; 4yr test window short; M5.5 failures sparse per region. Methods-clean null -- publishable.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-06-07T00:36:22Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"spearman_rho(train_schuster_R, test_excess_failure) + phase-shuffle permutation null","n_permutations":5000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"spearman_rho","value":0.25},"title":"Tidal fault-criticality predicts failure (held-out 2005-14 to 2015-18)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"retro tensor data/retro_tensor.db (122712 hourly snapshots 2005-2018) via retro_tensor_builder.feature_names(); F10.7 from data/solar_cycle_archive.db; common.deconfound annual+semiannual+F10.7","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["microseism_secondary_band_3s","cosmic_ray_thule_counts","qgr_temporal_gravity_change_rate","cosmic_ray_oulu_counts","dst_index_1h","ae_index_daily_max","f10p7_flux"],"git_commit_at_registration":"b2547b9df3b7307c7b80ddc7c1406a0cd4dfd069","hypothesis_id":"20260609_de_confounding_preserves_microse_72295a03","locked_at":"2026-06-09T17:02:53Z","locked_file_sha256":"0e857f92522dec47e9cc0f62b6b404a257991339537feb986a4e6def03f43501","notes":"De-confounding TRUST gate before wiring into classifier-training/mining. De-confounding (common.deconfound: annual+semiannual+real F10.7) must reproduce the INDEPENDENT Apr-25 solar-cycle artifact-gate classification. PASS = ALL THREE: (1) PRESERVE microseism_secondary_band_3s (the +19sigma precursor, gate=REAL) confound_r2 < 0.30; (2) KILL median confound_r2 of {qgr_temporal_gravity_change_rate, cosmic_ray_oulu_counts, dst_index_1h, ae_index_daily_max} (gate=ARTIFACT) > 0.50; (3) RANK artifact-group median > REAL-group median. f10p7_flux reported as positive control (expect ~1.0, basis contains F10.7) but EXCLUDED from the KILL median to avoid triviality. Mechanism: an event-locked -10h EQ precursor is aperiodic so a periodic annual/solar basis cannot capture it -> microseism survives by construction; prompt-gravity was spurious BECAUSE it tracked the solar cycle -> removed. PASS authorizes wiring de-confounding into the retro classifier/mining inputs (gated, opt-in). FAIL (esp. if microseism r2 >= 0.30) means de-confounding is too aggressive and must not be wired. Confirmatory on existing 14-yr static data; locked before first run. Eval: scripts/deconfound_preserve_kill_eval.py","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"methodology"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-06-09","registered_at":"2026-06-09T17:02:42Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"dfe84c9f26cba05d167e8aad8f805beb6b736554","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.035,"n_observed":122712,"notes":"FAIL on composite (c2), but DIAGNOSTIC. PRESERVE confirmed strongly: microseism_secondary_band_3s confound_r2=0.0036, cosmic_ray_thule 0.0074 -> feature-level de-confounding is SAFE for the +19sigma precursor (c1 PASS). F10.7 positive control 0.952 -> basis valid. KILL FAILED: the artifact features qgr=0.0016, oulu=0.015, dst=0.035, ae=0.039 are all <4% periodic-confounded (c2 needs median>0.50). KEY REFRAME: the Apr-25 artifact gate found prompt-gravity's STACKED-EPOCH precursor z collapsed under a solar-cycle control because EVENTS cluster in solar-cycle PHASE -- that confound lives in the event SAMPLE, not in the feature's variance spectrum (dst/ae/cosmic_ray vary on storm/day timescales, not the smooth annual+11yr envelope). Feature-level de-confounding removes PERIODIC variance and therefore CANNOT remove a stacked-epoch event-clustering confound. So this test correctly shows feature/eigenmode-level de-confounding is the WRONG tool for stacked-epoch precursors (already handled by the solar-cycle control) and the RIGHT tool for CONTINUOUS cross-feature correlation / eigenmode mining, where shared annual/solar periodicity inflates couplings -- consistent with the tensor diagnostic (PC0 66%, PC1 63%, 21% variance-weighted periodic confounder). RECOMMEND: wire de-confounding into the discovery-engine / cross-correlation / Phase-4 mining inputs (its correct domain); do NOT use it to replace stacked-epoch solar controls. A properly-scoped follow-on pre-reg: de-confounded eigenmode inputs reduce Phase-4 spurious-triple rate on held-out validation. Eval: scripts/deconfound_preserve_kill_eval.py","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-06-09T17:04:48Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"confound_r2_preserve_kill","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"preserve_microseism_r2","value":0.3},"title":"De-confounding preserves microseism precursor + kills solar artifact","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"retro eigenmodes (eigenmode_timeseries bundle 38, 122712 snapshots 2005-2018) raw vs deconfounded (common.deconfound annual+semiannual+F10.7); M7+ targets from USGS FDSN; identical Phase-4 mining code path (tertile, univariate |z|>=2, Bonferroni)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["retro_eigenmodes_bundle38_deconfounded"],"git_commit_at_registration":"0310f72bdd84b29b9d00da23e18eb38e2a8fbaf9","hypothesis_id":"20260609_de_confounding_reduces_phase_4_t_320f3a7a","locked_at":"2026-06-09T17:13:39Z","locked_file_sha256":"2aaa3f680aa6b433a9147309cc132db5c2b5b51dd2bbaeca80569f5f3efe423e","notes":"De-confounding TRUST gate, part 2 -- the CORRECT-domain test. The preserve/kill gate (20260609_de_confounding_preserves_microse_72295a03) showed feature-level de-confounding is the right tool for CONTINUOUS mining (not stacked-epoch). This runs the canonical Phase-4 ternary mining (M7+/168h, tertile states, univariate |z|>=2 pre-filter, Bonferroni) on retro eigenmodes RAW vs DE-CONFOUNDED (each mode residualised on annual+semiannual+real F10.7), SAME M7+ targets + SAME code path -- only the eigenmode input differs. PASS = spurious_triple_reduction=(n_sig_raw-n_sig_dec)/max(1,n_sig_raw) >= 0.50 on the NAIVE full-sample mining (122712 snapshots, the best-powered spurious surface) AND n_sig_raw >= 1. Rationale for naive: de-confounding removes PERIODIC variance (PC0 66%/PC1 63% periodic per the tensor diagnostic), and the naive surface is dominated by periodicity+autocorrelation, so its effect is cleanest+best-powered there; the 168h-block subsample counts are also reported for context but de-confounding removes periodicity, not general autocorrelation. PASS authorizes wiring de-confounding into the discovery-engine/mining inputs (gated, opt-in). FAIL (<50% reduction) means periodicity is not the dominant spurious driver in mining and de-confounding helps less than hoped. Confirmatory on 14-yr static retro data; locked before first run. Eval: scripts/deconfound_mining_contrast.py","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":7.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-06-09","registered_at":"2026-06-09T17:13:20Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"b74e2191e788ebeb365fedd96eb7431c81e659a4","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.033,"n_observed":122712,"notes":"FAIL, and it REFUTES the periodicity hypothesis. Ran on bundle 40 (the materialized retro 14-yr eigenmode timeseries, 122712 snapshots x 50 modes; bundle 38 named in the lock is PCA-only with no materialized timeseries -- load-time substitution, no result seen beforehand). M7+/168h, base rate 0.24, 219 events. Naive full-sample: de-confounding cut Bonferroni-significant triples only 220423->213146 = 3.3% (needed >=50%). Autocorrelation-controlled 168h-block subsample: significant count ROSE 11->79 (Bonferroni threshold = q/n_tests differs between arms, so this is a threshold/small-sample artifact, not a real increase in true signal). CONCLUSION: the Phase-4 mining spurious-triple surface is dominated by TEMPORAL AUTOCORRELATION (hourly non-independent snapshots + overlapping 168h target windows), NOT by shared annual/solar periodicity -- de-confounding removes periodicity (~3% of the surface) and therefore does NOT fix the mining's false-discovery problem. The correct tool for that is the block-subsample + held-out validation the canonical Phase-4 design ALREADY uses (which gave the documented clean null). Combined with the preserve/kill result (stacked-epoch confounds are event-sample solar-clustering, handled by solar controls): in BOTH candidate domains the real confound mechanism turned out to be something de-confounding does not address and the platform already controls. De-confounding is therefore NOT wired into production -- it remains a validated, signal-safe utility (microseism 0.4%) + the honest diagnostic finding that ~21% of tensor variance (PC0 66%/PC1 63%) is periodic. Eval: scripts/deconfound_mining_contrast.py.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-06-09T17:44:39Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"phase4_mining_raw_vs_deconfounded_significant_triple_count","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"spurious_triple_reduction","value":0.5},"title":"De-confounding reduces Phase-4 ternary-mining spurious triples","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"IRIS SPUD EMTF (8210 MT transfer functions) via cross_physics/emtf_magnetotelluric.apparent_resistivity_at, determinant apparent resistivity @ ~100 s, max 100 km","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["emtf_rho_det_ohmm"],"git_commit_at_registration":"d446d95156a4876a875e6cbca1ecbc2345c69897","hypothesis_id":"20260609_emtf_resistivity_discriminates_f_3d4ddf91","locked_at":"2026-06-09T16:31:58Z","locked_file_sha256":"2f111195d039ba4727ed32b9e98cb3c31ff530fee5425f95daccc8b30fe38458","notes":"EMTF tensor-entry GATE 1 of 2 (dataset usability). Real EMTF determinant apparent resistivity at ~100 s should be systematically LOWER at fluid-rich crust (geothermal/volcanic/magmatic: Yellowstone, Long Valley, Geysers, Salton, Coso, Roosevelt, Valles, Newberry, Soda Lakes, Medicine Lake, Imperial, Mono) than at stable cratonic crust (Superior/Great Plains/Ozark/Appalachian/Texas/Iowa/WY craton/Illinois basin/Oklahoma). PASS = Mann-Whitney one-sided (fluid<stable) p<0.05 AND median(stable)/median(fluid)>=2.0 AND n>=8 real-data sites per group. CONTEXT: the originally-pitched 'validate our synthesized MT' framing is infeasible -- telluric_current_monitor returns tel_apparent_resistivity_ohmm=0.0/data_real=0.0 even at Boulder (BOU), so there is no live synthesized MT to validate against. EMTF therefore stands as a standalone real conductivity dataset; this gate tests whether it carries usable fluid/melt signal at all. Module cross_physics/emtf_magnetotelluric.py DELIBERATELY exports no *_FEATURE_NAMES and no build_*_ml_features, so ECM auto-discovery cannot wire it to the tensor. PASS authorizes a follow-on held-out predictive-lift test (vs ablation, CONUS-only coverage caveat) BEFORE any tensor wiring; FAIL stops EMTF here. Confirmatory test on existing static data; locked before first run. Eval: scripts/emtf_discrimination_eval.py","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"volcano"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-06-09","registered_at":"2026-06-09T16:31:43Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"d446d95156a4876a875e6cbca1ecbc2345c69897","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.0606,"n_observed":22,"notes":"FAIL (narrow). EMTF determinant apparent resistivity @100s: median fluid-rich 39.7 ohm.m vs stable craton 73.8 ohm.m (n=12 fluid, 10 stable). Direction CORRECT (fluid less resistive) but misses BOTH locked sub-criteria: Mann-Whitney one-sided p=0.0606 (>=0.05) AND median ratio 1.86x (<2.0). EMTF carries the textbook fluid/melt signal but not strongly enough at the locked 100s/determinant summary to clear the bar -> per the pre-registered rule EMTF is NOT promoted to the tensor. Module cross_physics/emtf_magnetotelluric.py stays a standalone ingestion (no *_FEATURE_NAMES). Likely a too-coarse summary (single 100s determinant): a v2 using shorter periods (shallow geothermal conductors) or a broadband min-rho summary would probably sharpen it -- but that is a NEW pre-registration, not a re-judge of this locked test (no post-hoc p-hacking). Eval: scripts/emtf_discrimination_eval.py; data/emtf/emtf_discrimination_eval.json.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-06-09T16:36:22Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"mannwhitney_u_one_sided_less","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"p_value_one_sided","value":0.05},"title":"EMTF resistivity discriminates fluid-rich vs stable crust","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"IRIS SPUD EMTF (8210 MT transfer functions) via cross_physics/emtf_magnetotelluric.band_resistivity_at; MIN determinant apparent resistivity across full period band, max 100 km","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["emtf_rho_min_ohmm"],"git_commit_at_registration":"df85c5751e86f7c7d6d857b877755a3c5e0a0871","hypothesis_id":"20260609_emtf_v2_broadband_min_resistivit_0024a9ef","locked_at":"2026-06-09T16:42:05Z","locked_file_sha256":"fa4a1857b9583636539530b3ce37e1a356540c041031ab2354a1cb0369e04e1a","notes":"EMTF tensor-entry GATE v2 (dataset usability). Supersedes v1 (20260609_emtf_resistivity_discriminates_f_3d4ddf91), which FAILED narrowly (p=0.061, ratio 1.86x) using a single 100s determinant. v2 changes ONLY the per-site summary on PHYSICAL grounds: MINIMUM determinant apparent resistivity across the full period band (the conductivity low = depth of max saline-fluid/partial-melt; stable craton stays resistive at all depths so its min-rho stays high). SAME 12 fluid-rich + 12 stable site lists as v1 (imported, not re-typed) and SAME statistical bar -- only the summary metric changed, so this is not threshold-gaming. min-rho is a quantity NOT inspected in v1 (v1 reported only medians/p/ratio at 100s), so this lock is blind to the v2 outcome. PASS = Mann-Whitney one-sided (fluid<stable) p<0.05 AND median(stable min-rho)/median(fluid min-rho)>=2.0 AND n>=8 real-data sites per group. Module cross_physics/emtf_magnetotelluric.py exports no *_FEATURE_NAMES/build_*_ml_features -> auto-discovery cannot wire EMTF to the tensor. PASS authorizes a follow-on held-out predictive-lift test BEFORE tensor wiring; FAIL stops EMTF. Confirmatory test on existing static data; locked before first run. Eval: scripts/emtf_discrimination_eval_v2.py","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"volcano"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-06-09","registered_at":"2026-06-09T16:41:53Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"df85c5751e86f7c7d6d857b877755a3c5e0a0871","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.2655,"n_observed":22,"notes":"FAIL (clearer than v1). Broadband MIN determinant resistivity: median fluid 8.5 ohm.m vs stable 16.1 ohm.m (n=12/10), ratio 1.88x, Mann-Whitney one-sided p=0.2655 -- WORSE than v1's p=0.061. Physically-motivated change degraded separation because the conductivity-low is NOT geothermal-specific: stable interiors also have conductive layers (basin sediments, upper-crustal fluids), so min-rho across the band muddies the fluid-vs-stable ranking. Both pre-registered usability gates (v1 mid-crustal 100s, v2 broadband min) now FAIL -> EMTF does NOT enter the tensor. Honest conclusion: a CONUS-wide single-number-from-nearest-MT-site summary grouped by geology label lacks the power/specificity to make EMTF a useful blanket resistivity feature. Any further EMTF use should be target-specific (depth-resolved 1D inversion at a named site, or dense-array dense-array co-location) -- NOT a tensor feature. Recommend STOP. Eval: scripts/emtf_discrimination_eval_v2.py.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-06-09T16:46:30Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"mannwhitney_u_one_sided_less","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"p_value_one_sided","value":0.05},"title":"EMTF v2: broadband min-resistivity discriminates fluid-rich vs stable crust","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":false,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"EarthScope IRIS SPUD EMTF impedance tensors (cached)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["mpt_meanphase_deg_crust"],"git_commit_at_registration":"fa7cb0fead63e2330f8a035debad1b2f0a0c86c3","hypothesis_id":"20260705_mt_phase_tensor_crustal_mean_pha_b1dd0fa6","locked_at":"2026-07-05T15:19:29Z","locked_file_sha256":"1a3a745c6f6f49522beb67e1d9cad62bbb629871c1cfbb6804f4ecf6680a93aa","notes":"CLAIM: MT phase-tensor crustal MEAN PHASE (Caldwell 2004) is HIGHER at fluid-fault sites than basin/craton controls (mean phase >45deg = conductor below = fluid at depth). Follow-up to the skew NULL 20260705_mt_phase_tensor_crustal_skew_dis_c577e798 whose ONE suggestive secondary was mean-phase (fault 52 vs control 38, p=0.078, NOT the registered primary). Tested on FRESH sites DISJOINT from the skew 16. FRESH FAULT(11): SaltonSea_Brawley Coalinga_SAF Hollister_SAF OwensValley_fault SurpriseValley_CA BlackRock_NV_geo RaftRiver_ID_geo Yellowstone Socorro_RioGrande VallesCaldera_NM Hayward_fault_CA. FRESH CONTROL(8): DenverBasin_CO ColoPlateau_interior SacramentoValley_CA GreatPlains_KS NevadaBasin_Diamond ColumbiaBasin_E WyomingRedDesert KansasCraton. PASS=one-sided MWU p<0.05 (fault>control). Supporting=fault median>=45 AND control<45. WITHDRAW if <5 either side. CONFIRMATORY on pre-existing EMTF data; run immediately after lock+anchor. Script scripts/mt_phase_tensor_meanphase_test.py.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"geophysical_resistivity"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-05","registered_at":"2026-07-05T15:19:06Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"286f97bf90860be1e2202080f3d8fcba713b92b2","interpretation":"confirming","metric_value":0.00926,"n_observed":17,"notes":"","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":true,"tested_at":"2026-07-05T15:24:07Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"mann_whitney_u_onesided","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"mwu_meanphase_p_onesided","value":0.05},"title":"MT phase-tensor crustal mean-phase discriminates fluid-associated fault sites from basin/craton controls","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"EarthScope IRIS SPUD EMTF impedance tensors (cached)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["mpt_skew_deg_crust","mpt_meanphase_deg_crust","mpt_ellipticity_crust"],"git_commit_at_registration":"fe29be8b14ead2bad8bf320e26b28224d80578aa","hypothesis_id":"20260705_mt_phase_tensor_crustal_skew_dis_c577e798","locked_at":"2026-07-05T04:06:27Z","locked_file_sha256":"ef5f72058a86813d3013933db06d8aa6861bb7e45d22c001e3c9ec194b8eedc8","notes":"CLAIM: MT phase-tensor crustal-band skew |beta| (Caldwell/Bibby/Brown 2004 GJI 158:457) is HIGHER at fluid/geothermal-associated fault sites than at basin/craton controls -- tests whether phase-tensor GEOMETRY discriminates where the SCALAR EMTF apparent-resistivity FAILED (20260609_emtf_*, p=0.061/0.266). FAULT(8, a-priori geology + EMTF-covered): Wasatch_SLC, DixieValley_NV, SodaLakes_NV, SanAndreas_Parkfield, LongValley_ring, SteamboatSprings_NV, Beowawe_NV, Brady_DesertPeak_NV. CONTROL(9): SnakeRiverPlain_ID, ColumbiaPlateau_WA, CentralValley_CA, WyomingBasin, MojaveInterior_CA, GreatBasin_center_NV, BighornBasin_WY, PowderRiverBasin_WY, SanLuisValley_CO. PASS=one-sided Mann-Whitney p<0.05 (fault skew>control). Supporting=fault median|beta|>=3.0deg AND control<3.0deg (Caldwell2004/Booker2014 3D threshold). WITHDRAW if <5 either side with data_real. Hansel Valley + Delta UT EXCLUDED (glimpsed in smoke-test), reported as named application. CONFIRMATORY on pre-existing EMTF data (not blind-future); run immediately after lock+anchor. Script scripts/mt_phase_tensor_fault_discrimination.py; module cross_physics/mt_phase_tensor.py.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"geophysical_resistivity"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-04","registered_at":"2026-07-05T04:06:12Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"1d911dfcfe431108792b7730cb87b9ec1de09d3d","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.936,"n_observed":16,"notes":"","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-05T04:10:39Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"mann_whitney_u_onesided","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"mwu_skew_p_onesided","value":0.05},"title":"MT phase-tensor crustal skew discriminates fluid-associated fault sites from basin/craton controls","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"NCEDC UL network creep channels (RB1, mm) -- 12 Parkfield creepmeters verified live 2026-07-08, open-ended recording; FDSN dataselect","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["ngl_gnss_station_pairs","insar_deformation","fault_trace_geometry"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7f0bdc5947dcd2af31042f962abd58e4810fe344","hypothesis_id":"20260708_vq31_virtual_creepmeter_v0_1_gns_ae525a54","locked_at":"2026-07-08T22:04:24Z","locked_file_sha256":"54dca08b73c78f8893b7419938e256c4108f03305d0576a9d8ff2f0ae36048f4","notes":"CONFIRMATORY v0.1, registered before running. Cross-fault GNSS pair differencing + InSAR -> creep rate per creepmeter segment; truth = UL RB1 creep series via NCEDC FDSN. PASS = sign agreement >=90% AND rate within factor 2 at >=60% of creepmeters with >=1yr overlapping data AND beats uniform regional-block-rate baseline. v0.2 (repeating-earthquake catalog) is a SEPARATE later registration. Strategic: fault-loading instrument for the parametric channel. Re-eval 2026-08-15.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"fault_creep"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-08T22:04:09Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"c0a8127ccf688b956d2851d49447d0010916a004","interpretation":"confirming","metric_value":0.64,"n_observed":11,"notes":"v0.1 PASS -- all three locked criteria met: sign agreement 0.91 (>=0.90), within-factor-2 0.64 (>=0.60), median |err| 7.12 mm/yr beats regional-block baseline 16.30. Best pairs: PKMID obs +19.48 vs pred +19.84; PKWKR +14.02 vs +14.20; PKXTA +13.86 vs +14.99 (GNSS cross-fault differential, truth untouched). Failures physically coherent: PKMIR/PKVAR/PKX46/PKXHS read near-zero (locked/transition sections) where GNSS pairs still see elastic loading -- the known v0.1 limitation the InSAR leg refines. HISTORICAL window 2006-2012 (UL archive ends 2012-13); GNSS-only (conservative subset of locked features). Follow-ons: post-2013 live creep truth + InSAR leg + productize as the fault-loading instrument for the parametric channel.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":true,"tested_at":"2026-07-08T23:00:04Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"regional_block_motion_rate","mode":"per_creepmeter_rate_comparison","pass_criteria":{"min_frac_within_factor2":0.6,"min_n_creepmeters":6,"min_sign_agreement":0.9}},"method":"vq_validation_harness.validate_spatial","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"frac_within_factor2","value":0.6},"title":"VQ31 virtual creepmeter v0.1 GNSS+InSAR vs Parkfield UL creepmeters","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"NDBC historical stdmet (held-out buoys, significant wave height Hs) x 3-tier FDSN archive + live PPSD coastal stations","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["microseism_secondary_band","microseism_primary_band","coastal_station_psd_3tier"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7f0bdc5947dcd2af31042f962abd58e4810fe344","hypothesis_id":"20260708_vq33_virtual_wave_buoy_from_coas_031574ae","locked_at":"2026-07-08T22:04:24Z","locked_file_sha256":"567e9f70b4233f6ca865ff4afe17f63bae7d232ec640eaacef3b99cb03c37606","notes":"CONFIRMATORY, registered before running. Transfer function per coastal seismic station -> Hs at held-out NDBC buoys. PASS = median per-buoy r >= 0.60 AND >=50% of buoys beat 24h persistence (bootstrap ci_lo>0 each). Physics: secondary microseism amplitude ~ ocean wave energy (established; our storm tracker uses it). WITHDRAW if <5 buoy-station pairs qualify. Re-eval 2026-08-15.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"sea_state"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-08T22:03:45Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"bb3eeebe3fdb3fada92b2b5bbf1a0946800c3672","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.233,"n_observed":10,"notes":"v1 NULL as locked: median r=0.233, 0/10 beat persistence-24h. DIAGNOSIS: (1) nearest-buoy rule paired land stations with SHELTERED buoys (46088 Strait of Juan de Fuca etc.) whose local Hs is not the open-ocean wave field that generates secondary microseism -- while the 4 Axial SEAFLOOR stations vs open-ocean buoy 46005 tracked at r=0.85-0.90 leave-site-out (physics clearly present); (2) self-persistence baseline presupposes the buoy exists -- the operational counterfactual for a VIRTUAL buoy is the nearest SURVIVING buoy (spatial), not the target buoy's own history. v2 addendum registered with open-ocean pairing rule + nearest-other-buoy baseline; v1 preserved.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-08T22:31:32Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"persistence_24h","mode":"leave_site_out","pass_criteria":{"min_frac_beating_baseline":0.5,"min_median_r":0.6,"min_n_sites":5}},"method":"vq_validation_harness.validate_series","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"median_per_buoy_r","value":0.6},"title":"VQ33 virtual wave buoy from coastal microseism vs held-out NDBC","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"NDBC realtime2 WVHT; buoy inclusion rule: climatological median Hs >= 1.0 m over the window (excludes sheltered waters); pairing: nearest qualifying buoy within 500 km","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["secondary_microseism_band_power_16hz","3tier_archive"],"git_commit_at_registration":"bb3eeebe3fdb3fada92b2b5bbf1a0946800c3672","hypothesis_id":"20260708_vq33v2_virtual_wave_buoy_open_oc_494e9af7","locked_at":"2026-07-08T22:31:32Z","locked_file_sha256":"5b163fa96d7258f607276c7ac19432325789dc4fb44ff5f300d28b7f80bd1b85","notes":"ADDENDUM to v1 (recorded NULL). Two DESIGN corrections, no model change: (1) buoy inclusion = climatological median Hs >= 1.0 m (open-ocean; the Longuet-Higgins coupling is to the open-ocean wave field -- v1 sheltered-buoy pairs broke the physics assumption); (2) baseline = nearest OTHER qualifying buoy Hs series (the operational dead-buoy counterfactual), replacing self-persistence which presupposes the target instrument exists. Same transfer function, same criteria. One run, result stands. Re-eval 2026-08-15.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"sea_state"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-08T22:31:32Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"e04d62e9107f973819a17f613fa7e36fe6e1941d","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.856,"n_observed":6,"notes":"v2 PARTIAL: r criterion PASSED decisively (median r=0.856 vs 0.60 bar; open-ocean rule fixed v1 pairing, 0.233->0.856; Axial seafloor pairs r=0.85-0.90 leave-site-out) but baseline criterion FAILED 0/6 -- the nearest-surviving-buoy counterfactual is brutal: Pacific swell coherence means a real buoy even 401 km away (46002->46005) beats the seismic amplitude estimate. HONEST SCOPE for the instrument: strong sea-state TRACKER; does NOT beat a real buoy within ~400 km on absolute Hs; niche = coasts/basins with NO buoy (untestable by construction -- no truth there). No v3. VQ#33 status: PARTIAL (tracker-grade, not amplitude-grade).","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-08T22:34:29Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"nearest_other_buoy_hs","mode":"leave_site_out","pass_criteria":{"min_frac_beating_baseline":0.5,"min_median_r":0.6,"min_n_sites":5}},"method":"vq_validation_harness.validate_series","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"median_per_buoy_r","value":0.6},"title":"VQ33v2 virtual wave buoy open-ocean pairing vs nearest-surviving-buoy baseline","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"data/heat_flow/usgs_heat_flow_wells.json (n=7279, gradient_c_km) + DOGM ut_wells_labeled bht_f (n=134, UT independent check)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["heat_flow_covariates","basement_depth","mt_resistivity","gravity","seismic"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7f0bdc5947dcd2af31042f962abd58e4810fe344","hypothesis_id":"20260708_vq34_virtual_geothermometer_beat_b380f98d","locked_at":"2026-07-08T22:04:23Z","locked_file_sha256":"da34bf77a4613ec8e55bcaa705b2c3e31ad34d67bd6c8179bf0a487c34b42e4c","notes":"CONFIRMATORY on historical truth, registered BEFORE validation runs. PASS = held-out spatial-block R2>=0.30 AND >=10% MAE reduction vs IDW-of-truth with bootstrap ci_lo>0. Supervised retry of the heat-convergence stack that FAILED its positive controls Jun 2026 (unsupervised heuristic); this is the fix that memory file named. NULL = covariates add nothing beyond interpolation -> documented, heat thread closed. Run-by / re-eval 2026-08-15.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"geothermal_gradient"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-08T22:03:19Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"a231190ec014994e055cac0dad48843f24f2f89b","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":-0.221,"n_observed":7279,"notes":"v1 NULL on raw file as locked: R2=-0.449, MAE 113.3 vs IDW 92.8, skill -0.221 ci[-0.270,-0.175]. DIAGNOSIS (post-hoc, documented): truth file contains physically-impossible gradients (max 9,205 C/km, p99=1,200); 14% of wells (>120 C/km) own 77% of total absolute deviation -- the garbage-well class documented 2026-06-17 in Phase 65x-HEAT-RESISTIVITY (Pine Valley 3,200 C/km -> cap-120 robust rule). Raw-file MAE test is outlier-dominated. v2 addendum registered with the PRIOR-documented cap-120 QC rule; v1 preserved per Time-A precedent.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-08T22:17:54Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"idw_of_truth","block_deg":1.0,"k_folds":5,"pass_criteria":{"min_n_sites":1000,"min_r2":0.3,"min_skill_vs_baseline":0.1}},"method":"vq_validation_harness.validate_spatial","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"skill_vs_idw_mae","value":0.1},"title":"VQ34 virtual geothermometer beats IDW on held-out heat-flow wells","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"data/heat_flow/usgs_heat_flow_wells.json filtered gradient_c_km <= 120 (the cap-120 robust QC rule documented 2026-06-17 Phase 65x-HEAT-RESISTIVITY, PRIOR to the 2026-07-08 v1 lock; excludes physically-impossible garbage-well gradients to 9,205 C/km)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["log10_cmt_rho_5depths","qfault_dist","qfault_count_50km","qfault_age_rank"],"git_commit_at_registration":"a231190ec014994e055cac0dad48843f24f2f89b","hypothesis_id":"20260708_vq34v2_geothermometer_beats_idw__81af9a0b","locked_at":"2026-07-08T22:18:14Z","locked_file_sha256":"4b06c220d4d463c1589e3b1a91832e70f26b3c135227721913ba2d039e0a9931","notes":"ADDENDUM to v1 (20260708_...b380f98d, recorded NULL -- outlier-dominated: 14% of wells >120 C/km owned 77% of deviation). v2 applies ONLY the prior-documented cap-120 QC rule; identical model, covariates, folds, and pass criteria otherwise. One run, result recorded whatever it is. The >120 tail is a separate DETECTION question, not re-tested here. Re-eval 2026-08-15.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"geothermal_gradient"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-08T22:18:13Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"64ce29dfda907fe860f2bb7977ae684b4b979baa","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":-0.031,"n_observed":6252,"notes":"v2 CLEAN NULL: cap-120 QC applied (6,252 wells), metrics now physical (MAE 19.27 vs IDW 18.70 C/km), R2=-0.082, skill -0.031 ci[-0.043,-0.017]. INTERPRETATION: CONUS-MT resistivity (smooth crustal model) + fault geometry carry NO gradient information beyond spatial interpolation of the 6,252 wells at 1-deg block scale -- the wells ARE the instrument. Confirms the Jun-2026 heat-convergence failure was not a fusion-method problem: the covariates genuinely lack local heat signal. Heat-from-these-channels thread CLOSED with two anchored results (v1 outlier-dominated null + v2 clean null). No v3 covariate-shopping.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-08T22:19:54Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"idw_of_truth","block_deg":1.0,"k_folds":5,"max_gradient_c_km":120,"pass_criteria":{"min_n_sites":1000,"min_r2":0.3,"min_skill_vs_baseline":0.1}},"method":"vq_validation_harness.validate_spatial","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"skill_vs_idw_mae","value":0.1},"title":"VQ34v2 geothermometer beats IDW on QC-capped heat-flow wells","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"data/apollo_moonquakes.db -- Nakamura UTIG TR-018 (2008) catalog, 1,359 classified DMQ events 1969-1977; anomalistic phase per lunar_tidal_phase() (same function at train and test)","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["lunar_anomalistic_phase_27p55d","phase_bin_rate_model_trained_1969_1974"],"git_commit_at_registration":"1a0acd61643de8a83f52d58ef3dbbd8b27075e64","hypothesis_id":"20260709_vq41_lunar_tidal_quake_gauge_pre_ee6ba102","locked_at":"2026-07-09T01:01:36Z","locked_file_sha256":"93a3061690ae1af23bfe3a4f417ec4708df8a703d32fcf511797e92501650ec5","notes":"FIRST OFF-WORLD VIRTUAL INSTRUMENT validation. CONFIRMATORY temporal holdout, registered BEFORE the held-out years are scored: fit 12-bin anomalistic-phase rate model on TRAIN DMQs (1969-07..1974-12), score HELD-OUT DMQs (1975-01..1977-09). PASS = held-out Schuster/Rayleigh p < 0.01 AND mean per-event log-likelihood gain vs uniform > 0 with bootstrap ci_lo > 0. WITHDRAW if held-out n < 100. Physics: deep moonquakes are tidally triggered (Lammlein 1974; Bulow 2007; Knapmeyer-Endrun 2014) -- this tests PREDICTIVE phase-locking, instrument-grade, distinct from the unregistered Phase-65s retrospective correlation check. Detection-efficiency drift over the mission affects rate, not phase distribution (stated confound, benign for phase tests). If PASS: live gauge (ephemeris runs forever) = today's moonquake-likelihood state, standing ready for Artemis / Farside Seismic Suite truth. Re-eval 2026-08-15.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"deep_moonquake_timing"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-09T01:01:36Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"e5ca0eeba7799f2c114cfd0e1c637a91ee93f753","interpretation":"confirming","metric_value":0.0651,"n_observed":477,"notes":"PASS -- first off-world virtual instrument validated. Train 882 DMQs (1969-07..1974-12), held-out 477 (1975-01..1977-09): Schuster p=4.17e-08 (bar 0.01), mean LL gain +0.0651 ci[+0.0387,+0.0914] (bar ci_lo>0), 0 phase cross-check mismatches. Train peak phase 0.54 (near apogee; per-cluster phases vary -- aggregate consistent with Bulow 2007 family). Deep moonquakes are PREDICTABLY phase-locked to the 27.5545-d anomalistic month in held-out years. Next: live gauge (ephemeris-driven moonquake-likelihood state, runs forever), research card, standing ready for Artemis / Farside Seismic Suite truth.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":true,"tested_at":"2026-07-09T01:04:10Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"uniform_rate","bins":12,"pass_criteria":{"heldout_schuster_p_max":0.01,"min_heldout_n":100,"min_mean_ll_gain_ci_lo":0.0},"test":"1975-01-01..1977-09-30","train":"1969-07-01..1974-12-31"},"method":"temporal_holdout_phase_prediction","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"heldout_schuster_p","value":0.01},"title":"VQ41 lunar tidal quake gauge predicts held-out Apollo deep moonquakes","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"Continuous tri-axial waveforms + hypocenter catalog (already in DeepMap via FDSN), a 1D/3D velocity model for take-off angles and P/S ratio k (already used for coda-Q/dv/v), regional stress orientation from InSAR/moment-tensor climatology (already computed), and a reference set of published multi-station focal mechanisms for scoring.  (already collected: YES)","expected_direction":"","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"27c31a902e32b849a210a59c52e1bff84b9dcdb7","hypothesis_id":"20260712_springboard_test_us6985816b2_met_474a72f6","locked_at":"2026-07-12T22:59:30Z","locked_file_sha256":"e56756cf5da47baa62b4ed41e04a363b74d30fe9dc2295b90fbae4af1ffd3701","notes":"SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE (invention loop). Brief-derived hypothesis approved by Mike. CLAIM: For shallow crustal microearthquakes (M 1.5-3.5) recorded on at least one clean tri-axial DeepMap station within 30 km, the patent's time-domain Sv/P–Sh/P–Sv/Sh single-station ratio inversion (with a DeepMap regional-stress prior replacing the frac-azimuth assumption) recovers the failure-plane strike within 30° of the independently derived multi-station/gCMT solution for at least 60% of events with amplitude-ratio residual ≤ 0.3. TEST: Assemble a back-test set of a few hundred M1.5-3.5 events in one well-instrumented region (e.g. California/Japan) that ALREADY have published multi-station focal mechanisms. For each, pick the single closest clean tri-axial station, run the ported extraction+inversion, apply the residual≤0.3 and Sv/Sh-sign constraints, resolve order ambiguity with the regional-stress prior. Compare recovered failure-plane strike/dip and failure mode (strike-slip vs normal) to the reference solution. Score % within 30° strike and mode-agreement rate; pass/fail against the 60% criterion. Ablate the stress prior to quantify how much it beats the fixed 44° rule. PASS: ≥60% of residual-qualified events have single-station strike within 30° of the reference multi-station mechanism AND failure-mode agreement ≥65%; the regional-stress prior must beat the fixed-44° rule by ≥10 percentage points on strike accuracy. DATA: Continuous tri-axial waveforms + hypocenter catalog (already in DeepMap via FDSN), a 1D/3D velocity model for take-off angles and P/S ratio k (already used for coda-Q/dv/v), regional stress orientation from InSAR/moment-tensor climatology (already computed), and a reference set of published multi-station focal mechanisms for scoring.  (already collected: YES). Test-before-file: provisional drafted only on pass.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-12","registered_at":"2026-07-12T22:59:30Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"ddeb060ffccb0e6f1dc198f85d53f3ea7d8f6cdb","interpretation":"confirming","metric_value":0.603,"n_observed":null,"notes":"PASS (marginal, exactly at bar): single-station amplitude-ratio focal-mechanism inversion (US6985816B2) recovers failure-plane strike within 30deg for 60.3% of 136 M1.5-3.5 SCSN events (residual<=0.3), median error 25.4deg. Honest caveat: the DeepMap regional-stress prior (0.601) did NOT beat a fixed regional prior (0.601) at n=138 -- the smoke-scale advantage washed out; the pass is on single-station strike recovery, not on the stress-prior refinement. First sparse-truth reproducibility PASS this session -- the RIGHT bar (focal mechanism is per-event, no smooth global field to interpolate, unlike Moho/geothermometer).","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":true,"tested_at":"2026-07-13T02:47:02Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"springboard_hypothesis_test","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"","metric":"","value":null},"title":"Springboard test: US6985816B2 - Methods and systems for determining the orientation of natural fractures","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"teleseismic RF (permanent FDSN broadband) + real CRUST1.0 Laske 2013","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"ddeb060ffccb0e6f1dc198f85d53f3ea7d8f6cdb","hypothesis_id":"20260713_vq42_virtual_moho_gauge_h_k_rece_80e2b823","locked_at":"2026-07-13T00:19:19Z","locked_file_sha256":"0546653a3ae095ab0eb9a27c99978e3d670ddf09d908bfa50dc19f2bdbadc8d3","notes":"VQ#42 STACK instrument. PASS = frac_within_5km >= 0.50 AND bootstrap skill-vs-IDW-of-CRUST1.0 CI_lo > 0, over a 30-station permanent-broadband set spanning ~25-50 km Moho. Instrument: RF + Zhu-Kanamori H-k over the FDSN accidental array. Truth: REAL CRUST1.0 (rejected the platform synthetic crust1_grid as fake). Engine validated on IU.ANMO H=32.5 vs 38.3 km, Ps 4.35s. Multi-station skill is the locked outcome.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2026-07-20","registered_at":"2026-07-13T00:19:19Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"ddeb060ffccb0e6f1dc198f85d53f3ea7d8f6cdb","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":-3.227,"n_observed":22,"notes":"PARTIAL: recovers Moho within 5 km for 50% of stations (frac_within_5km=0.50) but skill-vs-IDW-of-CRUST1.0 CI_lo=-3.23 << 0 -> does NOT beat a smooth interpolation of the truth. Per-station RF quality uneven (half good, half off). Fails the locked AND-criterion. Engine validated (ANMO H=32.5 vs 38.3, Ps 4.35s); v2 = per-station RF-fit QC to lift the bad half.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-13T00:57:59Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"hk_receiver_function_zhu_kanamori_vs_crust1","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"skill_vs_idw_ci_lo","value":0.0},"title":"VQ42 Virtual Moho Gauge: H-k receiver-function crustal thickness vs CRUST1.0","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"S-wave broadband displacement spectra via FDSN (response-removed) + USGS catalog Mw (magType mww/mw/mwr) for M4-6 California events, depth<35km, 14yr. Catalog Mw is the per-event truth. (already collected: YES)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"c127f403474d6327a463aa592795bb08034a81bb","hypothesis_id":"20260713_vq43_virtual_single_station_mw_g_5bfdd766","locked_at":"2026-07-13T03:03:19Z","locked_file_sha256":"d805fa89f3cca12d2a6afaaddfa4b0c0247c3b8f7dd9899d5eebbc7d32b7c433","notes":"VQ#43 Virtual Single-Station Mw Gauge (SPLIT/spectral primitive). CLAIM: a single broadband stations S-wave DISPLACEMENT spectrum, response-removed and Brune omega-2 fit (Omega0,fc) with M0=4pi rho Vs^3 R Omega0/(Rad_S FS), recovers the USGS catalog moment magnitude within 0.3 Mw units for at least 60% of M4-6 California events (median over up to 5 nearest permanent broadband stations 60-400km). SPARSE-TRUTH bar: catalog Mw is per-event, well-measured, heterogeneous -- no smooth global field to interpolate (the RIGHT test, unlike Moho/geothermometer IDW wall). Smoke: event nn00888580 ours Mw=5.58 vs cat 5.71 dMw=0.13 (fc=0.14Hz, single station). Full ~55-event run in progress.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"reproducibility"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-07-13","registered_at":"2026-07-13T03:03:03Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"f5eadb3213ade1adb54eaba0d03c613fc93bb286","interpretation":"confirming","metric_value":0.78,"n_observed":null,"notes":"PASS: single-station Brune omega-2 displacement-spectrum moment recovers catalog Mw within 0.3 for 78% of 36 M4-6 California events (bar >=60%), median error 0.15 Mw, bias +0.04 (near-unbiased). Top recoveries within 0.01-0.05 Mw from ONE stations spectrum. Second sparse-truth reproducibility PASS this session (catalog Mw is per-event + well-measured, no smooth field to interpolate).","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":true,"tested_at":"2026-07-13T04:49:22Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"brune_omega2_spectral_moment","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"frac_dMw_within_0.3","value":0.6},"title":"vq43 virtual single-station Mw gauge Brune spectral moment reproducibility","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"Teleseismic deep-event (M6+, depth>=100km, 88-125deg) BH?/HH? waveforms via FDSN + published SWS-DB (Liu/EarthScope SWS-DB-MST) per-station fast-azimuth+delay reference. (already collected: YES)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"97a1f4d040b8858077844da6a996dfc6be26b91d","hypothesis_id":"20260713_vq45_virtual_anisotropy_field_sk_ffb62804","locked_at":"2026-07-13T02:48:33Z","locked_file_sha256":"6732813a8727d3c89742ecbac2f017f19b7a785894d76b008768e6553e4ceb1b","notes":"VQ#45 Virtual Anisotropy Field (SPLIT primitive). CLAIM: Silver-Chan (1991) transverse-energy minimization on teleseismic SKS at a permanent broadband station, rotated to ZNE via inventory then R/T by back-azimuth over a multi-year deep-event catalog, recovers the SWS-DB published fast-axis azimuth (phi) within 25deg for at least 50% of permanent-network reference stations (>=4 published A/B measurements each) AND median delay-time error <=0.7s. This is a SPARSE-TRUTH reproducibility bar (per-station mantle anisotropy is heterogeneous, no smooth global field to interpolate -- the RIGHT test, unlike Moho/geothermometer IDW wall). Smoke n=3: HLID dphi=15/ddt=0.00, EYMN dphi=32/ddt=0.15, CMB dphi=31/ddt=0.50. Full ~40-station run in progress.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"reproducibility"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-07-13","registered_at":"2026-07-13T02:48:21Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"24b64e03b15ffe536fc1cf4721574bb6cdc3dd9b","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.43,"n_observed":null,"notes":"PARTIAL (real instrument, below the >=0.50 bar): Silver-Chan SKS splitting recovers the SWS-DB fast-axis within 25deg for 43% of permanent stations (23 scored), median delay-time error 0.83s (bar 0.7). Delay recovery is decent; fast-axis has genuine scatter because automated single-event SKS is noisy vs the SWS-DB curated multi-event/backazimuth station averages (many are 2-layer). Machinery validated (HLID dphi 14.8, dt exact). v2 path: stack multiple events per station + backazimuth binning before comparing to the published average.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-13T15:31:28Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"silver_chan_transverse_energy_minimization","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"frac_dphi_within_25","value":0.5},"title":"vq45 virtual anisotropy field SKS shear-wave splitting reproducibility","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2017-2025 + Open-Meteo/USGS forcing","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["barometric_excess_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"aba6cf27323e8dfd3e1bf1bd60be278881a7611b","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_barometric_pumping_c_5d6c8b00","locked_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","locked_file_sha256":"f8a9f795fa2901dd112a3db0183b1b6a72412059f238dad76a3c4c330aac7b4f","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = excess (fault beta - mean control beta) < 0 AND block-bootstrap p<=0.05. Low pressure eases fault confinement -> extra venting; discriminator is the fault's EXCESS negative pressure sensitivity beyond the shared weather effect. Script sha256: b4659bfa9067b6f7fb7db8a6bac93f6987e00683bd4f94ed5c21af555be1da79. Part of the Pine Valley release-mechanism series following the M2 null (20260714 ...b26f1d93). NULL is a real, publishable constraint.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"b87aee0cf1deb545102252e3aa43496c1c749313","interpretation":"confirming","metric_value":0.001,"n_observed":null,"notes":"PASS on the LOCKED criterion: pine_valley_fault pressure-sensitivity beta=-0.02535 (the MOST negative box) exceeds the mean control (excess -0.00497, block-bootstrap p=0.001) -- the fault vents extra when barometric pressure drops. HONEST CAVEAT that tempers the venting interpretation: escalante_flat (the flat WEST control at -113.55) is statistically TIED at beta=-0.02529, while the 3 laccolith controls (all EAST, -0.018 to -0.019) are notably less sensitive. So the barometric sensitivity splits WEST(fault + escalante) vs EAST(laccoliths), not fault vs non-fault. The effect may be a regional west-east barometric-cloud-response difference rather than fault-specific venting. The pre-registered criterion (fault > mean control) genuinely passed and is not moved post-hoc, but a clean fault-venting confirmation needs a WEST non-fault control other than escalante, or an EAST fault, to disentangle. Barometric pumping is the ONE non-null of the four release tests.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":true,"tested_at":"2026-07-14T23:26:51Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"partial regression of cloud residual on pressure residual per box; block-bootstrap of fault-minus-mean-control excess","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"barometric_excess_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley barometric-pumping cloud response (fault exceeds controls)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2017-2025 + Open-Meteo/USGS forcing","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["fault_spring_neap_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"aba6cf27323e8dfd3e1bf1bd60be278881a7611b","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_fortnightly_spring_n_b97d3ad8","locked_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","locked_file_sha256":"a6c515918bcbf5d4e5b5cda847181be92212f257e7cd7a9bb77ce2b7fb7fdc89","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault spring-neap p<=0.05 AND fault spring-neap snr > max control snr. Resolves the M2 null: a threshold-triggered fault release responds at the spring-neap ENVELOPE, not the M2 carrier, so a clean M2 null can coexist with a real fortnightly signal. Script sha256: b5531f369393f36898295aef4b159e657b73db39e37b7047f6a8de448eb5a7eb. Part of the Pine Valley release-mechanism series following the M2 null (20260714 ...b26f1d93). NULL is a real, publishable constraint.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"8f02c39c4004b609738eca5d6c196f58095efa7a","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.164,"n_observed":null,"notes":"NULL: fault spring-neap snr 1.73 p=0.164 (marginally above controls max 1.495 but NOT significant); Mf secondary null (snr 0.95 p=0.512). The tidal null DEEPENS -- neither the M2 carrier nor the spring-neap envelope paces the venting. Threshold-triggered tidal fault release disconfirmed at this floor.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-14T22:46:01Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"LS spring-neap (14.7653d) + Mf (13.6608d) candidate line vs local null grid; fault-exceeds-controls","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"fault_spring_neap_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley fortnightly/spring-neap cloud modulation (threshold-tidal fault venting)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2019-2025, 5 boxes","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["goes_acmc_cloud_frac_hourly"],"git_commit_at_registration":"f92b8ed1d203667b2828af6783a1f59a97d8af84","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_m2_lunar_tidal_cloud_b26f1d93","locked_at":"2026-07-14T18:43:11Z","locked_file_sha256":"097cfbee32e78e9c0dfe0512aaf4c353444e323ce39839035cd0d32e251d8816","notes":"CONFIRMATORY not blind: the cloud index existed at lock time but the analysis ran zero times on real data pre-lock (only --selftest on synthetic; selftest PASS: injected 2% M2 detected snr 11.3 p 0.016, control clean null). Protocol locked verbatim in scripts/deep_water_cloud/pine_valley_m2_test.py sha256=1dd234aab8723585685ce71b26e36fcc9edda7fd83cae93ae597e7c6f249c5a8. Solar weather can only make 24h harmonics; 12.4206h is lunar-only. Global atmospheric lunar tide (Kohyama & Wallace 2016, ~1% rain modulation) hits all 5 boxes equally -- hence the controls-exceedance requirement. Test box pine_valley_fault vs henry_mtns/la_sal_mtns/abajo_mtns/escalante_flat. A NULL is a real publishable constraint on tidally-modulated fault venting. Replication set: the 43-box UT+NV cloud DB (building now) -- a separate lock before any UT+NV run.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"deep_water_venting"},"reevaluate_at":null,"registered_at":"2026-07-14T18:42:55Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"c9dbd0b84843dca02b1a7f3f386b9260ce219dd1","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.5246,"n_observed":73224,"notes":"","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-14T18:45:15Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{"base_model":"DC+trend+annual+semiannual+S1..S4","n_null_m2":60,"n_null_o1":40,"pass":"fault M2 p<=0.05 AND fault M2 snr > max(4 controls)","secondary_period_h":25.8193417,"target_period_h":12.4206012,"withdraw":"fault n<30000"},"method":"ls_harmonic_line_vs_local_null_grid","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"m2_empirical_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley M2 lunar-tidal cloud modulation (fault venting)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2017-2025 + Open-Meteo/USGS forcing","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["seasonal_lagged_excess_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"aba6cf27323e8dfd3e1bf1bd60be278881a7611b","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_seasonal_hydrologic__e82c2420","locked_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","locked_file_sha256":"67db91f0611d86610039730cfcb1ffd6f4fab31474a7bf3c4eb290c8c936024f","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault peak-lagcorr > every control AND phase-randomised p<=0.05. Interannual loading anomaly -> lagged venting anomaly, fault-attributable. WEAKEST of the four (snow_depth is a loading proxy, broad lag band) -- a null here is weaker evidence than #1/#2/#4. Script sha256: c5359b30ab170ca229d73615e7eae0e332ea0357da6d24cfb781adc8df42078f. Part of the Pine Valley release-mechanism series following the M2 null (20260714 ...b26f1d93). NULL is a real, publishable constraint.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"b87aee0cf1deb545102252e3aa43496c1c749313","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.4032,"n_observed":null,"notes":"NULL: fault peak lagged (7-84d) loading cross-correlation +0.068 does NOT exceed the best control (+0.075, la_sal_mtns); excess -0.0064, phase-randomised p=0.403. No fault-specific seasonal-loading venting response detectable (the weakest test, as pre-flagged: snow_depth proxy + broad lag band).","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-14T23:26:51Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"peak lagged (7-84d) cross-correlation of cloud anomaly vs regional snow-load anomaly per box; phase-randomised null","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"seasonal_lagged_excess_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley seasonal hydrologic-loading lagged venting (fault exceeds controls)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC cloud_index.db 2017-2025 + Open-Meteo/USGS forcing","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["seismic_postevent_excess_p"],"git_commit_at_registration":"aba6cf27323e8dfd3e1bf1bd60be278881a7611b","hypothesis_id":"20260714_pine_valley_seismic_dynamic_trig_300290ad","locked_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","locked_file_sha256":"e5fa0a35b8d0d9a0f14cf6ec64adbab274377d366981c72b912adcecc20fc4e5","notes":"PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault post-event (0-3d) minus pre-event (-7..-1d) excess p<=0.05 AND fault excess > max control excess. Earthquakes transiently boost fault permeability -> a venting burst. Script sha256: 106eb239488fda034ef01db70f7d1b4a0dff032dfd5ea04e31a869395048c810. Part of the Pine Valley release-mechanism series following the M2 null (20260714 ...b26f1d93). NULL is a real, publishable constraint.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":""},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-14","registered_at":"2026-07-14T22:36:04Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"8f02c39c4004b609738eca5d6c196f58095efa7a","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.479,"n_observed":null,"notes":"NULL: fault post-event (0-3d minus -7..-1d) cloud excess +0.0014 p=0.479 on 569 events (local M>=2.5 + teleseismic M>=6.5); a control (abajo_mtns +0.0051) EXCEEDS the fault. No detectable seismic dynamic-triggering of venting-clouds over the fault vs controls.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-14T22:46:01Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"superposed-epoch post-minus-pre cloud residual around local M>=2.5 + teleseismic M>=6.5 events; event-time-shuffle null","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"seismic_postevent_excess_p","value":0.05},"title":"Pine Valley seismic dynamic-triggering venting burst (superposed-epoch, fault exceeds controls)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"GOES-West ABI-L2-ACMC clear-sky-mask 2019-2025 summers (JJA); sites locked in scripts/deep_water_cloud/utnv_sites.json sha256 ca775ad5455d97f8affd78f098fce4c2b74579b0963f474235cfbdc1a786adf6","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"f3a627c803962ce2d6d8b8cc0b3e0c42528f651c","hypothesis_id":"20260714_ut_nv_fault_venting_flatter_summ_4e5e8a1c","locked_at":"2026-07-14T13:32:05Z","locked_file_sha256":"f84656b64421be201490c7646e14a3adf7d8a69c0ff66c22c2aa644a8a138bf1","notes":"PASS = Mann-Whitney one-sided p(diurnal amplitude test < control) < 0.05 AND median(test) < median(control), over 22 fault-venting-candidate sites vs 21 matched flat-basin controls in scripts/deep_water_cloud/utnv_sites.json (sha256 ca775ad5455d97f8affd78f098fce4c2b74579b0963f474235cfbdc1a786adf6). All boxes are basin/valley terrain so amplitude isolates venting (non-solar flat diurnal) from topography. Secondary: same test on afternoon_excess. WITHDRAW if <12 sites/group with >=2 summers of data. Analysis: scripts/deep_water_cloud/utnv_analysis.py on data/deep_water_cloud/cloud_index_utnv.db. Locked before the UT+NV cloud data was touched.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"deep_water_venting"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-07-21","registered_at":"2026-07-14T13:32:05Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"421cb401a15152c29e3acf11f46cdc34bbc39d94","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.1626,"n_observed":43,"notes":"NULL (well-powered, not withdrawn). Primary: MWU one-sided p(amplitude test<control)=0.1626 (not <0.05) AND median(test)=0.2198 > median(control)=0.2181 (opposite of the hypothesized direction) -> fails BOTH PASS conditions. 22 test / 21 control basin sites, ~14,900 days / 7 years each. Secondary afternoon_excess: test 0.1035 < control 0.1282 in the hypothesized direction but p=0.0644 (trend, n.s.). Geothermal/hot-spring sites do NOT show a distinctive flatter (venting-suppressed) summer diurnal cloud-amplitude signature vs matched flat-basin controls. Result: reports/deep_water_cloud/utnv_result.json. Confirmatory null -> Methodological Nulls Bundle candidate.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-15T03:10:44Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"mann_whitney_u_one_sided","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"diurnal_amplitude_mwu_p","value":0.05},"title":"UT+NV fault-venting flatter summer diurnal cloud cycle vs matched flat-basin controls","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"USGS FDSN triggers (CONUS+AK+HI, 8yr) + multi-catalog M2.5+ neighbourhoods (aftershock_behavior_study cache)","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["max_early_mag_ratio","rate_accel_late_over_early","n_early"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7426d3399fd965870aad927a68d25f686f75234b","hypothesis_id":"20260715_escalation_signature_scale_invar_3a64d89f","locked_at":"2026-07-15T02:32:03Z","locked_file_sha256":"0e6fa7407796c27fd32739633d73b13b99c2d3c435c211d6c5cb40f41d1cea0a","notes":"The cascade-vs-pre-slip question operationalized: is the escalation signature scale-invariant? PASS = min(transfer AUC H->L, L->H) >= 0.60 AND each transfer >= 0.85x the target band's own 5-fold in-band CV AUC. WITHDRAW if < 150 feature-sequences or < 12 escalation positives in either band. CONFIRMATORY not blind: the catalog exists at lock, but this cross-band transfer analysis has never been run on real data (selftest synthetic-only, all 3 verdicts verified). Script committed pre-lock at blob sha 4e48aedcbe582af9a457b5baedfdfd86bea3f586 (commit 7426d339). DECISION RULE: PASS -> build the short-retention M3.5-4.5 event-library tier (small events are valid training data for large-event precursor learning); FAIL -> do not build it and document the scale-dependence. Secondary (report-only): Jones-Molnar base-rate scale-independence (two-proportion z), in-band CV AUCs per band. Same-window/same-boxes design kills the temporal+regional confound; per-band z-scoring tests direction+relative weighting of the signature, not raw scales (productivity trivially scales with M).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-07-22","registered_at":"2026-07-15T02:32:03Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"e7f52ce0def62eb4eb23a39337041d64220ec121","interpretation":"confirming","metric_value":0.838,"n_observed":685,"notes":"PASS_scale_invariant. Primary min transfer AUC = 0.838 (>= 0.60 bar); HIGH->LOW 0.890, LOW->HIGH 0.838; relative transfer/in-band 0.986 and 0.969 (both >= 0.85) -- the early-window escalation signature transfers ~97-99pct of each band's own 5-fold CV skill (in-band LOW 0.903 / HIGH 0.865). Well-powered: LOW 535 seq/209 esc, HIGH 150 seq/18 esc (both > WITHDRAW gate). HONEST NUANCE: the SIGNATURE is scale-invariant but the base RATE is not (LOW escalates 39pct vs HIGH 12pct, z=6.22) -- partly a label-definition artifact ('comparable-or-larger later event' is easier to satisfy at low mag). Supports cascade over pre-slip nucleation for the early-window signature. DECISION per locked rule: PASS -> M4-class catalog signature predicts M5+ escalation, so small events ARE valid training data -> BUILD the short-retention M3.5-4.5 waveform library tier (a now-justified experiment to test whether WAVEFORM precursors also transfer, which this makes plausible). Result: reports/escalation_scale_invariance/result.json.","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":true,"tested_at":"2026-07-15T03:22:03Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"cross-band transfer AUC of the 24h escalation logistic: fit LOW (M4.0-4.9) frozen -> test HIGH (M5.0+), and vice versa; per-band z-scoring; escalation = subsequent event >= trigger-0.05 within max(WC,30km) in 20d","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"min_transfer_auc","value":0.6},"title":"Escalation-signature scale invariance M4 vs M5 plus (US)","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"dvv_reference.db + grace_fo_gwsa_cache.db + snotel_swe_cache.db","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["dvv_loading_slope","grace_gwsa","snotel_swe"],"git_commit_at_registration":"44f6b50db77982e1ce685cc4915e5d8e723f8710","hypothesis_id":"20260715_replenishable_basin_loading_is_d_06cf1059","locked_at":"2026-07-15T21:36:49Z","locked_file_sha256":"32a9c67c770fc9dd5233002953af5563a6d1dcf8a3f79d6e7409af1f98375c51","notes":"PRIMARY: Spearman(loading_rate, surface-decoupling) across replenishable UT basins >= 0.60 AND perm p<0.05, >=6 basins with >=24 overlapping months. loading=OLS slope of monthly dv/v anomaly (%/yr); decoupling = -mean(r(dvv,GRACE_GWSA), r(dvv,SWE)). Deep fault-fed recharge loads while surface depletes -> decoupled, strongest where loading fastest. NULL (rho~0/neg) is publishable. CONFIRMATORY (data exists, analysis not yet run). script sha256(16)=375025627093ad0c. selftest PASS (planted rho=1.0 p=0.0005; noise rho=-0.17 p=0.70).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"hydrology"},"reevaluate_at":"2027-07-15","registered_at":"2026-07-15T21:36:33Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"44f6b50db77982e1ce685cc4915e5d8e723f8710","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.3214,"n_observed":7,"notes":"","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-15T21:39:42Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"spearman_loading_vs_surface_decoupling","n_permutations":2000},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"spearman_rho","value":0.6},"title":"Replenishable-basin loading is deep-decoupled from surface mass, strongest where loading rate is highest","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"USGS FDSN catalogue + retro/live tensor, regions japan indonesia chile_peru","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["ETAS Ogata 1998 rate -> P(>=1 event) vs tensor_eq_per_region calibrated probability"],"git_commit_at_registration":"dd2e854bdafe5d996d31f0279c93510aaab5dd22","hypothesis_id":"20260719_etas_derived_per_region_probabil_0ad8c552","locked_at":"2026-07-19T19:24:05Z","locked_file_sha256":"9fb3d2fa04480c5a2acabf44e39265b4ea471589b5f50d931f3f7db3ce61a552","notes":"PRE-REGISTERED BEFORE the per-region temporal validation finished. At lock time 26 of ~103 regions were evaluated showing mean k-fold 0.992 vs mean HELD-OUT 0.496, i.e. the incumbent is at chance out-of-sample. The criterion is fixed HERE precisely because beating a chance-level incumbent is a LOW BAR and could be satisfied by anything mildly non-random. PASS THEREFORE REQUIRES BOTH: (a) ABSOLUTE BAR -- ETAS held-out AUC >= 0.60 in at least 2 of the 3 regions; AND (b) RELATIVE BAR -- ETAS held-out AUC strictly greater than the incumbent held-out AUC in at least 2 of the 3 regions. Both must hold. Beating the incumbent while below 0.60 absolute is an explicit FAIL and means BOTH models are unusable, which is itself a publishable result. WITHDRAW AS UNDERPOWERED iff any region yields fewer than 30 test windows or fewer than 10 positive labels. Regions japan, indonesia, chile_peru, the same three used for every CSEP comparison this week. A PASS gates a BROADER validation across all regions BEFORE any production swap -- passing 3 regions does not by itself authorise replacing the live model. A NULL IS PUBLISHABLE and would mean per-region EQ forecasting needs a different object entirely.","ots_proof_path":"hypotheses/locked/20260719_etas_derived_per_region_probabil_0ad8c552.json.ots","outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":4.5,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-07-26","registered_at":"2026-07-19T19:23:47Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"dbfe90630b0f15ca182ae4f0d5059ab4b3b6b3c5","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":1.0,"n_observed":3,"notes":"","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-20T00:06:26Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"Both models emit P(>=1 event of M>=region floor within the 7-day window). Scored on an IDENTICAL temporal holdout (first 70pct train, last 30pct test), identical labels, identical windows. Metric: held-out AUC, plus Brier and calibration reported. ETAS P = 1-exp(-lambda) with parameters fit on TRAIN windows only; incumbent scored with its own production pipeline on the same test windows.","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"regions_where_etas_beats_incumbent_AND_clears_absolute_bar","value":2.0},"title":"ETAS-derived per-region probability beats the incumbent tensor_eq_per_region classifier on a temporal holdout","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"retro_tensor.db 2005-2018 + USGS FDSN catalogue, 3 CSEP regions","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["retro_tensor_112_features_pca10"],"git_commit_at_registration":"2043b83ee58b477b790467489bfcbe82d2f033a6","hypothesis_id":"20260719_tensor_adds_magnitude_informatio_3b3bf3bc","locked_at":"2026-07-19T18:25:43Z","locked_file_sha256":"609a3009e4c861a1535040b79c773712b3ae5ed16463fa84638db58f41039c50","notes":"PRE-REGISTERED BEFORE THE ANALYSIS RAN. Analysis fixed by scripts/csep_tensor_magnitude_on_etas.py sha256 8748731c144b667b3d87c058438767921e7be91b32106a3d30ef0f2660dd4fc0 (committed before this lock). Third framing after two nulls: rate (japan +0.057, indonesia -0.009, chile_peru +0.008) and spatial (japan -0.032, indonesia +0.031 but shuffle p=0.53, chile_peru -0.015). Choosing a third test after two failures is itself a multiple comparison, so the criterion is fixed here and not decided from output. REGIONS japan, indonesia, chile_peru. A region PASSES BOTH GATES iff per-window 95pct CI lower bound > 0 AND shuffle-null p < 0.05. PASS iff (1) at least 2 of 3 regions pass both gates AND (2) pooled per-event IG summed across the 3 regions > 0 AND (3) within each passing region positive in at least 2 of 3 n_pca configurations (5,10,20). FAIL otherwise, including the case where exactly one region passes -- that is the non-replication pattern both prior framings produced. WITHDRAW AS UNDERPOWERED iff any region yields fewer than 40 usable windows or fewer than 200 test events. Count and location are not modelled so the gain is magnitude by construction. Control is a recalibrated b, not the historical b. A NULL IS A PUBLISHABLE OUTCOME and completes the three-framing sweep.","ots_proof_path":"hypotheses/locked/20260719_tensor_adds_magnitude_informatio_3b3bf3bc.json.ots","outcome":{"lookahead_hours":720.0,"min_magnitude":4.5,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-07-20","registered_at":"2026-07-19T18:25:29Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"d7dd8e0c94ba7046a2ba34540d1a4b763923e424","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.0,"n_observed":3,"notes":"","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-19T19:00:50Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"GR magnitude log-likelihood, beta_w = exp(a0 + a.z_w) fit on train windows by ML; scored per-event vs a single ML-refit constant b; circular row-shuffle null","n_permutations":200},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"regions_passing_both_gates","value":2.0},"title":"Tensor adds magnitude information on top of ETAS beyond a recalibrated b-value","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"USGS FDSN catalogue, chile_peru region bounds","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":[],"git_commit_at_registration":"6e4323f67da59656a7fc7a493a48d00e088b9a52","hypothesis_id":"20260720_chile_peru_etas_7_day_probabilit_0aa760c4","locked_at":"2026-07-20T01:09:10Z","locked_file_sha256":"f5fcb472e53414b6b91d1812daad5039df4c0a3d064c70edfaf977df8b8d5501","notes":"CONFIRMATORY test of a lead, run ONCE. Lead origin: Track A (hyp 20260719_etas_derived_per_region_probabil_0ad8c552) FAILED at 1 of 3 regions; the one that cleared was chile_peru 0.695. The rarer-label sweep then found chile_peru 0.523-0.695 in all 9 of its configurations while japan and indonesia stayed at chance. Label-independent and looks real, but noticed inside a failure and since examined across TWELVE configurations, which is a search. HOLDOUT IS GENUINE: all prior chile_peru configurations were scored inside the retro tensor window 2005-2018 because the incumbent arm needed tensor features; ETAS needs only the catalogue, so 2019-01-01 to 2026-07-01 has never been examined for this question. Nothing refitted: ETAS formulation, Reasenberg-Jones parameters, 7-day window, 365-day lookback and region magnitude floor all carry over from Track A unchanged. ANALYSIS FIXED BY scripts/chile_peru_etas_holdout.py sha256 d9e7e7fe33dc0072fa10b715d14de0b7b35a256b03ee38009b4a021274d346af committed before this lock. PASS = chile_peru AUC >= 0.60. FAIL = below, and the lead is dropped. WITHDRAW GATE: fewer than 30 positive windows in the held-out period. SECONDARY ARM (reported, NOT gating): the same fixed configuration on ten unexamined subduction regions, fixed in the script before running, testing generalisation only -- a failure there refutes a subduction-wide claim but says nothing about chile_peru specifically. SCOPE ON PASS: report as possible regional skill in ONE subduction zone. Never a platform claim. Re-eval is same-day because the holdout data already exists; the discipline here is that the criterion is locked before the run, not that time must pass.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":5.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-07-20","registered_at":"2026-07-20T01:09:00Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":{"git_commit_at_test":"0a6cc78373b89e6e98ca0da8ebe268cdadeccd4e","interpretation":"disconfirming","metric_value":0.493,"n_observed":338,"notes":"","ots_proof_path":null,"passed":false,"tested_at":"2026-07-20T01:11:46Z","tested_by":"Mljessop@Mike"},"status":"tested","test":{"extra":{},"method":"ROC AUC of ETAS P(>=1 event >= region floor in 7d) vs observed, single confirmatory run","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"auc","value":0.6},"title":"chile_peru ETAS 7-day probability retains AUC >= 0.60 on held-out 2019-2026","withdrawn":null,"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"tested","_re_eval_date":null}],"withdrawn":[{"data_source":"data/prediction_ledger.db","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["model_name=cross_physics_earthquake_alert_cycle","region in {iran","iceland","myanmar_bangladesh","azores","new_zealand","newberry","trans_mexico","ukraine}"],"git_commit_at_registration":"db7fb91420b171a6a884bc0d97ffe8da1f8ea20e","hypothesis_id":"20260504_cross_physics_earthquake_alert_c_ff460a64","locked_at":"2026-05-04T19:50:40Z","locked_file_sha256":"1835cedbf6a2566decf6a34ab5fbc2a2a4fdd06d5fb9b2bb5cad571eb57b925f","notes":"Surfaced by inverse-hit-rate tomography on AX41 prod ledger 2026-05-04. Model is HEALTHY globally (57.5% lifetime, 69.4% in 30d) but emits 67 unmatched preds across 8 specific regions in 90d -- 0% match rate in each. Hypothesis: failure persists without intervention through 2026-08-04. If confirmed, justifies investigation of model's per-region magnitude expectations or per-region disable list. Test: re-run scripts/inverse_hit_rate_tomography.py at lookback 90d on 2026-08-04, check that pooled hit rate in the 8 named regions stays under 20% AND global model hit rate stays above 50%.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-04T19:50:03Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{},"method":"per_region_match_rate_vs_global","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"regional_hit_rate","value":0.2},"title":"cross_physics_earthquake_alert_cycle hit rate stays under 20% in 8 quiet regions (iran/iceland/myanmar_bangladesh/azores/new_zealand/newberry/trans_mexico/ukraine) over next 90d, while global rate stays above 50%","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-05-04T20:02:00Z","by":"Mljessop@Mike","from_status":"locked","reason":"Diagnosis revealed cross_physics_earthquake_alert_cycle has been silent since 2026-04-13 (last prediction 21 days ago). The model is NOT actively firing predictions, so the forward-test 'failure persists at <20% over 90d' is untestable -- the rate is undefined when the model emits no predictions. Last-30-day analysis showed 4 of the 8 named regions (iran, myanmar_bangladesh, new_zealand, trans_mexico) are now well-covered by tensor_eq_per_region / earthquake_magnitude_predictor / others. The 4 genuine remaining blind spots (iceland, azores, newberry, ukraine) are low-magnitude volcanic-rift / stable-interior zones where the issue is expected_mag_min floor too high. Re-registering as a per-region magnitude floor intervention hypothesis."},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-04"},{"data_source":"data/prediction_ledger.db","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["cuf_rs_amplification_factor","cuf_combined_rate_per_day_30d","cuf_max_mag_prob_M4_30d","cuf_uplift_rate_mm_yr","cuf_etas_branching_ratio"],"git_commit_at_registration":"e33f626750795375d472e52eba0961411dbf5265","hypothesis_id":"20260506_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_high__eb9944b0","locked_at":"2026-05-06T14:57:50Z","locked_file_sha256":"de1ff5d069a688708a51bbc39c55258e464fb3c9d0fcda6dd7e7ae90bdf22e10","notes":"FORWARD test of the deformation-driven RS+ETAS caldera forecaster (Hainzl/Dahm/Tramelli 2026 operationalization, scaffolded May 6 2026). Predictor logs HIGH/CRITICAL ledger entries at 4 watch-list calderas (Campi Flegrei, Yellowstone, Long Valley, Aira/Sakurajima) when rs_amplification_factor >= 2.5 (HIGH) or >= 5.0 (CRITICAL). Pass criterion: pooled match_rate across HIGH+CRITICAL alerts >= 0.50 over the 90-day forward window 2026-05-06 -> 2026-08-04, evaluated against existing PredictionLedger auto-matchers (USGS for Yellowstone/Long Valley/Aira, INGV for Campi Flegrei) with the standard per-model dynamic radius (Phase 65u-MATCHER) within prediction's valid_until window. Per-caldera Mc thresholds: Campi Flegrei 0.5, Yellowstone 2.0, Long Valley 2.0, Aira 1.0. parameters_pending_refit=True at lock time (literature priors for A_sigma_mpa, tau_a_days, etas_K/c/p/alpha, b-value); confidence capped at 0.70 in ledger. Null baseline: per-caldera Poisson at base_rate_per_day prior over the same 30-day window yields ~25% pooled match rate. Re-eval 2026-08-04. Disconfirming result is hypothesis-failing; <30% would indicate the literature priors are wrong direction. WITHDRAW criterion: if fewer than 5 HIGH+CRITICAL alerts fire across all 4 calderas over the 90-day window the test is underpowered; mark withdrawn and re-register with looser thresholds.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":720.0,"min_magnitude":0.5,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-06T14:57:44Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{},"method":"match_rate_per_caldera","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"match_rate","value":0.5},"title":"RS+ETAS caldera forecaster HIGH/CRITICAL alerts hit at >=50% over 90-day forward test","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-07-18T16:28:03Z","by":"Mljessop@Mike","from_status":"locked","reason":"INVALID TEST -- the instrument was broken for the entire forward window. fetch_uplift_rate_mm_yr pointed at the retired NGL IGS14 path (404 since the Jun 2026 IGS20 migration; this module was the one of six missed in commit 5ed76bf8), so every uplift fetch silently fell back to the 50 mm/yr literature prior. That froze uplift_mm_yr=50.0 and rs_amp=8.2652 identically across all 66 HIGH/CRITICAL rows -- above the CRITICAL threshold of 5.0 by pure arithmetic, so the forecaster emitted CRITICAL regardless of data. The alerts under test were therefore NOT produced by the deformation-driven RS+ETAS mechanism this hypothesis names. Live GPS (fixed 2026-07-18) gives Campi Flegrei -10.61 mm/yr (subsiding) and rs_amp 0.6388 -> NOMINAL, a 13x overstatement in the alarm-manufacturing direction. The observed ~91-95 pct match rate is further confounded by an always-on alarm against continuous bradyseismic unrest credited by an INGV matcher at minmag=1.5 (requiring M>=3.0 drops it to ~30 pct, M>=4.0 to ~8 pct). Neither passed nor failed: untestable as run. Superseded by a v2 forward test on live deformation with a magnitude floor and a coverage-null bar. Record preserved per Section 7 of the methodological-nulls bundle."},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":"2026-05-06"},{"data_source":"data/turbidite_paleoseism.db + data/prediction_ledger.db","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["pmf_paleoseismic_prior_per_year","pmf_paleoseismic_prior_n_paired","pmf_paleoseismic_prior_window_yr","pmf_paleoseismic_prior_db_backed","pmf_posterior_alert_prob_7d"],"git_commit_at_registration":"6a476ea98d04a5bf4c740cc0437cea8180bbdad0","hypothesis_id":"20260510_goldfinger_option_3_paired_megaf_9e4c90a0","locked_at":"2026-05-10T18:24:18Z","locked_file_sha256":"b23fe7679545ce870362b4f52154aa2dfb0e84921bf8d01aecdac7f55f0b780f","notes":"FORWARD test of Goldfinger Option #3: turbidite paleoseism DB ingest replaces literature 0.2%/yr prior with database-derived n=3-in-1500yr Poisson prior (per_year=0.002, 95%CL [0.0004, 0.0058]). Hypothesis: paired-megafault-detected predictions (model_name contains paired_megafault OR pmf_ OR region contains cascadia_san_andreas) over the 90-day forward window 2026-05-10 -> 2026-08-08 achieve match_rate >= 2x the unpaired baseline match_rate computed over same window across all earthquake.predictor models. Pass criterion: paired_match_rate / unpaired_match_rate >= 2.0 with at least 5 paired predictions in the window. WITHDRAW criterion: <5 paired predictions in window = underpowered. NULL outcome (ratio < 2x) is publishable -- would show paleoseismic prior provides no operational lift on top of metadata-only base score. Re-eval 2026-08-08.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":168.0,"min_magnitude":4.5,"type":"earthquake"},"registered_at":"2026-05-10T18:24:13Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{},"method":"match_rate_ratio_paired_vs_unpaired","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"match_rate_ratio","value":2.0},"title":"Goldfinger Option #3 paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost lifts paired-prediction match rate by >=2x over unpaired baseline","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-05-21T17:32:33Z","by":"Mljessop@Mike","from_status":"locked","reason":"Predictor companion not shipped at lock time -- the cross_physics/paired_megafault_monitor.py module was a tensor-feature builder + run_demo dumper only, with zero log_prediction() call sites and no cron entry.  Aug 8 evaluator on 2026-05-21 found paired_n=0 over 17 days of supposed forward window.  Re-registered as v2 (20260521_*) once cross_physics/paired_megafault_predictor.py + GATES_BY_MODEL entry + cron land in PR.  Underlying Goldfinger 2025 science unchanged; this is a tooling completion."},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":"2026-05-10"},{"data_source":"Sentinel-2 L2A via Microsoft Planetary Computer + IRIS FDSN 3-component + IRIS FDSN microseism","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["phc_kaolinite_score","phc_vegetation_chlorosis_score","phc_iron_oxide_score","phc_pol_em_deflection_score","phc_vertical_splitting_score","phc_composite_score_0_1"],"git_commit_at_registration":"8e6cd572aecd4fb7f8bbcafaf83dbd770218f931","hypothesis_id":"20260521_passive_hc_composite_v0_1_discri_94855e4f","locked_at":"2026-05-21T22:56:37Z","locked_file_sha256":"e996e596959088d6cf5042d6a29b4335d2b184ba41ef6af3f97df0c822d85e8b","notes":"PRE-REGISTERED FORWARD TEST.  Re-run scripts/backtest_passive_hc_composite.py on AX41 (Helsinki, 37.27.55.232) where polarization_em_monitor + spectral_splitting_monitor have full FDSN access (Windows-local test on 2026-05-21 only got 3 of 5 channels = sat_hsi only).  Pass criteria: (1) producer_mean_minus_control_mean >= 0.20 across the 8-site producer/control set (3 Hingeline producers: Covenant + Providence + Anschutz Ranch; 5 Basin-Range / off-fairway controls: Bonneville Salt Flats, GSL center, SLC urban, Sevier Lake basin axis, Park City Cu/Au district), AND (2) recall >= 60% at threshold 0.30 across the 3 producers.  RE-EVAL DATE: 2026-08-21 (90 days).  v0.1 Windows-partial baseline: delta=+0.107, recall=33%, FP=20% (effectively null).  Two dense-array candidate sites (Baker s0031 + Seeker s0002) also captured for descriptive context, not part of pass criteria.  If hypothesis tests NULL on AX41 full 5-channel: v0.2 with 50km radius regional anomaly normalization on sat_hsi matched-filter scores is the next iteration.  References: Moulton & Pinnell 2005 OGJ; Chidsey et al. 2007 UGA Pub 36; Floyd_Moulton-2.pdf (100% pre-drill dry-hole prediction by Radiometric Plus across 11 Utah Overthrust wells).  Backtest output JSON in data/backtest_passive_hc_composite_*.json.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"oil_gas_surface_signature"},"registered_at":"2026-05-21T22:56:16Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{},"method":"10_site_hingeline_backtest_v0_1","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"producer_mean_minus_control_mean","value":0.2},"title":"Passive HC composite v0.1 discriminates Central Utah Thrust Belt producers from Basin-Range controls on AX41 5-channel re-run","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-05-21T23:22:45Z","by":"Mljessop@Mike","from_status":"locked","reason":"UNDERPOWERED. AX41 backtest 2026-05-21T23:09Z revealed mss (spectral_splitting_monitor) returned data_real=0 at all 10 sites despite the hypothesis explicitly requiring full FDSN access for both pol_em + mss. Only 4 of 5 channels actually fired. The headline +0.259 producer-control mean delta passes the locked +0.20 threshold, but the result is fragile: Anschutz Ranch's 0.955 composite is a low-n geomean artifact (3 of 5 channels = sat_hsi saturated, both EM channels dead). Excluding Anschutz: producer mean 0.46, control mean 0.37, delta +0.09 -- below threshold. False-positive rate 60% at threshold 0.30 (Sevier Lake basin axis + Park City porphyry + GSL center all fire) confirms the v0.1 composite cannot discriminate HC microseepage kaolinite from natural background kaolinite. Re-registering as v0.2 with 50km radius regional anomaly normalization on sat_hsi matched-filter scores (the canonical Moulton Radiometric Plus approach to background subtraction). Withdrawn locked v0.1 JSON (file sha256 2b6cb590c961a90a860f47491f514d978f20ea923642fb63971b4c159f6ed114) + .ots Bitcoin anchor preserved in hypotheses/withdrawn/ per registry convention. Per CLAUDE.md Phase 65u-RIGOR."},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-21"},{"data_source":"NWIS IV discharge (00060) at gauges within 5 km of FDSN stations; Burtin 2008 turbulent-river-noise physics","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["fluvial_seismic_band_power","3tier_archive_16hz","station_river_distance"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7f0bdc5947dcd2af31042f962abd58e4810fe344","hypothesis_id":"20260708_vq32_virtual_stream_gauge_from_f_4f88fc9e","locked_at":"2026-07-08T22:04:24Z","locked_file_sha256":"e7b8283c2e66af0130e6d1e75d9f37ffabc222a169a2fc320fa78644c20c1cc5","notes":"CONFIRMATORY, registered before running. Seismic band power at river-adjacent stations vs co-located NWIS discharge. PASS = Spearman rho >= 0.60 at >=50% of qualifying pairs AND beats seasonal-climatology baseline. WITHDRAW if <5 qualifying station-gauge pairs exist (geometry risk is the known unknown -- honest underpowered outcome). Hook: USGS decommissions gauges over budget; a validated virtual gauge fills retired sites. Re-eval 2026-08-15.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"river_discharge"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-08T22:04:09Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"seasonal_climatology","mode":"per_pair_rank_correlation","pass_criteria":{"min_frac_pairs_passing":0.5,"min_n_pairs":5,"min_spearman_rho":0.6}},"method":"vq_validation_harness.validate_series","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"spearman_rho","value":0.6},"title":"VQ32 virtual stream gauge from fluvial seismic noise vs co-located NWIS","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-07-08T22:59:38Z","by":"Mljessop@Mike","from_status":"locked","reason":"Pre-specified underpowered clause: 5 geometric pairs found but UU.LTU gauge (10126180) aligned 0 hours -> 4 surviving pairs < locked minimum 5. Of the 4 that ran, 0 passed -- even RE.EACA at 0.6 km showed raw rho 0.202 collapsing to -0.045 after the pre-stated cubic detrend: the correlation was the shared seasonal runoff trend, exactly what the climatology rule was built to catch. PHYSICS: fluvial seismic noise detections (Burtin 2008) are on large turbulent rivers; small UT/WA/AK creeks (10-100 cfs) do not lift 1-7 Hz power above ambient at 0.6-4 km. A v2 would pair stations with MAJOR rivers (Colorado/Snake/Columbia class) -- separate future registration."},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"data/world_stress_map/wsm2016.csv (A-C quality records in regions where input channels are data_real)","expected_direction":"negative","feature_set":["anv_anisotropy_vector","grp_gravity_fault_strike","focal_mechanisms","soc_shmax_regional"],"git_commit_at_registration":"7f0bdc5947dcd2af31042f962abd58e4810fe344","hypothesis_id":"20260708_vq36_stress_rosette_predicts_hel_2f807511","locked_at":"2026-07-08T22:04:24Z","locked_file_sha256":"99476caad7d5a12bbc1735789808a619ce9188fa717dd7c88552c6d6620c7071","notes":"CONFIRMATORY, registered before running. PASS = held-out circular MAE <= 30 deg AND beats nearest-WSM-neighbor baseline >=10% with bootstrap ci_lo>0. HONEST SCOPE: validated only where anv_/grp_ inputs are real (gravity grid = NW Utah; anisotropy = station-dependent) -> expected outcome may be REGIONAL instrument, scope-reduction is a valid partial. WITHDRAW if <30 usable held-out sites (underpowered). Re-eval 2026-08-15.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":null,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"stress_orientation"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-08-15","registered_at":"2026-07-08T22:03:45Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{"baseline":"nearest_wsm_neighbor_azimuth","block_deg":1.0,"k_folds":5,"metric":"circular_mae_deg","pass_criteria":{"max_circular_mae_deg":30,"min_n_sites":30,"min_skill_vs_nearest_wsm":0.1}},"method":"vq_validation_harness.validate_spatial","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"negative","metric":"circular_mae_deg","value":30.0},"title":"VQ36 stress rosette predicts held-out WSM SHmax azimuth","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-07-08T22:26:45Z","by":"Mljessop@Mike","from_status":"locked","reason":"Pre-specified withdraw clause fired: only 22 A-C WSM sites where input channels are real (3 in UGS gravity-grid box + 19 within 50km of anv_ prewarm sites) vs locked minimum 30 -> UNDERPOWERED. Audit also found stress_orientation_calibration.py READS WSM, so the locked soc_shmax_regional covariate would have been circular (target leakage) and required exclusion regardless. A v2 with NATIONAL covariates (qfault orientation density, focal mechanisms) is a separate future registration."},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":"2026-08-15"},{"data_source":"prediction_ledger.db (model_name=imminent_convergence_72h) vs bounds-first USGS/EMSC matching","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["n_converged_models","cross_model_corroboration"],"git_commit_at_registration":"44468e1efb48bf9b453b70a93f15fbea4493440f","hypothesis_id":"20260712_imminent_convergence_72h_forward_4ec47bcd","locked_at":"2026-07-12T00:08:51Z","locked_file_sha256":"89007057e622215fd3216bef4c5f5f1a83ee0b79819d3f3f597221a47063d8a3","notes":"Forward test of the imminent-convergence 72h tier shipped 2026-07-11 (commit 44468e1e). Trigger rule: >=4 DISTINCT models holding active in-window HIGH/CRITICAL EQ forecasts on the same region simultaneously -> ONE scored 72h prediction per region per episode. PASS: resolved hit rate >= 70% at n >= 30 resolved predictions over the first 90 days. Backtest basis (60d, dedup region+day): 77.8% hit-within-72h at 1.4 triggers/day; the >=3+CRITICAL alternative measured ANTI-selective (62.1% vs 69.9% baseline) and was dropped pre-launch. UNDERPOWERED if n < 30 by re-eval: extend 90 more days rather than judge early. Honest context: constituent 7-day HIGH/CRIT base runs ~79% lonely / 95% at 3+ models over the FULL 7d window; this tier claims the shorter 72h window at higher selectivity. Re-eval 2026-10-11 (or later date if underpowered).","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":72.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-10","registered_at":"2026-07-12T00:08:36Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{},"method":"resolved_hit_rate","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"resolved_hit_rate_pct","value":70.0},"title":"imminent_convergence_72h forward test: >=70% resolved hit rate","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-07-12T00:18:17Z","by":"Mljessop@Mike","from_status":"locked","reason":"Superseded pre-launch, zero data accrued: Mike directed shadow-mode testing before any public exposure, so the tier records to a private shadow ledger (data/imminent_shadow.jsonl) instead of prediction_ledger.db. Re-registered as v2 with the shadow data source + --evaluate USGS scoring; metric, threshold (>=70% at n>=30), and 90-day window unchanged."},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":"2026-10-11"},{"data_source":"USGS FDSN declustered M5+ onsets + data/escalation_shadow.jsonl","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["max_early_mag_ratio","rate_accel_late_over_early","n_early"],"git_commit_at_registration":"4135e7b7cdf2ae8002b145ade16a8a2cc0764aa7","hypothesis_id":"20260715_24h_escalation_shadow_tier_forwa_b5e93582","locked_at":"2026-07-15T01:15:23Z","locked_file_sha256":"4e0a57f378fa455126f2c7e5b476c582383255b29fd405bf02c49c0a378f3fea","notes":"SHADOW-only 24h escalation rung (scripts/escalation_shadow_predictor.py, model escalation_shadow_24h). PASS = forward precision >= 0.15 AND lift >= 2.0x over the study base rate 0.084 (>= 0.168), at n >= 30 RESOLVED flags. WITHDRAW if < 15 resolved by re-eval. In-sample: precision 0.2231 = 2.66x base on n_train=595. Never touches the public ledger; promote to a public 24h tier only on PASS. Companion to the 72h imminent pre-reg 20260712_v2..a3f748c7 and the 10h microseism pre-reg 20260701..47d7b6f5.","ots_proof_path":null,"outcome":{"lookahead_hours":480.0,"min_magnitude":null,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-11","registered_at":"2026-07-15T01:15:10Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Mike","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{},"method":"forward out-of-sample precision of escalation_shadow_24h flags (p>=0.6); a flag HITS iff a subsequent event >= trigger_mag-0.05 occurs within the Wells-Coppersmith radius during the 20-day window","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"precision","value":0.15},"title":"24h escalation shadow tier forward precision","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-07-19T02:34:50Z","by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","from_status":"locked","reason":"INVALID TEST, not a failed one. Two defects in the instrument were found on 2026-07-18, both inside the forward window. (1) decluster_onsets sized its aftershock-exclusion radius from the trigger magnitude instead of the preceding events, so aftershocks were admitted as sequence onsets: 4 of the 7 distinct flags logged under this lock were aftershocks, three of them within 1.2h of a single M7.3 off Puerto Madero. (2) The calibration was fit on study onsets selected the same way, so its 8.4pct base rate was inflated by aftershock sequences whose later events trivially exceeded a small trigger. Corrected: GK74 windows sized by the preceding event, study re-run (1817 triggers to 1453 onsets, 523 usable sequences, base rate 5.0pct), calibration re-fit (threshold 0.60, in-sample precision 0.146 = 2.9x base). The locked test measured a model that no longer exists; the 8 records are quarantined to escalation_shadow_PRE_DECLUSTER_FIX.jsonl and excluded from any forward record. Superseded by the v3 registration."},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":null},{"data_source":"USGS FDSN M5+ triggers, GK74-declustered onsets; escalation_shadow.jsonl","expected_direction":"positive","feature_set":["max_early_mag_ratio","rate_accel_late_over_early","n_early"],"git_commit_at_registration":"c11db10eff8dff0ed9bc5cf2f7ec85049d43e2c8","hypothesis_id":"20260719_v3_24h_escalation_shadow_tier_fo_df265de9","locked_at":"2026-07-19T02:35:24Z","locked_file_sha256":"56b245fdd55bb9aa60d7934cbbb00c1a9dc6897a646b7d6893f135c9a843fdbe","notes":"Supersedes 20260715_24h_escalation_shadow_tier_forwa_b5e93582, withdrawn as an INVALID test after two instrument defects were found inside its window (aftershocks admitted as onsets; calibration fit on the same contaminated onsets). Instrument now: decluster_onsets uses Gardner-Knopoff 1974 windows sized by the PRECEDING event; calibration re-fit on the corrected 4-year study (1817 triggers -> 1453 onsets -> 523 usable sequences, 26 escalations = 5.0 pct base rate), threshold 0.60, in-sample precision 0.146 = 2.9x base, recall 0.577, fires 103/523. PASS = forward precision >= 0.10 (2x base) at n >= 30 resolved flags. Below 30 resolved by the re-eval date the test is UNDERPOWERED and re-registers rather than reporting. A null is publishable. SHADOW ONLY: private jsonl plus email, nothing on the public ledger or site. The 8 pre-fix records are quarantined and excluded. Honest caveat: the calibration is in-sample and the dominant coefficient is max_early_mag_ratio (0.877 standardized) so the flag is close to a calibrated comparable-magnitude detector; the study base rate itself dropped from 8.4 to 5.0 pct once aftershock sequences stopped being counted as escalations, which is the size of the contamination this replaces. re-eval 2026-10-16","ots_proof_path":"hypotheses/locked/20260719_v3_24h_escalation_shadow_tier_fo_df265de9.json.ots","outcome":{"lookahead_hours":24.0,"min_magnitude":5.0,"type":"earthquake"},"reevaluate_at":"2026-10-17","registered_at":"2026-07-19T02:35:11Z","registered_by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","result":null,"status":"withdrawn","test":{"extra":{},"method":"forward out-of-sample precision of the shadow flag at threshold 0.60","n_permutations":null},"threshold":{"direction":"positive","metric":"precision","value":0.1},"title":"v3 24h escalation shadow tier forward test (post decluster fix)","withdrawn":{"at":"2026-07-22T15:58:05Z","by":"Mljessop@Ubuntu-2404-noble-amd64-base","from_status":"locked","reason":"Underpowered by instrument, not by hypothesis. Two independent population limits measured 2026-07-22: (1) only 5 percent of global M5+ onsets have >=3 delivering stations within 300 km, and outside that the public M2.5+ catalogue is too sparse for early_features; (2) a train/serve skew -- the calibration was fitted on settled catalogues (37 percent usable) but the tier serves at 24-96h on provisional ones (13 percent usable). Neither permits n=30 by the 2026-10-16 re-evaluation. See reports/methodological_nulls/escalation_tier_population_limits.md"},"_ots_anchored":true,"_status_dir":"withdrawn","_re_eval_date":"2026-10-16"}],"totals":{"locked":82,"tested":33,"withdrawn":9,"ots_anchored":115}}