Forbush chain solar
CME strikes the magnetosphere, cosmic-ray flux drops, ionospheric conductivity changes, telluric currents shift, subsurface resistivity perturbs, fluid-filled fractures move.
CME → Forbush decrease → ionospheric conductivity
→ telluric current → MT impedance
→ resistivity change → fluid migration
What it predicts: 1-2 hour advance warning of geomagnetic storms; precursor signal for some earthquakes.
Earthquake precursor chain seismic
Stress accumulation opens microcracks, Schumann resonance shifts, electromagnetic pulses appear, telluric currents change, ambient noise velocity dv/v rises, then the main event.
stress loading → dilatancy
→ Schumann SR shift → EM / VLF pulse
→ dv/v increase → foreshock swarm → M+
What it predicts: days-to-weeks advance probability of M4+ events; validated against 2020 M5.7 Magna with +92.8% RMS at UU.BMUT 7 days prior.
Tidal-seismic chain tidal
Lunar + solar gravity deform the crust by ~10 cm at semidiurnal rate, adjusting fluid pressures on pre-stressed faults. Some earthquakes cluster at specific tidal phases.
ephemeris → solid Earth tide → crustal flexure
→ pore-pressure modulation → Coulomb stress
→ preferred tidal phase firing
What it predicts: time-of-day windows of elevated earthquake probability on tidally-sensitive faults.
Volcanic eruption chain fluid
Magma ascent opens fractures, gas exsolves, volcanic tremor begins (0.5-5 Hz), SO&sub2; flux rises, thermal anomaly appears on MODIS, surface deformation increases on InSAR.
magma ascent → VT earthquakes → tremor onset
→ SO&sub2; TROPOMI rise → MODIS thermal anomaly
→ InSAR inflation → eruption
What it predicts: hours-to-days eruption imminence at monitored volcanoes; drives our new volcanic_tremor_detector narrow product.
Natural-hydrogen seepage chain fluid
Deep-seated serpentinization releases H&sub2; gas that rises along fault systems, producing measurable soil-gas anomalies, atmospheric perturbations, and pressure waves.
serpentinization → H&sub2; generation
→ fault-bound upward migration → soil-gas anomaly
→ low-freq pressure wave → skyquake candidate
What it predicts: natural-hydrogen exploration targets AND one of the hypotheses for unexplained skyquake events.
Cosmic-ray weather chain solar
Galactic cosmic rays modulated by solar activity ionize the lower atmosphere, seeding cloud condensation nuclei and influencing weather patterns at multi-day scales.
solar modulation → GCR flux at Earth
→ tropospheric ionization → CCN nucleation
→ cloud cover anomaly → precipitation shift
What it predicts: multi-day weather anomalies tied to solar cycle phase.
Sinkhole collapse chain fluid
Karst void grows as groundwater dissolves carbonate rock, surface loses support, ambient seismic noise dv/v drops, InSAR subsidence accelerates, collapse.
karst dissolution → void growth
→ dv/v decrease → InSAR subsidence
→ surface fracturing → catastrophic collapse
What it predicts: weeks-to-months advance warning of sinkhole collapses in monitored karst zones.
Null-signature skyquake chain null
Atmospheric pressure wave recorded on infrasound with no bolide, no earthquake, no lightning, no supersonic aircraft, no volcano. Residual = skyquake_unknown.
infrasound detection → NASA CNEOS ∅ → USGS ∅
→ Blitzortung ∅ → OpenSky ∅ → GVP ∅
→ residual = skyquake_unknown
What it predicts: classification of the 1,200 unexplained atmospheric events cataloged 2010-2024. Extended to mystery booms, anomalous waves, magnetic pulses.