Forbush chain solar
CME strikes the magnetosphere, cosmic-ray flux drops, ionospheric conductivity changes, telluric currents shift, subsurface resistivity perturbs, fluid-filled fractures move.
CME → Forbush decrease → ionospheric conductivity
→ telluric current → MT impedance
→ resistivity change → fluid migration
What it predicts: 1-2 hour advance warning of geomagnetic storms. Research direction: whether this chain has any link to earthquakes is an open question we are studying.
Earthquake precursor chain seismic
Stress accumulation opens microcracks, Schumann resonance shifts, electromagnetic pulses appear, telluric currents change, then the main event.
stress loading → dilatancy
→ Schumann SR shift → EM / VLF pulse
→ foreshock swarm → M+
Research direction: whether any of these signals reliably comes before earthquakes is an open question we are studying. It is not a forecast. (A seismic-velocity-change step is paused pending revalidation.)
Tidal-seismic chain tidal
Lunar + solar gravity deform the crust by ~10 cm at semidiurnal rate, adjusting fluid pressures on pre-stressed faults. Some earthquakes cluster at specific tidal phases.
ephemeris → solid Earth tide → crustal flexure
→ pore-pressure modulation → Coulomb stress
→ preferred tidal phase firing
What it predicts: time-of-day windows of elevated earthquake probability on tidally-sensitive faults.
Volcanic eruption chain fluid
Magma ascent opens fractures, gas exsolves, volcanic tremor begins (0.5-5 Hz), SO2 flux rises, thermal anomaly appears on MODIS, surface deformation increases on InSAR.
magma ascent → VT earthquakes → tremor onset
→ SO2 TROPOMI rise → MODIS thermal anomaly
→ InSAR inflation → eruption
Research direction: whether this sequence can show that an eruption is approaching at a monitored volcano is an open question we are studying, not a forecast. Our volcanic tremor detector reports tremor as it happens: a detection, not a forecast.
Cosmic-ray weather chain solar
Galactic cosmic rays modulated by solar activity ionize the lower atmosphere, seeding cloud condensation nuclei and influencing weather patterns at multi-day scales.
solar modulation → GCR flux at Earth
→ tropospheric ionization → CCN nucleation
→ cloud cover anomaly → precipitation shift
What it predicts: multi-day weather anomalies tied to solar cycle phase.
Sinkhole collapse chain fluid
Karst void grows as groundwater dissolves carbonate rock, surface loses support, InSAR subsidence accelerates, collapse.
karst dissolution → void growth
→ InSAR subsidence
→ surface fracturing → catastrophic collapse
Research direction: whether surface and subsurface signals can show a karst void growing toward collapse is an open question we are studying. It is not a warning service. (A seismic-velocity-change step is paused pending revalidation.)
Null-signature skyquake chain null
Atmospheric pressure wave recorded on infrasound with no bolide, no earthquake, no lightning, no supersonic aircraft, no volcano. Residual = skyquake_unknown.
infrasound detection → NASA CNEOS ∅ → USGS ∅
→ Blitzortung ∅ → OpenSky ∅ → GVP ∅
→ residual = skyquake_unknown
What it predicts: classification of the 1,200 unexplained atmospheric events cataloged 2010-2024. Extended to mystery booms, anomalous waves, magnetic pulses.