ETAS Aftershock Forecaster
Aftershock count + magnitude + spatial envelope on any M5+ mainshock within 60 seconds. 70-90% real-world skill target by construction.
What it does
When any M5+ global mainshock fires, produces an aftershock forecast within 60 seconds: expected count of M3+ / M4+ / M5+ aftershocks over the next 24 h / 7 d / 30 d, expected largest aftershock magnitude, spatial extent of the dispersal field in km, and magnitude-frequency distribution.
Physics basis
Combines Omori's law for temporal decay, Gutenberg-Richter for magnitude distribution, Wells-Coppersmith for rupture geometry, and Bath's law for largest-aftershock expectation. Reasenberg-Jones 1989 global defaults (a=-1.67, b=0.91, c=0.05, p=1.08) are the bedrock; per-region calibration refines them as data accumulates.
When it fires
Automatic on every USGS-confirmed M>=5 mainshock globally. Logs to ledger as earthquake prediction centered on epicenter, valid 7 days.
What the customer receives
- Real-time webhook POST of forecast within 60 seconds of mainshock
- Expected aftershock counts at M3+/M4+/M5+ for 24h/7d/30d
- Expected largest-aftershock magnitude + 95% CI
- Spatial extent km + rupture-geometry ellipse
- Optional refinement every 6 hours as real aftershocks arrive
Operational numbers (live)
Engagement paths
Per-query, subscription, territorial-exclusive, and royalty-on-find structures are all available. Specific commercial terms are scoped after a technical-fit conversation.
Honest caveats
- Skill range reflects the literature consensus on Reasenberg-Jones globally; specific regions may score outside the range depending on local tectonics.
- Not a tsunami forecaster; the underlying physics is seismic-energy release, not seafloor displacement.
- Forecasts are probability distributions, not point predictions; consume them as parametric-insurance triggers, not as deterministic outcomes.
Michael Jessop — michael@deepmapai.com · partner portal