Public research preview · Pre-commercial · No SLA

A three-step magnitude forecast, logged in public.

A research preview. Each region can log a magnitude forecast 7 days out, a tighter one at 36 hours and a tighter one at 24 hours, each with an expected magnitude band and a hash-chained audit trail. So far the more confident tiers have matched less often, as the live numbers below show. Do not use it for operational decisions.

Why this page is free. We are publishing live cascade telemetry before we sell it. Buyers in regulated industries (insurance, semiconductors, rail) require a defensible track record before they can rely on a forecast. The only way to build that is to log every prediction in public, let external researchers audit the hash chain, and let the numbers speak for themselves. No SLA, no paging, no phone tree. Join the industrial waitlist to be contacted when the commercial tier opens.

Model: magnitude_range_predictor_v1. We quote no accuracy figure for it. Band width starts at M0.5 per region and auto-narrows to M0.25 once the region accumulates ≥ 30 matched observations with robust residual σ ≤ 0.30. Endpoint: /api/v1/research/magnitude-cascade.

Loading cascade telemetry…

Per-region activity (top 10 by cascade volume)

Each region independently decides whether to fire T-7d, T-36h, and T-24h based on its own confidence score. "Tiers fired" shows which cascade levels the region has actually triggered in the current window: the progression itself is the evidence.

Region	Total emitted	Matched obs	Region coverage	Tiers fired	Band width
Reading ledger…

What this page is (and isn’t)

Is: a per-region, per-tier ledger of exactly what DeepMap AI emitted, when, and at what confidence: with a hash-chained audit trail so any buyer can verify the tightening happened in real time. Each tier carries an expected magnitude band (M0.5 by default), a point estimate, a 95% CI, and a SHA-256 link to the prior prediction in the chain.

Isn’t: a claim that every region fires all three tiers. The cascade only tightens when the Phase 6 classifier confidence crosses 0.75 (T-36h) and 0.85 (T-24h). Many regions will sit at T-7d for long windows and never promote: that’s the system refusing to over-commit. The graduation of a region to M0.25 band width only happens after the observed residual sigma proves the tighter band is supportable; we don’t narrow by fiat.

Reference: calibration: Wells & Coppersmith, 1994, New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, BSSA 84(4). Region ceilings derived from region-specific maximum instrumental magnitudes (USGS Unified Catalog 1900–present).