Predictions Market Markets

Categories - Earthquake

Categories - Volcano

Categories - Tsunami

Categories - Severe Weather

Categories - Flood

Pricing

Output Formats

polymarket (outcome_yes / outcome_no as float 0-1), kalshi (yes_price_cents / no_price_cents as int 1-99), chainlink_uint256 (probability * 10000 as uint256)

Methodology

Data Sources

USGS Earthquake Catalog, USGS Volcano Hazards Program, NOAA PTWC/NTWC (tsunami), NOAA NWS Alerts, NOAA SWDI (tornado/hail/wind), NOAA NWPS River Gauges, Open-Meteo Global Weather, GloFAS Global Flood Forecasts, DeepMap AI ML Models (60+)

{
  "categories": {
    "earthquake": {
      "name": "Earthquake Events",
      "question_templates": [
        "M{threshold}+ earthquake in {region} within {days} days"
      ],
      "time_horizons_days": [
        1,
        3,
        7,
        14,
        30
      ],
      "regions": [
        "california",
        "cascadia",
        "alaska",
        "japan",
        "mexico",
        "mediterranean",
        "indonesia",
        "chile",
        "new_madrid",
        "wasatch",
        "oklahoma"
      ],
      "magnitude_thresholds": [
        3.0,
        4.0,
        5.0,
        6.0,
        7.0
      ]
    },
    "volcano": {
      "name": "Volcanic Activity",
      "question_templates": [
        "Eruption/unrest at {volcano} within {days} days"
      ],
      "time_horizons_days": [
        7,
        14,
        30,
        90
      ],
      "volcanoes": [
        "kilauea",
        "popocatepetl",
        "etna",
        "fuego",
        "merapi",
        "sakurajima"
      ]
    },
    "tsunami": {
      "name": "Tsunami Events",
      "question_templates": [
        "Tsunami advisory/warning in {zone} within {days} days"
      ],
      "time_horizons_days": [
        7,
        30,
        90
      ],
      "zones": [
        "pacific_nw",
        "alaska_aleutian",
        "japan",
        "indonesia",
        "chile",
        "mediterranean"
      ]
    },
    "severe_weather": {
      "name": "Severe Weather",
      "question_templates": [
        "Severe weather event (tornado/hail/wind) near {lat},{lon} within {days} days"
      ],
      "time_horizons_days": [
        1,
        3,
        7
      ]
    },
    "flood": {
      "name": "Flood Events",
      "question_templates": [
        "Flood stage exceedance near {lat},{lon} within {days} days"
      ],
      "time_horizons_days": [
        3,
        7,
        14,
        30
      ]
    }
  },
  "total_categories": 5,
  "pricing": {
    "oracle_query": "$0.50/query",
    "batch_query": "$0.25/question",
    "resolve_query": "$0.25/query",
    "markets_list": "free",
    "health_check": "free",
    "track_record": "free"
  },
  "output_formats": [
    "polymarket (outcome_yes / outcome_no as float 0-1)",
    "kalshi (yes_price_cents / no_price_cents as int 1-99)",
    "chainlink_uint256 (probability * 10000 as uint256)"
  ],
  "methodology": {
    "base_rates": "Gutenberg-Richter (earthquake), alert mapping (volcano), recurrence database (tsunami), climatology (weather/flood)",
    "risk_adjustment": "ML risk modifier from 60+ models, 400+ features",
    "probability_model": "Poisson (P = 1 - exp(-lambda*T))",
    "calibration": "Risk-adjusted rate via DeepMap AI ensemble predictions",
    "confidence_intervals": "Wilson score interval",
    "tamper_proof": "SHA-256 hashed predictions logged to cryptographic ledger"
  },
  "data_sources": [
    "USGS Earthquake Catalog",
    "USGS Volcano Hazards Program",
    "NOAA PTWC/NTWC (tsunami)",
    "NOAA NWS Alerts",
    "NOAA SWDI (tornado/hail/wind)",
    "NOAA NWPS River Gauges",
    "Open-Meteo Global Weather",
    "GloFAS Global Flood Forecasts",
    "DeepMap AI ML Models (60+)"
  ]
}