Finance Municipal Credit Ratings Methodology

Score To Rating Map - Aaa

Score To Rating Map - Aa+

Score To Rating Map - Aa

Score To Rating Map - Aa-

Score To Rating Map - A+

Score To Rating Map - A

Score To Rating Map - A-

Score To Rating Map - Bbb+

Score To Rating Map - Bbb

Score To Rating Map - Bbb-

Score To Rating Map - Bb+

Score To Rating Map - Bb

Score To Rating Map - B+

Score To Rating Map - B

Score To Rating Map - Ccc

Score To Rating Map - Cc

Component Weights - Geohazard Exposure

Component Weights - Fiscal Resilience

Component Weights - Infrastructure Stress

Component Weights - Climate Vulnerability

Component Weights - Climate Migration

Component Weights - Insurance Burden

Hazard Types And Weights - Flood

Hazard Types And Weights - Hurricane

Hazard Types And Weights - Wildfire

Hazard Types And Weights - Earthquake

Hazard Types And Weights - Tornado

Hazard Types And Weights - Sinkhole

Hazard Types And Weights - Landslide

Hazard Types And Weights - Volcanic

Data Sources

DeepMap GeoRisk Composite (8-component multi-hazard), US Census Bureau (population, demographics, trends), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) -- regional economics, ASCE Infrastructure Report Card (condition benchmarks), IPCC AR6 WG1 (climate projections, SSP scenarios), DeepMap Climate Migration Model (proprietary), FEMA NFIP (flood insurance participation, claims), DeepMap Weather Intelligence (Open-Meteo, GloFAS, NWS, NWPS, SWDI), USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, NOAA Severe Weather Data Inventory

Limitations

Scores are modeled estimates, not direct financial analysis, Infrastructure age is estimated from regional averages, not asset inventories, Climate projections carry inherent uncertainty, Fiscal data is estimated unless actual budget/debt figures are provided, Not a substitute for a formal credit rating from S&P, Moody's, or Fitch, US-focused methodology; international municipalities require adaptation

Pricing

{
  "methodology_version": "1.0",
  "last_updated": "2026-03-01",
  "title": "DeepMap AI Municipal Credit Intelligence Methodology",
  "overview": "The DeepMap Municipal Credit Intelligence engine produces a physics-informed credit risk score (0-100) that maps to an S&P-equivalent implied rating. Unlike traditional credit analysis that relies primarily on financial statements, this methodology integrates actual geophysical hazard exposure, infrastructure condition, climate vulnerability, migration trends, and insurance market dynamics to produce a holistic credit assessment.",
  "score_to_rating_map": {
    "AAA": {
      "max_score": 10.0,
      "description": "Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "AA+": {
      "max_score": 18.0,
      "description": "Very strong capacity; minimal hazard exposure",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "AA": {
      "max_score": 25.0,
      "description": "Very strong capacity; low hazard exposure",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "AA-": {
      "max_score": 32.0,
      "description": "Very strong capacity; moderate-low hazard exposure",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "A+": {
      "max_score": 38.0,
      "description": "Strong capacity; some hazard sensitivity",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "A": {
      "max_score": 44.0,
      "description": "Strong capacity; moderate hazard sensitivity",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "A-": {
      "max_score": 50.0,
      "description": "Strong capacity; notable hazard sensitivity",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "BBB+": {
      "max_score": 56.0,
      "description": "Adequate capacity; material hazard exposure",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "BBB": {
      "max_score": 62.0,
      "description": "Adequate capacity; significant hazard exposure",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "BBB-": {
      "max_score": 68.0,
      "description": "Adequate capacity; high hazard exposure (investment grade floor)",
      "investment_grade": true
    },
    "BB+": {
      "max_score": 74.0,
      "description": "Speculative; elevated hazard or fiscal stress",
      "investment_grade": false
    },
    "BB": {
      "max_score": 80.0,
      "description": "Speculative; significant vulnerability",
      "investment_grade": false
    },
    "B+": {
      "max_score": 85.0,
      "description": "Highly speculative; major hazard concentration",
      "investment_grade": false
    },
    "B": {
      "max_score": 90.0,
      "description": "Highly speculative; extreme hazard exposure",
      "investment_grade": false
    },
    "CCC": {
      "max_score": 95.0,
      "description": "Substantial risk; dependent on favorable conditions",
      "investment_grade": false
    },
    "CC": {
      "max_score": 100.0,
      "description": "Near-default; active hazard or fiscal crisis",
      "investment_grade": false
    }
  },
  "component_weights": {
    "geohazard_exposure": {
      "weight": 0.3,
      "description": "Multi-hazard composite from 8 natural hazard types. Uses weighted-max algorithm: dominant hazard score + 0.3 * mean of remaining hazards. Flood receives highest weight (1.0) for municipal credit due to infrastructure and tax base impact."
    },
    "fiscal_resilience": {
      "weight": 0.25,
      "description": "Debt-to-revenue ratio, reserve fund adequacy, tax base diversity, and population trends. Actual financials used when provided; otherwise estimated from regional benchmarks."
    },
    "infrastructure_stress": {
      "weight": 0.18,
      "description": "Estimated water main age, road condition, bridge deficiency rate, and stormwater capacity. Aged infrastructure amplifies hazard vulnerability and capital expenditure pressure."
    },
    "climate_vulnerability": {
      "weight": 0.12,
      "description": "Sea level rise exposure, heat stress, drought risk, and precipitation change. Forward-looking assessment based on IPCC AR6 projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios."
    },
    "climate_migration": {
      "weight": 0.08,
      "description": "Net migration direction and 10-year population change projection driven by climate desirability factors. Outflows erode tax base; inflows increase demand pressure."
    },
    "insurance_burden": {
      "weight": 0.07,
      "description": "Per-capita hazard insurance estimate and trend. Rising insurance costs signal market recognition of risk and threaten property values and affordability."
    }
  },
  "hazard_types_and_weights": {
    "flood": {
      "weight": 1.0,
      "rank": 1
    },
    "hurricane": {
      "weight": 0.95,
      "rank": 2
    },
    "wildfire": {
      "weight": 0.9,
      "rank": 3
    },
    "earthquake": {
      "weight": 0.85,
      "rank": 4
    },
    "tornado": {
      "weight": 0.8,
      "rank": 5
    },
    "sinkhole": {
      "weight": 0.75,
      "rank": 6
    },
    "landslide": {
      "weight": 0.7,
      "rank": 7
    },
    "volcanic": {
      "weight": 0.5,
      "rank": 8
    }
  },
  "data_sources": [
    "DeepMap GeoRisk Composite (8-component multi-hazard)",
    "US Census Bureau (population, demographics, trends)",
    "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) -- regional economics",
    "ASCE Infrastructure Report Card (condition benchmarks)",
    "IPCC AR6 WG1 (climate projections, SSP scenarios)",
    "DeepMap Climate Migration Model (proprietary)",
    "FEMA NFIP (flood insurance participation, claims)",
    "DeepMap Weather Intelligence (Open-Meteo, GloFAS, NWS, NWPS, SWDI)",
    "USGS Earthquake Hazards Program",
    "NOAA Severe Weather Data Inventory"
  ],
  "climate_scenarios": {
    "SSP2-4.5": {
      "2030": {
        "flood_multiplier": 1.08,
        "wildfire_multiplier": 1.1,
        "hurricane_multiplier": 1.05,
        "heat_stress_multiplier": 1.12,
        "sea_level_rise_cm": 8,
        "drought_multiplier": 1.06
      },
      "2040": {
        "flood_multiplier": 1.18,
        "wildfire_multiplier": 1.22,
        "hurricane_multiplier": 1.1,
        "heat_stress_multiplier": 1.25,
        "sea_level_rise_cm": 18,
        "drought_multiplier": 1.14
      },
      "2050": {
        "flood_multiplier": 1.3,
        "wildfire_multiplier": 1.38,
        "hurricane_multiplier": 1.18,
        "heat_stress_multiplier": 1.42,
        "sea_level_rise_cm": 30,
        "drought_multiplier": 1.25
      }
    },
    "SSP5-8.5": {
      "2030": {
        "flood_multiplier": 1.12,
        "wildfire_multiplier": 1.15,
        "hurricane_multiplier": 1.08,
        "heat_stress_multiplier": 1.18,
        "sea_level_rise_cm": 12,
        "drought_multiplier": 1.1
      },
      "2040": {
        "flood_multiplier": 1.3,
        "wildfire_multiplier": 1.4,
        "hurricane_multiplier": 1.2,
        "heat_stress_multiplier": 1.45,
        "sea_level_rise_cm": 28,
        "drought_multiplier": 1.28
      },
      "2050": {
        "flood_multiplier": 1.55,
        "wildfire_multiplier": 1.72,
        "hurricane_multiplier": 1.35,
        "heat_stress_multiplier": 1.8,
        "sea_level_rise_cm": 50,
        "drought_multiplier": 1.48
      }
    }
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Scores are modeled estimates, not direct financial analysis",
    "Infrastructure age is estimated from regional averages, not asset inventories",
    "Climate projections carry inherent uncertainty",
    "Fiscal data is estimated unless actual budget/debt figures are provided",
    "Not a substitute for a formal credit rating from S&P, Moody's, or Fitch",
    "US-focused methodology; international municipalities require adaptation"
  ],
  "update_frequency": "Hazard data refreshed daily; methodology reviewed quarterly",
  "pricing": {
    "endpoint": "ratings-methodology",
    "cost_usd": 0.0,
    "cost_cents": 0
  }
}